LOC, LAC & IB skirmishs

[Martian]

China has about 57 DF-41 ICBMs with 570 thermonuclear warheads.

In January 2014, a Chinese DF-41 ICBM was seen leaving its manufacturing plant.

China Shows New Mobile ICBM on Internet | The Washington Free Beacon

Since China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) builds both China's civilian Long March orbital rockets and the military DF-41 ICBM, we will assume a one-to-one correspondence. This means one military DF-41 ICBM is built for each civilian Long March orbital rocket. This assumption is reasonable, because China's military space budget dwarfs its civilian space budget.

In 2014, China conducted 16 orbital launches.[1]
In 2015, China conducted 19 orbital launches.[2]
In 2016, China attempted 22 orbital launches.[3]

Since January 2014 (when the picture of the DF-41 ICBM leaving its manufacturing plant was taken), China has launched 57 Long March orbital rockets. This means there should be about 57 DF-41 ICBMs produced to date.

Each Chinese DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs (ie. Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicle).

Thus, China has about 570 thermonuclear warheads deliverable by its DF-41 ICBMs. This total does not include the MIRVs on China's DF-5B 8-MIRV ICBMs, DF-31B 3-MIRV ICBMs, and JL-2 8-MIRV SLBMs.

References:

1. Launch Activity Hits 20-year High in 2014 | Space News
2. 2015 Space Launch Statistics | SpaceFlight 101
3. USA, China Led World in Launches in 2016 | Parabolic Arc

 

[IndianHawk]

we will assume a one-to-one correspondence. This means one military DF-41 ICBM is built for each civilian Long March orbital rocket. This assumption is reasonable, because China's military space budget dwarfs its civilian space budget.

In most countries space budget is just a fraction of defense budget. Doesn't mean all defense budget goes in missile making.

These assumptions are rediculous.

Since January 2014 (when the picture of the DF-41 ICBM leaving its manufacturing plant was taken), China has launched 57 Long March orbital rockets. This means there should be about 57 DF-41 ICBMs produced to date.

Absolutely illogical. No strategic sense at all.

Thus, China has about 570 thermonuclear warheads deliverable by its DF-41 ICBMs.

Most analysis support that china has about 240-50 nuclear warheads (few of which may be thermonuclear.)
What are you cooking???

 

[lcafanboy]

Don't try to fool. Not all mirv are actual bombs as per norms half of mirv that is at least 5 are dummies to evade Anti ballistic missile systems and to bring down kill probability so the figure 570 thermonuclear bombs is incorrect.

For your information India too has Agni 5 8000kms, k-4 5000kms and upcoming Agni 6 10000kms and k-5 6500-80000 KMS missile s with mirvs. That's the reason why China is making all the noise through media and has gone Berserk.

If you don't believe India has mirv capabilities then you should know ISRO regularly launches multiple satellites in single launch the same technology goes into the mirved missiles. So we are ready come what may, if we go, you too will, it is called MAD.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Wow so 250 Nuclear bombs have become 570 Thermo Nuclear bomb on just a single DF 41 missile. I thing china has 100000 Therm nuclear bomb 100 each on 1000 DF 41.

 

[Martian]

Here is the citation from Richard Fisher that China's Long March orbital rockets and ICBMs are dual-use technology.

As you can see, the DF-5A ICBM and the Long March 2 (ie. LM-2) orbital rocket are basically the same rocket/missile.

The physical dimensions of the DF-5A ICBM and the LM-2 are exactly the same, except for the payload at the top of the rocket/missile.

China Increases Its Missile Forces While Opposing U.S. Missile Defense

 

[LETHALFORCE]

http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/chinese-nuclear-strategist-chinas-mirvs-are-decoys/

Chinese Nuclear Strategist Believes China’s MIRVs Are Decoys
China may be playing a nuclear shell game.


During a discussion at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (44:20), Professor Li Bin, a nuclear strategist at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, said he didn’t believe that China had deployed MIRVs (multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicles), but that “on one missile there is one real warhead and many decoys” and that these decoys are in fact “missile defense countermeasures.”

Li further speculated that “China wants to understand the technology,” suggesting that the People’s Republic is testing MIRV systems without actually having one ready for immediate use. He is personally against China deploying actual MIRVs because it would place Beijing “in a more dangerous situation” of “use or lose.” The decoys, however, would “not change strategic stability.”

Contrary to Li’s assertions, the U.S. Defense Department believes that China has in fact deployed MIRVs. In its latest annual report to Congress on China’s military capabilities, the Department claimed for the first time that China possessed MIRV-equipped nuclear weapons, specifically identifying China’s Dong Feng (DF)-5 ICBM missile. The newly developed DF-41 ICBM may be MIRV-equipped as well.

Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists writes that MIRV missiles “deliver two or more warheads against different targets,” potentially hitting “targets separated by over 1,500 kilometers.”

Because the most prominent feature of a nuclear arsenal is its total number of missiles, MIRVs serve as a way for nuclear powers to obscure the number of locations they might threaten with nuclear strikes. This makes even a small number of missiles into an immediate existential threat to other countries.

Li seems to be suggesting China’s MIRV decoys would misdirect an opponent’s missile defense systems, increasing the likelihood of the real warhead hitting its target. This would be in response to China’s perceived threat of U.S. missile defense systems.

It may, however, be impossible for China’s opponents to distinguish between decoy MIRVs designed to fool missile defenses and the genuine article, making China’s development of decoy MIRVs appear aggressive. Simply insisting that the systems are decoys would do little to mitigate this, which is why I believe the perception that China has MIRVs, whether real or decoy, will have a significant impact on the strategic balance. In other words, the other major powers and their allies, including the United States, Russia, and India among others, will take steps to counter the perceived change of balance.

According to the 2014 U.S. report, “China’s new generation of mobile missiles, with payloads consisting of Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) and penetration aids, are intended to ensure the viability of China’s strategic deterrent in the face of continued advances in U.S. and, to a lesser extent, Russian strategic ISR, precision strike, and missile defense capabilities.”

In this sense, the United States and China agree that China’s potential MIRVs are in response to U.S. missile defense. The question of whether they make a devastating loss more likely or in fact threaten even greater destruction is one that both countries and the entire world will take very seriously.

Li, a professor of Sino-U.S. relations specializing in nuclear issues, is currently in the United States as a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment. The talk took place on Thursday, May 5 in Washington, D.C.

 

[Martian]

China's MIRV tests are a proven FACT (Source: Pentagon)

The Pentagon states that China's MIRVs are real. There is no claim by the Pentagon that China's MIRVs are decoys.

In the silly article posted earlier by LethalForce, it clearly said Professor Li Bin was "speculating."

Excerpt: "Li further speculated that 'China wants to understand the technology,' suggesting that the People’s Republic is testing MIRV systems without actually having one ready for immediate use."

How about we try to stick to the FACTS and avoid ridiculous speculation?
----------

China Flight Tests New Multiple-Warhead Missile | The Washington Free Beacon

"Pentagon officials told the Free Beacon the flight test of the new road-mobile DF-41 missile took place Tuesday with two multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, that were monitored in flight by U.S. military satellites and other regional sensors."

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Can you give a credible news source?


http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/confirmed-china-is-upgrading-icbms-with-multiple-warheads/

The re-engineering of China’s ICBM force has been known for some time, although no unclassified assessment has so far been been able to confirm details of China’s ICBMs modernization effort.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[sthf]

Richard Fisher

So according to this Chini moron, A=B & B=C therefore L=4678.hhfghj96rtukk.

 

[Martian]

Pentagon 2016 Report on Chinese Military Power to Congress (Page 25)

Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016 | Pentagon

"China also is developing a new road-mobile ICBM, the CSS-X-20 (DF-41) capable of carrying MIRVs."

 

[LETHALFORCE]

This seems more accurate it is being developed. Numbers are also accurate China is estimated to have 20 icbms and so far zero have been mirv'd.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Martian]

China's DF-41 ICBM is not in development. There have been at least seven launches to date.

DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD.
...
The first test launch of the road mobile DF-41 missile was carried out by China on December 20, 2014."

 

[I am otm shank]

China's DF-41 ICBM is not in development. There have been at least seven launches to date.

DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD.
...
The first test launch of the road mobile DF-41 missile was carried out by China on December 20, 2014."

any mainstream confirmation?...

 

[Martian]

You can read the chronology and the primary sources in the footnotes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-41

"The Washington Free Beacon claimed that China had test-launched a DF-41 using multiple reentry vehicles for the first time on 13 December 2014.[18] China soon confirmed that the launch occurred, saying it has a legitimate right to conduct scientific tests within its border, and that they are not targeting any country and does not affect their policy of not using nuclear weapons first in a conflict. The launch took place at the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Center in central China and impacted in the west of the country.[19]

In August 2015, the missile was flight-tested for the fourth time.[20]

In December 2015, the missile was flight-tested for the fifth time. The latest flight test demonstrated the use of two multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. The missile launch and dummy warheads were tracked by satellites to an impact range in western China.[21]

On 5 December 2015 China conducted a launcher test of a new rail-mobile version of the DF-41, similar to the Russian RT-23 Molodets.[22][23]

In April 2016 China successfully conducted 7th test of DF-41 with two dummy warheads near the South China Sea amid growing tensions between Washington and Beijing about the area.[24]"

 

[I am otm shank]

wiki is not a credible source for India or China grandstanding.. sorry..

 

[Martian]

Wikipedia is a legitimate source when there are primary sources in the footnotes. That's why I told you to read the primary sources (e.g. footnotes 19-24).

By October 9 2015, the count of DF-41 launches was four. Today, it is at least seven. Over at PDF, ChineseTiger has posted a more recent launch. The count should be eight DF-41 launches by now.
----------

China Unveils Rocket Capable Of Firing 20 Nuclear Warheads | ValueWalk

"The Pentagon believes that China has launched at least four large-scale tests of the DF-41 missile since 2012. The missile has a range of 7,500 miles, which means it could perfectly reach the U.S. soil, which is just 7,200 miles away from China."

 

[I am otm shank]

not trying to be difficult but can you post a couple of better sources than valuetalk or the others before? I see Jane's but they're just repeating news from Chinese media rather than independent media.

 

[Martian]

You can go through the mainstream media and piece together every single DF-41 ICBM test.

Growing Ballistic Missile Threats Cannot Be Ignored | Heritage

 

[Martian]

Bill Gertz at The Washington Free Beacon, ValueWalk, Heritage, Richard Fisher at IASC, etc.

I'm not going to waste my time satisfying your unreasonable demands. There are plenty of sources and plenty of pictures of Chinese DF-41 ICBM TELs being deployed. You can believe whatever you want.

 

[I am otm shank]

Cool. thanks for your patience with trying to explain to me. despite China's missile program being a threat to my community I'm glad that a fellow Asian nation is protecting it's sovereignty