Last year, the Russian automobile market grew by 58%, taking into account the supply of automobiles through parallel import channels. This is evidenced by statistics of the Committee of Automobile Manufacturers of the Association of European Businesses (AEB) in the Russian Federation...
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Chinese companies have divided the Russian automobile market among themselves. What will happen next Autoexpert Moseev: Chinese cars will become cheaper in the next three months
By
ANIKA
January 12, 2024
Last year, the Russian automobile market grew by 58%, taking into account the supply of automobiles through parallel import channels. This is evidenced by statistics of the Committee of Automobile Manufacturers of the Association of European Businesses (AEB) in the Russian Federation. Manufacturers and importers increased their sales by 36 percent compared to 2022, the worst year of the automobile market in the last 10 years.
According to the data received by the AEB Committee by obtaining application forms from manufacturers and official importers, 937 thousand new passenger and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in 2023. JSC “Passport Industrial Consulting” has other data – they are based on certificates of registration of cars with the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate – 1.13 million units.
Who swims in gold
At the end of the year, the leader among automobile companies was the domestic AvtoVAZ.It sold 352.5 thousand cars, which means an 87% increase compared to the previous year. It is followed by Chinese Haval and Chery with sales of 119 and 118 thousand cars, respectively. Haval sales increased more than 3.5 times compared to 2022. The Chery brand recorded a threefold increase.
In fourth place is the Geely brand, which shipped 84 thousand cars to Russian customers last year, compared to 24.4 thousand in 2022. It is followed by domestic GAZ with 56 thousand light commercial vehicles (33% increase on an annual basis).
Taking into account the sub-brands Exeed, Omoda and Jaecoo, according to market results, the Chery concern took second place in terms of sales volumes, right behind AvtoVAZ.
Total sales of the brands of this Chinese automobile giant reached 210.4 thousand cars. Another 138.5 thousand vehicles were sold under Great Wall Corporation’s Haval, Tank, GWM and Ora brands.
Best sellers
At the end of 2023, the ten most popular passenger cars in Russia included three Ladas and seven models of Chinese brands. Among the 25 best-selling cars, the Chinese have 21 cars.
According to the 12-month results, Granta and Niva took the first two places with 206.1 thousand cars and 90.2 thousand cars, respectively. This is followed by Haval Jolion (58.2 thousand cars) and Chery Tiggo 7 Pro (52.6 thousand cars).
Haval
Domestic Lada Vesta took fifth place. UAZ Patriot SUV was in 17th place.
The result is beyond expectations
The results for 2023 exceeded experts’ expectations. At the beginning of this year, the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee
guessNo more than 770 thousand cars will be sold in Russia, the actual result exceeded 1.1 million. The 2024 forecast will reach 1.3 million cars with an increase of 15 percent.
According to Oleg Moseev, founder of the Automarketer project, in reality the result may be higher:
“We can say that the outcome of 2023 is good, with the high prices continuing throughout the year, increasing borrowing costs and the decrease in parallel imports in the fourth quarter. It is clear that there will be a slight increase in 2024; “Car availability is higher, with sedans appearing that were in short supply last year.”
He added that negative factors include the low exchange rate of the ruble and high loan interest rates, which will not fall before the second half of the year.
Chinese cars will become cheaper
Due to the excess of Chinese cars imported to Russia and the increase in the cost of credit due to the Central Bank’s interest rate increase, prices will have to be reduced in the near future, which will be good news for customers, but bad for dealers. In addition, Moseev continues that Chinese automobile companies are preparing extremely ambitious plans for the Russian market for 2024.
“Chinese brands will have to fight for the consumer primarily through pricing policy. There is no longer a shortage and prices will need to be reduced or plans reduced to increase sales. And if you add up all the plans of Chinese automakers for 2024, it turns out that they want to sell 1.3 million cars,” explains the expert.
Moseev believes that we should expect discounts on these cars from dealers in the first quarter of next year, and if there is no significant increase in the exchange rate in the second quarter, we will see price adjustments on the part of distributors.
“The price of Chinese cars already included high margins and now they can sacrifice some of that. Dealers and automakers already offer discounts, except for domestic discounts, which have a different status, said Igor Morzharetto, partner of the analytical agency Autostat.
He adds that there is no room for increasing prices: dealers of Chinese brands already have 200 thousand unsold cars that need to be sold. According to their estimates, 1.2-1.3 million new passenger cars will be sold in Russia in 2024, taking into account the need to renew the fleet.
In 2023, new car sales in Russia exceeded 1.1 million. In terms of sales volume, Chinese brands Haval, Chery and Geely were only ahead of the domestic Lada. Chinese automobile companies have prepared extremely ambitious plans for the Russian market for 2024, but experts believe that despite the growth of the Russian automobile market, Chinese brands will have to fight for consumers.
Source: Gazeta
