Indian Economy: News and Discussion

vampyrbladez

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Modi's love for China is not helping.
WE must go solo to generate mass jobs, that's what important.
Don't know why but modi removed China from list of concerned countries?
This is not helpful at all or I guess Chinese did their famous TALKS ARE ONLY FOR MAKING SURE YOU GET TIIIIME TO COMPLETE YOUR WORK, looking like they were partly successful on that front.
Our biggest buyers are Indian people first,then USA or EUROPE and if big bills and this type of shenanigans by left and congress will be there in future too, then we must be prepared for worst from west.
So, I think we must focus on india and India people more.
India is expert at getting foreign powers to do what it wants. Read about RCEP and US trade deal.

Yes and more states are now under congress, I do hope you also see that and I am not counting Jharkhand state.
BJP does a better job defending it's states in alliances. If AJSU had not backed out, BJP would have won. Voteshare difference was 2%.
 

south block

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He need to cut the BS & stop taking economic advise from chetoos sellers ---- simple Monterey stimulus to rural India, unemployed youth & tax cuts for middle class will do the trick for short term ---- instead giving tax cuts to chetoos sellers ------ in long run India need to invest in education & population control measures & proper resource utilisation ----- these chetoos sellers along with corrupt politicians & beurocrates have taken whole country for a ride in last 3 decade. NPA are finally coming home to roost.
 

indus

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Yes and more states are now under congress, I do hope you also see that and I am not counting Jharkhand state.
Change is political control does not immediately change the economics of states or country. Unless one takes dramatic steps, which mostly state Govts do not. For e.g public healthcare in Rajasthan was as bad during Scindia, BJP as it is during Gehlot now. Just an incident mass infant deaths and people start comparing the two Govts. Similar for other economic indicators.
 

Haldiram

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He need to cut the BS & stop taking economic advise from chetoos sellers ---- simple Monterey stimulus to rural India, unemployed youth & tax cuts for middle class will do the trick for short term ---- instead giving tax cuts to chetoos sellers ------ in long run India need to invest in education & population control measures & proper resource utilisation ----- these chetoos sellers along with corrupt politicians & beurocrates have taken whole country for a ride in last 3 decade. NPA are finally coming home to roost.
Baat toh theek bol raha hai.

And yes, the corporate tax cut was just a part of the solution, not the whole solution. I hope there is follow up tax cuts for citizens. It's the people who spend money and keep the economy running. Supply side economics taken care of, now demand side reforms needed.

I wouldn't go as far as saying that tax cuts given to corporates were a bad move. Creating an incentive for business makes others channelize their investments and factories inside India. A simple 10% tax cut can lead to massive flow of money from outside. A tax cut isn't always a loss to the exchequer. It ends up as an indirect revenue stream when it starts attracting private CAPEX and FDI.

Also, a tax cut doesn't cost the gormint anything out of its own pocket. Jo company khud kamati hai, ussi me se tax jaata hai, abh thoda kam jayega bas. Jabh saara tax gormint ko jaata tha tabh gormint ne bhi kaunsa teer maar liya? pura paisa MGNREGA, subsidy, PSU pension scheme, VRS schemes me duba diya. Everyone who was corrected to the PSU ecosystem benefited from private taxes siphoned from profitable private companies. Ordinary employees of those private companies didn't get shit from the taxes that their companies paid. Private firms were bearing the burden of subsidizing loss making PSU nincompoops. Now they can focus on their own growth.

The highest NPAs were from PSU companies. Who gave money to Vijay Mallya? it was SBI.
 
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sorcerer

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India's about to hand people data Americans can only dream of

India has more than 560 million internet users, all generating data by the terabyte. Soon they’ll have an unprecedented amount of control over their digital financial footprints, with the ability to decide what to share, with whom, and for how long.
India’s top banks are getting ready to roll out a system that gives consumers access to a wide swath of their financial data and allows them to share it instantly. Backed by the Reserve Bank of India, it’s an ambitious approach that combines privacy protection with credit reporting: if it works, it could unlock the credit market for millions of Indians while offering new levels of data security and consumer control.

India’s effort is one of a handful of initiatives around the globe to return control of data to consumers, notably with the “open banking” movement in Europe and Australia. India’s approach is unique -- it relies on third parties to mediate the often complicated process of information sharing -- and so is its target population, which is predominantly poor and, as of now, excluded from the formal banking system.

“Only India has a solution for such a scale,” said Infosys chairman Nandan Nilekani, who’s been an adviser to this initiative and other major tech reforms. “This is the future.”

How it works
The “account aggregator” system will be offered by banks and licensed by India’s central bank, which will also regulate the data collection and sharing. By logging into authorized apps, users will be able to pull together all kinds of financial data -- spending patterns, bill repayment, tax returns, business transactions -- that they can then choose to share instantly and temporarily in pursuit of loans, investment products or even insurance.

A prospective borrower might, for example, release part of his goods-and-services tax filings to convince a lender of credit-worthiness. A vegetable vendor without collateral to back a loan might share a cash-flow statement or use a mobile phone repayment history to demonstrate reliability.

India’s newly established digital rules and practices lay the groundwork for this kind of system. The central bank now requires financial data to be reported in a standard, machine-readable format, which means it’s easier to automatically slice and share. India also has a history of collecting and protecting massive personal data sets, including biometric and payments information.

A different approach
The new system will help lenders serve millions of small Indian companies that need to borrow an estimated 1.5 trillion rupees ($21 billion) a month, said BG Mahesh, co-founder of Sahamati, a non-profit collective of account aggregators.

“Small banks can compete in this newly-leveled playing field by giving out sachet loans to businesses which have no assets other than cash flow,” he said.

Regardless, Indian users will have new, immediate access to their own financial information, and they’ll control who sees what and when. It’s a marked contrast with what happens in the U.S., where three big credit reporting agencies collect -- and resell -- a limited array of consumers’ financial data directly from the banks, with only cursory consent.

It’s also a different approach to data collection and privacy than Europe’s new General Data Protection Regulation, which strengthened consumers’ rights but still lets individual companies track users data.

India’s “account aggregators” are part of a broad push to comply with a 2017 Supreme Court ruling that designated privacy as a universal human right. Later this year, the Indian Parliament will renew debate on the Personal Data Protection Bill, which places new requirements on companies doing business in the country.

Encouraging users
The Reserve Bank of India has provisionally licensed over half a dozen account aggregators, including Jio Information Solutions, part of Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Group, and NESL Asset Data, an entity set up by a consortium of the country’s biggest banks. Several have completed trials on the system already.

At the same time, Sahamati is working to convince financial institutions to embrace the new system. Later this month, it’s scheduled a demonstration to encourage tech startups to develop compatible apps. Already the State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Axis Bank have signed on and are testing the system. So have the country’s leading financial regulators.

They also need to make sure people use it. India’s credit rating system is relatively new and covers only a tiny fraction of the population. The paperwork and documentation required to apply for a loan has deterred both small borrowers and prospective lenders. The account aggregators solve that problem -- potentially.

“We have to ensure that hundreds of millions of Indians with varying levels of education and literacy properly understand consent,” said V.R. Govindarajan, co-founder and CEO of financial data verifier Perfios, which has received an account aggregator license. “It’s a work in progress and for the system to gain mass adoption, we need to evangelize.”
 

sorcerer

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Algos are changing India’s stock markets

India allowed algorithmic trading only in 2008, but algos control nearly a third of all trades already. In the West, where the phenomenon first surfaced nearly three decades ago, algos were running about 50% of US equity trading volumes by 2012. In the foreign exchange markets, which run 23 hours a day, algorithms account for 80% of the trading volumes.

In simple terms, algorithmic trading involves the use of technology to automatically buy or sell securities. Humans do this, normally. They analyse companies, sectors, businesses, prices and other data, and decide when to buy or sell. But this data can be automatically analysed by a computer as well, and if you program an algorithm right, you could have the computer place orders automatically, and more importantly, quickly.
 

Why so serious?

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Can quantitative easing work in India with 7% inflation?
Last month’s jump in inflation to 7.35%, way above the RBI’s 2% to 6% target range, was driven by food.
By Bloomberg | Updated: Jan 14, 2020, 03.21 PM IST


Reuters
The risk of economic stagnation combined with high inflation has indeed risen, though the former remains the dominant force.
By Andy Mukherjee

The anguish is palpable. First, it was the news that India’s nominal gross domestic product is growing at its slowest pace in more than four decades. Now comes the inflation data for December, showing the steepest rise in consumer prices since July 2014. If this is the onset of stagflation, then it will be very hard to beat back the blues. But is that what we’re seeing?
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The risk of economic stagnation combined with high inflation has indeed risen, though the former remains the dominant force. For the central bank to get nervous and switch prematurely to a hawkish stance would be a grave error. Even if it can’t reduce interest rates any further this year, the Reserve Bank of India should keep quantitative easing among its options for supporting the economy.

Last month’s jump in inflation to 7.35%, way above the central bank’s 2% to 6% target range, was driven by food. A vegetable shortage has been emerging for some time, and that’s now making substitutes such as eggs, milk and fish more expensive, too. With food prices increasing globally, it’s hard to predict just when the Indian situation will ease.
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However, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel, is more under control. It inched up to 3.75% after mobile-services firms bumped up fees and rail fares rose. Still, corporate insolvencies are pushing joblessness higher. New investment — and hiring — are muted. This will constrain wages and producers’ pricing power. While headline inflation will eventually weaken and head toward the core rate, economists expect it to stay above 6% for 2020. That would crimp the RBI’s ability to add to last year’s five rate cuts.

The monetary authority’s support can still make a difference, but only if it alters the strategy of buying government bonds from banks. With deposit-taking institutions sitting on excess liquidity of $45 billion, pumping more cash into an overflowing pond is increasingly pointless. Lubrication is needed elsewhere, and the way to provide it will be for the RBI to start buying assets from insurers, mutual funds, housing finance companies and other lenders that don’t take deposits.
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This will hit two goals. As the balance sheets of funding-constrained shadow banks become more liquid, their borrowing costs, elevated since the collapse of infrastructure financier IL&FS Group in September 2018, may start to drop meaningfully. Once the asset-sale proceeds get deposited in the banking system, the lenders will seek to deploy these liabilities to protect profitability. The 10.4% weighted average lending rate of India’s banks in November — double the central bank’s policy rate — should ease.

Recommending Federal Reserve-style quantitative easing when inflation is above 7% sounds like a plan fraught with risk. It needn’t be. For one thing, as the State Bank of India’s chief economist, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, has been arguing, the 46% weight of food in India’s inflation basket is hopelessly outdated. If actual spending on food and beverage is closer to the 30% level reported in national accounts, inflation is being overstated by as much as 2 percentage points.
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Right or wrong, the price statistics are likely to have a bearing on what Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government does in its Feb. 1 annual budget. Any fiscal adventurism, such as deep cuts to income taxes, will need a rethink. Now that the bond market must rule out further rate cuts this year, it may not be in a mood to supply funds for a bulked-up borrowing program. Why should investors accept 6.5% yields on 10-year notes with expected inflation at 6% or higher? On Tuesday, the sovereign yield jumped as much as 10 basis points, the most since Dec. 5. Given its funding constraints, the government still needs the monetary authority to do the heavy-lifting.

For the central bank to throw in the towel now would only worsen the stagnation.
 

sorcerer

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India, Russia explore North Sea route


India and Russia are looking at new means to further participation in the energy sector, according to Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Steel, Dharmendra Pradhan. In an official statement, Pradhan said, “We are keen to explore the new northern sea route to source crude oil and LNG through Russia’s Arctic. The route has the potential to cut the cost and time for transporting LNG from Russia to India. A sea line between Far-East Russia and the East coast of India will also facilitate sourcing of coking coal from the region.”

https://www.thehindubusinessline.co...a-explore-north-sea-route/article30568799.ece
 

Indx TechStyle

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With economic slowdown continued for a reason yet to be figured out, banking sector being weak yet, finally inflation what was held government up now (but at an uncomfortable rate), increment projected in oil prices, what @Haldiram looks ahead for economy now?

How long the pain is going to be and what are the measures that need to be taken.
 

Knowitall

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With economic slowdown continued for a reason yet to be figured out, banking sector being weak yet, finally inflation what was held government up now (but at an uncomfortable rate), increment projected in oil prices, what @Haldiram looks ahead for economy now?

How long the pain is going to be and what are the measures that need to be taken.
Sirji if you check my posts which I posted some time back my conversation with one of my dads friend.

It's pretty much going just how he predicted no new stimulus for economic growth.

For the coming time we will be at an average growth of 6 percent we need innovation to drive the economy internal growth can only take you so far.

Everyone keeps hedging their bets on land and labour reforms it's not that simple we have reached a stage where the IT sector is now reaching its peak.

It's not exactly the fault of the government it's just that IT sector is itself going through a major shift and I can tell you here that our education system is simply not moving towards this new change or trying to address it.

And the other thing this info I have got from quite a higher up in Deloitte he told me that right now is a transition phase for which most companies in India were not ready but they can surely overcome it the only problem is people expecting there will be a man to man replacement.

He said companies are slowly but steadily moving to the new model of high skilled but not a large pool of workers to cut losses and save money.

There are a lot of other sectors where I will be dwell soon.

Overall government needs some out of the box ideas to pull us out of this mess.

The only unfortunate thing it's not their doing only but it landed on them.
 

ezsasa

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Growth is coming back in second half on next financial year.
Agri cycle is going to be good this season.
i think internal consumption is not the real problem, exports are. the GDP growth estimate fell short by 1.5-2 lakh crores, which would match roughly with fall in exports.

if modi govt wouldn't have been there, it would have been worse. they have cushioned the fall, by keeping the money flowing thru infra & welfare spending.
 

IndianHawk

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i think internal consumption is not the real problem, exports are. the GDP growth estimate fell short by 1.5-2 lakh crores, which would match roughly with fall in exports.

if modi govt wouldn't have been there, it would have been worse. they have cushioned the fall, by keeping the money flowing thru infra & welfare spending.
True . In times of trade war and protectionism in major economies export oriented growth model won't work. We need to take a step back and double down on import substitution and being self reliant on manufacturing of everything. As global trade picks growth again later we could scale that manufacturing up to capture exports.
 

cannonfodder

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Actually I had thought investment in India's equity would be great opportunity overall. But over last 2-3 years, investment in US equities have out grown than other economies. It is bit counter intuitive that developed economy is performing better than developing economy. Irrespective what one may think, Trump is holding US economy irrespective of trade war etc. @aditya10r @Haldiram.. Can any economy expert explain or we are seeing another buble?
 

Haldiram

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Actually I had thought investment in India's equity would be great opportunity overall. But over last 2-3 years, investment in US equities have out grown than other economies. It is bit counter intuitive that developed economy is performing better than developing economy. Irrespective what one may think, Trump is holding US economy irrespective of trade war etc. @aditya10r @Haldiram.. Can any economy expert explain or we are seeing another buble?
A country's equity market performing better than another country's market is not an indicator of the economy. Whether the population of a country parks their savings in equity depends on other factors like what returns they are being offered in alternate investment like bonds etc. US has very low bond yields so people gravitate towards equity. Investment in US equities has not only outperformed other markets, it has even outpaced US economic growth itself. The markets are running ahead of on-ground figures.

Equity markets and economic health are not always in 1:1 sync. Sometimes the markets anticipate an economic recovery and rally 2-3 years in advance before the actual GDP numbers come (like the 2014 rally in India).

Same thing happens with slowdowns. Our markets slowed down after 2016 but the numbers of slow GDP only came out in 2019.

The equity rally that is going on in India and US right now is in anticipation of an economic green patch that is YET to come in 2022. If one waits until the numbers are printed on the GDP, the market will have already priced that in before the GDP numbers are printed. Can't use GDP figures to time the market. It's a lagging indicator.
 

Knowitall

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@Haldiram sirji till when do you expect our growth to gallop back and we come back to our old numbers that is 8 percent growth.

What should and what should not be done to get this growth.
 

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