Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

fulcrum

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tell me one thing.
are you going to live in mumbai if only part of city was nuked and not the entire city?
"hey its fine, just one part mumbai was nuked, few millions died, thats all"

what about aftermath effects? blast may not destroy entire city but who would stop radiation?

if Pakistan say had 15KT weapon, there is no way i would assume that destroying some part of Mumbai is ok but destroying whole of mumbai with a megaton nuke is not ok for my country. Both are going to equally disastrous for long period. The very threat of nuclear war with our economies damages long term economic prospects. we cannot even dream to become just an economic power. Lord knows how much India already loses because we have disputes with our neighbours.

forget about nuclear war, conventional war fought for long time is more than enough to the all the damage to the countries prosperity and future.

Are we risking all this for what?
Disputed land in border areas where most of it is grazing land serving the cattle? and few isolated tribes here and there who simply don't care as to what happens with rest of India or with India & China.
Hiroshima and nagasaki was also bombed, now we have people living there on the very ground which was bombed(there is a new shopping complex there just FYI).. why is that? The radiation is only temporary. The fallouts will get washed away in the next 3 or 4 monsoons. Fallouts are nothing but radiation traces from products of the fission stage. They are not some mumbo jumbo evil thing. With proper understanding and anti-radiation measures, they can be cleared.


and what did Soviets & US managed to achieve with building thousands of nukes? what an amazing achievement, Soviets & US can destroy the planet again and again. Is this what taxpayers expect from govt.

They wasted so much money in testing, building all those weapons. It would probably pay for welfare of millions of families for generations. Not a single weapon was ever used in the cold war, It only added to the tensions which further created security fears to common public.
lol.. what are you a hippie? Why are you in a defence forum? For the price of a MKi you can probably get 50,000 people out of poverty. Lets scrap the MKIs and get everyone houses and food then.
 

ajay_ijn

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Hiroshima and nagasaki was also bombed, now we have people living there on the very ground which was bombed(there is a new shopping complex there just FYI).. why is that? The radiation is only temporary. The fallouts will get washed away in the next 3 or 4 monsoons. Fallouts are nothing but radiation traces from products of the fission stage. They are not some mumbo jumbo evil thing. With proper understanding and anti-radiation measures, they can be cleared.
So you can live in city part of which was nuked and hope that radiation will be washed
away for 3 to 4 monsoons.

Can any of those anti-radiation measure assure that City will continue to be as normal it was before? will u live in City trusting the even if a part of that nuked, we can live with anti-radiation measues.

what about millions of people who would die with thet blast and radiation? even that damage would be acceptable to any country for the sake of solving a border dispute?



lol.. what are you a hippie? Why are you in a defence forum? For the price of a MKi you can probably get 50,000 people out of poverty. Lets scrap the MKIs and get everyone houses and food then.
ofcoz we can scrap MKIs if it was not for the disputes. but there is a difference between mad nuclear arms race building thousands of nukes of megatons capable of destroying the planet repeatedly and a conventional military build up for defence of the country.
 

ajay_ijn

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my point is nuclear weapons of any size/yield are too costly to solve a border dispute and claim a region?

It isn't worth to blast a countrys most important city with 20KT or 200 KT or 2 MT to occupy the region the we claim.

Hiroshima and nagasaki was also bombed, now we have people living there on the very ground which was bombed(there is a new shopping complex there just FYI)..
the objective of US was immediate surrender of Japanese to avoid deaths of millions of US & Japanese. US achieved that objective. what US claims that it would led to far more deaths had US attempted invasion of Japan.
 

fulcrum

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So you can live in city part of which was nuked and hope that radiation will be washed
away for 3 to 4 monsoons.

Can any of those anti-radiation measure assure that City will continue to be as normal it was before? will u live in City trusting the even if a part of that nuked, we can live with anti-radiation measues.
Ofcourse I would live! People of Hiroshima and nagasaki are living aren't they.. they are also humans.
Have you heard of Geiger counter? You are acting like how an illiterate would act when faced with solar eclipses.

ofcoz we can scrap MKIs if it was not for the disputes. but there is a difference between mad nuclear arms race building thousands of nukes of megatons capable of destroying the planet repeatedly and a conventional military build up for defence of the country. Imagine if every country having fighters will start testing and building nukes trying to match other countries nuclear arsenal?.
Easier said than done. That fact that we failed should tell you a lot about how complex T-nuclear weapons are. Now every country can wake up and design a nuke.
And BTW, a strategic nuke is a bigger strategic deterrent than a 1000 MKIs, not to mention a lot cheaper.
 

ajay_ijn

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Ofcourse I would live! People of Hiroshima and nagasaki are living aren't they.. they are also humans. Have you heard of Geiger counter? You are acting like how an illiterate would act when faced with solar eclipses.
I am not asking if you would live after half a century after nuclear explosion. but just before city was being nuked?.

Easier said than done. That fact that we failed should tell you a lot about how complex T-nuclear weapons are. Now every country can wake up and design a nuke.
And BTW, a strategic nuke is a bigger strategic deterrent than a 1000 MKIs, not to mention a lot cheaper.
obviously 1000 MKIs can be more useful in various kinds of conflicts than a strategic nuke which would only used in a nuclear conflict and only when all other measures to stop the conflict have failed.



I frankly don't see how a country in 21st century can think of being capable to handle damage of much smaller nuke but not a strategic nuke. ofcourse if anyone has to choose between two, i would not chose strategic nuke but there is always an option choosing not choosing either of them at all.
 

fulcrum

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my point is nuclear weapons of any size/yield are too costly to solve a border dispute and claim a region?

It isn't worth to blast a countrys most important city with 20KT or 200 KT or 2 MT to occupy the region the we claim.
We are talking about a full blown war here, not border disputes. If there is a meglomaniac next as the leader of china or pakistan who want to go out with a bang and starts a full blown war, what will you do? Retaliate with strategic weapons, or burn candles and form human chains?

the objective of US was immediate surrender of Japanese to avoid deaths of millions of US & Japanese. US achieved that objective. what US claims that it would led to far more deaths had US attempted invasion of Japan.
That's bullshit story spread by the yankees and their powerful(& patriotic) media, similar to pakistanis claiming they won all the wars. It was the threat of war with the Soviet Union, and communism wiping out the entire royal family & feudal society of Japan which made them to capitulate to the Americans. The americans, unlike the soviets don't want to see their casualties, so they resorted to nuking.. cowards.

Some related books & interesting links.

Glantz, David. August Storm, volume 1: The Soviet Strategic Offensive in Manchuria, 1945. London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2003

ISBN 0-7146-5279-2
xxviii + 451 pages


"Delay caused by Japanese resistance on the islands is one of the reasons cited by Glantz for Soviet failure to conduct the offensive which had been prepared against Hokkaido. Of this planned invasion, the original volume says nothing. Glantz explains that newly released Soviet documentary materials show the northernmost Home Island among Soviet objectives, although little or nothing of this plan had been revealed until quite recently. The 87th Rifle Corps and 56th Rifle Corps were earmarked for the operation, and both were to be ready by 23 August, "...after they had completed their offensive operations on southern Sakhalin Island." On 22 August, however, shortly before the order to commence operations was expected, Stalin ordered the attack postponed. Glantz speculates that the assault units, held up by Japanese resistance on Sakhalin, could not have been ready on time anyway, but could conceivably have started as early as 24 or 25 August. While not all the relevant documents have been released, Glantz suggests some reasons for the eventual cancellation of the landings: Allied pressure, imminent Japanese surrender, and heavy fighting on Sakhalin. In any event, the Hokkaido story proves fascinating, especially since the landings would have put Soviet combat forces in Japan ahead of the American schedule for Operation Olympic and Operation Coronet, with dramatic consequences for the post-war years and the Cold War."

stonebooks.com/archives/031109.shtml

--------


Racing the Enemy: Stalin, Truman, and the Surrender of Japan (Hardcover)
by Tsuyoshi Hasegawa (Author)

Editorial Reviews

Racing the Enemy is a tour de force -a lucid, balanced, multi-archival, myth-shattering analysis of the turbulent end of World War II. Tsuyoshi Hasegawa sheds fascinating new light on fiercely debated issues including the U.S.-Soviet end game in Asia, the American decision to drop the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and Japan's frantic response to the double shock of nuclear devastation and the Soviet Union's abrupt declaration of war.
With this book, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa will establish himself as the expert on the end of the war in the Pacific. This important work will attract a wide readership.
In summer 1945 Truman and his advisers set a foreign policy course that demanded American use of doomsday weapons not only against Japan but, indirectly, against humanity itself. In this groundbreaking book, Hasegawa argues that the atomic bombs were not as decisive in bringing about Japan's unconditional surrender as Soviet entry into the Pacific War. His challenging study reveals the full significance of Truman's decision not to associate Stalin with the Potsdam Declaration and offers fresh evidence of how Japan's leaders viewed Stalin's entrance into the war as the decisive factor. Others have shown that Truman missed opportunities to secure Japan's unconditional surrender without an invasion or the nuclear destruction of Japanese cities. But few have so thoroughly documented the complex evasions and Machiavellism of Japanese, Russian, and, especially, American leaders in the process of war termination.
In this landmark study, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa gives us the first truly international history of the critical final months leading to Japan's surrender. Absorbing and authoritative, provocative and fair-minded, Racing the Enemy is required reading for anyone interested in World War II and in twentieth-century world affairs. A marvelously illuminating work.

Book Description

With startling revelations, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa rewrites the standard history of the end of World War II in the Pacific. By fully integrating the three key actors in the story--the United States, the Soviet Union, and Japan--Hasegawa for the first time puts the last months of the war into international perspective.

From April 1945, when Stalin broke the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact and Harry Truman assumed the presidency, to the final Soviet military actions against Japan, Hasegawa brings to light the real reasons Japan surrendered. From Washington to Moscow to Tokyo and back again, he shows us a high-stakes diplomatic game as Truman and Stalin sought to outmaneuver each other in forcing Japan's surrender; as Stalin dangled mediation offers to Japan while secretly preparing to fight in the Pacific; as Tokyo peace advocates desperately tried to stave off a war party determined to mount a last-ditch defense; and as the Americans struggled to balance their competing interests of ending the war with Japan and preventing the Soviets from expanding into the Pacific.

New York Times Book Review : The long debate among historians about American motives and Japanese efforts at ending World War II is finally resolved in Racing the Enemy, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa's brilliant and definitive study of American, Soviet and Japanese records of the last weeks of the war.
--Richard Rhodes

Times Literary Supplement : Without doubt the best-informed book in English on Japanese and Soviet manoeuvres in the summer of 1945...[Hasegawa] provides an international context sorely missing from most previous work. He has mined Japanese and Russian literature and documentation and, despite much that is based on surmise, provides fresh insight into the extraordinary inability of Japanese leaders to surrender, and into Stalin's machinations aimed at maximizing Soviet territorial gains in East Asia.
--Warren I. Cohen

Christian Science Monitor : A landmark book that brilliantly examines a crucial moment in 20th-century history...[An] important, enlightening, and unsettling book.
--Jonathan Rosenberg

Philadelphia Inquirer : The most comprehensive study yet undertaken of Japanese documentary sources. The highly praised study argues that the atomic bomb played only a secondary role in Japan's decision to surrender. By far the most important factor, Hasegawa finds, was the entry of the Soviet Union into the war against Japan on Aug. 8, 1945, two days after the Hiroshima bombing.
--Gar Alperovitz

U.S. News and World Report : One of the first to make a detailed study of the political interplay among the Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States in 1945.
--Alex Kingsbury

Los Angeles Times : As Tsuyoshi Hasegawa has shown definitively in his new book, Racing the Enemy--and many other historians have long argued--it was the Soviet Union's entry into the Pacific war on Aug. 8, two days after the Hiroshima bombing, that provided the final 'shock' that led to Japan's capitulation.
--Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin

Winston-Salem Journal : [Racing the Enemy] might be called the definitive analysis of the U.S. decision to use atomic bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Professor Tsuyoshi Hasegawa of the University of California, Santa Barbara, has mined both Japanese and Soviet sources to produce the first truly international study of the Hiroshima decision.
--Errol MacGregor Clauss

The Exile : Managing to convey the thought processes, assumptions and biases of the Imperial elite is Hasegawa's greatest achievement...Hasegawa's story is a weird, compelling one, and his case for revising our view of the leadup to VJ Day is overwhelming.
--John Dolan

Pacific Affairs : Hasegawa's study provides the most comprehensive examination yet published on the international factors that shaped the decision-making processes and policies adopted in Washington, Moscow, Potsdam and Tokyo, and which ultimately contributed to Japan's surrender in 1945. Racing the Enemy provides a fresh and multi-faceted perspective on a well studied topic primarily because the author draws on information from Russian, Japanese and American archives and sources. While this study both complements and challenges the well-informed findings of Asada Sadao, Robert Butow, Richard Frank and Leon Sigal, the international framework in which Hasegawa places the surrender of Japan makes this book a compelling read for students and scholars alike.
--J. Charles Schencking

American Historical Review : Will we ever really know why Japan surrendered in World War II? In this judicious and meticulously researched study of the endgame of the conflict, [Hasegawa] internationalizes (by a thorough look at American, Japanese, and Soviet literature and archives) the diplomatic and political maneuvering that led to Japanese capitulation...No study has yet to bundle together the myriad works on the war's end in such a complete manner...This work should become standard reading for scholars of World War II and American diplomacy.
--Thomas Zeiler

Amazon.com: Racing the Enemy: Stalin, Truman, and the Surrender of Japan (9780674016934): Tsuyoshi Hasegawa: Books
 

fulcrum

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I am not asking if you would live after half a century after nuclear explosion. but just before city was being nuked?.

Seriously are you comparing solar elipses with radiation from nuclear explosion? and speaking of literacy? how about acting with common sense and using some brains
Not half a century.. people were flocking there in a few months after the bombing. After a few years it was business as usual.
In a war there are causalities.. if I get blown up then, that's it.
hehe.. That's what you are. You are afraid of radiation similar to illiterates afraid of eclipses and common diseases.

obviously 1000 MKIs can be more useful in various kinds of conflicts than a strategic nuke which would only used in a nuclear conflict.

I frankly don't see how a country in 21st century can think of being capable to handle damage of much smaller nuke but not a strategic nuke. ofcourse if anyone has to choose between two, i would not chose strategic nuke but there is always an option choosing not choosing either of them at all.
Obviously 1000 MKIs can't save you from a strategic nuke. How are you going to respond to an adversary who uses strategic nukes against you? Burn candles and form human chains? Stop living in a wonderland. In reality anything is possible and we have to prepare for it.

1am.. Logging off.
 

nitesh

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although I don't agree with "India does not need more test portion" but good article:

Pokhran row

SINCE the days of the Shakti series of Pokharan-II underground nuclear tests, conducted jointly by the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) more than 11 years ago, controversy over the yields of the devices tested, in particular that of the thermonuclear device, or hydrogen bomb (S1), has refused to go away.

The devices of May 11, 1998 – S1, S2 and S3 – were exploded simultaneously as the shafts S1 and S2 were just one kilometre apart and there was the danger of the shock wave from the first large explosion damaging the neighbouring shaft and the equipment therein. Similarly, the sub-kiloton devices of May 13, too, were exploded simultaneously, apparently for reasons of “convenience and speed”. The thermonuclear design yield was limited to 45 kt to avoid any damage to Khetolai village, located 5 km away, the DAE had stated. In a paper published in 2008 in the journal Atoms for Peace, R. Chidambaram, former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) and the leader of the POK2 tests, claimed that thermonuclear weapons of yields up to 200 kt could be confidently designed on the basis of the S1 test.

Soon after the tests, Western analysts, analysing the data of the tests as recorded by seismic stations worldwide, began to doubt the claims of Indian scientists for the combined yields of the May 11 devices and asserted that the actual yields were much lower. These estimates ranged from 10-15 kt to 20-25 kt. However, on the basis of correct interpretations of the regional and global seismic data and on-site measurements of ground accelerations and post-shot radiochemical analysis of the radioactive debris in the shafts, DAE scientists countered these estimates through a number of published papers on the results of the tests that confirm their early estimates (Table 1). While some well-known experts have concurred with the DAE’s claims, the controversy has sort of remained unresolved with many specialists continuing to question the DAE’s analyses and conclusions.

From the DAE’s perspective, the claimed yield values are accurate and these agreed with the estimates of simulations and design values, thus rendering the Shakti campaign successful. DAE scientists also claimed that the tests were sufficient to build a credible minimum deterrent (CMD) and the data gathered in the tests were sufficient to carry out sub-critical tests, if required. In sub-critical tests, the fissile material is prevented from becoming critical and initiating an explosive chain reaction. Such tests will not be forbidden under a verifiable Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) if it should come into force. It was on this basis that the country declared a unilateral moratorium on testing. Continuation of this moratorium is a precondition to India’s civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States.




With K. Santhanam, a former DRDO official who was part of the core group associated with the tests, now stating publicly that the thermonuclear test was a “fizzle”, fresh fodder has been added to the controversy. He first made these remarks on August 24 at an in-house meeting of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) on the CTBT. He has since reiterated the statement to the media as well. “Based upon the seismic measurements and expert opinion from world over,” Santhanam has been quoted as saying, “it is clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed. I think it is well documented and that is why I assert that India should not rush into signing the CTBT.”

Clearly, if there is any credibility to this statement, the government’s premise on the claimed CMD posture and the vacation of nuclear threats, its unilateral moratorium on testing as well as its position on the CTBT would seem shaky. In the wake of President Barack Obama’s apparent reversal of the U.S. stand on the CTBT, there could be increasing pressure on India to sign the treaty. What is important is that Santhanam’s assertion seems to be based on “expert opinion from world over”. Strangely, he does not wish to rely on measurements – seismic as well as other – made by Indian agencies and the rebuttals by DAE scientists of the various external “expert opinions”. His claim would have been more convincing had he presented any scientific counter-evidence to the DAE’s claims or challenged its analyses with an independent set of measurements by the DRDO or by responding to the DAE’s claims in technical terms.

Domestic criticism of the thermonuclear test had come from none other than P.K. Iyengar, former AEC Chairman, way back in August 2000. He wrote: “[T]he fusion core [probably] burnt only partially, perhaps less than 10 per cent.” This comment has been wrongly interpreted by various media commentators to mean that the thermonuclear weapon had fizzled. A thermonuclear weapon has a primary fission (or fusion-boosted fission) trigger and a secondary fusion containing the solid lithium deuteride (LiD). Neutrons from the fission are absorbed by Li in the LiD to yield tritium and helium. The tritium in turn combines with deuterium in situ and undergoes fusion, releasing large amounts of energy. Even in the most advanced thermonuclear weapons, efficiency of the secondary fusion is around 50 per cent.




Arguing that the fusion to fission yield ratio in the Pokhran-II test must have been at best 1:1, Iyengar said that while he had no reason to dispute the yield (of 40+ kt) claimed by DAE scientists, he believed that the burn of the secondary fusion core was likely to have been highly inefficient. That is, the amount of LiD used must have been a great deal more than the optimum. He further argued in favour of more thermonuclear tests to improve the fusion efficiency as well as to increase the fusion to fission yield ratio. Iyengar reiterated the argument in a recent article (New Indian Express, September 2). He has further argued that the fusion yield cannot be derived unambiguously from radiochemical analysis as the methodology is complex and subject to large errors. In reality, however, the design ratio was 2:1, with the yield of the boosted fission trigger being 15 kt. According to Chidambaram, detailed radiochemical analysis, too, had validated this as well as the total yield (Graph 1).

Now, since both Santhanam and Iyengar were privy neither to the design of the weapon nor to the details of the radiochemical analysis and other measurements, their arguments are quite speculative. National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, in fact, said in a recent interview (The Hindu, August 30): “First and foremost, DRDO has nothing to do with [this aspect of the] tests…. The measurements are not done by DRDO.” And, in any case, unlike Santhanam now and many Western analysts before him, Iyengar has not questioned the yield itself.

Therefore, the question of whether India should conduct more than one thermonuclear test to improve the efficiency of the weapon and to make its nuclear deterrent more credible, particularly in the context of its no first-use policy, and its relevance to India’s stand on the CTBT, is entirely distinct from the need to do more tests if S1 had been a fizzle. It may even be argued that the bogey of a thermonuclear fizzle is now being raised by those who would like India to conduct more tests and not sign the CTBT. Indeed, as Narayanan said, “I think we are going to face pressures from the international community… [It] is going to say that this is one of India’s very devious methods of preparing for a test, that [our] scientists are saying that was a fizzle, therefore India may find it necessary to prove itself once again. This is my worry. I hope it doesn’t happen.”



Irrespective of the unwarranted fallout of the controversy, it is important to know the exact situation with regard to the yield of the Pokhran-II tests even if the evidence is not enough to settle the issue. The only data pertaining to the tests that are globally available are the seismic signals. On the other hand, data from the other close-in measurements, namely, on-site accelerometer measurements of the ground acceleration, CORRTEX (Continuous Reflectometry for Radius vs Time Experiment) measurement of the two-way transit time (TWTT) of an electric pulse through a coaxial cable (which determines the strength of the advancing shock front from the explosion as a measure of the explosive yield), and the analysis of radioactivity in the explosion debris are available only to the agencies involved in the tests. In fact, the radiochemical data and the capacity to analyse them – considered the most accurate means to calculate the yield – exist with the DAE only. It is reliably learnt that though on May 11, 1998, the DRDO set up its own accelerometer to measure the ground acceleration, the instrument malfunctioned and did not record the associated waveform correctly. An independent internal check in this regard, outside the DAE, would have been possible if this had worked. Much of the controversy with respect to the test yields has, therefore, naturally arisen from the seismic data, which were the first to be recorded over the global seismic networks as signatures of an underground nuclear explosion.

An underground nuclear explosion sends up a shock wave near the point of detonation and a small portion of the total energy released is converted into elastic seismic waves. The efficiency with which the wave energy is transmitted through the medium depends on the nature of the surrounding medium, the source characteristics and the coupling of the medium and the source, which depends on the geophysical properties of the rocks in the vicinity of the explosion site. These seismic waves travel through the body of the earth and also along its surface. The former are called body waves, which include both compressional P waves and shear S waves. P waves travel faster than S waves and also their frequency content is greater. At short distances (less than 2,000 km) body waves travel through the crust and top portion of the upper mantle, and these waves are called regional seismic waves. Beyond 2,000 km, body waves travel through the mantle and the core and are called teleseismic waves. Surface waves include two groups of waves, Rayleigh (R) waves and Love (L) waves. At regional distances, a group of higher mode Rayleigh and Love waves, called Lg waves, arrives at the detector before the fundamental L and R waves.

The energy of seismic sources – a measure of the yield in the case of explosions – is measured using a logarithmic magnitude scale. Three magnitude scales are used: body wave magnitude m(B), surface wave magnitude m(S) and Lg wave magnitude m(Lg). The yield Y of a nuclear explosion (in kt) is given by an empirical relation m = a + b log Y, where a and b are not universal constants but are site specific. To arrive at the value of explosive yield, one needs to measure the magnitude and also use site-specific values of the constants a and b. For m(B) in particular, such well-established relations exist only for a few well-known testing sites of nuclear weapon states. While a varies significantly from site to site, b varies in a narrow range 0.75-0.85.

According to S.K. Sikka, one of the key DAE scientists involved in the Pokhran-II tests, a major reason for Western analysts giving a lower yield is the arbitrary use of an a value of a known site, such as the Russian Shagan river site, for an unknown site such as Pokhran. Owing to the anisotropy and heterogeneities in the earth through which waves travel, m(B) can vary, and given a logarithmic m-Y relation, yield estimates would vary considerably even for small differences in m(B). In practice, assuming that errors in magnitudes arising from differences in propagation characteristics from the source to different seismic stations are random, the magnitude of an event is arrived at by averaging all globally measured m(B) values.



In the case of Pokhran-II, the computation of the average was further complicated because of the simultaneity of the tests, which causes P waves emanating from individual explosions to interfere constructively or destructively depending on the direction of detection with respect to the source geometry. Sikka and associates showed that owing to the interference of P waves from the two large signals S1 and S2, the values of m(B) along the line joining the two shafts (east-west) would be lower compared with m(B) values along north-south. For Pokhran-II, the average m(B) estimates of the networks of the International Data Centre (IDC), Arlington, U.S., and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are thus smaller, they argued. After making the necessary corrections, they showed that, as compared to m(B) = 5.0 and 5.2 respectively for IDC and USGS, the correct average value was 5.4. This gave a combined yield value for the May 11 tests to be 58±5 kt (Graph 2).

Soon after the Indian announcements of the test yields, Terry Wallace in Seismological Research Letters (SRL) and Brian Barker and associates in Science questioned the Indian yields. In fact, these two papers continue to be cited to challenge the Indian figures. But in their analysis, Sikka and colleagues had also rebutted their conclusions. First, Wallace and Barker used the average USGS and the IDC values of m(B) respectively to calculate the yields, which, according to Sikka, were inaccurate without including interference effects.

Moreover, both used the formula for the Shagan river site for Pokhran, which was inappropriate. DAE scientists pointed out that the Indian plate was different from the Eurasian plate, and in the absence of a site-specific m-Y relation for Pokhran, it was more appropriate to use the formula for the Nevada test site (NTS) (with a = 4.05 instead of 4.45 and b = 0.77) to calculate the Pokhran yields. Using an m(B) of 5.4, this gives 58 kt (Graph 2).



It must be pointed out that while the seismology community has not accepted the DAE’s argument of interference being significant, there has not been any convincing rebuttal based on detailed analysis either. Wallace’s rejection had been rebutted by DAE scientists who pointed out that his use of USGS stations only amounted to a biased selection as they lay within a narrow angle with respect to Pokhran and interference within them would be negligible. In a 2001 analysis in the Indian journal Current Science, British weapon scientists A. Douglas and others concluded that the effect was small. But they too rejected a number of stations as, according to them, their m(B) measurements were corrupted by the arrival of coincidental earthquakes.

Since there is a great deal of site-specific uncertainty (in a) in the determination of the absolute yield from seismic data and b does not vary significantly in the m-Y relation, the relative yields between two tests for a given site can be evaluated with much greater confidence by using the difference in m(B) values and eliminating a. By measuring the ratio of amplitudes of P waves (see picture) at 13 seismic stations common to both Pokhran-I and II (Table 2), Sikka and others have calculated the average change in m(B) to be 0.45. This, in turn, corresponds to a ratio of 4.46 between the yields of Pokhran I and II. A Pokhran-I yield value of 12-13 kt gives Pokhran-II yield to be 54-58 kt.

Clearly, this method of estimating the Pokhran-II yield critically depends on the Pokhran-I yield. It may be recalled that there is controversy over its value as well. On the basis of an apparent statement made by Iyengar that the Pokhran-I yield was 8-10 kt, this is the value that has generally been used by Western analysts instead of the official figure of 12-13 kt. Some, in fact, believe that it was less than 5 kt. A figure of 2 kt has also been stated.



Clarifying this to this correspondent, Iyengar said that local acceleration measurements at Pokhran had given a value of 10 kt, whereas British weapon scientists had measured an m(B) corresponding to 8 kt. “Therefore, we were very happy that our device had worked with an yield in the ballpark we had estimated,” Iyengar said in an e-mail exchange.
 

nitesh

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continuing from above article:

According to Sikka, radiochemical analysis of Pokhran-I had been done and it gave a value of 12 kt. Based on post-shot data such as cavity radius, surface velocity and the extent of rock fracturing, an analysis in 1985 has yielded a value of 12-13 kt. This has been accepted by some Western analysts on the basis of international m(S) measurements (Graph 3). But despite this, people like Wallace continue to use a lower figure for Pokhran-I. Interestingly, however, Wallace himself was a co-author of a report of the IRIS Consortium to the U.S. Senate in 1994 that gives a value of 10-15 kt, according to Sikka.

However, in a post-1998 analysis for the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), Carey Sublette, while generally agreeing with the arguments of DAE scientists, has pointed out that given Pokhran’s sandstone and shale strata over a water table, the plot of yield versus crater morphology fits better with a Pokhran-I value at 8 kt rather than 13 kt. He then goes on to rely on this value to give a lower estimate of around 30 kt for Pokhran-II. In a comparative analysis similar to that of Sikka and Co., Douglas and associates arrive at 0.37 for the average m(B) difference. This corresponds to a yield ratio of 3.1. With Pokhran-I at 13 kt, this gives a Pokhran-II yield of 40 kt. They prefer to use a value of 8 kt and arrive at a Pokhran-II value of 25 kt.

Given the uncertainties in dealing body wave magnitudes and the possibility of introducing bias in analysing m(B) values, renowned seismologist Jack Evernden prefers to use long-period surface waves. These show less scatter compared with short period P waves. Being waves of longer wavelength (60 kilometres), they are less influenced by the small-scale in homogeneities as well as interference effects. In fact, the relationship is almost independent of the site. Soon after the Pokhran-II tests, Evernden used USGS’ m(S) value and calculated the yield to be in agreement with the Indian claims. It may, however, be pointed out that for Pokhran-II very few stations reported m(S) values. Using an m(S)-Y formula due to J.R. Murphy, the value of m(S) = 3.56 estimated by DAE scientists yields a value of 49 kt. Similarly, the use of a formula due to Evernden and G.E. Marsh yields a value of 52 kt, both of which are consistent with DAE figures.

Notwithstanding Iyengar’s reservations about the method, the most reliable estimate comes from the post-shot radiochemical analysis. It may be pointed out that the U.S. has always relied on radiochemical analysis for estimating its nuclear test yields, rather than seismic data. In a 1999 analysis, DAE scientists claimed that the post-shot radioactivity measurements on samples extracted from the S1 site had confirmed that the fusion secondary gave the designed yield.

This radioactivity, apart from unburnt fissile and tritium, consists of (a) fission products from the trigger and the fission component of the secondary (if present); and, (b) activation products due to the high-energy (14 MeV) neutrons produced by fusion, such as sodium-22 and manganese-54, which are produced much more in fusion than in fission. Graph 4 shows the gamma radiation peaks due to fission and neutron-activation products, which are much higher in the case of the thermonuclear sample than in the case of pure fission samples (Graph 1).

According to Chidambaram’s Atoms for Peace paper, “a study of this radioactivity and an estimate of the cavity radius, confirmed by drilling operations at positions away from ground zero, the total yield as well as the break-up of the fission and fusion yields could be calculated.” The yield estimate by this method was 50±10 kt.

But this too does not seem to satisfy Western analysts. According to Sublette, the radiochemical analysis refers to an entirely different method. He argued that the DAE method had inherent limitations arising from the error in measuring the cavity radius. Values lower than the claimed radius of 40 m would substantially bring down the yield value, he said. The upshot of the ongoing story is that notwithstanding the DAE’s detailed arguments and analyses, doubts continue to persist. But that should not prevent the DAE and the government from carrying out a totally objective internal evaluation of the success or otherwise of Pokhran-II.

Since the present AEC Chairman Anil Kakodkar, who was also part of Pokhran-II team, has stated categorically that no more tests are needed, the current controversy, one hopes, will not drive the country’s polity towards more nuclear tests.
 

Pintu

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NSA dismisses DRDO scientist's claims on Pokhran II as 'horrific' - India - NEWS - The Times of India

NSA dismisses DRDO scientist's claims on Pokhran II as 'horrific'
PTI 20 September 2009, 12:41pm IST

NEW DELHI: National Security Adviser M K Narayanan has termed a former DRDO scientist's claims on Pokhran II nuclear tests as "horrific" and asserted that India has thermonuclear capabilities which have been verified by a peer group of researchers.

He said that the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), which comprises a peer group of scientists, had last week come out with the "most authoritative" statement on the efficacy of the 1998 nuclear tests and no more clarification was required from the government on the matter.

"They (AEC) were satisfied in 1998 and they were satisfied in 2009. Now what are you going to discuss?" he said to a news channel.
Narayanan said that the AEC, an independent Commission and the highest body in such matters, was asked to study the data of the 1998 nuclear tests once again in the wake of the controversy over the efficacy of the hydrogen bomb following the statements of former DRDO scientist K Santhanam.

"I think, we have done what we have done. Beyond that I do not know what we can do," he said.

Eminent scientists like C N R Rao, P Rama Rao and M R Srinivasan were members of the AEC and the doyen of the nuclear programme Raja Ramanna was part the apex nuclear body which went into the test results in 1998.
 

fulcrum

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The basic question in any scientist’s mind, Gopalakrishnan says, was “how one can extrapolate or modify a weapon design from the data on one single test — even if it were successful, which in this case was not”.
wow.. I think Gopalakrishnan has been reading my posts. hehe I've been saying this like.. forever!!! It's simple logic.. simulation can never ever substitute testing when we have tested only once! Anyone who thinks simulator is enough after a single test(what's more it's a failed test!!!) are obviously fooling themselves.

All these statement from government officials are telling one simple thing... that they don't have the guts to say they have failed. Saying so would mean disastrous for strategic outlook, not to mention losing face both against Indians and the world. And also there isn't going to be any testing because they can't face the pressure afterwards, not to mention the Indo-US nuke deal which MMS is so fond of for some reason. Also MMS is too busy with economics to spend some time for nuclear testing. And so they are simply taking the easy way out by lying.
 

Yusuf

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Fulcrum,

the way you use phrases like "I've been saying this forever" and before that in you earlier post that " i knew back then the test had failed" makes me believe you are Shantanam himself. How old are you when the tests were conducted?

Do you know that most of our rockets and missiles have been tested a couple if times and been declared operational? Our rockets are working pretty fine, infact impeccable. All thanks to simulation.

I want to comment on your earlier posts again. There are over 200 posts in this thread which has discussed a lot about nuke weapons. Go through them. Esp look out for posts from Officer of Engineers who is a retired colonel of the Canadian army and been through cold war. Read what he has to say. Look for his post on 3 articles 101,102,103 on nuclear warfare and then come back.
 

anoop_mig25

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This is what came in TimesOfIndia:

US nuclear gurus see signs of more Indian nuclear tests: US nuclear pundits feel the Indian establishment -- political, scientific, or both in concert – may be lining up to conduct more nuclear tests to validate and improve the country’s arsenal before the Obama administration shuts the door on nuclear explosions.

US nuclear gurus see signs of more Indian nuclear tests - India - NEWS - The Times of India
then indo us nuclear deal as well as other deal would be dead and i am sure our top managers are not so fool. it is nothing but ploy from american side so thatr ctbt is taken for clearing american senate .
 

anoop_mig25

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p2

hey why we are making moolah of test if it is failed then go again for test but donot do any declaration of test. thus nobody is going to know about it .like amercians do regarding presence of nuclear missiles on their ships .nethier accept nor deny.and i am sure we hide it from word as we did it in 1998.but one thing for sure don`t sign ntp or ctbt.just :2guns:it down.if there is pressure then do like amercians do.tell world that before signing we want for permissions from our parliament and make sure every mp except pm and his cabinet,andopposition leader cast negative vote.so we dont have to really sign for it.can any one tell me does us president have number to pass ctbt in their house(i mean their parliament).
over and out
:bye::bye::bye::bye:
 

Yusuf

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Makes me laugh. They could not detect the test preparation. They detected the test that's why the foreign scientist were saying the test was below the claimed yield. Satellite pics will show craters. Radiation will be picked up. We can run for a moment, but we cannot hide forever.
 

fulcrum

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the way you use phrases like "I've been saying this forever" and before that in you earlier post that " i knew back then the test had failed" makes me believe you are Shantanam himself. How old are you when the tests were conducted?

I want to comment on your earlier posts again. There are over 200 posts in this thread which has discussed a lot about nuke weapons. Go through them. Esp look out for posts from Officer of Engineers who is a retired colonel of the Canadian army and been through cold war. Read what he has to say. Look for his post on 3 articles 101,102,103 on nuclear warfare and then come back.
I have the right to say that because I knew what thermo-nukes were when the nukes were exploded, and I still remember the articles regarding the yield. And how old I'm.. well I was alive when the cold war was running in full throttle.

Do you know that most of our rockets and missiles have been tested a couple if times and been declared operational? Our rockets are working pretty fine, infact impeccable. All thanks to simulation.
Not a couple of times, but rather some 5-10 times. And besides, ballistic missile tech is one of the easiest to master. Why do you think drdo is successful in B-missles but not(or not yet) on the AA missles like akash? And comparing ballistic missiles simulation(which is nothing but a inertially guided projectile) to something as complex as T-N design where everything takes place in the range of billionth of a second, (yes everything happens in that timeframe) is like comparing the engineering challenges of building a Mig-15 to a Mig-29.
 

nitesh

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I have the right to say that because I knew what thermo-nukes were when the nukes were exploded, and I still remember the articles regarding the yield. And how old I'm.. well I was alive when the cold war was running in full throttle.


Not a couple of times, but rather some 5-10 times. And besides, ballistic missile tech is one of the easiest to master. Why do you think drdo is successful in B-missles but not(or not yet) on the AA missles like akash? And comparing ballistic missiles simulation(which is nothing but a inertially guided projectile) to something as complex as T-N design where everything takes place in the range of billionth of a second, (yes everything happens in that timeframe) is like comparing the engineering challenges of building a Mig-15 to a Mig-29.
Fulcrum Akash is not a AA missile ok it is SAM first get your basics right. And heed to friendly advice by moderators.
 

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