MMRCA 2.0: News & Discussions

[abingdonboy]

View attachment 227921
Are you in drugs/weed ???
Now who is deluding and debating between these imaginary requirements ?????

I’m being consistent- MRFA is a fantasy and not worth talking about

300-400 LCA MK1A/2 are clearly the plan + an additional 2-3 SQNs of Rafales later down the road

It’s almost 2024 and not even the RFP for MRFA has been issued, it’s obvious to all those that are watching that this was never going to be a reality

 

[abingdonboy]

5.5 billions cleared for 26 Rafale (22 x M and 4 x B)

https://aninews.in/news/national/general-news/india-gives-letter-of-request-to-france-for-buying-26-rafale-m-fighter-jets-for-navy20231027220359/

Not sure of the procurement mechanism being used for MRCBF, it seems to be bespoke and not the traditional RFP process, let’s hope the French govt is throwing in some strategic sweetners to line up the 125KN JV, additional Rafales, SSN tech etc etc.


I’ve always said France is India’s best bet as a strategic partner and I hope France recognises the value of India long term, the US wants to replace Russia to India but it’s more natural to be France if both sides play the game right

 

[johnj]

I’m being consistent- MRFA is a fantasy and not worth talking about

300-400 LCA MK1A/2 are clearly the plan + an additional 2-3 SQNs of Rafales later down the road

It’s almost 2024 and not even the RFP for MRFA has been issued, it’s obvious to all those that are watching that this was never going to be a reality

LOL
I never said IAF need to buy 150+ rafale, but only said Lca mk2 can fulfill the role of mrfa, and that doesn't mean LCAmk2 can match the capabilities of eft or rafale and 150~250 lca mk1a/b or c version not going to eliminate the need for mrfa
If you consider reality, then IAF can expect additional 36 rafale in this decade due to existing logistics.
There is no 300-400 LCA MK1A/2 plan. its a dream]mine] and only plan is 40mk1 and 126/144 mk2.
only thanks to NDA and Manohar Parrikar smart work, IAF ordered 83 more LCA mk1 and considering ordering 97 more. Eventually IAF buy around 350+[400+ if IAF buy 97 mk1a/b] LCA MK1 and 2 versions and become the backbone of IAF
In the case of MRFA, before RFP, IAF need MoD approval. I think, IAF yet to present MRFA requirement before DAC

 

[MirageBlue]

I didn’t say the LCAs were in the same class as Rafale but that’s not the objective is it? No one ever said MRFA is about finding a Rafale equivalent but meeting a nearly 25 year old requirement for ~100-200 MRCA/modern fighter bombers. Originally the IAF was pushing for >100 Mirage 2000s post Kargil 1999 but when production ended for that they launched MRCA which became MMRCA and the rest was history.

LCA MK.2 is hence nominally a suitable product and ticks most of the boxes in terms of self reliance, numbers, customisability etc etc

im sure the IAF would love their dream of 126-189+ Rafales to become a reality but that’s incomprehensible at this point.

I’m still pretty sure post 2024 elections in india there will be talk of an additional 2-3 SQNs of Rafales for the IAF but MRFA is utterly fantasy stuff

While it's true that the MWF Tejas Mk2 fits right into the Mirage-2000-5 requirement of the original MRCA, one can be sure that the IAF isn't looking at having ~180 Tejas Mk2s (which is likely to be the number of Tejas Mk2s procured) PLUS 114 Tejas Mk2s as the MRCA.

Multiple issues exist. The numbers are simply TOO big for HAL alone to deliver. We're talking of almost 300 Tejas Mk2s in that case and even with 30 assembled per year we're talking of 10 years to complete deliveries.

Having a separate assembly line from another supplier like with the Airbus-Tata JV has advantages in having a timeline that is not merged with that of the Tejas Mk2, diversifying the IAF's suppliers and giving the IAF access to another line and another set of technologies (in this case from France for Rafale F4 and F5).

 

[abingdonboy]

LOL
I never said IAF need to buy 150+ rafale, but only said Lca mk2 can fulfill the role of mrfa, and that doesn't mean LCAmk2 can match the capabilities of eft or rafale and 150~250 lca mk1a/b or c version not going to eliminate the need for mrfa
If you consider reality, then IAF can expect additional 36 rafale in this decade due to existing logistics.
There is no 300-400 LCA MK1A/2 plan. its a dream]mine] and only plan is 40mk1 and 126/144 mk2.
only thanks to NDA and Manohar Parrikar smart work, IAF ordered 83 more LCA mk1 and considering ordering 97 more. Eventually IAF buy around 350+[400+ if IAF buy 97 mk1a/b] LCA MK1 and 2 versions and become the backbone of IAF
In the case of MRFA, before RFP, IAF need MoD approval. I think, IAF yet to present MRFA requirement before DAC

While it's true that the MWF Tejas Mk2 fits right into the Mirage-2000-5 requirement of the original MRCA, one can be sure that the IAF isn't looking at having ~180 Tejas Mk2s (which is likely to be the number of Tejas Mk2s procured) PLUS 114 Tejas Mk2s as the MRCA.

Multiple issues exist. The numbers are simply TOO big for HAL alone to deliver. We're talking of almost 300 Tejas Mk2s in that case and even with 30 assembled per year we're talking of 10 years to complete deliveries.

Having a separate assembly line from another supplier like with the Airbus-Tata JV has advantages in having a timeline that is not merged with that of the Tejas Mk2, diversifying the IAF's suppliers and giving the IAF access to another line and another set of technologies (in this case from France for Rafale F4 and F5).

Once LCA MK.2 is in production all bets are off- a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush

LCA MK1A was never in the grand plan but now they’ve got 83 on order and are talking about 97 more. Upfront commitments for LCA MK.2 seem to be 120-150 jets, once it’s in production it’s only logical they keep adding numbers as they’ve done with almost every single product ever ordered from domestic firms in India

I’m not saying LCA MK.2 is a Rafale beater but faced with dwindling SQN numbers it’s good enough to plug the gap

a year ago the IAF CAS only spoke about MRFA as the gap filler now he’s talking about additional MK1As and MRFA is absent from the discussion .

reality has a way of winning

 

[johnj]

While it's true that the MWF Tejas Mk2 fits right into the Mirage-2000-5 requirement of the original MRCA, one can be sure that the IAF isn't looking at having ~180 Tejas Mk2s (which is likely to be the number of Tejas Mk2s procured) PLUS 114 Tejas Mk2s as the MRCA.

Multiple issues exist. The numbers are simply TOO big for HAL alone to deliver. We're talking of almost 300 Tejas Mk2s in that case and even with 30 assembled per year we're talking of 10 years to complete deliveries.

Having a separate assembly line from another supplier like with the Airbus-Tata JV has advantages in having a timeline that is not merged with that of the Tejas Mk2, diversifying the IAF's suppliers and giving the IAF access to another line and another set of technologies (in this case from France for Rafale F4 and F5).

IAF may buy around 250 LCA mk2, 126~180 with F414 and 60~120 with 110kN engine

 

[MirageBlue]

IAF may buy around 250 LCA mk2, 126~180 with F414 and 60~120 with 110kN engine

The question is - till when will the IAF be continuing to buy a 4.5 gen fighter?

Tejas Mk2 deliveries should start around 2032, assuming things go as per plan. Assume 180 are ordered in 2 batches (108 batch 1 and 72 in batch 2). Assuming 24 assembled and delivered per year, the IAF will still be receiving Tejas Mk2s from HAL in 2040.

The AMCA Mk1 with the GE F-414 will be entering service around 2035 or so (IMO). The IAF will get 40 AMCA Mk1s from HAL as per the current plan, so if such a small number is ordered, they will all be delivered in 4-5 years' time. After that the IAF will switch it's attention to the AMCA Mk2 right around 2040 or so. 108 of those are planned, but I'd expect the order size to grow as the massive Su-30MKI fleet starts to retire around that time.

We have 270 Su-30MKIs as of now. the AMCA and the Rafale/MRFA are supposed to take on the role of the heavy/medium twin engine long range fighter that the Su-30MKI current performs. It is these 2 types that are likely to be ordered in large numbers to replace the Su-30MKI, not the Tejas Mk2.

The Tejas Mk2 hits the perfect sweet spot between the Mirage-2000I/TI and the MiG-29UPG. And it is these 6 squadrons of Mirages and Fulcrums that the Tejas Mk2 will replace as they begin to retire in 2032 or there-abouts.

But by then Jaguars too will start to retire as their age begins to show up really. That's a large fleet and could theoretically be replaced by the Tejas Mk2 just as well. That is why I assume the Tejas Mk2 fleet will grow to 180. The remaining Jaguar replacement will happen with the MRFA.

 

[johnj]

LCA MK1A was never in the grand plan but now they’ve got 83 on order and are talking about 97 more. Upfront commitments for LCA MK.2 seem to be 120-150 jets, once it’s in production it’s only logical they keep adding numbers as they’ve done with almost every single product ever ordered from domestic firms in India

yes, and due to NDA

I’m not saying LCA MK.2 is a Rafale beater but faced with dwindling SQN numbers it’s good enough to plug the gap

That is why MRFA is so important
LOL, a situation created by IAF due to lack of vision

a year ago the IAF CAS only spoke about MRFA as the gap filler now he’s talking about additional MK1As and MRFA is absent from the discussion .

What discussion, and any one asked about MRFA with IAF CAS ??

reality has a way of winning

Reality is IAF very slow in modernization and lack future vision
& Only open eye after something bad happens
& Always ask for foreign weapons first

 

[MirageBlue]

Once LCA MK.2 is in production all bets are off- a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush

LCA MK1A was never in the grand plan but now they’ve got 83 on order and are talking about 97 more. Upfront commitments for LCA MK.2 seem to be 120-150 jets, once it’s in production it’s only logical they keep adding numbers as they’ve done with almost every single product ever ordered from domestic firms in India

I’m not saying LCA MK.2 is a Rafale beater but faced with dwindling SQN numbers it’s good enough to plug the gap

a year ago the IAF CAS only spoke about MRFA as the gap filler now he’s talking about additional MK1As and MRFA is absent from the discussion .

reality has a way of winning

Reality is also that the MRFA RFP is just around the corner. The IAF knows fully well that with elections around the corner the GoI would not opt for such a large deal this year or even early in 2024. They have that time to send out the RFP and then evaluate the candidates that clear the first stage of paper evaluation.

The IAF has understood that even with the best scenarios, this MRFA is a good 2-3 years away from contract signature and 5-6 years from first deliveries. In the meantime, it has the Tejas Mk1A which the IAF has full access to and knows fully well. The Tejas Mk1 is in service and from all reports is doing well. The negativity around the type is mostly dispelled now and meanwhile the IAF has a BIG hole in it's orbat to fill with the 6 Bison squadrons all retiring in the space of 5 years.

It also shows the IAF as being a champion of indigenisation which helps in pushing the case for MRFA since it isn't eating into the Tejas Mk1A's orders.

 

[johnj]

The question is - till when will the IAF be continuing to buy a 4.5 gen fighter?

Till 2042 or 2045. its dpend on 110/125kn TF

Tejas Mk2 deliveries should start around 2032, assuming things go as per plan. Assume 180 are ordered in 2 batches (108 batch 1 and 72 in batch 2). Assuming 24 assembled and delivered per year, the IAF will still be receiving Tejas Mk2s from HAL in 2040.

True

The AMCA Mk1 with the GE F-414 will be entering service around 2035 or so (IMO). The IAF will get 40 AMCA Mk1s from HAL as per the current plan, so if such a small number is ordered, they will all be delivered in 4-5 years' time. After that the IAF will switch it's attention to the AMCA Mk2 right around 2040 or so. 108 of those are planned, but I'd expect the order size to grow as the massive Su-30MKI fleet starts to retire around that time.

ADA also working with private sector, may be private sector can also assemble some AMCA
I'm not sure with the predicted AMCA time line

We have 270 Su-30MKIs as of now. the AMCA and the Rafale/MRFA are supposed to take on the role of the heavy/medium twin engine long range fighter that the Su-30MKI current performs. It is these 2 types that are likely to be ordered in large numbers to replace the Su-30MKI, not the Tejas Mk2.

AMCA or Rafale cant take the role of mki vs 1:1 ratio
AMCA partially take the role for Jaguar

The Tejas Mk2 hits the perfect sweet spot between the Mirage-2000I/TI and the MiG-29UPG. And it is these 6 squadrons of Mirages and Fulcrums that the Tejas Mk2 will replace as they begin to retire in 2032 or there-abouts.

Yes,

But by then Jaguars too will start to retire as their age begins to show up really. That's a large fleet and could theoretically be replaced by the Tejas Mk2 just as well. That is why I assume the Tejas Mk2 fleet will grow to 180. The remaining Jaguar replacement will happen with the MRFA.

IAF need LCA mk1 and mk2 to fill the gaps of mig21, mig 29 and m2k first
IAF need min 42 sqn counter both pak and Chinese, currently, in future more sqn is required to match Chinese
AMCA and rafale is the best choice to replace jaguar in deep strike role

 

[abingdonboy]

Reality is also that the MRFA RFP is just around the corner. The IAF knows fully well that with elections around the corner the GoI would not opt for such a large deal this year or even early in 2024. They have that time to send out the RFP and then evaluate the candidates that clear the first stage of paper evaluation.

The IAF has understood that even with the best scenarios, this MRFA is a good 2-3 years away from contract signature and 5-6 years from first deliveries. In the meantime, it has the Tejas Mk1A which the IAF has full access to and knows fully well. The Tejas Mk1 is in service and from all reports is doing well. The negativity around the type is mostly dispelled now and meanwhile the IAF has a BIG hole in it's orbat to fill with the 6 Bison squadrons all retiring in the space of 5 years.

It also shows the IAF as being a champion of indigenisation which helps in pushing the case for MRFA since it isn't eating into the Tejas Mk1A's orders.

Delusional stuff

RFP to contract is at least a 5-6 year process (best case), 3 years later for first deliveries so T0+10 years or so (T0 being RFP issue) just for a handful of jets. You’ve said yourself RFP isn’t coming in the next 2 years at least for which I concur, there’s no way IAF is still playing these games in the 2030s

at this point MRFA is a hedge against LCA MK.2 and AMCA, if things go really wrong in either or both they’ll proceed but just like in the RSH/LUH case once the indigenous product is getting finalised the foreign product purchase will be shelved

come back to me in 5 years, it’s pointless arguing about this topic until more time has passed

 

[abingdonboy]

That is why MRFA is so important

don’t see how, MRFA projected induction rate is 14/yr, LCA MK.2 and even AMCA can be produced at higher rates than that. HAL is ready to scale up LCA production to 24-30+ annually if given the orders, the same can happen for the MK.2 if they get the orders, there’s not really a limit on how high production can go for HAL other than order numbers and also what the IAF is willing to induct

 

[BON PLAN]

The question is - till when will the IAF be continuing to buy a 4.5 gen fighter?

gen 5 is a LM propaganda. And F35 is not a 5th gen according to own LM rules (not super cruising at least).
With the proliferation of low band radars (on ground) and multistatic ones, stealth is a decreasing value.

 

[standard snowball]

Is anyone here even considering the Manned Unmanned Teaming Concept (MUM-T).
IMO they are going to give 4.5+ generation aircrafts a new life and all major airforces will keep on inducting these 4.5+ generation aircrafts till at the very least 2035.

 

[abingdonboy]

gen 5 is a LM propaganda. And F35 is not a 5th gen according to own LM rules (not super cruising at least).
With the proliferation of low band radars (on ground) and multistatic ones, stealth is a decreasing value.

F35’s lethality comes from its sensors and sensor fusion, VLO has its uses but it’s not the holy grail that it was sold as, arguably it’s already a secondary feature

I’ll be more interested in hearing about the long term implications for these smaller countries that are going all in on the F35/VLO platforms, they are basically accepting they will only have part time airforces (not that unusual in Europe as it is). You already see many accepting that these birds mean less availability and less flying per pilot

 

[johnj]

don’t see how, MRFA projected induction rate is 14/yr, LCA MK.2 and even AMCA can be produced at higher rates than that. HAL is ready to scale up LCA production to 24-30+ annually if given the orders, the same can happen for the MK.2 if they get the orders, there’s not really a limit on how high production can go for HAL other than order numbers and also what the IAF is willing to induct

First of all, it is true HAL having 3 production line set up for LCA, but these line achieve full capability in the end of 2024, producing 24[16] jets pa, and 30nos is the max limit which can be achieved iff need arise
Mk2 version only enter such nos only in 2032/33, at that time mk1 productions ends
In simple HAL can manufacture 480jets from 2025 to 2045 plus additional proto for LCA

HAL also need to produce TEDBF and AMCA proto, pls mass production of TEDBF from 2035+
HAL also working on CATS
IAF considering adding MRFA at the end of 2030s, IAF get 24 LCA and 14 MRFA from 2031

Actually what I mean before is not about these nos or adding MRFA but about the main excuse of IAF to buy MRFA - IAF falling[low] sqn strength

Right now I'm not giving any importance to AMCA. The first step to is to conclude JV for engine, after that 12~15+ years need to enter production, ie almost 20 years.

My thoughts =
How IAF/MoD going to execute MRFA deal, if there is a local assembly, who owns it ?? what happen to the facility once production of MRFA ends ?

 

[abingdonboy]

First of all, it is true HAL having 3 production line set up for LCA, but these line achieve full capability in the end of 2024, producing 24[16] jets pa, and 30nos is the max limit which can be achieved iff need arise
Mk2 version only enter such nos only in 2032/33, at that time mk1 productions ends
In simple HAL can manufacture 480jets from 2025 to 2045 plus additional proto for LCA

HAL also need to produce TEDBF and AMCA proto, pls mass production of TEDBF from 2035+
HAL also working on CATS
IAF considering adding MRFA at the end of 2030s, IAF get 24 LCA and 14 MRFA from 2031

Actually what I mean before is not about these nos or adding MRFA but about the main excuse of IAF to buy MRFA - IAF falling[low] sqn strength

Right now I'm not giving any importance to AMCA. The first step to is to conclude JV for engine, after that 12~15+ years need to enter production, ie almost 20 years.

My thoughts =
How IAF/MoD going to execute MRFA deal, if there is a local assembly, who owns it ?? what happen to the facility once production of MRFA ends ?

Production capacity is dictated by orders- nothing more, nothing less.

24-30 might be the limit of the existing production lines but for more orders they’ll add more capacity

it’s not known who will produce TEDBF or AMCA, high chances it’ll be a SPV with HAL as a partner with a private company

 

[Azaad]

it’s not known who will produce TEDBF or AMCA, high chances it’ll be a SPV with HAL as a partner with a private company

In all probability LCA & it's derivative - TEDBF & whatever NLCA trainers for the IN are required will be manufactured by HAL.

SPV is the route they'd take for AMCA. Further , MKIs won't be directly replaced by AMCA + Rafale / MRFA combo . It's been given to understand that there would be a heavy category 6th Gen FA program to replace MKIs beginning around 2030-35 T/L . The study for the same should commence by 2025 give or take .

 

[johnj]

Production capacity is dictated by orders- nothing more, nothing less.

24-30 might be the limit of the existing production lines but for more orders they’ll add more capacity

it’s not known who will produce TEDBF or AMCA, high chances it’ll be a SPV with HAL as a partner with a private company

16/y for 83 mk1a, 8 for export & to avoid delay
If iaf place additional 50nos, 24/y if 100, 24~30/y. if 150, then iaf build additional 1 more line, but its unreal
And you want reality, hence 24~30/y
With 16/y HAL can easily deliver all jets within 5 years, 24/y - 3.5 years.

 

[abingdonboy]

16/y for 83 mk1a, 8 for export & to avoid delay
If iaf place additional 50nos, 24/y if 100, 24~30/y. if 150, then iaf build additional 1 more line, but its unreal
And you want reality, hence 24~30/y
With 16/y HAL can easily deliver all jets within 5 years, 24/y - 3.5 years.

Production capacity is for HAL to figure out, the bottleneck is orders not production regardless