India's Nuclear Doctrine

[Bhadra]

HYDESim: High-Yield Detonation Effects Simulator

Thanks.

What is the use of one MT bomb if by dropping it over Islamabad, its effects would be on India.

[video]http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html[/video]

 

[pankaj nema]

We are moving away from NFU. And if border issue is not resolved with China in coming 3-4yrs then we will be made to elevate ourselves from Minimum Nuclear Deterrence.

.

NFU is our declared policy because we believe that Our Nukes are NOT meant to fight wars

They are MEANT to DETER the use of Nukes on India

And most importantly our DOCTRINE talks NOT just of Minimum Deterrence BUT Minimum CREDIBLE deterrence

That is the size of our arsenal should be CREDIBLE Enough to deter our enemies

 

[pankaj nema]

Something that pakis have and deter India with.

This was in the PRE Cold start days ie till 2002

Because earlier our conventional doctrine was to completely dismantle Pakistan

This is why Pak was constantly indulging in Nuclear sabre rattling during the 10 month long Operation Parakram

But Cold start only talks of hitting Pakistan " below " their Nuclear threshold ie only a few HARD kicks and blows
But NOT threatening their survival

 

[pankaj nema]

Every global security framework is going to get amended in coming decades, be it UNSC, NPT or other treaties. These amendments can not be rejected, only postponed. NPT will either be edited or replaced with new framework. World is no longer in the situation it was after WW2.

PS: Pokhran test happened due to threats from Pakistan, not China.

Perhaps you are NOT aware that NPT has EXTENDED INDEFINITELY by the UN security Council

The NPT has been accepted by Majority of the Nations because of ONE SIMPLE FORMULA

That is if one country gets nukes its Neighbours will follow suit

But in our case China already had nukes So our stand of not signing the NPT was totally valid

Pakistan said if India signs we sign and thus Pak stayed out

Israel has also NOT signed because they say that UNLESS ALL their neighbours end their hostility
and accept Israel they will stay out

North Korea is the ONLY Country which SIGNED and then CAME OUT of NPT

That is why IRAN insists that it is commiitted to NPT

The day Iran says it is walking out of NPT it means WAR

 

[LETHALFORCE]

NFU is our declared policy because we believe that Our Nukes are NOT meant to fight wars

They are MEANT to DETER the use of Nukes on India

And most importantly our DOCTRINE talks NOT just of Minimum Deterrence BUT Minimum CREDIBLE deterrence

That is the size of our arsenal should be CREDIBLE Enough to deter our enemies

What is the credibility against Chinese Megaton nukes or their neutron or hydrogen bombs??
600 IRBM's are pointed at India from Tibet. You have a false sense of security if you think we have
reached credibility. For a population of 1.2 billion people our deterrence is minimal at best.

 

[Yusuf]

yusuf, while accepting that as one theory, its prefixes and suffixes are not correct. The reverse is also true that Indian Nuclear capability did not deter Pakistan to launch Kargil operations, nor did India was deterred from launching Operation Vijay.

The fact is that a conventional military conflict of a limited scale did take place under a nuclear overhang. It can still take place, may be this time initiated by India. That is the basic assumption for contemplating the doctrine of "Cold Start".

Pakistani belief that India does not want to cross the IB and even LOC and is happy with whatever it has been behind their misadventures of 1965 and even 1971, even Kargil. Barring the Kargil time, India did cross the IB and LC .

This time around India will cross the IB as also LC specially opposite Gilgit, it seems. Pakistanis can not take it for guaranteed that the deterrence would not break. NFU is a declaration and not a treaty.

The difference is the doctrine and understanding each others doctrines both nuclear as well as general war.

Indian war doctrine as envisaged by Gen Sundarji called for massive thrusts and cutting Pakis into half and the nuclear doctrine was second strike no first use.

Pakistan understood our doctrine and therefore prepared its own nuclear doctrine which put very low threshold to counter pur massive thrust and breakup doctrine.

So I Kargil India decided not to go in for either crossing the LoC or opening new fronts along the IB. Op Vijay at the end of the day was fought on Indian side so there is no question of us getting deterred into operating on our own soil. But we were deterred from crossin over.

Op Parakram I feel was a blessing in disguise as it forced our armed forces to counter their doctrine as well as our political class. Cold Start has given them sleepless nights so much so that they have started thinking on the lines of tactical nukes. Even that joker Zaid Hamid loses his sense of humor when he talks about Cold Start

 

[Yusuf]

What is the credibility against Chinese Megaton nukes or their neutron or hydrogen bombs??
600 IRBM's are pointed at India from Tibet. You have a false sense of security if you think we have
reached credibility. For a population of 1.2 billion people our deterrence is minimal at best.

I answered that in my earlier post. Is loss of 200,000 people acceptable to the Chinese?

 

[LETHALFORCE]

I answered that in my earlier post. Is loss of 200,000 people acceptable to the Chinese?

This is hard to answer Yusuf. I think they value their cities/economy more than people.
2 good examples relocating 10 million people during dam construction on Yangtze and
Mao killing 30 million of his own people. If a nuclear with China exchange were to escalate
what is plan B for India?? The security net we have is we have many times the fissile
material China has.

 

[Iamanidiot]

Everybody come to this thread

http://defenceforumindia.com/strategic-forces/32337-case-nucler-attack-india-forum-members-excercise.html#post432890

 

[nrj]

Tell me you guys are comfortable with signing CTBT/NPT without going for anymore tests, be it Kt or Mt ?

Because every now and then we are pressurized to sign these declarations. Ask why Indo-EU FTA is not going through? If India executes nuke test and then sign CTBT/NPT very next day then nobody will have problem. Most importantly, west will lose its traditional leverage it has against India.

 

[Yusuf]

This is hard to answer Yusuf. I think they value their cities/economy more than people.
2 good examples relocating 10 million people during dam construction on Yangtze and
Mao killing 30 million of his own people. If a nuclear with China exchange were to escalate
what is plan B for India?? The security net we have is we have many times the fissile
material China has.

You can't do anything to those willing to kill their own men except pray. China is so scared of its people that it keeps bloating figures and building ghost cities and building an breaking and rebuilding to keep the economy going. Sorry I don't think the Chinese will accept anymore losses to their citizens.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Tell me you guys are comfortable with signing CTBT/NPT without going for anymore tests, be it Kt or Mt ?

Because every now and then we are pressurized to sign these declarations. Ask why Indo-EU FTA is not going through? If India executes nuke test and then sign CTBT/NPT very next day then nobody will have problem. Most importantly, west will lose its traditional leverage it has against India.

Even better test and delay signing anything until we feel like it.
The US nuclear deal is in limbo we have not been given NSG
membership or Uranium from a western source. We lose little
to nothing.

 

[Yusuf]

Tell me you guys are comfortable with signing CTBT/NPT without going for anymore tests, be it Kt or Mt ?

Because every now and then we are pressurized to sign these declarations. Ask why Indo-EU FTA is not going through? If India executes nuke test and then sign CTBT/NPT very next day then nobody will have problem. Most importantly, west will lose its traditional leverage it has against India.

There is no pressure to sign CTBT or NPT. NPT is as good as dead. Even the US is yet to ratify CTBT. The treaty in vogue these days is FMCT which India is perfectly comfortable to sign.

 

[Iamanidiot]

@Everyone

Guys post your thoughts here
http://defenceforumindia.com/strategic-forces/32337-case-nucler-attack-india-forum-members-excercise.html#post432902

 

[LETHALFORCE]

There is no pressure to sign CTBT or NPT. NPT is as good as dead. Even the US is yet to ratify CTBT. The treaty in vogue these days is FMCT which India is perfectly comfortable to sign.

The best move India made was placing the Fast Breeder reactors on the
military side.

 

[nrj]

There is no pressure to sign CTBT or NPT. NPT is as good as dead. Even the US is yet to ratify CTBT. The treaty in vogue these days is FMCT which India is perfectly comfortable to sign.

YB, EU is pushing India to sign NPT if the latter wants FTA with a fair trade rules. This is open secret. To sign NPT/CTBT or push its reforms is our decision at the end of the day but we need to end this discrimination by eliminating any leverage west may exercise.

 

[Yusuf]

YB, EU is pushing India to sign NPT if the latter wants FTA with a fair trade rules. This is open secret. To sign NPT/CTBT or push its reforms is our decision at the end of the day but we need to end this discrimination by eliminating any leverage west may exercise.

FTA works both ways. Their struggling economy needs us more. I just attended an exhibition in Bangalore today. One whole pavilion taken by Germans. They make a killing in India. They know India is and will be a great market.

India is ready to sign FMCT. The west should settle for that concession from India.

 

[nrj]

FTA works both ways. Their struggling economy needs us more. I just attended an exhibition in Bangalore today. One whole pavilion taken by Germans. They make a killing in India. They know India is and will be a great market.

India is ready to sign FMCT. The west should settle for that concession from India.

My point is, if we are to sign any binding agreement and we will have to someday if indeed everyone wishes less chaotic multipolar NWO then it should follow only after another fearless nuclear test. I agree that India will not swallow NPT in its current form. Situation is still bit sketchy on wider reforms including NPT/CTBT/UNSC, so I will wait.

 

[Yusuf]

NPT got killed the day nuclear deal was worked out. It gave us rights to segregate our civilian and military reactors. Why does that say?

 

[KS]

Mate,
Please identify a location in India where a megaton range nuke can be tested.
There's no such location.

I agree. There is no place in India to test megaton nukes.Unlike the other big powers who either have huge uninhabited areas remote from human settlements like (China,USSR) or have overseas territories where they were tested (US,France & UK) , India has neither.