Ya Ahhal! your pessimism knows no bounds. Every one prepares for worst case scenario. That doesn't mean they know everything about us. They do know that we have more than we declare, but they may not know how much more and where it is hidden. Recently a defense expert on LSTV said that it is all placed very near to the border so that if a war breaks out, we can mobilize on the way, because the ammo is kept AHEAD of the tanks. They will have to drive a few kilometers and then load up, instead of waiting for the material to arrive from the hinterlands.
In 1965 there was an IAF guy who had hidden fuel in Sintex tanks and hidden the tanks in random places under the sand. When Pakistan carried out air raids on the official fuel depo, we lost only 20% of the fuel, the rest of it was hidden elsewhere. He said that as soon as the war broke out, he called a junior and showed him the places where he had hidden it, in case he gets hit, because no one else knew about it.
The specifics are not known to anyone, but the situation evolves based on local commander's ingenuity. If you were a soldier placed on the front lines, you will ensure that you have secured enough ammo if a war breaks out tomorrow. CAG knows shit about these things. Even in 1971, a lot of strategy was evolved on the ground by local commanders under JFR Jacob. The top level didn't know the specifics. They just involved themselves in the broad strategy (invade in X month/ conclude before X month/ conditions for victory etc). How to invade, where to store the ammo, and all of these tactical things are looked after by local commanders.
Not everything is theoretical. When a war breaks out, then all the hidden maal comes out. We didn't win 4 wars by fluke. All of warfare is logistics. We lost 1962 because of lack of logistics.
The story of Nasr being a counter to Indian cold start is probably a cover story given by the Chinese to a tactical nuclear missile which they armed Pakistan with to deter the US from using Afghanistan as a launching pad to invade Pakistan, if push comes to shove. That is why you will see mostly Americans barking about TNWs, because it interferes with their future plans.
All this while Pakistan had long range missiles capable of striking deep into India, that never bothered the US, and now Pakistan inducts Nasr and suddenly the US gets acidity?