India's Nuclear Doctrine

Should India have tested a Megaton warhead during Pokran?


  • Total voters
    168

Singh

Phat Cat
New Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2009
Messages
20,311
Likes
8,403
Country flag
true that city buster type of thermo nuke is for deterrence, but at the end of the day those city busters dont take out enemy nukes, for that you need tactical nukes which can damage enemy storage of missiles and nukes, plus at the end of the day it is not civilians but the military which is going to take decision, so you need tactical nukes for military which is real deterrence. That is why it appears that our planners have tested and played with sub kiloton nukes more then the regular and thermo nukes. If you see the images of the impact after the blast, it will make it clear that they are going for pin point accuracy with small tactical nukes.

lets say for true deterrence enemy should know that we are going to take out 80% of their military, 60-75% of their industrial capacity and about 30-40% of their population, then he will think that risk with nukes are not worth taking, only then deterrence will work (we are not talking about Pakistan here, Pakistanis are insane and they will end up out of world map).
Pakistanis are not insane, imagine 300 Landowning families, a handful of billionaires, a small coterie of Intelligence and army folks own and run the entire country. Why would they screw this up ? If anything they should be terrified of a nuclear war with India.

No First Use Policy is not a rule set in stone.

Jab Hum Harne Lagenge Tab Hum Nukes Marne Lagenge.
 

Bhadra

New Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2011
Messages
11,991
Likes
23,756
Country flag
Since 1999 alone Pakistan's nukes have successfully deterred india from taking war into pakistan.be it 1999 kargil war where india was forced to make it a localized conflict under the shadow of nukes.or be it 20001 parliament attack after which india amassed its army at border but couldnot dare to cross it for fear of nukes. or be it 2008 mumbai attacks after which india all together left option of millitary action under the threat of nukes.In a way Pakistan has successfully attacked india using its strategic assets and simultaneously was able to deter india from militarily attacking pakistan.Its in a way huge success for pakistan that it can attack its 7-times bigger enemy without fear of retribution now.I would rather say pakistan has strategically won over india using its assests only think if pakistan use its army along with assets wat will happen to india then.
Arre Betti Us Phoru Ka Tor Hai Hamare pass...

 
Last edited by a moderator:

arnabmit

Homo Communis Indus
New Member
Joined
Dec 25, 2012
Messages
6,245
Likes
7,531
Country flag
US asks India, Pak to restrain their nuke, missile programmes

Expressing concern over the continuing buildup of nuclear weapons in South Asia, the US has asked India and Pakistan to restrain their atomic and missile programmes and play a positive role in the global non-proliferation community.

"The United States remains deeply concerned by the dangers posed by the continuing buildup of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems in South Asia," Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Thomas Countryman said in his address to the 2015 Review Conference of the States Parties to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons in Geneva on Monday.

"Consistent with our shared vision of a world without nuclear weapons, the United States has repeatedly called on India and Pakistan to restrain their nuclear and missile programmes; end the production of fissile material for use in nuclear weapons; and support the commencement of negotiations in the Conference on Disarmament of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty," he said.

"In that regard, it is with concern and deep disappointment that we note Pakistan's reluctance to support the start of such negotiations," the US official said.

"We would welcome meaningful trust and confidence-building between these nuclear-armed states; we must find ways to reduce regional tensions and diminish the risk that nuclear weapons could be used, either intentionally or accidentally, in a crisis," he said.

The United States, he said continues to encourage both India and Pakistan to play a positive role in the global non-proliferation community and take steps to prevent proliferation, including bringing their strategic trade controls in line with the guidelines of the multilateral supplier regimes.

"We support, in a phased manner, India's goal of joining the four multilateral export control regimes," he said, adding that the US remains cognizant of its non-proliferation commitments and objectives when considering how to conduct its bilateral relations with any country.

"Our activities with both India and Pakistan continue to be consistent with our NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty) obligations and with our commitment as members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group," Countryman said according to a copy of the speech provided here.
 

arnabmit

Homo Communis Indus
New Member
Joined
Dec 25, 2012
Messages
6,245
Likes
7,531
Country flag
Watch nuclear new boy India

WHILE the United States beats the war drums over North Korea and Iran's long-ranged nuclear armed missiles – which they don't even possess – Washington remains curiously silent about the arrival of the world's newest member of the big nuke club – India.

In January, Delhi revealed a new, 800km-ranged submarine launched missile (SLBM) designated K-15. Twelve of these strategic, nuclear-armed missiles will be carried by India's first of a class of domestically built nuclear-powered submarine, Arihant. India is also working on another SLBM, K-5, with a range of some 2, 800km.

These new nuclear subs and their SLBM's will give India the capability to strike many high-value targets around the globe. Equally important, they complete India's nuclear triad of nuclear weapons delivered by aircraft, missiles, and now sea that will be invulnerable to a decapitating first strike from either Pakistan or China.

Last February, it was revealed that India is fast developing a new, long-ranged, three-stage ballistic missile, Agni-VI. This powerful missile is said to be able to carry up to 10 independently targetable nuclear warheads, known as MIRV's.

Agni-VI's range is believed to be at least 10,000km, putting all of China, Japan, Australia, and Russia in its range. A new 15,000km missile capable of hitting North America is also in the works under cover of India's civilian space programme. India is also developing accurate cruise missiles and miniaturised nuclear warheads to fit into their small diameter.

These important strategic developments will put India ahead of other nuclear powers France, Britain, North Korea, and Pakistan, about equal in striking power to Israel and China, and not too far behind the United States and Russia.

Delhi says it needs a nuclear triad because of the growing threat of China, whose conventional and nuclear forces are being rapidly modernised.

This writer has been reporting on the nuclear arms race between India and China since the late 1990"²s. China has replaced Pakistan as India's primary nuclear threat. Even so, Indian and Pakistani nuclear forces remain on a frightening hair-trigger alert within only a 3-5 minute warning time of enemy attack, making the Kashmir cease-fire line (or Line of Control) the world's most dangerous border.

The Bush administration began quietly aiding India's nuclear programme with nuclear fuel when India had a shortage of fissile material. Some advanced technology from the US and India's second largest arms supplier, Israel, has also aided Delhi's nuclear and missile delivery programmes.

India, as I wrote years ago after one of its big nuclear tests, is feeling its "nuclear Viagra". Most Indians take great pride in their strategic nuclear programmes as their way into the great power's exclusive nuclear club.

But not all Indians are so delighted, particularly those on the left who ask how their nation, with one third of all the world's poorest people, can afford to spend tens of billions on advanced weapons, including nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, and ICBM's. According to the World Bank, 32.7% of Indians subsist below the international poverty level of US$1.25 daily, and 68.7% on less than US$2 daily. Aid agencies say 33% of Indian children are malnourished.

Delhi is making steady progress in reducing poverty and disease, and in trying to break down the pernicious caste system that dooms a quarter of Indians to lives of misery.

This, critics claim, is no time to be posturing as a world power when Mother India still has feet of clay.

The Bush administration was totally unaware that India's advent as a major nuclear power whose weapons might one day challenge the United States. Bush & Co wanted India to bulk up as a competitor to China, a permanent enemy of the Republican hard right. Today's Republicans think similarly.

India is a great democracy where politicians, not generals, make policy. She is a staunch friend of the United States, where over one million Indians now live. True enough, but we have seen there are no permanent friends in world politics, only permanent interests.

One day mighty India may vie for influence with the US for Middle East and Central Asian oil, and control of the Indian Ocean's vital sea lanes. But not today, as all eyes are on pipsqueak North Korea and dilapidated Iran.

====================================

Must be written by a Paki... :hmm:
 
Last edited:

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

Detests Jholawalas
New Member
Joined
Apr 28, 2012
Messages
7,114
Likes
7,762
BJP's manifesto about nuclear policy:

Independent Strategic Nuclear Programme
BJP believes that the strategic gains acquired by India during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee regime on the
nuclear programme have been frittered away by the Congress. Our emphasis was, and remains on,
beginning of a new thrust on framing policies that would serve India's national interest in the 21st
century. We will follow a two-pronged independent nuclear programme, unencumbered by foreign
pressure and influence, for civilian and military purposes, especially as nuclear power is a major
contributor to India's energy sector.
BJP will:
Study in detail India's nuclear doctrine, and revise and update it, to make it relevant to challenges
of current times.
Maintain a credible minimum deterrent that is in tune with changing geostatic realities.

Invest in India's indigenous Thorium Technology Programme.
Hopefully we will see a revamp in the policy!!
 

Agustya

New Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2014
Messages
69
Likes
26
Country flag
true that city buster type of thermo nuke is for deterrence, but at the end of the day those city busters dont take out enemy nukes, for that you need tactical nukes which can damage enemy storage of missiles and nukes, plus at the end of the day it is not civilians but the military which is going to take decision, so you need tactical nukes for military which is real deterrence. That is why it appears that our planners have tested and played with sub kiloton nukes more then the regular and thermo nukes. If you see the images of the impact after the blast, it will make it clear that they are going for pin point accuracy with small tactical nukes.

lets say for true deterrence enemy should know that we are going to take out 80% of their military, 60-75% of their industrial capacity and about 30-40% of their population, then he will think that risk with nukes are not worth taking, only then deterrence will work (we are not talking about Pakistan here, Pakistanis are insane and they will end up out of world map).
Are you suggesting going against first use policy?The minute India uses a nuclear counterforce measure like you suggested against China , India will be finished. You may take out a few of their warheads / delivery systems, sure. But then you should also expect an JL-2's reigning in on Mumbai and Delhi. What is left of India will be taken care of by 5 megaton beasts transported by DF-5. I hate to say this, but there is no way of having only one side reduced. No one gets away scot free. Tactical nukes are useless when the balloon goes up.

And a side note, I don't think China cares about losing 30-40% of their population. May I remind you of the Belgrade embassy bombing. Chinese were ready to go to war with USA. They didn't care if 300 million died, because another 300 million would survive.

All I'm trying to say is, if India has no choice but to take a panga with China and expect mutually assured destruction, it needs to test a MT thermonuclear .Otherwise India wont survive, but China will.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CCP

CCP

New Member
Joined
Jan 19, 2014
Messages
1,204
Likes
196
Are you suggesting going against first use policy?The minute India uses a nuclear counterforce measure like you suggested against China , India will be finished. You may take out a few of their warheads / delivery systems, sure. But then you should also expect an JL-2's reigning in on Mumbai and Delhi. What is left of India will be taken care of by 5 megaton beasts transported by DF-5. I hate to say this, but there is no way of having only one side reduced. No one gets away scot free. Tactical nukes are useless when the balloon goes up.

And a side note, I don't think China cares about losing 30-40% of their population. May I remind you of the Belgrade embassy bombing. Chinese were ready to go to war with USA. They didn't care if 300 million died, because another 300 million would survive.

All I'm trying to say is, if India has no choice but to take a panga with China and expect mutually assured destruction, it needs to test a MT thermonuclear .Otherwise India wont survive, but China will.
There are 3 tests for a country to be recognized as with credible nuclear strike capability .

1.Thermonuclear test (US,RU,UK,CN,FR)

2.Missile with Nuclear warhead test (US,RU,CN,FR)

3.Full range ICBM test.(US,RU,CN)

You have to success at least one time for each testes to collect data for computer simulation.

so,only 3 counties on the earth done all those 3 tests.

India has not done any of those tests.
 
Last edited:

bose

New Member
Joined
Apr 5, 2010
Messages
4,921
Likes
5,963
Country flag
Are you suggesting going against first use policy?The minute India uses a nuclear counterforce measure like you suggested against China , India will be finished. You may take out a few of their warheads / delivery systems, sure. But then you should also expect an JL-2's reigning in on Mumbai and Delhi. What is left of India will be taken care of by 5 megaton beasts transported by DF-5. I hate to say this, but there is no way of having only one side reduced. No one gets away scot free. Tactical nukes are useless when the balloon goes up.

And a side note, I don't think China cares about losing 30-40% of their population. May I remind you of the Belgrade embassy bombing. Chinese were ready to go to war with USA. They didn't care if 300 million died, because another 300 million would survive.

All I'm trying to say is, if India has no choice but to take a panga with China and expect mutually assured destruction, it needs to test a MT thermonuclear .Otherwise India wont survive, but China will.
India has already achieved the capability of a 200KN Thermo Nuclear device... The challenge for India is not range for a ICBM but MIRV which it is working and soon we will see the result...

Isreal has not tested any nuclear device that does not mean that Isreal do not have a creditable deterrence capability...It is believed that Isreal too have capability of thermo nuclear devices...
 

CCP

New Member
Joined
Jan 19, 2014
Messages
1,204
Likes
196
India has already achieved the capability of a 200KN Thermo Nuclear device... The challenge for India is not range for a ICBM but MIRV which it is working and soon we will see the result...
.
any link? your mother 's friend's son told you that?
 

bose

New Member
Joined
Apr 5, 2010
Messages
4,921
Likes
5,963
Country flag
any link? your mother 's friend's son told you that?
Last week when I met Defense Minister of India, he told me that...

Next time when I meet him again I will ask for a link for you specially...
 

Agustya

New Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2014
Messages
69
Likes
26
Country flag
There are 3 tests for a country to be recognized as with credible nuclear strike capability .

1.Thermonuclear test (US,RU,UK,CN,FR)

2.Missile with Nuclear warhead test (US,RU,CN,FR)

3.Full range ICBM test.(US,RU,CN)

You have to success at least one time for each testes to collect data for computer simulation.

so,only 3 counties on the earth done all those 3 tests.

India has not done any of those tests.
number 2 and 3 are redundant. But you're right . India does need to test thermonuclear. India has accurate delivery systems so anything over 3 MT would diminish utility . Also, to counter China, India should nuclear-arm Vietnam as tit for tat with what China did to Pakistan.

There can only be peace if there is mutually assured destruction .
 

Agustya

New Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2014
Messages
69
Likes
26
Country flag
India has already achieved the capability of a 200KN Thermo Nuclear device... The challenge for India is not range for a ICBM but MIRV which it is working and soon we will see the result...

Isreal has not tested any nuclear device that does not mean that Isreal do not have a creditable deterrence capability...It is believed that Isreal too have capability of thermo nuclear devices...
Israel tested in South Africa. And don't tell me we reached 200KT capability until we tested in reality - not some virtual simulation subject to engineering errors.
 

CCP

New Member
Joined
Jan 19, 2014
Messages
1,204
Likes
196
number 2 and 3 are redundant. But you're right . India does need to test thermonuclear. India has accurate delivery systems so anything over 3 MT would diminish utility . Also, to counter China, India should nuclear-arm Vietnam as tit for tat with what China did to Pakistan.
no.2 and 3 is not redundant at all.
besides the propose to collect data, you have to let other countries know you can do such thing for sure(before you really need to use them).
 
Last edited:

Agustya

New Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2014
Messages
69
Likes
26
Country flag
no.2 and 3 is not redundant at all.
besides the propose to collect data you have to let other countries know you can do such thing for sure(before you really need to use them).
Maybe the next government will do so.
 

bose

New Member
Joined
Apr 5, 2010
Messages
4,921
Likes
5,963
Country flag
Israel tested in South Africa. .
When ?? Did Isreal claimed it ??

And don't tell me we reached 200KT capability until we tested in reality - not some virtual simulation subject to engineering errors.
Building 200KT is not a challenge but miniaturization of device for MIRV is... India is in a stage to extrapolate the learnings from the last test to get to the 200KT equivalent...
 

bose

New Member
Joined
Apr 5, 2010
Messages
4,921
Likes
5,963
Country flag
no.2 and 3 is not redundant at all.
besides the propose to collect data, you have to let other countries know you can do such thing for sure(before you really need to use them).
We care a fig what other countries think...
 

Agustya

New Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2014
Messages
69
Likes
26
Country flag
When ?? Did Isreal claimed it ??



Building 200KT is not a challenge but miniaturization of device for MIRV is... India is in a stage to extrapolate the learnings from the last test to get to the 200KT equivalent...
Israel denies having nukes all together. Why would they claim it?

Lets hope that happen soon. When a 10 MIRV SLBM w/ 8000km range is on the Arihant, then no one can pull down India's lungi.
 

bose

New Member
Joined
Apr 5, 2010
Messages
4,921
Likes
5,963
Country flag
Israel denies having nukes all together. Why would they claim it?
This is my point exactly... no one will give proof of one's capability and keep those in secracy... Isreal has around 80 to 100 nuclear device and there are reports that they also have achieved the thermo nuclear capability...

I had posted some time back on my one to one talk with my Mama [Mother's brother] who was very close to us, he was working or associated with the initiative in 80's and he claimed 10 years before the last test that India has achieved the capability of producing thermo nuclear device which I did not believed them... These types of capability will never come to public domain.


Lets hope that happen soon. When a 10 MIRV SLBM w/ 8000km range is on the Arihant, then no one can pull down India's lungi.
It is to be remembered that India do not have the luxary of the P5's of going on testing after testing as they wish and when they are done with it they came up with the monitorium of testing for themselves and others... India finds at dis advantaged here in this situation... New testing now will be detrimental for India at this time as any more technology sanctions will push India more than 10 years at least... So I do not see next government will test any time soon...

Untill India reach the MIRV capability a single AGNI - V with ~ 8000 KM range will carry such thermo nuclear devices to target...
 

archie

New Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2013
Messages
540
Likes
381
Country flag
no.2 and 3 is not redundant at all.
besides the propose to collect data, you have to let other countries know you can do such thing for sure(before you really need to use them).
From an Engineering perspective its not a big deal.... and yes 2 and 3 are redundant.... Any logical person will conclude the capability.. Dependability will increase over time...

You should ask your planners if they are worried or not!
 

Articles

Top