Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[IndianHawk]

HOw about this fiscal? There are reports predicting contraction from 2 to 10%

There will be some contraction . Not that much. Economy is already recovering. One quarter will see severe contraction March -june. Those reports are typical sensationalist doom and gloom prophecy.

 

[Spindrift]

We will recover very very fast.

How?

 

[IndianHawk]

How?

Because it's a artificial slowdown via lockdown . Economic activities are merely paused as lockdown lifts us all the backlog demand will drive the fast growth back to normality .

 

[IndianHawk]

We have been talking about chinese import replacement.

Here is what we import mostly from china.

As we can already see electrical ( including electronics) is biggest import. But it's already coming down from peak of 27-28 billion to about 20 billion now.

Second is machinery curve of which we have flattened since last 2-3 years. Another good sign.

Then there are things like fertilizer , iron steel , plastic, organic chemicals and medical equipment.

Most of these things are easily replaceable given adequate protection and scale for domestic manufacturing.

Specially if we can move electrical / electronic supply chain in India we would wipe out half the defecit with china.

 

[Spindrift]

Because it's a artificial slowdown via lockdown . Economic activities are merely paused as lockdown lifts us all the backlog demand will drive the fast growth back to normality .

As far as I know there was a demand problem before the CCP Virus precipitated lockdown and the lockdown just exacerbated problem. Once the situation with the CCP Virus improves the demand will go up, but the question is how much, will it go beyond the demand that persisted prior to the lockdown or hover around the same mark or below it?

 

[IndianHawk]

As far as I know there was a demand problem before the CCP Virus precipitated lockdown and the lockdown just exacerbated problem. Once the situation with the CCP Virus improves the demand will go up, but the question is how much, will it go beyond the demand that persisted prior to the lockdown or hover around the same mark or below it?

Well initially after lockdown demand should jump much higher to make up for lockdown plunge . Hence prediction of 9.5 % gdp growth next year. After that depends on how much advantage we can take of new world economic landscape.

If we can attract more investment instead of china we can grow much faster. But we will still grow 6-7% even if nothing changes.

 

[yoggs]

Fitch Ratings: Indian economy to grow at 9.5% in next fiscal | India Business News - Times of India

India Business News: After a contraction in the current financial year, India's economy is forecast to bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5 per cent next year provi

m.timesofindia.com

We will recover very very fast.

FDI is growing. Also 20 Lack crores should help if schemes are implemented properly. We are spending more on infrastructure too. Many overseas companies have accepted the new schemes as per the sources. These are all leading signals for a healthy economy to come though not immediately.

 

[Rxbanda]

Mallya extradition expected in first week of June didn't happen which was disappointing.

But some progress in case of other fugitives.

Nirav Modi News: ED brings back Rs 1,350 crore worth polished diamonds, pearls of Nirav Modi, Choksi firms from Hong Kong | India Business News - Times of India

India Business News: The ED brought back over 2,300 kg of polished diamonds and pearls worth Rs 1,350 crore of firms belonging to Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi from Hong Kon

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

 

[IndianHawk]

Daikin to go ahead with its plan for third manufacturing unit in India

Daikin Air conditioning India, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Japan-based Daikin Industries, said the company is ready to take advantage of the – Phased Manufacturing Program (PMP), under which the government has announced incentives for manufactures to promote "Make in India".

www.moneycontrol.com

More AC to be build in India and to be exported to Africa.

Like I said before we can very well become electronis manufacturing hub now and reduce chinese import drastically.

 

[Gautam Sarkar]

India fuel demand: As fuel demand doubles, IOC ups refining to 83% | India Business News - Times of India

India Business News: IndianOil has ramped up refinery operations to 83% of capacity as fuel demand more than doubled on easing of corona curbs to allow economic activities

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Using biscuits sales figure as an indicator of the entire country's economic condition wasn't a good idea then, it isn't a good idea now.

 

[IndianHawk]

PM Modi to India Inc: 'Time for bold investments, not conservative decisions'

PM Modi delivered the inaugural address of the 95th annual plenary session of the Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC) today via video conferencing.

www.livemint.com

Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said that India should convert the COVID-19 crisis into a turning point towards becoming a self-reliant nation. PM Modi also emphasized the need for import-substitution while delivering the inaugural address of the 95th annual plenary session of the Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC) on Thursday via video conferencing.
PM Modi said that North-East India could become a major hub for organic farming by creating bamboo and organic product clusters in the region.
Here are the important updates about from Modi's ICC address:
1) Apart from Covid-19, India is also facing challenges from other areas such as locust swarms invasion, gas well explosion in Assam's Tinsukia, Cyclone Amphan and minor tremors across India.
2) Coronavirus would be turning point as India becomes self-reliant due to this crisis.

3) Aatamnirbhar lessons start at home. Time has come for India to become self-reliant.
4) It is high time India becomes vocal for local.
5) Every citizen of this country has resolved to turn this crisis into an opportunity. We have to make this a major turning point for India's growth story. What is that turning point? A self-reliant India.
7) Indian farmers have got their true freedom due the recent reforms. They can go to any part of the country to sell their produce.
8) Industries will have think how they will turn Indian into a net exporter of products.
9) Indians are saving a total of ₹19,000 crore due to usage of LED bulbs. Carbon emissions have also reduced due to the same.

10) At this time we've to take Indian economy out of 'command and control' and take it towards 'plug and play'. This isn't the time for conservative approach. It's time for bold decisions and bold investments. It's time to prepare a globally competitive domestic supply chain.
11) Decades ago Swami Vivekananda wrote, 'The simplest method to be worked upon at present is to induce Indians to use their own produce and get markets for Indian artware in other countries'. This path shown by Swami Vivekananda is inspiration for India in post-COVID world.
12) DBT, JAM have helped millions of beneficiaries.
13) We have to revive manufacturing sector in West Bengal; this is time for bold investments, not conservative decisions.
14) Recent decisions taken by Centre for farmers have freed agriculture economy from years of slavery.

15) We have to turn COVID-19 crisis into opportunity for creating Atmanirbhar Bharat.

16) We have to revive the historical excellence of Bengal in manufacturing sector. We've always heard "What Bengal thinks today, India thinks tomorrow". We have to take inspiration from this and move forward together.

17) At the core of Atma Nirbhar Bharat is the belief 'Atma-Vishwasi Bharatiya'

18) People-centric, people-driven and planet-friendly development have become part of our governance

19) Banking services have even reached the 'have nots' section of the society.

20) Our economy has become cashless and contactless due to UPI usage.

 

[IndianHawk]

) Indians are saving a total of ₹19,000 crore due to usage of LED bulbs. Carbon emissions have also reduced due to the same

That's almost 3 billion usd saving right there.

 

[yoggs]

That's almost 3 billion usd saving right there.

I saw this on youtube. He talked about an idea of People, Planet and Profit and gave example of LED bulb how it saved people from electricity charges, how it helped planet and profit for organizations too.

He was too vocal and supporter of 'vocal for local'. He is determined to make this success. He urged indian industries too to support local and sourcing from people.

I think Atma Nirbhar Bharat is going to be a turning point of Indian economy and a lesson for the whole world. We all should support Atma Nirbhar Bharat campaign. It can bring India our of poverty.

 

[ezsasa]

I saw this on youtube. He talked about an idea of People, Planet and Profit and gave example of LED bulb how it saved people from electricity charges, how it helped planet and profit for organizations too.

He was too vocal and supporter of 'vocal for local'. He is determined to make this success. He urged indian industries too to support local and sourcing from people.

I think Atma Nirbhar Bharat is going to be a turning point of Indian economy and a lesson for the whole world. We all should support Atma Nirbhar Bharat campaign.

slogans ain’t gonna change anything, problem statement is elsewhere and it is within the private sector.

there is a critical piece missing in the conversation, that is the link between academia & manufacturing sector.

Unless the Lala companies see the future value of creating their own IP & products, there won’t be any fundamental change.

 

[yoggs]

slogans ain’t gonna change anything, problem statement is elsewhere and it is within the private sector.

there is a critical piece missing in the conversation, that is the link between academia & manufacturing sector.

Unless the Lala companies see the future value of creating their own IP & products, there won’t be any fundamental change.

Innovation can be left to the individual companies if they want to do or not. It's survival of the fittest. In any case Local should be and is going to be part of the value chain. So it will change.

Atma Nirbhar Bharat just dosent need a change at industry level but with us at individual level too. We have to start somewhere unless we decide to remain pessimist.

 

[ezsasa]

Innovation can be left to the individual companies if they want to do or not. It's survival of the fittest. In any case Local should be and is going to be part of the value chain. So it will change.

Atma Nirbhar Bharat just dosent need a change at industry level but with us at individual level too. We have to start somewhere unless we decide to remain pessimist.

my issue is with innovation, ok with rest of our points.

I’ll give you an example, I had seen regenerative braking technology developed by an indian company 2006-7.

it came into market in around 2018-19.

 

[Abhijeet Dey]

India's forex reserves cross $500 billion-mark

India's forex reserves cross $500 billion-mark

At the current level, India has enough reserves to cover imports for over a year.

www.moneycontrol.com

 

[Abhijeet Dey]

Rising Forex Reserves A Morale Booster; Should Be Used Wisely, Says Anand Mahindra

Rising Forex Reserves A Morale Booster; Should Be Used Wisely, Says Anand Mahindra

India's foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach the $500 billion mark in the coming weeks, as the flow of foreign funds increases, despite the coronavirus pandemic. Commenting on the rising forex reserves, Mahindra Group Chairman, Anand Mahindra, has now said that this is a morale...

www.carandbike.com

 

[Craigs]

Rising Forex Reserves A Morale Booster; Should Be Used Wisely, Says Anand Mahindra

Rising Forex Reserves A Morale Booster; Should Be Used Wisely, Says Anand Mahindra

India's foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach the $500 billion mark in the coming weeks, as the flow of foreign funds increases, despite the coronavirus pandemic. Commenting on the rising forex reserves, Mahindra Group Chairman, Anand Mahindra, has now said that this is a morale...

www.carandbike.com

What he means to say is that Indian Govt should give it to license raj champions like him.

 

[Gautam Sarkar]

Chinese solar equipment imports, 90% share in Indian market, will plummet in 3-5 years, leading industrialist Gautam Adani said after winning a major tender to set up 8GW of manufacturing-linked solar with an investment of Rs 45,000 cr.


Jio fundraising juggernaut rolls on. Nearing ~$13B now.


Madhya Pradesh takes over Punjab in wheat procurement for rabi season 2020-21. MP procured 127L tonne or 33% of the total wheat in India. Over 14.19L farmers got DCT of ₹20,253 crores to their accounts by the state government in an average of seven days


CAIT to launch campaign to boycott Chinese goods. But also each industry and sector should make list of things required for manufacturing ( inputs ,raw materials white capital goods)
without defining which it won't be possible to achieve self reliance


The great inflation conundrum that the Indian economy faces

It’s intriguing that inflation is sticky despite a recession but its explanation lies in figuring out if the economy is facing a supply shock or a demand shock -