Rafale would be the obvious choice to me. Is it out of contention now due to the order backlog? Also, I recall that agreement for production in India could not be reached 10 years ago. Unless something has changed, why would agreement for production in India be reached if Rafale was selected?
I guess that Eurofighter could be pushed for a sizzling deal. UK assembly is finishing. UK has a couple of squadrons of early Typhoons soon to be retired. I suggest considering a government-to-government deal to cover
- transfer of retiring early RAF Typhoons to India for free (perhaps some from other partner countries as well)
- transfer of UK assembly line to India
- manufacture of parts and spares for Typhoon users to be transferred to India where India is cheaper
Where Eurofighter is concerned, it should be a buyer's market. I guess that India could get a really keen price for Typhoon. If spares from India are much cheaper than from Europe, the CPFH of Typhoon could be reduced for existing users.
Within 3 years IAF could have several squadrons of Typhoons in use.
The problem with going with any fighter other than Rafale for MRFA is multifold:
- Rafale fleet may well stay stuck at 36 with a few more bought for attrition. This is nowhere near the 72 unit size fleet for which infrastructure was already established by the IAF at 2 air bases and not at all ideal.
- Money invested in Rafale's India Specific Enhancements will be pretty much wasted, given how small the 36 number is compared to the original plan.
- It will introduce a new type into an already complex variety of fighter types. That means new training for pilots, technicians, new MRO, new engine repair facilities, different simulators, different tactics, different weapons (for e.g. the guns will be different, AASMs bought for Rafale will not be usable for the new type, etc.), different equipment (e.g. X-Guard towed decoy on Rafale versus whatever the other fighter may have or the HMDS)
The problems with Eurofighter remains:
- UK, Germany, Spain and Italy all have a say in the Eurofighter consortium. Too many partners, too much confusion, even if one of them takes the lead (Germany in this case if I'm not wrong) for the exports.
- Biggest threat of Germany turning woke and doing what it did to India in the last few years, which was to delay equipment that then led to programme delays. E.g. the Zorawar light tank's engine or the Arjun Mk1A tank engines which were all delayed thanks to MTU not getting Govt. sanctions on time. France is a much more stable and understanding strategic partner. Both Germany and UK have a tendency to preach morals and teach democracy to India. Especially Germany.
- Not as well rounded as the Rafale is in overall capabilities.
- I'll go with Peter Collin's evaluation of the Rafale which was glowing and rated it as the best 4.5 gen fighter he'd flown.
- Peter Collins' overall observation was that the Rafale "would eat" the Typhoon below 10,000 ft and will stay with the Typhoon between 10,000 to 20,000 ft. And he knew what he was talking about, having flown the Rafale and also the Typhoon simulator.
The advantages of going with Eurofighter are well enumerated in your post, but except for the Tranche 1 Typhoons possibly being offered for free (I've heard of no such offer in real though) all of what the Eurofighter consortium can offer will be offered by Dassault as well.
Without a doubt the Eurofighter consortium would be able to set up an assembly line in India, but Dassault is happy to set up an assembly line that it will control, in India. They just want an order for at least 100 units. Same would be true of the Eurofighter consortium.
