Indian Economy: News and Discussion

Innocent

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Italy tumbles into recession


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This is the first among many more to come.

How it affects India :


Italian companies invested €694 million in India in 2011, and over €1 billion in 2012. As of December 2012, Italy had an accumulated investment of €3.75 billion in India, or 9% of the total European Union FDI in India. Indian investment in Italy grew from €584 million in 2004 to €10 billion in 2011.

In 2016, Italian exports into India amounted to US$3.9 billion dollars; Indian exports into Italy accounted for US$4.9 billion dollars.

India is having surplus trade with Italy, isnt it a good thing?
 

Haldiram

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be wary about any news on Europe originating from UK.

For last 3 months brits are pushing the narrative that Europe will go into crisis if Britain leaves...
All the data is from 2011 onwards. It's basically a review of how they did the decade after 2008 crisis. British opinion aside, most of these economies only grew an abysmal 2% in the decade from 2008 to 2018 and now showing negative growth.

Just today France and Germany have announced that they will jointly built the next gen fighter jet. This coming after having built Rafale and Typhoon separately, is indicative that France does not have the funds to go it alone, and they don't want to include Britain in the JV. So there's some real churning going on in Europe. Britain is trying to jump a sinking ship and attach itself to the big market of China, and France/German duo is happy to kick Britain out and trying to attach itself to the big market of India. Each of these groups will basically sell their technical know how to Asia, in exchange for their mass manufacturing and mass consumption market.

If I were Murica, I'd be worried if the entire world stated working with each other. That's why Murica withdrew from the MNF treaty to scare Europe with the Russia card (they want Europe to buy their Aegis system). At the same time the US is threatening India by "collaborating with Talibal (which is a trope for going into the ISI camp)", to make sure India and Europe are kept busy licking their own wounds, instead of trading together in a world where the US is not a dominant player. Most of these nations have rejected the free trade agreement of Murica. When that failed, they started going after Venezuela, which is Asia's major oil source. This current recession is basically Murica throwing a huge tantrum. Let it settle down; A new world order is emerging.
 

Haldiram

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India is having surplus trade with Italy, isnt it a good thing?
It is a good-ish thing, depending on how it's looked at. If you're only looking at it as a market where our things are sold, then our potential customers becoming poor hurts our sales, but if you are thinking on global dominance terms, when other markets are in a slump, they tend to sell off their intellectual property/land/stock to keep their economy afloat. That's how Tata went and purchased big brands like Jaguar and Tetley, during the previous slump. It's no co-incidence that he bought Jaguar in the recession of 2008 and Tetley in the recession of 2000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession

Everyone was mocking Tata for showing hope during times of great gloom but chaalu niggas be chaalu. :troll:

A recession is a great time for people sitting on cash to acquire good stocks at discount rates. Vedanta recently bought 200 million $ stake in Anglo American. In fact, Indian companies have been going out and buying companies left and right during this recession. I'll make a list of all our recent purchases in another post.
 

Why so serious?

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India houses all the top 10 fastest growing cities in the world. Here's why
Surat, a major diamond trading and processing centre, tops the list. Next on the list is Agra followed by Bengaluru and Hyderabad
Anupa Kujur@AnupaSagarKujur







Indian cities are powering ahead of western urban cities in terms of annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth. All the top 10 fastest-growing cities by GDP between 2019 and 2035 will be in India, claims the Global Cities Report 2018 by research institute Oxford Economics.






Surat, a major diamond trading and processing centre, tops the list. The city, which also has a strong IT sector, will see an average annual GDP growth rate of 9.2 percent from 2019 to 2035.


Next on the list is Agra followed by Bengaluru and Hyderabad. Other cities in the top 10 ranks include Nagpur, Tirupur, Rajkot, Tiruchirappalli, Chennai and Vijayawada.
The study looked at 780 cities and estimated that the world’s major urban economies will grow by 2.8 percent a year.


Its authors say cities will drive growth of the global economy, which they project will expand by 2.6 percent per year.

"By 2035, the combined GDP of Indian cities will still be very small compared with Chinese (or indeed, North American and European) cities. However, in terms of GDP growth, it is Indian cities that are the star performers in our forecast," Richard Holt, Head of Global Cities Research at Oxford Economics, is quoted as saying in the report.

Here are the factors that are pushing the growth of these cities:

> India's growthIn its latest economic forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the Indian economy is set to grow faster than China in 2019 at 7.5 percent versus 6.2 percent for the latter. This comes even as IMF cut its world economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 due to weakness in Europe and some emerging markets.





Read: DATA STORY | India set to grow at a fast pace but here are its 3 biggest long-term challenges

India now makes up 15 percent of global growth, fuelled by reforms, foreign investment and strong domestic demand. However, with a favourable demographic profile and a large and growing consumer market, India is likely to be the most compelling growth story of the decade.








> Improvement in rankingsOwing to a number of reforms and policies, India has been improving its performance in a number of global rankings. For instance, India leapfrogged to the 77th rank in the World Bank's 2018 Ease of Doing Business rankings, jumping 23 notches from the preceding year.






Read: Ease of Doing Business: India jumps 23 spots to 77th rank in World Bank's latest report

The report recognised India as one of the top 10 improvers of the year for the second successive time. India became the only large country in 2018 to have achieved such a significant shift.

The country ranks 58th out of 140 economies in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Report, up five places from 2017.






It scores particularly strongly in innovation capability. However, corruption is still an issue hampering businesses, along with difficulty in accessing finance and high tax rates.


> Reformed policiesThe government has taken various initiatives to improve confidence and boost growth. It has taken measures to boost manufacturing and brought in comprehensive reforms in its foreign direct investment (FDI) policy. It also announced a special package for the textile industry, pushed infrastructure development by giving infrastructure status to affordable housing and is focusing on coastal connectivity.
 

Haldiram

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  • Ashok Leyland has set up a new facility in Dhaka, Bangladesh in a joint venture with IFAD Autos. The sales, service and spares facility is spread over 138,000 square feet and is going to cater to the entire range of Ashok Leyland vehicles.
  • Indian IT major Infosys is going to set up a technology and innovation hub in Texas and hire 500 American workers by 2020.
  • Tyre Manufacturer Balkrishna Industries is going to set up a US$ 100 million production facility in US. The plant will have an annual production capacity of 20,000 MT and will serve the entire American region.
  • Pharmaceutical major Cipla’s subsidiary, Cipla Maroc, opened a manufacturing plant for metered-dose inhalers in Ain Aouda in the Rabat region in Morocco. The facility is spread over a total area of 4,000 square meters and has a capacity of 1.5 million HFA metered-dose inhalers.
  • Apollo Tyres has commenced commercial production of its truck tyres at its facility in Hungaria. This is the company’s second facility in Europe and has an installed capacity of 14,000 passenger car tyres a day and 1,200 truck tyres a day.
  • Pidilite Lanka Pvt Ltd, ahesives manufacturer Pidilite’s joint venture (JV) company with Macbertan Pvt Ltd, unveiled a new world class manufacturing plant in Sri Lanka. The plant is spread over an area of four acres and will help the company enhance its market share in the country.
  • India’s cinema companies are planning to foray into the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Carnival Cinema’s is planning to open 500 screens in Saudi Arabia over the next five years. Also, PVR Cinemas has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Dubai-based Al-Futtaim Group to explore opportunities for entering the cinema business in the MENA region.
  • Thirumalai Chemicals’ subsidiary in Malaysia is going to enhance its Maleic Anhydride production capacity to 65,000 tons per year. Further, Thirumalai Chemicals is exploring the possibility of setting up a greenfield facility for production of food ingredients in US, which will serve the North American and European markets.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd entered into a joint venture (JV) with Ideal Motors Ltd to set up an automotive assembly plant in Sri Lanka. The plant will provide new opportunities to both the companies in Sri Lanka, which is one of Mahindra’s top three export markets.
  • Indian IT services provider Tech Mahindra is going to invest Rs 5.1 billion (US$ 78.54 million) in Canada over the next five years for setting up of a centre of excellence which will operate on major technologies such as blockchain application and Artificial Intelligence (AI).
  • Indian firms have employed a total of 113,423 people and made investments over US$ 17.9 billion in the US.
  • Sterlite Power has won a 1,800 km power transmission project worth US$ 800 million in Brazil, the company's third project in Brazil and the largest ever project won by an Indian company in Latin America.
  • Indian conglomerate, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), is going to invest US$ 25 million in Israel-based Jerusalem Innovation Incubator (JII), which will focus on startups working in the field of big data, analytics, Internet of Things and other similar areas.
https://www.ibef.org/economy/indian-investments-abroad

Indian investments in Africa : https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ORF_OccasionalPaper_142_India_Africa.pdf
 

Indx TechStyle

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DATA STORY | Real estate may add 13% to India's GDP by 2025. Here are the hurdles that lie ahead
While the government has brought in laws such as RERA, over 80 percent of consumers are of the view that there has not been much change in the property buying experience.

The Indian real estate sector is expected to contribute 13 percent to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025, according to the 'Indian Real Estate and Construction: Consolidating for growth' report by National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) and Asia Pacific Real Estate Association (APREA).
In 2017, the realty sector contributed about 6-7 percent to India's GDP. The sector is expected to touch $1 trillion by 2030, becoming the third largest globally.
Apart from its contribution to India's GDP, the growth of this sector holds significance as it is the third largest employer, after agriculture and manufacturing, in the country and presently employs over 50 million people.
Even though the overall business sentiment in 2018 turned positive owing to the current government's focus on affordable housing, regulatory reforms, and infrastructure status to warehousing, there are challenges that continue to exist. Here are some of the major challenges that lie ahead:
> Proper implementation of laws
Proper implementation of the law in the real estate sector is one of the key challenges. Realty players have expressed concerns over long approval processes, unavailability of land records and a high cost of funding.
Keeping transparency in land ownership rights, maintaining land records, procuring goods and services at the right price are among other challenges facing the sector. It is estimated that on an average $700 million is being paid in bribes at land registrars across India each year, as per the report.
Going forward, the fast-track clearing process and work towards removing bureaucratic delays would be critical.
Other challenges to look out for would include introducing a simpler/single window clearance process to reduce unnecessary construction delays, offer attractive incentives to private developers and controlling inflation and offering tax rebates on construction processes.
Ever since the Goods & Service Tax (GST) regime kicked in in July 2017, real estate developers have been seeking rationalisation of GST. The developers want the Centre to reduce GST on under-construction housing properties to five percent.
At present, the GST is levied at 12 percent on payments made for under-construction property or ready-to-move-in flats where completion certificate has not been issued at the time of sale.
"Real estate developers/investors are facing challenges in raising funds for residential projects as investors are sceptical towards the housing sector, despite the government’s launching of various policies towards affordable housing. Deploying capital is also challenging as home sales remain low, there is unavailability of mature assets and high investor expectations persist," the report noted.
The government may also have to streamline the market considering more equity investments are expected in the future. Despite decreasing private equity investments in the residential sector, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) have been lending to the housing segment as the cost of capital is lower and many developers prefer debt over equity. However, the liquidity crisis faced by NBFCs has triggered concerns for property developers.
While the government has brought in laws such as Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016, over 80 percent of consumers are of the view that there has not been much change in the property buying experience despite the enactment of the new regulatory mechanism, according to a pan-India survey by Track2Realty.
> Tackling pollution
Indian cities are grappling with alarming rates of congestion and pollution. Breathing toxic air and drinking polluted water among others may lead to a fast deterioration in the quality of life of its citizens.
With India projected to add 300 million new urban residents by 2050, it will need to build climate-friendly cities to address the challenge of accommodating the needs of the growing population, according to World Cities Report 2016 - Urbanisation and Development: Emerging Futures report by UN Habitat.
Central to this challenge is the twin bottlenecks of municipal finance and infrastructure finance for transport, electricity, communications, water supply and sanitation in support of production.
Going forward, India would have to improve overall access to and affordability of healthcare services to deal with the growing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) due to various pollutants. NCDs, which currently account for 63 percent of all deaths in India, are on the rise owing to unhealthy food and lifestyle choices, across both urban and rural areas, and across income segments.
The country may also have to deal with the impending crises in air and water pollution, waste management and urban congestion. Nine of the world's 10 most air-polluted cities are in India, according to a World Health Organisation's (WHO) study.
People in India would live an average 4.3 years longer if the country met the global guidelines for particulate pollution, according to the Air Quality-Life Index (AQLI) report by the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC). The report noted that the effect of pollution on life expectancy is worse than HIV/AIDS, cigarette smoking and even terrorism.
If India meets the national Air Quality Standards or WHO standards for PM2.5 – particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in size, several cities would gain in terms of life expectancy, according to AQLI report.

Thus, India needs to deal with these challenges to materialise its positive vision for the future.
> Meeting increased energy demand
It is no surprise that the country's state distribution companies (discoms) are running in losses. States' electricity discoms are set to miss their target of paring down aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses to 15 percent by FY19-end under the government's flagship scheme Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY).
The government had launched the scheme in November 2015 with an aim to financially turnaround state discoms.

Compared to the all-India average, demand for power has increased over the years at a phenomenal rate, according to a report by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
After the electrification of 1.4 crore new households under the Saubhagya scheme (or Pradhan Mantri Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana ) -- aimed at providing electricity to all, there has been a rise in demand from rural areas.
India completed the electrification all the villages under Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY) through REC (earlier Rural Electrification Corporation) by the Ministry of Power in April last year.
In October 2018, peak power demand in India reached 180 GW, an increase of 9.8 percent over the peak power demand recorded in the prior corresponding period.

This was due to the rampant addition of household connections under the government's Saubhagya scheme, a pick-up in industrial production and a reduction in the average duration of power cuts.
Strong economic growth, an increasing number of electrical connections under the Saubhagya scheme, roll-out of electric vehicles and other similar initiatives will further increase power demand in the future.
In order to cater to the energy needs of the growing urban population, the state may have to take measures to cut losses and boost India's energy production from sustainable sources.
> Technology
The pace of change in technological advancements brings forth its own set of challenges. Advances in the information and operational technology is transforming how offices and commercial estates will be operated and managed in India.
According to the report, real estate tech has now grown from the initial phase of software and marketplaces to an advanced phase of technologies, which is helping incumbents of the new era in resolving traditional issues of yesteryears.
"Rapidly evolving technology and changing regulatory landscape is redefining how the real estate business is conducted and managed in the Indian scenario. What’s noteworthy is how virtual tours of property, digital contracts, centralised command and control centres, smart building solutions and cloud storage are quickly becoming common industry practices and are gradually heading to a tech-driven real estate sector," Niranjan Hiranandani, National President-NAREDCO and co-founder and MD, Hiranandani Group was quoted as saying in the report.
Real estate leaders are recognising their company's increased exposure to cyber risk and close to one-third of the real estate leaders reported that their company had experienced a cybersecurity issue over the last 24 months, KPMG US revealed in its 2017 Real Estate Industry Outlook survey.
While the implementation of the available technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics and Internet of Things (IoT) is challenging, they can help solve a number of issues that have crippled the real estate sector. These issues include the dependence of homebuyers and renters on middlemen, market volatility, cybersecurity as well as optimisation of resource such as water and electricity to reduce wastage.
Stringent regulations and compliance norms, technology-driven operational complexities, cost of emerging technology adoption, value management, cybersecurity, data-privacy and third-party risk management have become key concerns for every organisation in the world. Overall, these are some of the key concern areas that need to be addressed are:
 

Haldiram

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DATA STORY | Real estate may add 13% to India's GDP by 2025. Here are the hurdles that lie ahead
While the government has brought in laws such as RERA, over 80 percent of consumers are of the view that there has not been much change in the property buying experience.


> Proper implementation of laws

> Tackling pollution



> Meeting increased energy demand





> Technology

Well compiled article.

Cement, tiles, pipes, plywood sector has independently picked up but real estate sector has remained crashed. It hasn't yet picked up from the 2008 crash.

 

HariPrasad-1

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France and Germany on BRINK of major RECESSION

Germany :

Germany faces its lowest industrial productions since 2008.

The country’s economy shrunk by 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2018, another drop in the fourth-quarter would mean Germany will have entered a recession, defined as two straight quarters of negative output.

France :


Data showed a 1.3 percent fall in industry output in November, which left production down an annual 2.1 percent, the most in four years. After two quarters of negative growth, industrial production growth only each 0.7 percent in the third quarter.



Britain :





How it affects India :

The EU is India's largest trading partner with 12.5% of India's overall trade between 2015 and 2016, ahead of China (10.8%) and the United States (9.3%). India is the EU's 9th largest trading partner with 2.4% of the EU's overall trade.
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First Greece collapsed > then Italy > next France > Germany > Britain > USA

And Western analysts are busy predicting a collapse of China and India.

It seems that all these countries together are pushing India to the place of 4th largest economy (Nominal) very fast. Britain shall be surpassed very shortly. Germany shall take another 2 to 3 years. Japan may take six to seven years. US may take 15 to 20 years and china will take 30 to 35 years to be surpassed.
 

Haldiram

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It seems that all these countries together are pushing India to the place of 4th largest economy (Nominal) very fast. Britain shall be surpassed very shortly. Germany shall take another 2 to 3 years. Japan may take six to seven years. US may take 15 to 20 years and china will take 30 to 35 years to be surpassed.
Extrapolated at current rate, yes, but there can always be surprises. Who knew that all these new internet giants like Facebook, Google, Amazon would give a second lease of life to the American economy and extend their dominance further beyond the 90's and beyond just selling weapons.

Something might come up, AI, machine learning, IOT, anything, and extend it even further.

 

Chinmoy

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Haldiram

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I think @Haldiram mentioned this recently.

India is wise to curb big tech's monopolistic ways

PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel openly exposes one of tech industry's darket secrets: it likes to build monopolies. Competition is for losers, he says, because it limits profits.

https://tech.economictimes.indiatim...-to-curb-big-techs-monopolistic-ways/67876016
McDonald's loses 'Big Mac' trademark case to Irish chain Supermac's

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European regulator has ruled in favor of a local European burger company, which means that McDonald's can't use the 'Big Mac' trademark there.
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EU Hits Google With $5 Billion Fine For Pushing Apps On Android Users

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In another ruling, Europe has said that Google cannot list any European websites in their search results unless Google pays the site owner for displaying their excerpts in search results, because it amounts to plagiarism. Elsewhere people feel "lucky" that their site was indexed by Google. Look at the contrast in mindset.

This is what countries with a spine do. They protect their companies and citizens. India has come a long way from our Union Carbide days. Makes me proud to see the steps we have taken in the recent times.

This was one such strong move :

India asks Mastercard to stop siphoning Indian customer's data..

Mastercard lodged U.S. protest over Modi's action

India : No worries; RBI will blacklist Mastercard...

Mastercard will delete Indian cardholders’ data from servers.

India : :troll:

Power is not just about weapons and armies. Power comes from enforcing your will.
 
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Why so serious?

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India jumps 8 places to 36th on International IP Index
India's eight-point jump in 2019 from 44th position in 2018 is the highest increase among 50 nations mapped by the index, a release said.
By ET Bureau | Updated: Feb 08, 2019, 07.34 AM IST
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    The index ranks countries based on 45 indicators that are critical to an innovation-led economy supported by robust patent, trademark, copyright, and trade secrets protection.
    NEW DELHI: Recognition of international standards of copyright protection and incentives for intellectual property have helped India jump eight places to 36th position on the International Intellectual Property (IP) Index, the highest gain for any country this year.

    The index, which analyses the IP climate in 50 global economies, is brought out by the US Chamber of Commerce's Global Innovation Policy Center (GIPC). “The improvement reflects important reforms implemented by Indian policymakers towards building and sustaining an innovation ecosystem for domestic entrepreneurs and foreign investors alike,” it said in a statement. The index ranks countries based on 45 indicators.
    Cons of the richer millennial

    India's overall score has also increased substantially from 30.07% (12.03 out of 40) in the previous edition to 36.04% (16.22 out of 45) in the present edition.



    “For the second year in a row, India's score represents the largest gain of any country measured on the Index, which covers over 90 % of global gross domestic product,” said Patrick Kilbride, senior vice president of GIPC.

    Among the weaknesses, the index has cited barriers to licensing and technology transfer, including strict registration norms, limited framework for the protection of biopharmaceutical IP rights, patentability ruless outside international standards, lengthy pre-grant opposition proceedings and previously used compulsory licensing for commercial and non-emergency situations as key hurdles.
 

AnantS

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We are speaking of strategic research,not business research. India is not focused on business research as the geopolitical atmosphere is not conducive. USA does opposite because of dollar being international currency and hence requirement & opportunity to extend all services anywhere with little restrictions. The same research done in India may not yield same return due to different geopolitics.

If you don't understand the complexity of finance & politics, please don't talk on these topics. There is a reason why I always speak of strategic R&D rather than commercial R&D. Strategic technology is absolutely useful whereas commercial ones depend on complex parameters
If one wants to do innovation - geopolitics doesn't stop you!! What are the geopolitics which stopped Tata or Ashok Leyland to develop alternative to Renault Sherpa? Kalyani just acquired Submarine assembly yard in UK, what geopolitics stopped that from happening?

and before Indian Industries say "Defense", there innovation record in "civilian" space is nothing to write about. Why because they fear "Nano" episode - investment not bearing immediate fruit/returns. There is no long term thinking and there is no culture of R&D. And in defense - No private company in India has the the guts or will power to accept the amount of money one has to plough in or have the patience to wait for the orders to materialize.
 
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Advaidhya Tiwari

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If one wants to do innovation - geopolitics doesn't stop you!! What are the geopolitics which stopped Tata or Ashok Leyland to develop alternative to Renault Sherpa? Kalyani just acquired Submarine assembly yard in UK, what geopolitics stopped that from happening?

and before Indian Industries say "Defense", there innovation record in "civilian" space is nothing to write about. Why because they fear "Nano" episode - investment not bearing immediate fruit/returns. There is no long term thinking and there is no culture of R&D. And in defense - No private company in India has the the guts or will power to accept the amount of money one has to plough in or have the patience to wait for the orders to materialize.
All R&D in any part of the world comes from GOVT. No country can develop new things from private money. There is none with that much funds to develop new things except government.

Next, India was not a consumer market due to low amount of wealth and resources per capita. It made no snse for any private companies to manufacture high technology civilan items in India before 21st century.

The one thing that irritates me is your complete lack of efforts to analyse the situation and cost benefit analysis of any action. Instead you simply continually keep complaining with cheap and short sighted answers which make no sense for more intelligent people
 

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