Who is this Qadri guy, just saw and heard about him today and he is already most talk about guy.
The perfect storm, when you make mountains of mole hills!
Let me reflect on the politics behind, why Tahir ul Qadri has emerged from the shadows all of a sudden.
Tahir ul Qadri happens to be a part of a ploy being enacted to cause instability in the ongoing democratization process of Pakistan at the behest of the establishment in Pakistan. There is a background to why he has been brought to the scene, and he is a result of a fall-out of sorts that seem to have happened between Imran Khan and the PA. Let me give a little background.
If we go back a couple of years, Imran Khan, who was to at one point in time find favor with the Musharraf regime but later to have a fallout but then was to again find favor with the PA after the exit of Musharraf. A love-hate relationship between the PA and IK.
After Nawaz Sharif's complete fallout with the PA during the days of Kargil war (the aftermath, initially NS was all in favor of the war) and the coup that followed, NS was not the person to push their agenda anymore. A new face had to be brought to the fore, and that is where IK was to figure in.
General Pasha was to take personal interest to prop up IK, in fact a complete media campaign was to crafted around IK, the very media which used to shun IK as a loose cannon and a drama queen overnight was to start giving him limelight, and he was to be flashed all over the media continuously. He started doing, all soothing to hear, rhetoric, which had a mass appeal in Pakistan, and then the Lahore
jalsa was to happen which attracted people in a massive number and was a spontaneous response by the crowd.
Looking at this spontaneous response, the PTI, as a real political threat to the status quo was to take shape when the political heavy weights and a large number of people who work as front for the PA in the political sphere were made to join PTI, though there are also the likes of Javed Hashmi's who have kept their distance from the PA. With these new faces, big amount of money was also to make way into the PTI which till then was difficult to find and resultant, the grass root workers were to be enrolled in massive numbers.
All well and good till now, but IK made 3 blunders:
He became too independent:
PA hates independent thinkers, and this is precisely what IK has attempted to become. There are a lot of times when he just doesn't listen to what gets conveyed to him, nor does he necessarily consult his party members and out of the blue he makes announcements, so the purpose with which his team was built around, at least for now seems to be failing.
Accountability of the PA:
Something the PA will never allow to happen, and something they literally hate when a "bloody civilian" seeks to have their accountability. This is a red line that IK has crossed, at least rhetorically. People in favor of democratization support the idea that the PA be made accountable, but within the powers that be, namely the establishment, there is a lot of resistance.
Soft talk on the TTP and tough talk on the USA.
IK here is doing just the opposite to what the PA wants to see happen. The PA generals want their pay cheques from the US to keep coming also the military aid they get, and TTP, which wants to establish the Afghan Taliban style sharia in Pakistan, be eliminated. On the contrary, IK wants to keep distance from the US with limited dependencies and he believes TTP are a group of people with whom issues can be reasoned out.
Why is IK able to walk in the different direction to what he is being asked to take? By nature he is an independent thinker, most importantly, he has the urban dwellers' support, also not to forget, he has the judiciary, and the CJP who all support him. IK does realize that if he doesn't tame the PA, he will end up like a lame PM just as Benazir was, and Nawaz is perceived to be.
IK, for the PA, is riding the high horse, and needs to be grounded. So how do you ground a self created monster? Either defame him, but with the mass support IK has, that will be shunned as mere propaganda, else bring in someone who also starts doing the "right talk", has the credibility to pull it off, cuts across the same support base that IK has, and that is precisely what is being attempted through Tahir ul Qadri.
TuQ is not a replacement for IK, mind you. When TuQ cuts across the same support base which supports IK, then fissures are bound to happen, and the vote bank gets divided. IK realizes his very well, the reason why he was not to join TuQ's long march but only support the ideals put forth and so that TuQ doesn't completely walk away with all his hardwork of many years, so
IK now has threatened another long march.
May I add here, the recent timing of IK's visit to Quetta, to protest the killings of the Hazara community was very crucial. It came a day before TuQ was to start the protest, but media's complete attention to TuQ meant, IK has definitely lost the sheen, so the long march idea now by IK.
Now, imagine a scenario where IK doesn't get the majority and doesn't get to be the PM? Or even if by chance IK gets to form the government, but he gets too independent for the liking of some, then make sure he ends up as a failure and comes across as a hot balloon no better than the Benazir's and the Nawaz's. Pakistanis will then feel democracy is no more than a curse for them, and nothing was better than a military rule.
That is what the ploy is, and that is where the PA intends to bring Pakistanis to, where they will be begging for a change, and a change where the PA would be clearly in the forefront either through a coup (which I doubt) or by way of a extended tenure of a technocrat government (which is where it seems Pakistan is headed to).
The game is on, as they say. Let us see how this all unfolds and who gets to wins this round, but Pakistan is bound to go through a lot of instability this year for sure.
