Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[ezsasa]

Yeah, we have to start first with heavy industries one that doesn't require too much skilled labor with degrees. The point is we are missing many industries that employ the huge swatch of semi-skilled labor in agriculture and the daily wage earners like shipbuilding, mining, material processing etc. Babus just have to copy china, how it started industry. When you provide these semi skilled labor with steady income, then their next generation can hop on the advanced industries like mechatronics, robotics and related jhumla.

using "missing many industries" and "Babus just have to copy china" in the same argument is an oxymoron.

since the turn of the millennia , the most of the world including India have sought to use china as the factory of the world. the reason there are "missing industries" in India is precisely because corporations found it cheaper to import from china rather than manufacturing the items here. reason is simple, who doesn't like profitability.

as of now, global situation is that folks are realising that concentrating manufacturing in one aspiring super power may not such a good idea, hence the push back has started and muricans are calling it de-risking supply chains.

in India's case, bringing back those lost industries to meet domestic demand will not be easy, it would be a slow process, since domestic manufacturers have to compete with chinese manufacturing costs in every vertical.

and all this is happening in a high interest rate regime.

this is to say, we cannot copy china. china three decades ago played their cards right, it's not the same global environment anymore. India will not get the same free pass, that china got then.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

CIDCO funded, no loans.

CIDCO budget document
======

https://cidco.maharashtra.gov.in/pdf/Budget_Estimate2023-24.pdf

This is an exception to the rule. Most infrastructure projects are on borrowed money. Even if internal funded, CIDCO still has lost 6 months worth of revenues which it could have used in other projects.

 

[ym888]

using "missing many industries" and "Babus just have to copy china" in the same argument is an oxymoron.

since the turn of the millennia , the most of the world including India have sought to use china as the factory of the world. the reason there are "missing industries" in India is precisely because corporations found it cheaper to import from china rather than manufacturing the items here. reason is simple, who doesn't like profitability.

as of now, global situation is that folks are realising that concentrating manufacturing in one aspiring super power may not such a good idea, hence the push back has started and muricans are calling it de-risking supply chains.

in India's case, bringing back those lost industries to meet domestic demand will not be easy, it would be a slow process, since domestic manufacturers have to compete with chinese manufacturing costs in every vertical.

and all this is happening in a high interest rate regime.

this is to say, we cannot copy china. china three decades ago played their cards right, it's not the same global environment anymore. India will not get the same free pass, that china got then.

China does not have a free pass，

It takes time and cost

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Both these are not large, advanced engineering projects. Crocs is mostly low end footwear and Udemy is also a cheap online educator. TN is still not able to attract big manufacturing except what they already have due to initial lead. Chennai port is a major attraction. It also helps that BLR and HYD are inland cities.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

China does not have a free pass，

It takes time and cost

Back then you did. Nixon administration was majorly responsible for American investments in China to counter Soviet Union. China played its cards right while Indian congress party sat on their lazy asses and did nothing claiming import substitution and license Raj will work. What a bunch of fools these Congis were.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Also terai regions are worst (up and bihar dist. bordering nepal).Most dark red districts are there. Remember those districts are much more densely populated (hence much higher population), then couple of dark red tribal districts in Odisha and central India.

This data is from 2015-2016. I would not use this. Need latest data.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Pretty pessimistic outlook of the economy , I always had the thought that the Jan dhan yojana got in good savings into the economy, thus increasing the Public Savings amount that could be channeled into good investments that are import replacements, but looking at the author's takes it is not the case

It is mainly the service sectors pulling us ahead while Manufacturing is struggling and its share declining in each year, with such large trade deficit each year, I don't see us going far in decades to come

It will just be a cha cha cha , 2 steps forward , 2 steps backward

What is your take ?

The biggest challenge is the inability to attract manufacturing industries. UP has built good infrastructure but now it has to attract inland manufacturing industries - quite a challenge. Also, infrastructure is still not up there. Logistics and production costs are way too high. Skilled labor in north India is still in short supply. Land is still difficult to get or convert from agri to industrial. India credit rating is low making borrowing costs high. There are a lot of big reforms still pending. But we are headed in the right direction. We will never be able to achieve Chinese style directed economy.

 

[jai jaganath]

Navi Mumbai Metro starts operations, other infra projects await inauguration

Services of the Navi Mumbai metro commenced in the presence of Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation Municipal Commissioner Rajesh Narvekar

www.hindustantimes.com

Several projects are awaited to be be inaugurated
But it's stalled what's the point of inaugurating things from the hands of supreme leader

Infact Navi Mumbai metro which was waiting for 6 months to be inaugurated by pm opened recently due to congis leader's warnings and efforts
Multiple similar instances in Mumbai too where congis and ubt shiv sena have made good image by pointing out these negligence
The govt is losing its image here

 

[Jagattunga Govinda III]

Yeah, we have to start first with heavy industries one that doesn't require too much skilled labor with degrees. The point is we are missing many industries that employ the huge swatch of semi-skilled labor in agriculture and the daily wage earners like shipbuilding, mining, material processing etc. Babus just have to copy china, how it started industry. When you provide these semi skilled labor with steady income, then their next generation can hop on the advanced industries like mechatronics, robotics and related jhumla.

You are skipping an entire pre-heavy industry generation here. Focusing on heavy industries while not having a sufficiently large MSME base is a disastrous move, especially in this era. That has been the biggest lesson taught to us from the failings of Nehruvian rule and Indira Gandhi's reign. You could argue that their focus on heavy industries was crippled due to the restriction of private sector participation, and you are right but it is a lost opportunity now because we are far, far behind China and East Asia in this aspect.

The global demand has already been met and there isn't much scope to do anything here unless we can make goods cheaper than the already dominant countries and that can be achieved only if we have cheap and skilled labour (there is no such thing as a heavy industry that doesn't need much skilled labour unless you are referring to Soviet era meme jobs that the state created only to pretend to generate employment since unemployment was illegal in Soviet Union). We have cheap labour but they aren't skilled relative to what would be our competitors. In order to give said labour enough skill, you don't just need education - you also need experience. That experience can only be given by MSMEs. Not to mention that by providing a nourishing environment to them, the supply chain can be made completely indigenous for future heavy industries.

If we do entirely focus on heavy industries without a healthy environment to support it, all we will end up is with assembly lines that will assemble everything here but a good majority of the parts are imported from elsewhere, which defeats the whole purpose.

 

[Lonewolf]

Yeah, we have to start first with heavy industries one that doesn't require too much skilled labor with degrees. The point is we are missing many industries that employ the huge swatch of semi-skilled labor in agriculture and the daily wage earners like shipbuilding, mining, material processing etc. Babus just have to copy china, how it started industry. When you provide these semi skilled labor with steady income, then their next generation can hop on the advanced industries like mechatronics, robotics and related jhumla.

Not jhumla, I m just saying that you need to learn basics, to learn advanced stuff, you can't do a robotics course and compete with someone who have done enough study in vibration, linear actuation, robotic path definition etc

 

[ListenLittleMan]

The biggest challenge is the inability to attract manufacturing industries. UP has built good infrastructure but now it has to attract inland manufacturing industries - quite a challenge. Also, infrastructure is still not up there. Logistics and production costs are way too high. Skilled labor in north India is still in short supply. Land is still difficult to get or convert from agri to industrial. India credit rating is low making borrowing costs high. There are a lot of big reforms still pending. But we are headed in the right direction. We will never be able to achieve Chinese style directed economy.

In the interview the author describes even though we have huge FDI , they share of greenfield investments has been pretty low, esp those dedicated to research of industrial products, manufacturing oriented etc
Most come in invest into service sector stocks , make quick buck and move on

What I'm more concerned is inspite of the PLI schemes from the govt why is the private sector not having confidence to build something, having one or two here and there will hardly make much difference we need a pan India movement

We don't need the Chinese styled economy, we have great service sector that is contributing to our numbers, we just need manufacturing and agri to play along

If you take Agri and our per hectare yield, lets take rice as an eg even this is piss poor compared to countries like Bangla

The reforms part what you quote is an important factor, unfortunately our electoral politics and the Modi govt's fear inspite of having such large mandate has failed us badly

 

[Shuturmurg]

Both these are not large, advanced engineering projects. Crocs is mostly low end footwear and Udemy is also a cheap online educator. TN is still not able to attract big manufacturing except what they already have due to initial lead. Chennai port is a major attraction. It also helps that BLR and HYD are inland cities.

Yes automobile is not heavy manufacturing.

Automotive industry in Chennai - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[nongaddarliberal]

This guy brings up good points regarding India needing to concentrate on robotics, why money can't save the US, why China is being underestimated, and the newfound overlaps occurring between India and traditionally western spheres. Yeah, it's that Ranveer character interviewing him, but the guest is excellent.

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

How accurate is this?? India passes $4 trillion mark today?

 

[Butter Chicken]

View attachment 229514
How accurate is this?? India passes $4 trillion mark today?

Let's wait for official quarterly numbers.

 

[TopWatcher]

 

[Blademaster]

If this is true that means India will easily take over Germany and possibly Japan in 2024.

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

If this is true that means India will easily take over Germany and possibly Japan in 2024.

Possible and definitely by April'25 or FY 25-26

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

View attachment 229514
How accurate is this?? India passes $4 trillion mark today?

I don;t know how true this is, but its all over twitter now. Lot of prominent peeps twitting.

 

[SammyBoi111]

Hopefully noice!