Indian Economy: News and Discussion

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https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry/lessons-from-hitlers-4-year-plan-applied-to-china-today
The Past- Hitlers 4 Year Plan

Looking at specific points in history it is always fascinating to imagine how events would have changed if one side of an equation had understood the true intentions of the other side, and thus had been able to modify their response to avert a conflict. One of the prime examples of this situation was the run-up to WW2 from 1936 onwards. This was the critical time in Hilter's expansionary plans, which crystallized with the reoccupation of the demilitarized Rhineland as outlined in my Murrinations Lessons From French Failures in 1936 Applied-To China Today From that Point onwards Hitler's determination that Germany’s old enemies were weak and would fall to Germany became reality. Thus he commissioned what is known as the Four Year Plan that would end in 1940. This plan would accelerate the rearmament of Germany for war and simultaneously prepare the country for self-sufficiency so it could not be economically strangled as it has been in 1918 by the Royal Navy.

In so doing it would revitalize the German economy and reduce the 30% mass unemployment. The German version of America's new deal also took advantage of low-interest rates to borrow to fund the national expansion. Initially, it was lead by Hjalmar Schacht, who was president of the central bank under Hitler and who then became finance minister in 1936. Schacht was replaced in 1937 by Hermann Goering. Under Goering imports were slashed. Wages and prices were controlled--under penalty of being sent to a concentration camp. While the state intervention into the economy almost led to full employment, real wages dropped by roughly 25%. Government financing became the predominant investment process, with private securities issued falling from by over half in 1933-1934 to 10% in 1935-1938. Thus Germany's economy has been transformed into a state-controlled war economy whose main output was weapons. Therein lay the catch, unless they then used those weapons to go to war and expand Germany’s territory and resources by 1940. Germany would have gone bust, just as later happened to the USSR in 1990.

Thus from the moment that Hitler committed Germany to the four-year plan war was inevitable.

If Chamberlin had known there was such a critical economic imperative, there is little doubt that his concept of peace in our time could never have existed. Instead, Britain might have accelerated her war preparations along with France and in so doing could have deterred German aggression, if not repelled it at the border in the summer of 1940.



The Present-Chinas Five Year Plan

Looking at China today, it has similar expansionary energy related to the second phase of the empire cycle, as did the second and third Reich. It is also in a similar state of economic contraction as was Germany in the post-1929 crash. Yet I do not expect a regime change as the CCP is firmly in control. The pandemic has accelerated the shift from a manufacturing export-driven economy to one that like the Third Reich that will become more self-contained. With manufacturing refocussing on the Chinese consumer and less on exports to the West as the wall comes down. The obvious consumption gap will be compensated for by the initiation of a Chinese five-year plan that will seek to use surplus manufacturing capability to fuel an arms race, preparing China for a global war by 2025.

As part of this process, I expect to see the Yuan appreciate considerably as a reflection of the relative power of China versus America. Whilst America will be happy to weaken its currency to stimulate exports and its manufacturing as its fills the void created as the Chinese are inhibited from selling into the West. Simultaneously the Chinese will be happy to increase their currency's buying power to acquire raw materials for its economy. Internally I would expect the CCP to do all it can to reinflate the housing bubble as this is the main store of value for households in China (real estate represents 75% of household wealth in China compared to 28% in the US). Without external investment, China will, just like The Third Reich did, become a militarised state-controlled economy.

If there is one lesson that history teaches about similar periods at this stage of the empire cycle as China is now in, is that the greater the internal economic pressures the higher the probability of aggressive expansionary behaviour to solve the problem. Japan in 1931 is an excellent example. Like Germany the depression in Japan was so severe that the country went bust—i.e., it was forced to abandon the gold standard and float its currency, which then depreciated so much that Japan ran out of buying power. The terrible economic conditions and large wealth gaps led to fighting between the left and the right. Which by 1932 had resulted in a massive upsurge in right-wing nationalism and militarism to forcefully restore order and bring back economic stability. This only reinforced that path which started the empire's expansion in 1931 with the invasion of Manchuria to acquire natural resources (e.g., oil, iron, coal, and rubber) and human resources (i.e., slave labor to fuel their expansion.)

If Chamberlin were alive today what would he advise western leaders to do?

The lessons from history are very clear concerning China. It is now on its own five-year plan, that like Germany's will force it to then use its military power to go to war, to expand and pay back its five-year investment. With such internal dynamics in play western politicians need to understand that the only way to deter what is now almost an inevitable WW3 is to match China in the current arms race, to deter any aggression and to simultaneously constrict China’s natural resource chains as soon as possible to limit its growth. Before it has the military capability to run up its resource chains and protect them.


https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry/our-brave-new-multi-polar-world

OUR BRAVE NEW MULTI-POLAR WORLD?

At the turn of the twenty-first century, the notion that within a decade the seemingly indomitable power of the US and Western Capitalist democracy will be in decline would have been unthinkable throughout most of the world. However, the power shift from the West to the East is now only too apparent, and the indications are clear for those who choose to see them that the rate of this massive geopolitical shift will now only accelerate and its consequences exceed anything most people can perceive. Yet being able to entertain a vision of this future is not enough; we also need an insight into its mechanisms

In the section The Book Of The Future within Breaking The Code Of history I considered not only what can happen but also how it might happen. Using an understanding of the principles of the empire cycle, we might choose to navigate the rough waters of our unconscious collective behaviour in order to arrive at a new geopolitical paradigm.

Imagine, if you will, two tectonic plates of enormous scale that have, over centuries, built up tremendous forces at their interstices. They appear immobilised and inert until, without warning, all of that pent-up energy is released in less than a minute. The result, of course, would be an immensely destructive earthquake. Such tectonic stresses are analogous to geopolitical tensions, and since 2000 we have been witness to the greatest build-up of such tensions in history – not merely between empires but, for the first time, between the world’s first two super-empires: the declining Western Christian Super-Empire (WCSE) and the burgeoning Asian Super Empire (ASE).

Given the six geopolitical drivers that were discussed in The Book Of The Present – multipolarity, commodities, polarisation, global military balance, disease and climate change – as the West-to-East transition unfolds, I believe that it is inevitable that, unless addressed, the geopolitical tensions caused by Chinese expansion and the competition for resources will bring the world to a third global war. This will happen not at some indefinable date in the future but by 2025, as the current commodity cycle reaches its peak. Indeed, in many ways, the second decade of the twenty-first century bears an uncanny resemblance to the ten years preceding World War Two. The question is, faced with such a potentially disastrous future, what steps can be taken to change the patterns of human behaviour to prevent the occurrence of another world war?

This is an extract from Breaking the Code of History- The Book Of The Future Published in 2009
You may not know , China have 5 year plan from its establishment from 1953.

This is the 14th 5 year plan.
 

DG7867

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The real worries are starting now , Few of my colleagues who were laid off in the first batch in June are still struggling to even get an interview call forget job offer . Non IT salaried class will be worst hit ones and their recovery also will be toughest . Long and hard days ahead for Non IT salaried class for sure .:tsk:

Five million salaried people lost jobs in July; their ballooning numbers a source of worry: CMIE

Nearly five million salaried people lost their jobs in July, taking the total number of job losses in the category to 18.9 million despite recovery in overall employment rate which is driven by the informal sector, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said, cautioning the ballooning numbers of job losses among salaried class is a source of worry.

CMIE data shows 17.7 million salaried jobs were lost in April 2020 and another 0.1 million jobs were lost in May. Though 3.9 million jobs were gained in June, additional five million jobs were lost in July.

“On a net basis, the plight of salaried employees has worsened since the lockdown began as by July, their losses had swelled to 18.9 million,” CMIE said, adding it is an unhealthy recovery and the situation has worsened for the salaried jobs.

It is estimated that only 21% of all employment in India is in the form of a salaried employment which is more resilient to economic shocks. As a result, job losses among them accounted for only 15% of all job losses in April.

“While salaried jobs are not lost easily, once lost they are also far more difficult to retrieve. Therefore, their ballooning numbers are a source of worry,” CMIE cautioned. Salaried jobs were nearly 19 million short of their average in 2019-20.

CMIE had earlier estimated 121.5 million jobs were lost in the first month of the lockdown in April. This loss narrowed down to 100.3 million in May which further narrowed down significantly to 29.9 million in June and now to just 11 million in July.

According to CMIE, the recovery in jobs reflects, to a great extent, an unlocking of the economy from the draconian cessation of practically all economic activities save a few in late March and through most of April.

Perhaps, it also reflects the desperation of Indians to get back to some employment after a rather prolonged involuntary break, it said.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
"Draconian cessation of all economic activities save a few in late March and through most of April" what brew of ganja are these schmucks smoking?
 

Historian

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Land and labour mainly.. but both of them are very difficult to implement.
Can you explain further?

A lot of a business climate is probably related to state and municipal regulations on law use, taxes, compliance, and labor laws. What kind of state and city-level economic reforms is India seeing this year? I read that Gujarat is the most active state for reforming its laws to encourage business activity.
 

Haldilal

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Me knew it.

"Give a man a fish and something something.. teach a man to fish...and something something" :D that what has happened with our Vegetables oil sectors.

images (16).jpeg

India is a next food exporter, but we still depends heavily on the oil imports. India imports 68 percent of its oil imports that is equal to 1.5 Crores tonnes annually out of 2.2 crores tonnes total annual demand. The palm oil contributes to 9 million tonnes of the oil's imports. The vegetable oil are still over looked despite its positives sides. The palm oil is preffered due to its price and by the industries due to its edibility.

The oil palm is the highest oil yielding plant in the world. With good planting material, irrigation, and proper management, oil palm has the potential to produce 20-25 MT fresh fruit bunches (FFB) per hectare after attaining the age of 5 years. This, in turn, is capable of yielding 4-5 MT of palm oil and 0.4-0.5 MT palm kernel oil (PKO) which is about 4.5 times the yield of other traditional oilseeds, on average.

images.png


The world production of the vegetable oils stand at 20 crores Tonnes annually. The India is the largest importer of the Vegetable oil in the world. that 4 million MT of traditional oils is being produced in the country by using 15.80 million hectares of land. This much quantity of palm oil could be produced from just 1 million hectares. Thus, one million hectares under oil palm is akin to more than 15 million hectares under another mix of oilseeds. Currently, the country has only about 3.3 lakh hectares under oil palm, while the potential identified for it is 19.3 lakh hectares in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Mizoram, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and the other N-E States.

images (1).png


We should consider seriously to increase our production of the Vegetable oil to reduce our imports and agricultural imports.
 

Haldilal

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The Copper impact

A humble letter to Piyush Goyal

India needs to restart the Sterlite Copper Plant at all costs. India’s copper imports doubled within a year from 44,245 tonnes in 2017-18 to 92,290 tonnes in 2018-19 Biggest beneficiary: was the China & Pakistan. Environment Considerations can be addressed by laying down strict norms & timelines & monitoring by an empowered committee starlite Copper needs to must cooperate. Govt needs to fight it out sincerely in the court of law and crush the opposition with an iron hand. Displacement of few thousand people can't take precedence over a national interest. Relocation of the entire plant is also an option. At the same time Indian Copper production is to be protected from import. The Sterlite Copper has taken insurance of Fifty Crores rupees under Public Liability Insurance Act for Environment Protection.
 

Haldilal

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India is paying the price of kneeling to agenda driven China backed NGO Protests. Pakistan and China benefitting from shutting down Sterilite plant. This is not done!
 

DG7867

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Me knew it.

"Give a man a fish and something something.. teach a man to fish...and something something" :D that what has happened with our Vegetables oil sectors.

View attachment 56829
India is a next food exporter, but we still depends heavily on the oil imports. India imports 68 percent of its oil imports that is equal to 1.5 Crores tonnes annually out of 2.2 crores tonnes total annual demand. The palm oil contributes to 9 million tonnes of the oil's imports. The vegetable oil are still over looked despite its positives sides. The palm oil is preffered due to its price and by the industries due to its edibility.

The oil palm is the highest oil yielding plant in the world. With good planting material, irrigation, and proper management, oil palm has the potential to produce 20-25 MT fresh fruit bunches (FFB) per hectare after attaining the age of 5 years. This, in turn, is capable of yielding 4-5 MT of palm oil and 0.4-0.5 MT palm kernel oil (PKO) which is about 4.5 times the yield of other traditional oilseeds, on average.

View attachment 56827

The world production of the vegetable oils stand at 20 crores Tonnes annually. The India is the largest importer of the Vegetable oil in the world. that 4 million MT of traditional oils is being produced in the country by using 15.80 million hectares of land. This much quantity of palm oil could be produced from just 1 million hectares. Thus, one million hectares under oil palm is akin to more than 15 million hectares under another mix of oilseeds. Currently, the country has only about 3.3 lakh hectares under oil palm, while the potential identified for it is 19.3 lakh hectares in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Mizoram, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and the other N-E States.

View attachment 56828

We should consider seriously to increase our production of the Vegetable oil to reduce our imports and agricultural imports.
Kerala is the only region that has conditions suitable for growing palm oil tree 😐 maybe mizoram comes close second..
 

Haldilal

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Kerala is the only region that has conditions suitable for growing palm oil tree 😐 maybe mizoram comes close second..
Key word Nigga Anuanchal Pardesh Lakhs of Hectares and Acres of Land is just lying for us to farm.





 

Haldilal

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Haldilal

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Why then tamil Nadu ..can't we open it again let's say in Gujrat
That will depend on the decision made by the Vendanta board. If they had to do they would have already looked for another site in a investment free states like Gujrat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pardesh. Just to restart the plant would require 200 crores rupees. Investment for a new plant will exceed in tens of thousand of crores. The investment is huge and non guarantee that this will not happen again. The damn Chineses funded missionary after our strategic industries. :mad2::mad2::mad2::mad2:
 

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Our GDP growth percentage is better compared to others (atleast it is in positive side )
Nope. This 1.9% estimation was from IMFs April'2020 report. Times have taken a turn for the worse since then.

India’s FY21 GDP to shrink 6%: Barclays

Indian economy likely to contract by 16.5% in Q1FY21: SBI report
 

Bhurki

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These are the newest estimations for India's GDP -

World Bank sees higher GDP fall in India than 3.2% it projected for FY21



“In our revised projections, which will be available in October 2020, we will likely project a steeper contraction (more than -3.2%) in the economy,” the Bank said.

Various agencies and economists have provided varying figures for India’s GDP contraction for FY21. While former chief statistician Pronab Sen has pegged it at 12.5 per cent, ICRA had forecast 9.5 per cent and India Ratings 5.3 per cent.
 

LondonParisTokyo

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That will depend on the decision made by the Vendanta board. If they had to do they would have already looked for another site in a investment free states like Gujrat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pardesh. Just to restart the plant would require 200 crores rupees. Investment for a new plant will exceed in tens of thousand of crores. The investment is huge and non guarantee that this will not happen again. The damn Chineses funded missionary after our strategic industries. :mad2::mad2::mad2::mad2:
Why JUST blame Chinese? This is a failure of the Indian state as well. The protests should have been anticipated and shut down before starting. Or, should have been destroyed for national interest. Enough blaming. Step up to the plate and start taking ownership.
 

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