Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[tribendra bisoi..]

This is story of global south . Not just india . By the way looks like part of the video . If someone finds the full version do post it .

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars The Inflation in major economies.

Japan 2.5 percent.

Australia 5.2 percent.

ROK 6 percent.

France 6.5 percent.

Italy 6.8 percent.

Germany 7 percent.

India 7 present.

UK 9.1 percent.

Amerika 9.2 percent.

Spain 10.3 percent.

Brazil - 12.1 percent.

Russia 12.9 percent.

Iran 15.2 percent

 

[Crazywithmath]

Q1 FY 2022-23 MoRTH road construction numbers look horrible; awarding of projects (from a record 12731 km in last fiscal) contracted by 42%; construction dropped by 14% (translating to 22 km per day). To be noted is that last fiscal already had weak numbers to begin with (construction speed dropped from a record 36.5 km/day in FY 2020-21 to 29 km/day in FY 2021-22); partly due to uneven monsoons and partly due to low awarding of projects in FY 2020-21(due to chinese virus induced lockdowns?). Present slowdown in construction seems even more unexpected after a record 12731 km was awarded in last FY; surge in prices of inputs due to elevated global inflation seems to have done a massive damage.

Although with monsoon gone construction is expected to pick up drastically and record about 32-34 km/day (still lower than the record 36.5 km/day of FY 2020-21) throughout the entire fiscal year as per CRISIL and nowhere close to 50 km/day as aimed by the GoI.

This fiscal, the ministry is likely to award 12,000-13,000 km of national highway projects, largely under Bharatmala, with uptake spurred by developer friendly measures under Atmanirbhar Bharat that have been extended till October, 2022.

Awarding of National Highway projects suffered 42 per cent drop in first quarter - ET Infra

National highway projects hit a speed bump in the first quarter of this fiscal, with awarding by the Ministry of Road Transportation and Highways (MoRTH), including the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), falling a sharp 42 per cent on-year to 969 km.

infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[another_armchair]

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/current-rupee-fall-way-lower-than-in-earlier-crises/2596899/

View attachment 164333

How did the rupee fare between 2014 and today?

Rupee was hovering between 58-60 when Modi took over in 2014.

USD INR Chart - Investing.com India

View this live chart to track the USD to INR (US Dollar - Indian Rupee) cross's current activity.

in.investing.com

USD index was hovering around 79-80 during the same period.

US Dollar Index Chart - Investing.com India

In this section you'll find a streaming chart for the US Dollar Index.

in.investing.com

USD index is at 107 today.

INR is at 80 to a dollar.

What kind of validation is the author trying to make here by picking a period of his/her convenience?

What about over USD 60 billion drop in our forex reserves in less than a year? Wait.. they are not related I presume.

Aside, EPFO wants to enhance equities investment limit to 20%. Jai Ho!

Bas, frontrunning karte karte sabka bailout ho jayega. ... sir is saal sirf 2% milenge.. market manda tha.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Aequs & Hindalco in strategic alliance for commercial aerospace sector

Aequs operates the largest aero machining facility in India with over 1 million machining hours delivered per year from the Belagavi Aerospace Cluster.

Aequs & Hindalco in strategic alliance for commercial aerospace sector

Aequs operates the largest aero machining facility in India with over 1 million machining hours delivered per year from the Belagavi Aerospace Cluster.

www.moneycontrol.com

 

[another_armchair]

Saudi replied in a polite 'hum dekhenge' to Biden's request to increase crude output.

Result - Crude up 5%.

Will the yanks eat humble pie and allow Iran and Venezuelan crude?

All hopes of Brent below 95 a barrel by this month end is all but lost.

Back to inflation watch.

 

[OFBkaRakhwala]

Saudi replied in a polite 'hum dekhenge' to Biden's request to increase crude output.

Result - Crude up 5%.

Will the yanks eat humble pie and allow Iran and Venezuelan crude?

All hopes of Brent below 95 a barrel by this month end is all but lost.

Back to inflation watch.

Dint macron said that Saudis have very limited potential to increase?

 

[FalconSlayers]

These report publishers should name the cities when they talk of NCR, so that Delhi’s reality can be shoved up behind AAPtards, because Delhi NCR is generally Gurugram city and Noida-Greater Noida cities and Delhi is too busy in समाजवाद to create a startup ecosystem.

 

[another_armchair]

Dint macron said that Saudis have very limited potential to increase?

Well, Biden thought the Sauds owed them and the Europeans some cheap crude in abundant supplies.

Wonder why when 60% of US crude comes from Canada and Mexico.

 

[armortec]

This is story of global south . Not just india . By the way looks like part of the video . If someone finds the full version do post it .

The stalled neutrino experiment is really sad - would give a chance for Indian scientists and attract great minds to India. As an aside I'd like to mention an East-African British-Indian was the man who designed the particle detector CMS (Compact Muon Solenoid) at CERN which first detected the now famous Higgs boson - Tejinder Virdee.

 

[YagamiLight]

Hey, when did you come back?
I thought you left after Mudi won again.

Hi bro...

Been busy with my post graduation past few years.

Just visit sometimes to see current state of the urban youth in our country now and then but dont usually login. But tbh, I am bit taken aback by how based this forum has become....

Me and Sakel gharelu ustad were the only guys who saw through BJP jumlas back then. But now the entire forum has taken an 180 and has started to call out Modi..

 

[ezsasa]

What about over USD 60 billion drop in our forex reserves in less than a year? Wait.. they are not related I presume.

not all forex is being used for currency stabilisation by RBI, isn't it?

 

[FalconSlayers]

not all forex is being used for currency stabilisation by RBI, isn't it?

Much of it is due to trade deficit and subsequent current account deficit due to high oil prices.

 

[YagamiLight]

Data from World Inequality Database shows inequality ↑ in India from 2004-14, when share of wealthy top 1% in national income ↑ from 18.4% to 21.3% but share of bottom 50% ↓ from 18.8% to 14.7%. Why? ↑ in cronyism & corruption from 2004-14.

x

Unlike the ↑ in inequality from 2004-14, demon had the effect of redistributing wealth from the rich to the poor. See sciencedirect.com/science/articl…. These findings, which carefully control for various confounding factors, suggest that demon would have helped to ↓ inequality.

INcome inequality is a meaningless term for a country like India. These beggers will never show how the graph will look before 2004 because any economic growth will cause inequality as a direct result of it

For example, If I earn 10 Lakh rupees and my maid earns 1Lakh rupees in 2022 and both our incomes increase by 10% per year, I will earn 11 lakhs in 2023 while my maid will earn only 1.1Lakh, meaning the income gap and inequality between us has increased. So does it mean we should rather have no GDP growth at all? Only way to avoid this by stopping me from earning 11 lakh in 2023. But if you do that, why would I pay my maid 1.1 Lakh in 2023? After all, only way I increase the salary for my worker is if I am earning more. The same is true for corporations as well. They are run by people as well. So unless corporations see increase in profits, they wont increase salaries. Its natural.

While I wont be as affected by lack of economic growth, the maid will be far more affected by lack of economic growth/income..

Substitute Me with coporations/companies and Maid with Workers and the scenerio remains the same.


This Whole argument is bogus and stupid. One can look at the supposed golden growth ages of 1998-2004 under BJP and you wll find the same downward trend in the curve. It is inevitable result of economic growth.

Such a pathetic use of graph to insult the intelligence of its readers into believing that Modi dint screw the economy with demonetisation

Now onto the next stupid arguments

 

[another_armchair]

not all forex is being used for currency stabilisation by RBI, isn't it?

Nope but a drop in forex reserves hurts our bets/hedges against the USD besides leaving the central bank with lesser maneuvering room.

I thought the RBI had a near term target of the INR at 82 but they seem to be panicking with INR at 80.

With over $200 billion worth external debt payments due within this year, expect the rupee to gyrate a lot.

More shocks in store I guess... going to be quite an eventful year.

India’s Forex Reserves Fall to 15-Month Low as RBI Defends Rupee

India’s foreign exchange reserves dropped to their lowest in 15 months as the central bank probably stepped up its intervention to support the rupee that is testing new lows amid foreign capital outflows.

www.bloomberg.com

RBI has been intervening in the forex markets to support the rupee lately.

Maybe would make sense to just let the INR sink lower and find a new base.

 

[YagamiLight]

Following demon, 3.8lakh companies & 4.5lakh directors related to shell entities have been struck off under Sec 248(1)(c) & 248(1)(c) of the Companies Act. Cumulatively, surveys conducted by tax authorities in 63691 cases revealed undisclosed income of about Rs. 85K cr 6/12

This could have been done regularly without subjecting hundreds of millions of Indians to stand in quese with that retarded strike on currency. Doing the demonetisation over the period of month or so like how previous governments introduced new currency would have had the same effect. So another BS argument

As shown in tables in slides 45-50 in the deck in linkedin.com/feed/update/ur… , formalization of economy helped in bringing crores of workers into formal sector.

this would be laughable if it wasnt so tragic. The crores of "formal jobs" came at the cost of several crores of "informal jobs". So many small firms and their informal jobs went away from this brilliant master stroke and economic genius of Modi.

And whats this fetish with formalisation? So that Modi and his cronies can tax and suck the citizens more so that they can fund their pathetic welfare state for votes?

BOTH Direct tax/GDP ratio & actual direct tax collection ↑ following Demon. See charts below that show clearly the same - the vertical line is for the year of Demon

Only in a country called India, an increase in tax by the govt can be propagnadised by its ass lickers as an achievement of the government. In most countries with sanity left, no govt will advertise how it is sucking more as taxes from its citizens. They only use excuses to do that. But not Modi/bjp/bjp boot lickers. They think its a proud achivement that Modi is looting more from the hindu middle class that voted for him. The amount of contempt BJP has for its voter base is unreal

 

[YagamiLight]

Volume of digital transactions ↑ sharply while traditional transactions maintained similar growth. See chart below that shows this clearly

In a pair of NUS working papers, Prof. Sumit Agarwal shows that demon led to a permanent ↑ in use of digital transactions, especially among the young. Even 2 yrs after demon, those who switched to digital txns didn't return to cash txns.

In a Harvard Univ working paper, Bandi et al. (2019) find that post demon customers that switched to digital payments on e-commerce platforms – instead of cash-on-delivery – spend more per transaction and are less likely to return their purchases.

In a Northwestern University working paper, Crouzet et al. (2020) find a 60% permanent increase in fintech payments after demonetization

And that has added to the value of economy how? Whether my income is 1 Lakh or 2 lak is what matters, not whether i got the salary in cash or as digital transanction.

Nothing but fluff in the whole article and so many people here think it has made some valid defence of the stupidity called demonetisation

 

[YagamiLight]

Sooner the Indian exports reach a trillion dollars a year (2027-28), sooner India will become an economic power. At that time Indian GDP should be close to $7-8 trillion dollars. I would say it is an economic miracle. If all of this becomes true then the current government has to be complemented….. cheers

India’s Manufacturing Exports To Touch $1 Trillion By FY28 Led By Chemicals, Auto, Pharma

Manufacturing exports saw a growth of over 40 per cent to touch $418 billion in fiscal year 2021-22 despite possible recessionary and inflationary pressure, compared to the $290 billion from the previous year.

swarajyamag.com

Unless the govt screws up with anothe GST/Demonetisation brilliance, the economy will reach there. Only question is how fast.

If India was allowed its full potential, with deregulation, labour reforms, land reforms, reduction of red tape, we would be growing at 12% or more p.a considering the very low base we grow from... But I have 0 faith in the current govt, specially when a stupid and arrogant lady like nimmi aunty is FM

 

[ezsasa]

This could have been done regularly without subjecting hundreds of millions of Indians to stand in quese with that retarded strike on currency. Doing the demonetisation over the period of month or so like how previous governments introduced new currency would have had the same effect. So another BS argument

this would be laughable if it wasnt so tragic. The crores of "formal jobs" came at the cost of several crores of "informal jobs". So many small firms and their informal jobs went away from this brilliant master stroke and economic genius of Modi.

And whats this fetish with formalisation? So that Modi and his cronies can tax and suck the citizens more so that they can fund their pathetic welfare state for votes?


Only in a country called India, an increase in tax by the govt can be propagnadised by its ass lickers as an achievement of the government. In most countries with sanity left, no govt will advertise how it is sucking more as taxes from its citizens. They only use excuses to do that. But not Modi/bjp/bjp boot lickers. They think its a proud achivement that Modi is looting more from the hindu middle class that voted for him. The amount of contempt BJP has for its voter base is unreal

welcome back, you are at the same spot when you took your break i see.

 

[ezsasa]

Nope but a drop in forex reserves hurts our bets/hedges against the USD besides leaving the central bank with lesser maneuvering room.

I thought the RBI had a near term target of the INR at 82 but they seem to be panicking with INR at 80.

With over $200 billion worth external debt payments due within this year, expect the rupee to gyrate a lot.

More shocks in store I guess... going to be quite an eventful year.

India’s Forex Reserves Fall to 15-Month Low as RBI Defends Rupee

India’s foreign exchange reserves dropped to their lowest in 15 months as the central bank probably stepped up its intervention to support the rupee that is testing new lows amid foreign capital outflows.

www.bloomberg.com

RBI has been intervening in the forex markets to support the rupee lately.

Maybe would make sense to just let the INR sink lower and find a new base.

RBI's official stand is that they are not against rupee finding it's true value, but they would like to reduce the volatility in fluctuations.

if they were indeed implementing a policy of fixing the rupee value, the graph would look like a waterfall model like the how pkr used to look like until recently. as far as i know, there is no way to know how much of forex is used for maintaining currency.

there were a list of six policy initiatives that RBI says it is implementing, the list was floating on news channels a few days ago.