K-15 Sagarika Missile SLBM

[arkem8]

K-15 B-05 Missile News Report in the Japanese Media

 

[sayareakd]

K-15 B-05 Missile News Report in the Japanese Media

any one what does it say, do they want these missiles ?

 

[Armand2REP]

Hi,
Shriya from which this missile is derived has variable range as per the size of the warhead and trajectory selected...

But i think K-15 has fixed range and has a Quasi Ballistic trajectory and never leaves atmosphere,Burns more fuel due to air resistance and can travel shorter distance for that reason..
First stage falls off at 15 seconds then the seconds stage Burns foe about 45 seconds,making total burnout time of 60 seconds,and reaches target in about 300 seconds...
Such depressed Quasi trajectory confuses enemy defenses and makes the time shorter from launch to strike.

It takes 60 seconds for it to reach its apogee and its entire decent is unpowered. That is nearly 4 minutes of unpowered glide at 20km from 7.5 Mach to much slower speeds entering the target area. There is no way it going over 750km with those stats.

 

[sayareakd]

Hi,
Shriya from which this missile is derived has variable range as per the size of the warhead and trajectory selected...

But i think K-15 has fixed range and has a Quasi Ballistic trajectory and never leaves atmosphere,Burns more fuel due to air resistance and can travel shorter distance for that reason..
First stage falls off at 15 seconds then the seconds stage Burns foe about 45 seconds,making total burnout time of 60 seconds,and reaches target in about 300 seconds...
Such depressed Quasi trajectory confuses enemy defenses and makes the time shorter from launch to strike.

it goes up and down.

 

[Apollyon]

It takes 60 seconds for it to reach its apogee and its entire decent is unpowered. That is nearly 4 minutes of unpowered glide at 20km from 7.5 Mach to much slower speeds entering the target area. There is no way it going over 750km with those stats.

In the latest test (on 27th January), B05 rose to an altitude of 20km and range was ~700km.
Source: The Hindu : News / National : India successfully test-fires underwater missile

In its twelfth flight trial, the 10-metre tall Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) lifted off from a pontoon, rose to an altitude of 20 km and reached a distance of about 700 km as it splashed down in the waters of the Bay of Bengal near the pre-designated target point.

On 24th September, 2011 it rose to an altitude of 40km:
Source: The Hindu : Sci-Tech / Science : India successfully test-fires Shourya missile

The missile rose on the dot at 2.30 p.m. from a canister strapped on to the ground, climbed to an altitude of 40 km and sped at 7.5 Mach, that is, 7.5 times the speed of sound. It covered its full range of 700 km in 500 seconds.

and the most important part:

Mr. Avinash Chander said it was "an entirely atmospheric flight" at a height of 40 km. Since this was the third successful flight in a row, "the development phase is over and we are going in for production of this missile."

So shouldn't the range be more at 40km due to less drag ?
Let's check:
Drag = [Cd x ρ x (v)^1/2 x A ]/2
where, Cd = drag coefficient (experimentally determined); ρ= density of air ; v= velocity; A= reference area.
In simple words D ∝ ρ.

ρ (10^-1 kg/m^3) at 20000m = 9.42800E-02
ρ (10^-1 kg/m^3) at 40000m = 3.98310E-03

Therefore, Drag at 40.0000km will be 0.042240 times compared to 20.0000km. In other words Drag at 20.0000km will be 23.6742 times.

References :
The Drag Equation
Aerodynamic Drag - The Physics Hypertextbook
Indian Standard Atmosphere Data(1)
U.S Standard Atmosphere

Finally: (another news report)

NEW DELHI: Moving a step closer to completing its nuclear triad, India today successfully test-fired a ballistic missile, with a strike range of around 1500 kilometres, from an underwater platform in Bay of Bengal.
India test-fires ballistic missile from underwater platform - Times Of India

 

[Armand2REP]

Oh, so its full range is only 700km... got it!

It covered its full range of 700 km in 500 seconds.

If its burn time is only 60s, it isn't going much anywhere else.

 

[Apollyon]

Oh, so its full range is only 700km... got it!

If its burn time is only 60s, it isn't going much anywhere else.

700km when Hypersonic glide at 20km, will be more when at 40km (24 times less drag, saw that ? ).
and what about Quasi-Ballistic Path ? i suppose range will be > 1500km and in close quarter with what Arun Vishwakarma says (1800km to 2200km)

 

[safriz]

In the latest test (on 27th January), B05 rose to an altitude of 20km and range was ~700km.
Source: The Hindu : News / National : India successfully test-fires underwater missile


On 24th September, 2011 it rose to an altitude of 40km:
Source: The Hindu : Sci-Tech / Science : India successfully test-fires Shourya missile


and the most important part:


So shouldn't the range be more at 40km due to less drag ?
Let's check:
Drag = [Cd x ρ x (v)^1/2 x A ]/2
where, Cd = drag coefficient (experimentally determined); ρ= density of air ; v= velocity; A= reference area.
In simple words D ∝ ρ.

ρ (10^-1 kg/m^3) at 20000m = 9.42800E-02
ρ (10^-1 kg/m^3) at 40000m = 3.98310E-03

Therefore, Drag at 40.0000km will be 0.042240 times compared to 20.0000km. In other words Drag at 20.0000km will be 23.6742 times.

References :
The Drag Equation
Aerodynamic Drag - The Physics Hypertextbook
Indian Standard Atmosphere Data(1)
U.S Standard Atmosphere

Finally: (another news report)

Hi ,
May be you are good at maths..
Can you do some calculation by making following assumptions..

A Bullet fired Horizontally,at an altitude of 20Km at mach 7.5..
what will be the range?

 

[safriz]

Watch the First stage separating at 17 seconds and 2nd stage ignition...


In this second video notice how the missile continuously changes orientation from vertical to horizontal.
Starts with vertical launch and then if you pause the video near the end,you will see the missile at almost 35-40 degree trajectory.

 

[sayareakd]

these guys know what they have achieved that is why the joy and dancing

Picture also show that people from all across the country work together to make it a successes, from North east to south India. Young India is now showing its talent. to you guys to make it happen.

 

[sayareakd]

India's Multifunction Missile for Credible Deterrent

By Arun S Vishwakarma Issue Vol 24.1 Jan-Mar2009 | Date : 27 Jan , 2012
Shourya and Sagarika is a new common missile that can be launched from multiple platforms, i.e. ground, submarine and mobile launcher. The naval version is called Sagarika, while the land based version is called Shourya1. The Indian doctrine of Minimum Credible Nuclear Deterrence envisages "No First Use" (NFU) policy and a triad of nuclear counterstrike capability. The land based Agni-2 missile range is limited to about 3,300 km, and the longer range Agni-3 will enter service soon.
The sea leg of the triad based on blue water naval assets dispersed across the world's oceans is most survivable and thus a critical part of the triad. The ability to reach all corners of a potential challenger requires a range of 5,000 to 8,000 km. DRDO is developing sub-surface launched long range Agni-3SL with heavy MIRV payload and ABM countermeasures.Indian nuclear powered ATV due for sea trial in 2009 will reportedly carry 12 launch tubes2 of 2.4m diameter. Launch tubes can be flexibly configured to either carry a two meter diameter Agni-3SL or three wooden rounds3 of 0.74m diameter K15-Sagarika missile. Shourya and Sagarika fills the short to medium range gap that is below Agni-3's minimum range.At operational level these missiles provide for range of warheads necessary for graduated nuclear escalation as enunciated by Indian staff and military warfare collages.4
This multifunction missile made in large quantities would fulfill India's immediate requirements. The missile optimally matches latest types of strategic weapons tested at Pokhran-II in 1998. The missile will most likely takeover the strategic weapons role of Prithvi and Agni-1 missiles, and make them unambiguously dedicated for conventional roles thus stabilizing nuclear deterrence. Shourya and its counterpart Sagarika has been tested six times5 till date. The missile is expected to enter service in 2010. Sagarika will be deployed on submarines and very likely on 'Sukanya' class naval vessels too.
Description
Shourya is a compact, slender, two-stage, solid fuel missile designed as a wooden round. The missile development was initiated as project K15 and was first flight tested6 on 27 October 2004 in the guise of solid fueled Prithvi-III.7 It is stored, deployed and launched in a fiberglass composite canister, which is easy to handle mobile and can be flexibly deployed on different types of surface and sub-surface platforms. Shourya and Sagarika share a common design. The missile is sealed and can be launched from a moving submarine at 50 meter depth.
The 6.2 tonne Shourya is 10 meters long, and has two solid fuel stages of 0.74 meters diameter. The first stage booster is about two meters long and the second about six meters long. The missile supports a range of unitary warhead configurations, weighing 180 to 1,000 kg. High missile accuracy and ability to fly in a highly depressed trajectory well within atmosphere indicates that it is a weapon for choice to interdict Command & Control (C&C) and preemptive tactics.The sixth test flight on November 12th, 2008 was a depressed trajectory flight (at Mach 6 and 50 km altitude) with continuous rolling to dissipate heat over a larger surface demonstrated the mastery of difficult aspects of rocketry involving sustained hypersonic flight.The wooden round design sealed in a fiber glass canister with the aero fins folded inside in a clean & controlled environment makes it maintenance free and tamper proof. The missile is launched by a hot gas generator developing 15-200 bar pressure using high burn rate HTBP based composite propellant. The thick dark gas cloud greatly reduces the thermal signature of the missile.
Once out of the launch tube, the first stage booster motor ignites, taking the missile to five km altitude, when, the main second stage motor takes over. The booster debris reaches a maximum altitude of six km, well below the horizon of radars beyond 330 km. The clean and small diameter missile presents a tiny RCS (radar cross-section).

The second stage air fins provide necessary in-flight trajectory control. The main motor is typically expended at 33 km altitude well within the atmosphere; however the air fins remain effective beyond post boost phase. The air fins also allow the missile to fly in a depressed trajectory as well as a cruise and glide in sustained hypersonic regime at 50 km altitude. The payload separation can be done much later after using aerodynamics for trajectory modification during ascent or descent. The missile is resistant to ABM defense.8
Re-entry Vehicle
Shourya Re-entry Vehicle (RV) supports a wide range of weapons, with total payload mass ranging from 180 to 1,000 kg. The missile range is a function of payload mass (see graph below).
The November 2008 test unveiled the new generation RV that is designed and optimized for newer boosted fission and thermonuclear weapon (including those awaiting confirmatory test). The sharp nose high 'âeta' (Ballistic coefficient9) RV design employs 16 cm diameter blunt nose and half angle of 12° that is mounted on a payload adapter to interface with the 0.74m diameter mission control module atop the upper stage. The high 'âeta' RV in combination with an all carbon composite body enables higher re-entry speed even with a light weight payload.10
Mk-4: For light weight 17Kt Fusion Boosted Fission (FBF) warhead11. Mass12: ~180 Kg13.
Mk-5: For 50Kt FBF or 200Kt Thermo Nuclear (TN) warhead14. Mass: ~340 Kg
Mk-6: For 150Kt FBF warhead15. Mass: ~550 Kg.
The all carbon composite re-entry heat shields with multi-directional ablative carbon-carbon re-entry nose tip make it very light and tough.16 This very light RV mass enables scalable payload and range tradeoff especially for lightweight warhead.
Propulsion
The Shourya has two solid fueled stages of 0.74m diameter. This diameter is compatible with a recently tested Indian sub-surface launch system that has a 2.4 meter diameter launch tube17.
First Stage: The first stage solid fuel booster is approximately two meter long and weighs about 1,300 kg including 1,000 kg high density fuel. The booster lifts the missile to an altitude of five km so that the second stage can operate more efficiently at low atmospheric pressure. It uses hot gas reaction control for initial control of yaw, pitch and roll before the air fins unfold and missile gains sufficient velocity for aerodynamic control surfaces.

Second Stage: This six meter long stage weighs about 3.6 tonne and generates 16 tonne thrust. Case-bonded HTPB-based composite propellant with low burn rate is ignited by a small pyrogen ignition motor.
The case is made of 250 grade maraging steel to maximize fuel mass fraction that is critical for scalable payload versus range flexibility. Its nozzle is made of composite material with metallic backup and carbon phenolic liners. The interstage coupling uses a soft-stage separation mechanism and retro rockets for reliable and safe stage separation.
Navigation & Accuracy
Shourya largely carries the proven avionics set of Agni-3. However, for more extensive aerodynamic maneuvering, it is augmented by new sensors and flight control system. Shourya will also benefit form Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS)23 expected to be ready by 2012, to ensure guaranteed national access to precision navigation. These systems enable high accuracy required for precision strike.
Range versus Payload
Missile range and payload mass are inversely related. It is interesting to note that press reports the Shourya's range for 1,000 kg and 500 kg payload. The former corresponding to 1980 vintage 200Kt FBF warhead and the latter corresponding to 150Kt FBF that is yet to be field validated.
The official reporting obfuscates the missile's much higher range corresponding to field tested 17Kt FBF warhead that is the mainstay of Indian deterrence.
Conclusion
Shourya class of missile is truly a multi-service missile that has desirable attributes of small size, mobility, stealth, rich set of warhead options, robustness and cost that could make it the most mass produced Indian missile. It complements the long range Agni class missiles to provide the Indian military commanders the global range necessary to secure Indian interests.
Sources & References
Nuclear Weapons & Indian Security, A Realist Foundation of Strategy- Bharat Karnad, Mcmillan India, ISBN 0333 938224.
Indian Long Range Strategic Missiles – Indian Defense Review Oct-Dec 2006 Vol 21(4), by Arun Vishwakarma.
Raj Chengappa, Weapons of Peace: The Secret Story of India's Quest to be a Nuclear Power (New Delhi: Harper Collins Publishers India, 2000, ISBN 81-7223-332-0).
Defence Research & Development Organization (Redirecting ...).
DRDO periodicals "Technology Focus" bi-weekly.
DRDO "Technology Focus" Oct-2001, ISSN: 0971-4413. http://www.drdo.com/pub/techfocus/oct2001/propulsion.htm.
Indian Defence Technology: Missile Systems (DRDO, Ministry of Defence, December 1998).
Evaluating India's land-based Missile Deterrent. Indian Defense Review Vol-19(4) Oct-Dec 2004, ISSN 0970-2512, Dr Sanjay Badri Maharaj, Arun Vishwakarma. Lancer Publishers & Distributors.
Indian's Emerging Nuclear Posture, Ashley J Tellis, Oxford ISBN 0195659058.
Nuclear Threat Initiative (Nuclear Threat Initiative).
Ballistic Missiles and Missile Defense in Asia VOLUME 13, NUMBER 3, JUNE 2002. "Ballistic Missiles and Missile Defense in Asia".
Nuclear Weapon Archive, 'India's Nuclear Weapons Program: Present Capabilities' India's Nuclear Weapons Program - Present Capabilities.
Notes
Shourya is a Sanskrit word for Valor, and Sagarika is a Sanskrit word for "Oceanic".
'The secret undersea weapon', India Today, 01/17/2008,India Today - Breaking News from India, World, Business and Politics ?option=com_content&task=view&id=3659 &Itemid=1&issueid=37&page=in&latn=2&limit =1&limitstart=1.
A "wooden round" missile is delivered to ships and submarines as an all-up-round (AUR), which includes the missile that flies the mission, the booster that starts its flight, and the container (canister for ships and capsule for submarines) that protects it during transportation, storage and stowage, and acts as a launch tube. Such an ammunition has almost 100% reliability, very long shelf life, and requires no special storage, maintenance, or handling.
War clouds, nuclear overhang, The Pioneer, ecember 27, 2008. Op-Ed by Brig.(rtd)Gurmeet Kanwal, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, "The nuclear tipping point in a conventional conflict is a matter of fine military judgment. A rational Pakistani approach would be to opt for a graduated response in case push comes to shove. Lt Gen Sardar F S Lodhi (Retd) has written about a demonstration warning shot followed by a low-yield nuclear explosion over Indian forces advancing inside Pakistani territory. If that fails to stop Indian offensive operations, Pakistan may choose to target a small border town in India. In the end India's conventional superiority would prevail and a future conflict in the plains may be expected to end on terms favorable to India".
'Sagarika' missile test-fired successfully', The Hindu 27/02/2008 http://www.thehindu.com/2008/02/27/stories/2008022756120100.htm.
Prithvi-III test-fired for first time: T.S. Subramanian, The Hindu, 28 October 2004, DDoS Protection, DDoS Mitigation, DDoS Attack Protected Dedicated Server Hosting - Staminus Communications - SecurePort - The Leader in Distributed Denial of Service Attack Security. hindu .com/2004/10/28/stories/2004102807641300.htm).
The author was the first to suggest Prithvi-III configuration as a 2 stage missile with 0.75meter diameter and 1000 km range, in the missile article hosted at http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MISSILES/Prithvi.html.
"Shourya missile cannot be easily detected" The Hindu, 14/11/2008 The Hindu : Front Page : “Shourya missile cannot be easily detected”.
The ballistic coefficient â ('Beta') is a measurement of an object's ability to move through a fluid. It takes into account the effects of an object's density and its skin friction, and is expressed as: âeta = m * CD / A where m: mass, CD: coefficient of drag, A: area.
This was an issue with the earlier RV Mk-2 design. The older Mk-2 with its blunt nose is an all range RV, however for lighter payload its â is relatively low, thus slowing down the RV at the tail end of its trajectory.
The FBF primary stage of the 1998 Shakti-1 test.
Total mass including mass of RV.
DRDO scientists appreciated for successful launch of Agni-3, Indian Express, Friday April 13 2007 "Union Minister of State for Defence MM Pallam Raju has said "the strategic payload of the missile is between 100 kg to 250 kg, and it is a two-stage solid fuel combustion system type missile." http://www.newindpress.com/news.asp?ID= IEA20070413023541.
The 1998 Shakti series of nuclear test in 1998 at Pokhran unambiguously demonstrated Indian mastery of Fusion Boosted Fission weapons. The Thermonuclear experiment (Shakti-I) based credible warhead requires confirmatory/proof test or a credible Laser Ignition Facilities. While awaiting proof test Indian posture will likely field the TN warhead in compliment with missiles with FBF warheads.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Launching platforms for Project K-15. http://www.drdo.com/pub/techfocus/aug04/missile13.htm.
Trade estimate.
Ibid.
Estimated by using Ballistic Rocket Simulator (ROCKSIM).
Trade estimate.
Geometric resolution from photo evidence.
Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System approved, 9/5/2006 Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System approved | India Defence.
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India’s Multifunction Missile for Credible Deterrent » Indian Defence Review

 

[sayareakd]

duplicate post............

 

[safriz]

very informative article...

So our assumptions werent wrong..
The missile's two stages are short lived and uses fins and aerodynamics to extend range in a controlled decend.
The second stage eventually seperates from Warhead and warhead goes for the target as a projectile and does not have any manoeverability...

Some other off topic but interesting informations in the article.
The largest indian nuke is 200Kt.
Smallest and most numerous 17kt and that will be the most used type on most missiles.
All nukes are Fusion boosted fission, plutonium-Lithium based.

 

[Daredevil]

Article by @bengalraider

K-15 missile as ASBM - "Brahmastra"

In this article I will explore the possibility of developing the K-15 missile into a submarine launched anti-shipping ballistic missile (ASBM). I believe this can be achieved and that once completed it will provide the Indian Navy with a true "Brahmastra" (in indian mythology it is described as a deadliest weapon created by Brahma), a massive unstoppable area denial weapon. It will be even more effective than the much touted Chinese DF-21D due to submarine launch platform and hence hidden till the moment of launch. I shall try and explore both the promise and the practical possibility of such a weapon system in this article.

 

[sayareakd]

The inside story of SLBM K-15

By Cmde Ranjit B Rai Issue: Net Edition | Date : 11 Feb , 2013 On January 27, 2013 somewhere in the East Coast of India the 10.22-metre long K-15/B-05 solid-fuelled SLBM with a 750km-range and under water missile hit a predetermined target at sea successfully in a final trial from an underwater battery operated submarine like platform at about 20 meters depth. A Dr Chakravarty, a senior capable scientist of the DRDO who IDU learns from media has just been retired undecorated was delighted, and someone phoned Vice Admiral PC Bhasin to inform and congratulate him.

Bhasin was a former DG of the nuclear submarine INS ARIHANT/ATV project till few years ago as Secretary to the GOI. Bhasin was a former Chief of Material(COM) at NHQ and also Director of the ATV project who as a young Lt prepared the Styx Missiles for the Osa class boats used in the 1971 to hit ships off Karachi. All liquid fuelled missiles worked perfectly to Admiral Gorshkov's delight. Bahsin has since lived missiles and electrics all his life as an electrical officer.

Media has reported that R & D had begun the project in 1998 by an Indian Navy-led team, since at that time the DRDO has only some 200 missile scientists & engineers, none of whom had any experience in developing solid-fuelled rockets.

Media has reported that R & D had begun the project in 1998 by an Indian Navy-led team, since at that time the DRDO has only some 200 missile scientists & engineers, none of whom had any experience in developing solid-fuelled rockets. Mark what media reported Indian Navy-led team as only NDTV Rep was allowed access to the Naval Ship where the DRDO scientists were on the naval tracking and look out ship.

It now comes out that Bhasin was wondering in 1997 why is the Indian Navy building a nuclear submarine for over Rs 3000 crores with a 300 km nuclear missile like Dhanush. Though electrical Bhasin, known as Indian Navy's Rickover after the legendary US Admiral Rickover who headed US Navy's nuclear submarine programmes for years, asked Navy and DRDO to think of a Solid fuel missile from under water with longer range as K Santhanam of DRDO was also thinking on same lines. . Bhasin took the risk allocated around Rs 300 crores and a Dr Chakraborty and his team now named by media began work at DRDL Hyderabad with freedom. This is the way projects should go.

Much is secret of the components but HILIFE Batteries Hyderabad had built submarine batteries but the Navy would not test them as Navy has strong bonds first with Standard Batteries who supplied the 200 ton batteries for submarines and later Exide who bought out Standard. HILIFE went to court against the Indian Navy on 'competition law' to make Navy buy its superior and cheaper batteries and in court revealed they were supplying DRDO submarine batteries for a project. Now one can link up it was the first name given to the underwater missile SAGARIKA 'from the seas', but it was classified. Inadvertently at Aero India when President Pranab Mukherjee as Defence Minister admitted to a journalists question that there was project called Sagarika. The name was changed to B-05 after Bhasin and many say it was named Bhasin and his birthday 5th, but the Scientists said it should be Kalam-15 as former President Kalam is born on 15th October 1931 so K-15. Now its name is K-15/B-05 in the media.

The R & D project, known as Sagarika, saw the development of various sub-systems of the K-15 that were tried out between 2004 & November 2008 in 10 different test-firings many in Bhasin's time at various shore-based establishments off Balasore took place.. The first fully-integrated test-firing of the 6.5-tonne K-15/B-05 was conducted in January 2010 followed by another one in January 2011, another one in January 2012 & 27th Jan test-firing, in all totalling 4 test-firings of a fully functional SLBM from an underwater pontoon.

Two more test-firings are due in future, these being conducted from the Arihant SSBN sometime next year. The 27th Jan test-firing saw the K-15's first-stage solid-fuel rocket booster being ignited inside a pontoon-based silo 20 metres under water & being lifted up to an altitude of 7km. Then the second-stage solid-fuel rocket ignited & lifted the K-15/B-05 to an altitude of 40km, following which the K-15 adopted a depressed trajectory flight-path. Being developed now is the follow-on 20-tonne 10.22-metre long but fatter K-4 SLBM which will have a 3,500km-range for the next ATVs with bigger plugs as increasing the range is now possible. This will be followed by an enhanced 12-metre-long version of the K-4 SLBM with a 5,000km-range. IDU congratulated Bhasin and Chakraborty and the unsung team and shows if Navy DRDO teams up with risk management sans bureaucracy more can be achived. In Navy we say BRAVO ZULU

The inside story of SLBM K-15 » Indian Defence Review

 

[sayareakd]

If K15 means Kalam on 15 birthday then what is K5 ? that does not support logic...............

 

[Daredevil]

India's K-15 SLBM: Where Does It Stand? – Analysis


By P Arjun Subramanian

The successful underwater test firing of the K-15 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) 28 January 2013 by the DRDO is a remarkable achievement, considering that only five countries possess this capability. The missile incorporates advanced technologies, which make it a reliable nuclear delivery system. The missile is to be integrated with the Indian SSBN INS Arihant, which can reportedly carry twelve such missiles.

Technical Analysis

The missile is reported to have attained an apogee of around 40 to 50 km, which is extremely depressed. This indicates two aspects. Firstly, the actual range of the missile is much more than the declared one. The range could be further increased by payload (one metric ton) trade-off. Secondly, this missile has a high probability of penetrating any missile defence system as it has some vital combinations: speed and a low trajectory. The low trajectory helps to avoid early radar detection and also may confuse the missile defence fire control algorithm from identifying it as a threat, while the hypersonic velocity reduces the reaction time of the defence systems.

The missile is reported to have achieved very high accuracy despite being launched in a relatively depressed trajectory. The underwater test launches conducted so far were done from a submerged pontoon at a depth of 50m simulating a submarine launch, which is similar to a launch from a pre-surveyed launch site on land. The geographical data fed to the Inertial Navigation System (INS) will be very precise, the only difference being that the missile had to take into count the hydrodynamics involved until it surfaces. The same missile, when launched from a SSBN on patrol, does not enjoy this advantage. Any navigational error in the SSBN navigation system will be transferred to the missiles' onboard guidance system. This error is bound to compound as the missile travels over long distance, degrading its Circular Error Probable (CEP). This acquired error can be reduced to some extent, if in future, a GPS aided INS is used. A point to be noted here is that an error of few tens of meters does not matter much if the payload is a nuclear warhead.

Deterrence Value

The missile is reported to have a range of 700 km when launched in the conditions under which it has been tested so far. This limited range becomes a serious constraint. For example, this missile cannot reach Islamabad or Lahore even when the boat positions itself close to the Pakistani shore. The only major city that the boat can threaten from a safe distance is the port city of Karachi.

For strikes against China, the boat has to position itself inside the first island chain to get within striking distance of Shanghai. Worse, to reach within striking distance of Beijing, it has to operate in the Yellow Sea or Bohai Sea, which is close to one of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) bases, which is also a base for its submarine fleet. This will be a highly risky endeavour. Hence, as a sea based deterrent, this missile has relatively very limited value. The DRDO is also developing the K-4 SLBM that reportedly will have a maximum range of 3500km, which when deployed, will enable the submarine to operate from a longer distance to be within striking distance of the target and complete the triad in the real sense. India needs three SSBN platforms to maintain 24×7 presence of at least one submarine in the waters around China.

How does the 'Sea based deterrence' affect Pakistan's nuclear equation?

Pakistan, for the past few years, has been increasing its nuclear arsenal with a focus on tactical nuclear weapons with an aim to deter any major Indian conventional offensive action. But the concept of tactical nuclear strike makes little sense because India would consider it a first strike even if it is used against Indian forces inside Pakistani territory. Hence, any Pakistani first strike ought to focus on Indian nuclear forces in an attempt to cripple India's retaliatory capability. With the induction of sea based deterrence, this option for Pakistan could be seriously weakened. This development is bound to upset Pakistani nuclear strike calculations, and might force Pakistan to improve its Anti Submarine Warfare (ASW) capability.

The crucial point is whether India's push towards deploying sea based deterrence will compel Pakistan to further increase its nuclear arsenal. Any increase in the nuclear arsenal beyond what Pakistan considers as required for minimum deterrence does not seem to serve any useful purpose, and this minimum deterrence estimation would have included the possibility of an Indian first strike. An increase would in no way be a counter to an Indian sea-based deterrent force. Besides, it will put an unnecessary burden on Pakistan's already strained economy.

Conclusion

The K-15 is a good weapon in terms of technological sophistication. However, the missile's range appears to be its only drawback even when launched in the minimum energy trajectory, where the range could be little above 1000 km. To have effective sea-based deterrence, the range of the delivery vehicle should at least be above 2000 km. Nevertheless, it is a good start and once effective sea based deterrence is in place, it certainly would tilt the balance in favour of India, at least within the subcontinent.

India's K-15 SLBM: Where Does It Stand? - Analysis Eurasia Review | Eurasia Review

 

[arnabmit]

The low trajectory helps to avoid early radar detection and also may confuse the missile defence fire control algorithm from identifying it as a threat, while the hypersonic velocity reduces the reaction time of the defence systems.

 

[Libertarian]

Is this like a Carrier-Killer missile or something? Is that the intended role? Seems like it fits that role.

 

[bengalraider]

Is this like a Carrier-Killer missile or something? Is that the intended role? Seems like it fits that role.

I believe so too, the technology exists only the integration remains! my article on the same in DFI should make it clearer.

K-15 missile as ASBM - "Brahmastra"