Russian involvement in Syrian crisis

[Kshatriya87]

Maybe they've made a deal. "Lift sanctions, let us do what we want in Ukraine and we'll let you do what you want in Syria".

 

[gadeshi]

Maybe they've made a deal. "Lift sanctions, let us do what we want in Ukraine and we'll let you do what you want in Syria".

No.
Sanctions only influe on financial market, not on production.
So if they will remain it will stimulate import substitution and pro-western elite groups purgatory.


Отправлено с моего XT1080 через Tapatalk

 

[garg_bharat]

Rus did play well on the backfoot, but I bet Putin wouldn't want these situations in the first place. So, this round goes to Amerika , par khel abhi baki hai.

Do not assume Russia has left the field wide open to USA.
Russia is basically creating space for reconciliation.

Will Turkey invade to take advantage? I have doubts. If it does, it will put USA in a very uncomfortable position.

 

[garg_bharat]

Maybe they've made a deal. "Lift sanctions, let us do what we want in Ukraine and we'll let you do what you want in Syria".

There is no deal. Russians are reconciled to the sanctions. Russians are more affected by EU sanctions compared to American sanctions. As long as Merkel is in power, Russia has no hope.

Syria is a very complicated place. Russia is right to be very careful and reserved.

 

[sob]

It is not about money. Russia will continue with her presence and it can redeploy at short notice.

Russia has worked for a ceasefire in Syria. Obviously a lot of Russian troops are not required when ceasefire is holding well.

Russia has no peace keeping troops in Syria and does not intend to send such troops.

The price of oil is a needless comment.

War is fought on the foundation of money and men. Russian economy is in dire straits and no amount of sugar coating can hide that. Oil and Gas accounts for 60% of their GDP and if prices have come down by a third then you know where it hurts.

As I have said Putin is smart enough to know that limited objectives have been met

1. Showcasing Russian might, and
2. Propping up Assad. ( Replacing Assad is no more on the US menu).

So the only course of action for him is to wind down operations or risk getting bogged down in Syria.

 

[garg_bharat]

@sob, do not get the impression that Putin has abandoned Syria. far from it.

This likely is part of deal with USA, which stops Turkey from invading.

Russia cannot be bogged down in Syria easily. The actual fighting on the ground is by SAA and Shia militia from Iran and Iraq etc.

A Turkey invasion is complicated for Russia, as Russia can effectively attack from the North, not from South.

 

[Bahamut]

Russia force got their min objective in Syria to force a part of opposition to sign a deal with Assad ,there is no longer any need for them to be their .The ground force use to train the Syrian Army and now that they are in a better shape ,there is no need for them .

 

[garg_bharat]

The problems with Muslims is that they always resent non-Muslim presence. It becomes hard to tell friend from foe.

Long term presence is counter-productive.

Better is to come with full force, punish and withdraw.

American folly in Iraq and Afghanistan need not be repeated by Russia.

 

[Razor]

According to official sources the s-400 systems are going to stay in syria. @nirranj

 

[nirranj]

According to official sources the s-400 systems are going to stay in syria. @nirranj

Then effectively Russians will continue to control the airspace. So no foreign invasion possible. Putin really knows what he does... I think they will also have a permanent presence in the khmemim airbase and tortous port.

To compensate for the air power reduction with Russian redeployment, Syrian air force maybe supplied with few aircrafts.

 

[garg_bharat]

@nirranj, S400 cannot stop special ops. Airbase still needs to be secure.

There is a real drawdown of fighters and ships. This will reduce need of support staff and equipment. This means Russia expects much lower need of airpower at least in the short term.

Time is needed for the regime to consolidate its gains.

There is no point gaining more land, when regime's ability to hold it is doubtful.

 

[pmaitra]

The pullout is primarily of the ground forces. The air assets will remain. Most importantly, the S-400 ADS will remain.

SAA is on the outskirts of Palmyra. Hopefully, they will take it soon.

 

[nirranj]

@nirranj, S400 cannot stop special ops. Airbase still needs to be secure.

There is a real drawdown of fighters and ships. This will reduce need of support staff and equipment. This means Russia expects much lower need of airpower at least in the short term.

Time is needed for the regime to consolidate its gains.

There is no point gaining more land, when regime's ability to hold it is doubtful.

I understand that... But my point is about a full scale invasion, which requires air assault.

 

[pmaitra]

War is fought on the foundation of money and men. Russian economy is in dire straits and no amount of sugar coating can hide that. Oil and Gas accounts for 60% of their GDP and if prices have come down by a third then you know where it hurts.

As I have said Putin is smart enough to know that limited objectives have been met

1. Showcasing Russian might, and
2. Propping up Assad. ( Replacing Assad is no more on the US menu).

So the only course of action for him is to wind down operations or risk getting bogged down in Syria.

I will add one point to your two points. This campaign might actually draw potential customers for Russian missiles and airplanes.

 

[garg_bharat]

Russian economy is NOT in dire straits. This is completely wrong reading.

Russians have given contracts to Chinese and Indians to ensure oil production does not go down from sanctions.

The best indicator is auto production which has stabilized. There is a crash in European imports which was expected due to sanctions. Hyundai sales are stable.

This message board is full of Russia haters who simply ignore the data.

 

[garg_bharat]

Russians are working very hard on increasing agricultural production. people forget that they have to take Crimea and parts of Donbas also into consideration.

In comparison, India is yet to win any land and stabilize it (which requires huge amount of resources).

Russia does very well on many indicators which Indians can only dream about.

 

[garg_bharat]

The purpose of war is to win land. There is no other purpose. Diplomacy is the best way to keep status quo.

 

[garg_bharat]

I understand that... But my point is about a full scale invasion, which requires air assault.

Turkey does not need air assault. If security is weakened on the ground, then even a band of saboteurs can do immense damage.

I think Russia will ensure security of not only its bases, but also area surrounding.

So it is only a token withdrawal, to create political space for reconciliation. This is to force USA to keep its end.

If USA is unable to rein in Turkey, then USA basically becomes a marginal actor in Syria, and the game will be between Russia/Iran and Turkey/Saudi.

 

[Yumdoot]

State of Russian Economy is irrelevant for the Syrian War. Or even for that matter the Ukraine. Welcome to the world of the braves.

Russians have spent 5 million USD per day of their air war. Kalibr were another 1.2 million USD at unit cost. This is the cheapest and most effective way a war can and should be fought. Since not all days were bombing days and the Russians were in Syria for only about 6 months, the cost of the whole campaign comes to lesser than the life cycle cost of just 1 Rafales that we are ready to pay up.
Kalibr = 36*1.2 = 43.2
Ops = 6*30*5 = 900
Totaling = 943.2



Net result (Putin got to kill ISIS and Turkey with US by his side ) :
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...es-at-gates-of-Raqqa/articleshow/51411192.cms
ISIS opposition forces 'at gates of Raqqa'
Samuel Osborne | The Independent | Mar 15, 2016, 05.14 PM IST
Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces are moving closer to the gates of Raqqa, Isis's de-facto capital in Syria, reports say.

The armed groups, made up mostly of Kurds from the YPG and YPJ fighting units, along with Arabs and Christians, are now 20 miles from Raqqa, Sky News reports.

 

[Bahamut]

War is fought on the foundation of money and men. Russian economy is in dire straits and no amount of sugar coating can hide that. Oil and Gas accounts for 60% of their GDP and if prices have come down by a third then you know where it hurts.

As I have said Putin is smart enough to know that limited objectives have been met

1. Showcasing Russian might, and
2. Propping up Assad. ( Replacing Assad is no more on the US menu).

So the only course of action for him is to wind down operations or risk getting bogged down in Syria.

Your fact are incorrect ,they recent report from CBR oil and gas was responsible for 12% of GDP while IT in comparison is 10 %.They 60% is for export and is more then 10 year old.