Indian Role in Afghanistan

[Samar Rathi]

Nn 2010 President Obama, overruled the generals at ISAF and NTM-A, and authorized a smaller, substantially less trained, and substantially less equipped ANSF. President Obama had good reasons from his point of view. He perhaps feared that the Pakistani Army and GCC would view the ANSF as a major threat and retaliate by supporting Al Qaeda and the Taliban. President Obama also might have been unsure the international community could over the long term fund an ANSF with a budget of more than $4.3 billion per year. That $4.3 billion long term ANSF budget has now been increased to $4.6 billion per year. Another reason why some Afghans believe President Obama was so reticent about supporting an Afghan victory against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in 2009 and 2010 might have been because of Afghanistan's close friendship or de facto alliance with India, Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

It is very unlikely the Taliban could ever decisively defeat the ANSF, just as the ANSF currently constituted cannot decisively defeat the Taliban. Neither has the TO/E, OOB and international support to decisively defeat the other. I have seen no evidence that the Deep State GHQ or GCC establishment are willing to surge the Taliban and Al Qaeda capacity substantially from current levels.

The Afghans are likely to remain deeply dependent on India, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Japan, China, Europe, America, South Korea, Australia and Canada for the foreseeable future. Japan's $1 billion a year in aid to Afghanistan remains crucial to funding the Afghan Ministry of Interior (Afghan National Police) and their training.

The Chinese are increasingly concerned about America's long term commitment to help the Afghans fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda. As a result they are starting discussion with India about how China and India can jointly help the Afghans:

China is increasingly targeted by ISIS, Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists.

Of course, Russia, India, China, Turkey, Japan, and the Europeans would greatly prefer collaborating with America to support the Afghans.

Given the significant threat of Al Qaeda and the Taliban attacking the American homeland (and the Chinese, Russian, Indian, Iranian, Turkish, European, Canadian, Australian, Iraqi, Syrian, Israeli, Palestinian, African, Malaysian, Thai, Indonesian homelands); and the danger of Al Qaeda and the Taliban capturing chemical and nuclear weapons, it is unlikely that the ANSF will not continue to receive massive international support for many years to come.

"The Afghanistan forces will not survive on their own"
Similarly the USSR could not survive against the Nazis in WWII without substantial international help.

Provided the ANSF gets $5 billion in funding per year, Afghans might survive on their own but it's still a mystery .The Afghans have survived on their own controlling all the battle-space of Afghanistan for over a year with little ISAF support.

 

[Samar Rathi]

Major General MG Karimi's ANATC (ANA Training Command) needs a lot more training seats to support the ANAF, and to maintain and operate the rest of the equipment skew stack in the ANSF.

C130s are easier to maintain than C27s. Even the US airforce is phasing out their relatively new C27s partly because of high maintenance costs.

The Afghans have asked India to become the lead adviser for the ANAF. India has considerable expertise operating C130s and could help the Afghans effectively operate them. Turkey could similarly help the ANAF operate C130s. So could the US and other countries.

The Afghans have requested India purchase new AN-32s for the ANAF; which could be used for smaller payloads.

The Afghans have on a related note requested that India donate the 550 D30 artillery pieces that India is currently retiring from the Indian Army. In the past President Obama opposed countries donating artillery to the ANA, however his views might be different now.

India Stepping Up to the Plate in Afghanistan
A deal with Moscow makes clear that India has no plans to abandon Afghanistan post 2014.

In a recent deal with Moscow, India has agreed to pay for military equipment sourced from Russia to Afghanistan. The equipment will include artillery, helicopters, tanks, and armored vehicles. India will also pay to repair old Soviet hardware left behind after the Russian withdrawal in 1989. The scale and exact composition of the deal have yet to be announced, but it is known that the first order has already been placed. India had so far hesitated to provide lethal weapons to Afghanistan for fear of antagonizing Pakistan. However, the deal suggests a rethink in the halls of South Block on India's role in the region after the ISAF withdrawal.

The reason behind that rethink is fairly simple: the winds of change that are blowing this year in Afghanistan. The ISAF is winding down its presence and a new president is about to be elected in the country's first democratic transfer of power. These transitions have prompted Afghanistan's neighbors to accelerate their thinking about the future of the region. India has frequently expressed a desire to see the emergence of a strong, stable and independent Afghanistan. With foreign forces no longer taking the lead role, the only way to ensure stability in Afghanistan – and by extension in the region – is to help increase the capabilities of its young army. Other interests are also at stake. Any economic assistance provided by India to Afghanistan would be stripped of meaning if the latter was not strong enough to defend the products of the assistance. Moreover, India needs Afghanistan to be able to defend the former's business investments, stalled for nearly three years.

Considering these mounting pressures and the limited time available to respond, it is not surprising that India changed its mind on supplying arms to Afghanistan. The decision comes as a follow up to the promise made in the Strategic Partnership Agreement between the two countries in 2011, in which India agreed to assist in "training, equipping, and capacity building programmes" to strengthen the Afghan National Security Forces.

India has, however, played its cards close to its chest. Earlier in February, External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, visiting Kandahar to inaugurate an agricultural university built with Indian aid, said that India would be providing helicopters and transport aircraft as per Afghanistan's wishes. This was "consistent with [India's] approach – building capacity, providing training," he said. But he also pointed out that India was "not in the game of giving people large scale equipment which is lethal."

Afghanistan had expressed an urgent need for military hardware, particularly after a few skirmishes along its border with Pakistan. President Hamid Karzai, on his visits to India, presented Delhi with a wish list consisting of T-72 battle tanks, 105 mm howitzers, An-32 transport aircraft, and Mi-17 helicopters along with bridge-laying equipment and trucks. Afghanistan has long expected assistance from India, making the case for mutual cooperation in the face of security threats from Pakistan.

From Afghanistan's point of view, India's deal with Russia is a welcome move. The ISAF drawdown has left about 51,000 ISAF troops in the country, down from 140,000 in 2011. Both France and Canada ended their combat missions early and the UK has withdrawn from all but one Forward Operating Base in Helmand. Around 335 military bases across the country have been handed over to Afghan troops, according to a statement by the Military Bases Transition Commission. U.S. officials have recently resumed discussion on how many troops should remain in Afghanistan after this year. This number might drop below 10,000, the minimum demanded by the U.S. military to train Afghan troops.

Afghanistan is running out of options for sourcing military equipment. The country has been pushing for a more modern force that can defend not only against Taliban militants but also against external aggression. Most of the hardware brought to the country by ISAF will be repatriated with the troops. Pakistan is already laying claim to some of the hardware that will be left behind. With many decisions still in the balance, Afghanistan has to look for other alternatives.

"The equipment profile of the Afghan army is almost zero," says former Director-General of Military Intelligence (Retd.) Lt. General Ravi K. Sawhney, "But the U.S. is withholding equipment, even though Afghanistan means to use it only for defense." To meet these added responsibilities and future challenges, Afghanistan has turned to India and Russia for assistance.

Diverting sales through Russia solves two logistical problems for India: direct physical access to Afghanistan's borders and India's own shortage of weapons. Moreover, most of India's arsenal comprises Soviet and Russian weapons and under its sales agreements with Russia it cannot re-export these weapons to a third country. In fact, Delhi had long argued that contractual issues with Russian suppliers had to be worked out before any sale could take place, perhaps a convenient stonewalling measure. There is an added advantage for Afghanistan in this deal: some of the more experienced officers in the Afghan army are already familiar with Russian equipment from the Soviet period and will find it easier to handle them.

So what can we expect in the future? More of the same, say analysts. The new government in India is expected to fulfill commitments already made. Two options seem to have been ruled out: selling small arms that could find their way to Kashmir and putting boots on the ground in Afghanistan. Indian defense policymakers remain opposed to training Afghan officers on Afghan soil (also on the Afghan wish list) but some workshops could be held where Indian engineers could train Afghans in the repair and maintenance of hardware. Afghanistan has already asked for Indian help in setting up Base Repair Workshops. However, this remains a risky and expensive endeavor. However, work with ANA officers and soldiers in India could definitely be expanded to include special operations training and joint counter-terrorism exercises.

Cooperation could also be furthered along the lines of intelligence sharing, recruitment, communication and logistics, which would help Afghan forces in covert operations. Under the Strategic Partnership Agreement, both countries agreed to hold regular Strategic Dialogues "to provide a framework for cooperation in the area of national security." The dialogue has yet to take place. India, which has a very well established army and a long military tradition, can help Afghanistan strengthen systems such as the links between the Ministry of Defense and Army headquarters and selection boards.

Also likely is greater cooperation between the new governments that will come to power this year in both countries. An increase in diplomatic staffing, to a level similar to that of the U.S., can also be expected. The deal with Russia is a clear sign that India will not abandon Afghanistan after 2014 and nor will it renege on its promises.

India Stepping Up to the Plate in Afghanistan | The Diplomat

 

[amoy]

Show time for SCO in full swing in AFG :thumb:

A 5-year-old piece questioning the role of SCO >> The SCO Role in Afghanistan for review and looking forward

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization -- comprising Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan -- projects what some observers believe are ambitions to be a regional counterpoint to NATO. Yet the organization's first invitation to the United States to attend its March 27 meeting in Moscow has aroused interest about a potential partnership for stabilizing Afghanistan. President Barack Obama announced a shift in U.S. policy emphasis on the same day as the SCO summit, and greater consultation with Afghanistan's neighbors is a part of the new template.

The Moscow meeting also has stirred interest because Iran, a state with SCO observer status, is due to attend, marking the first high-level contact between Tehran and officials of the Obama administration.

CFR Senior Fellow Evan Feigenbaum, until recently the State Department's deputy assistant secretary for South and Central Asia, says the meeting "offers an opportunity for the United States to try to turn what are ostensibly common interests [in Afghanistan] into complementary polices." The organization alarmed Washington in 2005 when it issued a communiqué calling for the United States to set a timeline for withdrawal from military bases in Central Asia. Such bases are crucial to supplying the U.S.-led counterinsurgency effort in Afghanistan.

Feigenbaum says the call for a withdrawal timeline in 2005 "attracted a lot of notoriety; it also attracted a lot of diplomatic efforts by the United States to make sure that the organization didn't repeat that call. And so, if you notice after 2005, the declarations of the organization in 2006, 2007, and 2008 didn't repeat that and indeed, it started to talk about things like economic cooperation with Afghanistan. So in that respect, I think, that created the potential, not necessarily for cooperation, but at least for coordination on complementary interests."

But Feigenbaum says while individual members of the SCO have played constructive roles in Afghanistan, it's unclear what measures the organization can take as a group. "We really don't understand what the SCO is in part because SCO members themselves don't know what the SCO is," he says. "Is it a security group? Is it a trade bloc? Is it a group of non-democratic countries that have created a kind of safe zone where the United States and Europeans don't talk to them about human rights and democracy?"

 

[amoy]

SCO shall be pivotal in post NATO Afghanistan for the collective security. It's pointless to single out China and India, needless to remind India isn't even bordering AFG.

A 3-year-old article >> Afghanistan: NATO Out, SCO In?

The organization considers this to be an appropriate step forward given that the Afghan people "gradually take over the responsibility for all key areas of life in the country, including ensuring the security and socioeconomic development of the IRA [Islamic Republic of Afghanistan], [and the] emergence of a friendly Afghanistan as an independent, peaceful and prosperous state," according to an SCO statement (http://www.sectsco.org/EN/show.asp?id=286).

The possibility of Kabul moving closer to the SCO was discussed at the Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in Almaty last week. The announcement on Afghanistan's future relations with the SCO will be made at the organization's annual summit in Astana on June 15. To date Afghanistan has participated in SCO activities as a guest. The SCO consists of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia and India have observer status with the organization.

Starting this year, the SCO plans to apply the five-year Counter-narcotics Strategy that aims at reducing drug production in Afghanistan (KAZINFORM, May 14). The SCO has wanted deeper involvement in Afghanistan's security and economy for a number of years.

After gaining observer status, Kabul might seek full membership.

Even when the worst-case scenario happens Russia and China shall intervene jointly under the flag of SCO group.

Russia offers SCO to strike border deal against Afghan threats | Russia & India Report

Russia proposed to the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) to conclude a framework agreement on border co-operation to remove after-effects of possibly worse situation in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers from the SCO states in the Tajik capital on Thursday.

"Today further joint efforts for effective response to current events in the world and region is on the agenda," he said, adding that "This is primarily the situation in Afghanistan with due account of "the factor of 2014."

"We welcomed presidential elections in that country, but their results are unclear yet," the Russian foreign minister said, adding that "Risks of "collapse" persist in the situation after withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan and instability engulfing Central Asian region."

Possibility of "soft-partitioning" Afghanistan shall not be ruled out IMO in the event of Afghanistan situation totally out of control in order to preserve stakeholders' interest, and to avoid spill-over effects. Pakistan, Iran each may take a slice together with SCO, to prop up various proxies while perhaps maintaining a figurehead in Kabul.

 

[Ray]

Is this thread only to post commentaries or are we allowed to comment?

 

[cobra commando]

India greets Afghanistan on its Independence Day, assures support

New Delhi: India's top leaders on Tuesday felicitated the president and people of Afghanistan on the country's Independence Day. In his message, Prime Minister Narendra Modi noted that "India's ties with Afghanistan are strong and will grow further in the coming years. "India assures full support to government and people of Afghanistan in their efforts to create a peaceful, united, democratic and prosperous nation," a statement from the prime minister's office quoted him as saying. Afghanistan celebrates its Independence Day on 19 August to mark the signing of the 1919 Anglo-Afghan treaty, which gave the country complete independence. In his message, President Pranab Mukherjee said traditional ties of friendship between India and Afghanistan have "gained strength and substance" in recent years. India, which has committed $2 billion for Afghanistan's reconstruction and rehabilitation, is one of the top donors to the war-torn country. Indian companies have built transmission centres and power lines there, besides constructing the Afghan parliament building. "I am confident that our close cooperation will continue to contribute to the development and progress of Afghanistan and stability in the region. A strong, united and prosperous Afghanistan is in the interest of India," Mukherjee said.
India greets Afghanistan on its Independence Day, assures support - Livemint

 

[cobra commando]

HAL readies Cheetal delivery for Afghanistan air force

Indian state-owned airframer Hindustan Aeronautics is to deliver three Cheetal light helicopters to Afghanistan's air force next month. The unarmed helicopters will be transferred via commercial cargo plane to Kabul airport, from the company's Bengaluru-based helicopter division. The Cheetal is a re-engined variant of the Cheetah Рa license- produced version of the A̩rospatiale Alouette II-based SA-315. The Cheetal is powered by a Turbomeca TM 333 2M2 turboshaft, which generates 1,100shp (820kW). This is double the 550shp generated by the Artouste III B that originally powered the Chetak РHAL's license-produced version of the A̩rospatiale Alouette III, or SA-316. The modern engine allows operations up to 23,000ft, with a greater payload and improved fuel efficiency. The type's range and endurance increase to 345nm (640km) and almost 4h, respectively. The Indian air force last year received its last Cheetal from a 10-strong order placed in 2006. The service operates the helicopter for high-altitude missions. The Indian army placed an order for 20 of the type in February 2013, with deliveries expected to be complete by 2017. HAL says it has manufactured more than 347 Chetak and 275 Cheetah helicopters since license production began in Bengaluru 45 years ago Рmore than the type's original manufacturer.
HAL readies Cheetal delivery for Afghanistan air force - 8/27/2014 - Flight Global

HAL Cheetal in high-altitude testing (credit: HAL)

 

[Ahsan Bin Tufail]

"Afghans share a lot of common cultural material with us".
VaySena1, Can you explain it, please? Just from learning point of view. There is no doubt in my mind that all South Asian Nations share common culture is some way.

 

[Ashutosh Lokhande]

"Afghans share a lot of common cultural material with us".
VaySena1, Can you explain it, please? Just from learning point of view. There is no doubt in my mind that all South Asian Nations share common culture is some way.

Use '@' before using any name of DFI member. That way he will get a notification that someone has mentioned him in a post.

 

[Ahsan Bin Tufail]

Thank you @Ashutosh Lokhande

 

[cobra commando]

India-specific Afghan policy in the works; China wants New Delhi to play an active role, post NATO pull-out | Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis

 

[cobra commando]

Afghan civil servants to be trained in India - Oneindia

New Delhi, Nov 21: Afghan civil servants will now be trained at the Jindal University at Sonepat in Haryana.The university will welcome the first batch of senior Afghan civil servants in the next few months, it said in a statement. These civil servants hold the ranks of director general to deputy directors in various Afghan government ministries."These civil servants will be trained ... in topics like leadership, human resource management, law and justice, organisational change, good governance and post-conflict institution building," it said.Ashraf Haidari, deputy chief of mission of the Afghan embassy here, was quoted as saying that the current focus in Kabul was to strengthen civilian institutions.He said: "Although the international community has invested in reconstruction of Afghanistan, it has concentrated mostly on the military and security sectors."Not enough has not been done to build the civilian state structures, which are essential for a sustainable transition towards self-reliance and peace."Haidari added: "With India, there is a cultural affinity. In India too there are problems, but there are also institutions that have succeeded. India is a democracy that learns from its mistakes and we want to learn from that."

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Afghanistan unhappy over delay in supply of arms from India - The Hindu

 

[ezsasa]

Regarding the matter of india not giving weapons to afghan forces, would say that we can give funds to buy arms but not give indian made arms directly.

There have are enough incidents in Afghanistan were nato provided arms are sold to Taliban and local warlords on black market.

In all probability 6 months from the day india provides the arms there is no doubt in my mind we will find indian made weapons in some terrorist attack in pak. Baki guys anyways try to blame india anything that happens over there, why take chances.

 

[Kshatriya87]

The answer is below...

Balochistan is fine. What is the probability of the rest of the independent states happening?

 

[rock127]

Balochistan is fine. What is the probability of the rest of the independent states happening?

Greater Afganistan has chances after Free Balochistan.

Afgans should get back the land which Pakis illegally and forcefully occupy beyond Durand Line.

Pakistan has destroyed Afganistan and treat them like their slaves.

 

[pmaitra]

Greater Afganistan has chances after Free Balochistan.

Afgans should get back the land which Pakis illegally and forcefully occupy beyond Durand Line.

Pakistan has destroyed Afganistan and treat them like their slaves.

Check your flag.

Afghan Flag

 

[Free Karma]

India seeks land for consulate in Nangarhar - thenews.com.pk

Acting Indian Consul in Afghanistan, Rajiv Goswami, has demanded the Afghan government to provide land for the building of Indian consulate in Nangarhar province.

According to an official statement of Nangarhar government available with the Afghan Islamic Press (AIP), Rajiv Goswami called on Nangarhar Acting Governor Maulvi Attaullah Lodin on Thursday in a bid to expand diplomatic ties between the two countries.

He demanded Lodin to provide land for Indian consulate in Nangarhar besides resolving the issue of electricity. On the occasion, Governor Lodin stressed on strengthening of diplomatic ties between the two countries and asked India to provide opportunity to Afghan clerics to acquire religious education in Deoband, a religious seminary in India.

He also demanded scholarships for Afghan students belonging to Nangarhar in India besides easing visas process for Afghan patients in India. The governor assured that a technical team had been formed for providing land for Indian consulate in Nangarhar.

This will be our 5th one, after Herat, Jalalabad, Mazar-eSarif and Kandahar.

Funny words this news source uses "demanded", to make it look like we are evil.

Okay, even more weird stuff: I cannot find any "Rajiv Goswami" http://eoi.gov.in/kabul/?0295?000 ....maybe fake news?

 

[LETHALFORCE]

US sees key India role in Afghanistan | The Asian Age

 

[LETHALFORCE]

India funds 5 new projects under $120 million SDP in Afghanistan - Khaama Press (KP) | Afghan News Agency