Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[tomthounaojam]

I regret choosing (((New Tax Regime))) every month i get my payslip.

Am too in the new regime, the Rs 50,000 standard deduction needs to be revised. I was hoping for some relief with inflation keeping in mind.

 

[Crazywithmath]

About a trillion rupee will go unspent from the budgeted estimates on the capex front before the FY 2023-24 concludes; unless they decide to go super aggressive throughout Feb and March 2024 (seems very difficult - if not outright impossible) - in line with the slowdown in cement/construction sector. Also missed the disinvestment target by a huge margin. I don't know why there is so little accountability and so much incompetence all around.

 

[indiatester]

I regret choosing (((New Tax Regime))) every month i get my payslip.

I save ~1 lakh because of new regime.
Primarily because I have no housing loan.

 

[jackprince]

Guess I have to pay the same tax, no relief for us.

Middle class stopped mattering for Modi after 2014. He has learnt that given his alternative is worse, those of middle class who voted for him will vote for him again. So he needs to focus on appeasing.

 

[Jimih]

 

[Hari Sud]

India should target $10 trillion economy by 2030/31. To achieve that, borrow more and raise the growth to 10% of GDP. Hence do anything to reach the target. With that, there will be roughly a trillion in exports. That will be sufficient to be self reliant. Only then and then only US will come running to India to do business. Right now they are too dependent on China. Thanks to the Wall Street excessive emphasis on profits, they are accepting low grade consumer products from China because these are cheap.……. Shame on them.

 

[karn]

@Crazywithmath thoughts ?

 

[FalconSlayers]

Nominal GDP in 2024-25 is expected to be ₹327 trillion. Meaning we won't touch $4 trillion even this time.

 

[another_armchair]

'Finally...': upGrad founder reacts as shareholders ask Byju to step down

Ed-tech platform upGrad co-founder Ronnie Screwvala has reacted to reports of shareholders seeking to oust Byju's founders. He expressed hope that the shareholders would prioritize the credibility of the ed-tech sector and India as an investment destination.

www.livemint.com

The central government is likely to receive a record equity dividend of ₹63,056 crore from 67 listed public-sector undertakings (PSUs) for FY23, a report said.

This is 24.7% higher than the dividend of ₹50,583 crore received in FY22 and more than double of ₹29,049 crore for FY19, a pre-pandemic financial year, Business Standard reported.

Why would they divest profit making ones for cheap? Way PSU stocks have rallied, we might see some stake sale at the price Govt. deems it right instead of selling it 'cheap'.

Even after the IPO, Govt. still owns 96.5% of LIC.

 

[Crazywithmath]

Nominal GDP in 2024-25 is expected to be ₹327 trillion. Meaning we won't touch $4 trillion even this time.

They are being conservative for obvious reasons. Look at their deficit maths. Forget next year's - even the FAE of FY 2023-24 is quite conservative in itself.

Not to mention how incredibly difficult it is to project USDINR and real growth in these challenging times.

 

[another_armchair]

Budget 2024: Govt's lower fiscal deficit target a boost to investor confidence

The government has set its fiscal deficit target for FY25 at 5.1% of GDP

www.livemint.com

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s pre-poll budget sent a strong signal to the market and to rating agencies on how the Indian government will lower its debt level–fiscal deficit is to be cut to 5.1% of gross domestic product in FY25, from 5.9% in FY24.

The finance minister also said the fiscal deficit estimate for FY24 has been revised to 5.8% of GDP, from the 5.9% estimated earlier for the financial year.

^This is a key takeaway from today's interim budget speech.

 

[Crazywithmath]

@Crazywithmath thoughts ?

Easy investor money has dried up globally and the EU economies are in total shambles. So many companies are failing - not sure what to conclude. Also, FDI as % of GDP is useless and just a clever play on numbers (cheenis have been experiencing a declining trend here for some time now).

As a matter of fact, FDI into pretty much every emerging economy of note declined sharply in Q3, 2023.

Budget 2024: Govt's lower fiscal deficit target a boost to investor confidence

The government has set its fiscal deficit target for FY25 at 5.1% of GDP

www.livemint.com

^This is a key takeaway from today's interim budget speech.

Can't they project a more realistic number? Are they planning to remain hyper conservative forever? At this rate, Why even project anything at all?

Fiscal deficit should absolu-freakingly plunge below 5% in FY 2023-24. I don't know why they keep overestimating.



Even the IMF has a better track record ffs...

It was obvious from the start.

Their real growth is okay; quite good actually. It is just low WPI (and MonPol) screwing over but then again, I think they are being conservative. In fact, there is a good likelihood of an INR appreciation in FY 2024-25...

 

[Jimih]

Nominal GDP in 2024-25 is expected to be ₹327 trillion. Meaning we won't touch $4 trillion even this time.

It was obvious from the start.

 

[Jimih]

Focus on Telangana

 

[Jimih]

Can't they project a more realistic number? Are they planning to remain hyper conservative forever? At this rate, Why even project anything at all?

Fiscal deficit should absolu-freakingly plunge below 5% in FY 2023-24. I don't know why they keep overestimating.

Even the IMF has a better track record ffs...

'Fiscally Prudent' regime under Modi mein yeh haal hain

Just imagine what will be our state if current 'freebies obsessed' opposition parties comes to power in coming elections.

For eg, all India OPS ke liye tayyari chal rahi hain by the opposition.

 

[Crazywithmath]

'Fiscally Prudent' regime under Modi mein yeh haal hain

Just imagine what will be our state if current 'freebies obsessed' opposition parties comes to power in coming elections.

For eg, OPS toh le hi doobegi desh ko

This 'OPS' promise in itself was a massive jhumla. Opp ruled states wanted some easy money because the Union Govt was slapping a lot of conditions on allocations to prevent misuses (read 'freebies'). They just wanted past NPS contributions back. Else, gormint employees are a tiny % of electorate and don't vote as a block. It does not make political sense to appease them.

But agree with your points. Even though I keep criticising their fiscal chindigiri, this govt has done a commendable job on fiscal consol in a very very very challenging global environment. We are still paying for UPA's misadventures though - it will take another decade to get back to the pre UPA days.

 

[Jimih]

But agree with your points. Even though I keep criticising their fiscal chindigiri, this govt has done a commendable job on fiscal consol in a very very very challenging global environment. We are still paying for UPA's misadventures though - it will take another decade to get back to the pre UPA days.

Yeah.

Bottomline is Fiscal Management is an incredibly tough job and a tight rope to walk on given that the uncertain political climate of India.

 

[Sanatani]

Guess I have to pay the same tax, no relief for us.

Middle working class is the kolhu ka bail for this country. They could have given some relief by changing the tax slabs. But hamari kisko padi hai.

 

[IndianHawk]

Middle working class is the kolhu ka bail for this country. They could have given some relief by changing the tax slabs. But hamari kisko padi hai.

How many people earn over 7 lpa in India.
Iirc people earning 18 lpa are counted in 1% of Indians. 7 lpa should be top 5-10% of country. So middle class in uper class in that context.

If both partners are earning in a household than there is no tax upto 14 lpa. Pretty decent. They should have provided some relief to single earning household.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Ya'll Nibbiars The following countries saw economic miracles fromtje mid 20th century but not limited to.

1 . Brazil 1964 - 1984. Brazilian Miracle.

2 . Taiwan 1959 - 1997. Taiwan Miracle.

3 . Sweden 1947 - 1974. Record years.

4 . Spain 1959 - 1974. Spanish Miracle.

5 . West Germany 1948 - 1974. Wonder Years.

6 . Japan 1952 - 1989. Japanese Economic Miracles.

7 . Italy 1953 - 1973. Italian Economic Boom.

8 . Greece 1951 - 1973. Greek Miracle.

9 . France 1946 - 1975. The Golarious 30's.

10 . Hong Kong 1948 - 1982. The First Asian Tiger.

11 . Korea 1960 - 1997. Miracle on Han River.

12 . Singapore 1964 - 1997. Straits Economic Miracle.

13 . Chile 1990 - 2017. Miracle of Chile.

14 . Malaysia 1980 - 1997. Vision 2020.

15 . Turkey 2000 - 2017. Turkish Boom.

16 . Thailand 1970 - 1997. The First Tiger Cube.

17 . Ireland 1990 - 2008. The Celtic Tiger.

18 . PRC 1978 - 2019. Economic Reforms.

19 . Vietnam 1987 - Present. Doi Moi.

20 . Amerika 1981 - 2007. The Regan Reforms.

21 . UK 1980 - 1994. Thacher Era.

22 . Swiss Miracle 1945 - 1973. Swiss Miracle.

23 . Mexico 1945 - 1975. Mexican Miracle.

24 . Indonesia 1970 - 1997. Indonesian Economic Boom.

25 . Phillipines 1986 - 1997. The Philippines Economic Boom.

India ?.

Can the 1992 - 1999 and 2002 - 2012 be called as a economic miracles?. Don't think so, high growth were recorded, but difficult to call this is as any economic miracles.

For economic miracles, imo, 10%+ gdp growth over at least a decade should be there. India has missed all the “miracle” buses. We will just chug along at a healthy pace with some parts of the country delivering economic miracles while others grow old before they even get to upper middle income let alone upper income.