Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[ezsasa]

Just a thought..
==========
I think we can tide over the upcoming global economic downturn by crowdsourcing ideas for manufacturing what people need/want.

Ficci with collaboration with Govt can announce a online competition of sorts where people can give ideas on products that want to see in their daily lives.

Everyone can give their ideas, manufacturers can judge the demand for a particular type of product and manufacture them if they wish to.

Some sort of reward mechanism can be arranged for best ideas.

Hopefully the outcome will be that loss in exports are compensated with local consumption.

All this is make in India, of course.

Feel free to share this idea, if this has to happen it has to happen in next one month so that products are ready by next fiscal.

 

[DG7867]

Just a thought..
==========
I think we can tide over the upcoming global economic downturn by crowdsourcing ideas for manufacturing what people need/want.

Ficci with collaboration with Govt can announce a online competition of sorts where people can give ideas on products that want to see in their daily lives.

Everyone can give their ideas, manufacturers can judge the demand for a particular type of product and manufacture them if they wish to.

Some sort of reward mechanism can be arranged for best ideas.

Hopefully the outcome will be that loss in exports are compensated with local consumption.

All this is make in India, of course.

Feel free to share this idea, if this has to happen it has to happen in next one month so that products are ready by next fiscal.

You could perhaps pitch this on mygov portal..

 

[ezsasa]

You could perhaps pitch this on mygov portal..

I will but influencers are the key these days. So spread the word on SM so that it also catches attention.

 

[sorcerer]

World's biggest sovereign wealth fund increases its bets on India


Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world, has increased its bets on India by 27.2 per cent to $9.4 billion. This is the highest since 2005. The number of equity investments has also risen.


https://www.business-standard.com/a...creases-its-bets-on-india-120022900042_1.html

 

[sorcerer]

Survey of India to establish nationwide CORS network

GNSS technology has transformed how surveying is done. However, its use in survey applications is limited because of inherent errors associated with the GPS signals. Continuously Operating Reference System (CORS) is an infrastructure that can solve the problem of accuracy and real-time data acquisition. Looking at the importance and usefulness of the technology, the Survey of India has started an initiative of establishing nationwide CORS network.

CORS is a geopositioning infrastructure that provides seamless consistent and uniform framework of the country. It offers highly accurate DGPS service that also improves the speed, efficiency, and simplicity of in-house data-acquisition process. CORS network also act as a driver for reliable data collection by ‘authorized-crowd-sourcing’. CORS takes the overall productivity to the next level by overcoming the limitations of the current RTK technique.

Dr Harsh Vardhan also launched Hindi and Sanskrit map of India produced by Survey of India.

https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/survey-of-india-to-establish-nationwide-cors-network/

ye wala news main stream media mein kabhee nahi ayega..
ch00tiy@ log hai MSM

 

[Haldiram]

World's biggest sovereign wealth fund increases its bets on India


Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world, has increased its bets on India by 27.2 per cent to $9.4 billion. This is the highest since 2005. The number of equity investments has also risen.


https://www.business-standard.com/a...creases-its-bets-on-india-120022900042_1.html

Been tracking these pension funds since a while now. These Nibbers silently buy into every dip in our markets when domestic investors are busy applying Burnol to their butts.

https://defenceforumindia.com/forum...-news-and-discussion.64/page-287#post-1567744

 

[sorcerer]

India-Bhutan rail link: Railway Board commissions survey to lay Mujnai-Nyoenpaling line

https://www.cnbctv18.com/infrastruc...ey-to-lay-mujnai-nyoenpaling-line-5396411.htm


janam...dekh lo...mitgayee dooriyannnn..

yuck Sharukh song

 

[varun9509]

....................................

 

[Prashant12]

February GST collection crosses Rs 1 lakh crore mark for the fourth consecutive month


Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[Haldiram]

Bhai recession might be at the corner. Things are real bad in London. JP Morgan might start pulling money in.

It's a matter of time frame. -12% in 4 days seems like a lot of the time frame is just 4 days. On a 10 year time frame, we have seen bigger falls than this. We've had almost 5 falls of the magnitude of 30-40% even after 2008.

On a 50 year trend, we are still in the upswing.

View attachment 43733

Even in 2008-09 we had a similar situation. Global economic slowdown, Lehman crisis in the US, 26/11 terror attack on Taj Hotel, swine flu. Basically the world was set to end so everyone panicked and sold. After that it has given double digit CAGR for 10 years in rupee terms and barely 2% CAGR in dollar terms.

We are hardly at the peak. Nitfy at 6700 was the aggregate level for the 7 year period of 2007 to 2015. Touching 12000 in the next 5 years is a mere doubling, and not some massive multibagger bull run. For context, Nifty had gone from 900 to 6000 from 2003 to 2007. 6X in 4 years. That was the reason for the massive correction in 2008.

Besides, the market had ample time and opportunity to collapse in the last 2 years of barrage of bad news. Everything from global economic slowdown, US-China trade war, DeMo, GST, Indian GDP touching lows of 3%, Corona virus and whatnot, it's already in the price. Everything was known to everyone, and everyone had (and still has) the opportunity to exit at a -2% kind of minor scratch on their portfolio. This is not how bear markets start. They start with a -25% fall in a single day trapping everyone permanently. The reason for the crash is only revealed AFTER the crash (like Lehman, and most recently ILFS). If the reason for a crash is known beforehand, it's more often than not manufactured negative sentiment to engineer a sell off.

Like that Panchatantra tale of the hat seller who used to drop his own hat to get the monkeys to drop theirs and then take all their hats, the big fish are dumping their own stocks in a bid to get the retail investors to panic and dump theirs. They will accumulate everything at discounted rates and the market will zoom after retail investors have emptied their trading accounts. Literally everyone and their kitten was pre-warned that this crash was coming. Whatever happened this week was done to confirm that bias.

Follow up on this.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/sensex-nifty-live-today-2020-03-02/liveblog/74433059.cms

What happened now? Corona issue resolved over the weekend?

 

[Haldiram]

Like that Panchatantra tale of the hat seller who used to drop his own hat to get the monkeys to drop theirs and then take all their hats, the big fish are dumping their own stocks in a bid to get the retail investors to panic and dump theirs. They will accumulate everything at discounted rates and the market will zoom after retail investors have emptied their trading accounts. Literally everyone and their kitten was pre-warned that this crash was coming. Whatever happened this week was done to confirm that bias.

DIIs inflows hit six-month high in February amid decline in Sensex

Moral of the story : Smart money pumped in the largest amount of money at the lowest point of the market and retail investors were busy selling their stocks to big players at the lowest point and cashing out at a loss.

Baki sabh kushal mangal.

 

[Haldiram]

DIIs inflows hit six-month high in February amid decline in Sensex

View attachment 43877

Moral of the story : Smart money pumped in the largest amount of money at the lowest point of the market and retail investors were busy selling their stocks to big players at the lowest point and cashing out at a loss.

Baki sabh kushal mangal.

1 case of Corona was found so everyone in India sold their stocks as a mark of respect to that 1 person. #Bhaichara

Indian media's high quality analysis continues.

 

[Haldiram]

Friday : Corona
Weekend : No Corona
Monday : Corona
Tuesday : No Corona
Wednesday : Again Corona

Clearly, Corona is following an even and odd pattern.

Try not to step out of the house on even days. Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday is fine.

 

[ezsasa]

View attachment 43902

Friday : Corona
Weekend : No Corona
Monday : Corona
Tuesday : No Corona
Wednesday : Again Corona

Clearly, Corona is following an even and odd pattern.

Try not to step out of the house on even days. Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday is fine.

Yesterday, DOW Jones went up 1300 points....
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-rose-fed-covid-19-fears-51583187366

 

[Haldiram]

Yesterday, DOW Jones went up 1300 points....
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-rose-fed-covid-19-fears-51583187366

Me had said last week itself, bluff correction hai, par gareeb aadmi ki baat kaun sunta hai.

Dis is what a bluff looks like :

It went down to create a panic, people took the bait and sold their stocks. Then it went down again just to confirm the panic and get any remaining optimists out of the market. Once all the retail sheep had offloaded their stocks, the market zoomed.

Smart money had made bluff Put Options just to convince people that it is going down big time, while they were themselves net Long. Smart money took -2% loss on their Put Options initially and regained 5% in the cash segment 2 days later. That's why they are called Smart money.

@Hiranyaksha Portfolio recovered?

 

[Hiranyaksha]

Me had said last week itself, bluff correction hai, par gareeb aadmi ki baat kaun sunta hai.

Dis is what a bluff looks like :

View attachment 43905

It went down to create a panic, people took the bait and sold their stocks. Then it went down again just to confirm the panic and get any remaining optimists out of the market. Once all the retail sheep had offloaded their stocks, the market zoomed.

Smart money had made bluff Put Options just to convince people that it is going down big time, while they were themselves net Long. Smart money took -2% loss on their Put Options initially and regained 5% in the cash segment 2 days later. That's why they are called Smart money.


View attachment 43903

View attachment 43904

@Hiranyaksha Portfolio recovered?

Yes most.of them recovered. But I so wish that my fund manager had more balls than you.
Chutiya and his bank went bollocks the moment VIX touched 40-45.
Even yesterday before market was about to open I asked his advice to buy MSFT, apple and Alibaba. He was like have you studied MSFT .. and advised me not to invest in it. And when market closed I saw that MSFT and Apple was at top again.

I asked him 15 days back that I want to include stuff like Put options, Inverse ETFs, Volatility ETFs, and Volatility call options in my portfolio. Idiot even then laughed it off. I would have made shit tonne of money in this crash but because of the idiot I end up losing a bit.

 

[Haldiram]

Yes most.of them recovered. But I so wish that my fund manager had more balls than you.
Chutiya and his bank went bollocks the moment VIX touched 40-45.
Even yesterday before market was about to open I asked his advice to buy MSFT, apple and Alibaba. He was like have you studied MSFT .. and advised me not to invest in it. And when market closed I saw that MSFT and Apple was at top again.

I asked him 15 days back that I want to include stuff like Put options, Inverse ETFs, Volatility ETFs, and Volatility call options in my portfolio. Idiot even then laughed it off. I would have made shit tonne of money in this crash but because of the idiot I end up losing a bit.

Why not manage the fund yourself? I systematically migrated from managed funds to a self-managed equity portfolio over the last 3 years. I was paying a few lakh rupees on the fund management fees annually. Getting 1.5% in dividends and paying 1.5% to a fund manager is like nullifying the dividend gains. With the management costs gone, even if the market slides -2%, it's like scraping off the dividends but the portfolio remains intact without having to hedge it with Puts.

RE : Fund management costs :

Spoiler

On an average, fund managers spend 2-3% of the portfolio value on hedging annually. Most of the times the premium decays with no gains, but one has a feeling that they ringfenced their investment, but in retrospect, spending 3% on hedging and paying 1.5% to the fund manager + another 1% lost in buy-sell churns takes away all the potential gains. I would rather take a one time -20% loss in a stock than keep spending 2% every year for 10 years to avoid one fateful Black Swan event.

95% of my folio is green since it is 8+ years of accumulation. Most of my old picks are in triple digit green %. The only new additions I made were 2 small positions in dark horse companies as a contrarian bet on Bengal (Bandhan Bank) and Kerala (Wonderla), both of them have taken a beating due to CAA protests and later Corona virus hurting the tourism business of Wonderla, which is an acceptable amount of risk for me on an overall portfolio basis.

Actively averaging this one.

Don't have to worry about tinkering with the remaining stocks. All of them are yielding around 9-10% annual passive income from dividends relative to their initial buying price. Can take a -20% hit on the whole portfolio and still not sell. A -20% price drop is like notionally losing 2 years of free income from dividends, but the principal has already 4X-ed so there's a natural hedge from its base intrinsic value. No need for any fancy gymnastics like derivatives and/or gold/crypto for hedging.

I've been accumulating the dividends from equity in a liquid fund for 5 years. At every double digit fall, I simply move their own dividends from the liquid fund to buy more of the same company at dips. Did it last in 2016 when the markit fell after surgical strikes, then repeated it in 2018, and doing it this week.

RE : Using derivatives for hedging

Spoiler

An equity market crash only depletes my Bond holding on an immediate basis. The Bond asset allocation is taking care of the hedging and even that Bond holding gets replenished with successive years of equity dividends. Using equity derivatives to hedge an equity portfolio is taking compounded risk on risk. In a high VIX environment, the volatility will hit the stoploss on both sides and take away your shield leaving one in an exposed situation like Karna.

 

[captscooby81]

PMI of February stays slightly lower at 54.5 vs 55.3 in January still way better than 1 year ago

 

[captscooby81]

Mudra loans disbursement also picked up

 

[captscooby81]

IBC looks better option as creditors recovered 1.6 lakh crore's