Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[DG7867]

India’s Electricity Demand Registers Surge Of 7.5 Per Cent Over The First 18 Days Of February

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/india...5-per-cent-over-the-first-18-days-of-february

by Swarajya Staff Feb 23 2020, 1:19 pm,
In a major uptick for the power sector, the electricity demand in the nation has registered a growth of 7.5 per cent over the first 18 days of February, bringing big relief to stressed thermal power electricity generators which are now operating at higher capacities, reports Economic Times.

The generation of power from thermal and hydro projects has surged in the ongoing month by 7.3 per cent, while the same figure for renewable energy generators has surged by 5.3 per cent.

The latest uptick in the demand for electricity follows from the 3.7 per cent growth registered in the bygone month of January prior to which the electricity demand at the national level had registered a decline for continuous five months.

In the ongoing month, the peak hour demand for electricity has been observed to be as much as 15-20 gigawatt (GW) higher than the demand registered in the same period last year as per the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

 

[sorcerer]

America replaces China as India’s top trading partner - Times of India


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...-top-trading-partner/articleshow/74276137.cms

 

[Haldiram]

Indian anal-yeasts : Corona virus was solved on Friday but came back on Monday.

 

[Haldiram]

Meanwhile their markit be like...

 

[Hiranyaksha]

Meanwhile their markit be like...


View attachment 43594

What do you think about near term market stance ?
Should we buy more ?

 

[Haldiram]

What do you think about near term market stance ?
Should we buy more ?

There's good value emerging in Nifty levels of 11200 to 11700. 11.2k seems very unlikely though. It will see a sharp bounce back before it hits 11600 levels because people are waiting with cash to buy in those zones. It might recover yesterday's buff move today itself.

 

[Haldiram]

What do you think about near term market stance ?
Should we buy more ?

Overall, the markit absorbs all the bad news. It takes 1-2 months for it to get back to normal but in all the outbreaks, it has fallen between -7% to -12% and recovered more than lost ground by the end of the year.

Won't say the same about Dow which seems to be in bubble zone, but Indian markets are very attractively priced at Nifty levels of 11200 to 11500. Post the corporate tax cut, the intrinsic value of the Nifty itself was bumped to 10800. 11.3k to 11.5k is just 5% above intrinsic. Very good value emerging. If more panic sets in and it falls below 10800, then it will be a text book case of buy aggressively when others are fearful.

At current rates, respective segment leaders like Colgate, Marico, Page Industries are yielding around 1.7% in dividends itself. A normal bank savings account gives between 2.point something % to 3.something % after TDS tax deduction with no increment in yields over time. Compared to that, getting 1.7% dividend now, from these companies which are growing at 20% will make the dividend yield from these companies roughly 8%-11% a decade from now. Stock price inflate hoga so alag. But even a stock-price agnostic, dividend-based thesis puts their current valuations at very attractive zones.

For someone who never wants to sell, dividends are a barometer for how much one is paying and what one is getting in return. PE is useless. Getting 8-11% passive dividend income from your principal investment in a decade, and 20-25% in 2 decades seems like a good ROI at current rates, compared to locking it up for a 7% return from an FD. Forget about the stock price cycle which is arbitrarily based on greed-and-fear. In fact, make use of the fear as the markit inches closer and closer towards its deep value.

 

[sorcerer]

businesstoday.in
India has the third highest number of billionaires in the world: Hurun Global Rich List
3 minutes
With 31 new Indians on the list, India comes third after China and USA on Hurun's Global Rich List 2018. However, China with 819 names and USA with 571 are way ahead in terms of number of billionaires. China, has catapulted in the competition, leaving its competitor USA far behind. Last year the numbers were neck-to-neck at 534 and 535 billionaires respectively.

Rupert Hoogerwerf, Chief Researcher and Chairman of Hurun Report said that this has been a period of great entrepreneurship in China, while it has been good for India as well. India added these 31 billionaires in the past year due to a record performance by Indian stock markets.

The Hurun Rich List 2018 ranked 2,694 billionaires from 68 countries and 2,157 companies. The total wealth of these billionaires increased by 31% to USD 10.5 trillion - that is 13.2% of the global GDP.

Although Mukesh Ambani remains the richest Indian, one of the Indians to see a massive growth in wealth is Gautam Adani whose wealth doubled and grew by 109% to USD 14 billion. Ambani's wealth soared by 73% to USD 45 billion. Adani is in the 98th spot, while Ambani is ranked 19th.

Three of the youngest billionaires in India are Shradha Agarwal, 32, of Outcome Wealth, Divyank Turakhia, 35, of Directi and Vijay Shekhar Sharma, 39, of Paytm.

The report mentioned that the most number of billionaires - 19 - in India were produced by the pharmaceuticals sector, followed by automobiles with 14 and consumer products with 11.

The total number of Indians on that list is 131, but if Indian-origins are considered then the tally would move up to 170.

Lakshmi Mittal, with USD 18 million is the second-richest Indian on the list. The Godrej Group has added 5 billionaires to the list, while Hero Honda and Asian Paints have added three each.

The richest person in the world is Jeff Bezos of Amazon, with USD 123 billion, followed by Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway with USD 102 billion, Bill Gates of Microsoft with USD 90 billion, Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook with USD 79 billion, Bernard Arnault of LVMH with USD 78 billion, Amancio Ortega of Inditex with USD 73 billion, Carlos Slim Helu and family of America Movil with USD 67 billion, Larry Ellison of Oracle with USD 54 billion, Larry Page of Google with USD 50 billion and Michael Bloomberg of Bloomberg with USD 49 billion.

The report also stated that more than one billionaire was created every day last year, out of which 4 per week were from China.


https://www.businesstoday.in/curren...orld-hurun-global-rich-list/story/271746.html

Dont drink too much commie cola and liberandoo kool-aid..you will lose confidence in this nation and yourself and fail to seize the economic opportunity it provides !
The nations economy has potential to churn 3 billionaires a month!
If you can sustain the fire in you..you will be one among them rich .. or if you cant..you can be the self loathing..self hating retard liberandu or commie jealous of everyone elses success

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Rajesh Exports?
..............................................

Yes....................................................

 

[Haldiram]

There's good value emerging in Nifty levels of 11200 to 11700. 11.2k seems very unlikely though. It will see a sharp bounce back before it hits 11600 levels because people are waiting with cash to buy in those zones. It might recover yesterday's buff move today itself.

Follow up on ^marked in red^

Made a bluff move towards 11550 during intraday but bounced back from 11600 after lunch time.

Under no circumstances they would have allowed it to close below 11600 at day end, because smart money has positioned themselves long in the derivatives segment and the consensus view (i.e the retail sheep) are bearish in the cash segment. So em nibbas made a bluff move for retail sheep's confirmation bias, and brought it up before closing bell.

 

[Haldiram]

MARKET LIVE: Sensex extends fall, sheds 1300 pts; Rupee hits 6-month low

Baaki sabh kushal mangal hai

 

[Atcjurvin]

MARKET LIVE: Sensex extends fall, sheds 1300 pts; Rupee hits 6-month low

Baaki sabh kushal mangal hai

Hey bro why rupee value is decreasing day by day earlier it was 70 but now it is 71. Isn't it will affect our economic growth.

 

[Kumata]

Companies in India likely to dole out average 9.1% salary hike in 2020 amid hunt for key talent, niche skills: Report
https://www.firstpost.com/business/...r-key-talent-niche-skills-report-8056271.html

Bhai,

Yeh First post wale chutiya banata rehte hai... Hike in Our organisation is 1%-2 % consistently for past 3 years. I will have multiple orgasm hearing this but this is hogwash.

I am making up for inflation with huge dollar bills on personnel account duly approved by my damager... LOL

 

[sorcerer]

Bhai,

Yeh First post wale chutiya banata rehte hai... Hike in Our organisation is 1%-2 % consistently for past 3 years. I will have multiple orgasm hearing this but this is hogwash.

I am making up for inflation with huge dollar bills on personnel account duly approved by my damager... LOL

thats a report from some HR agency who does studies on such industry wide.

 

[ezsasa]

Bhai,

Yeh First post wale chutiya banata rehte hai... Hike in Our organisation is 1%-2 % consistently for past 3 years. I will have multiple orgasm hearing this but this is hogwash.

I am making up for inflation with huge dollar bills on personnel account duly approved by my damager... LOL

If your organisation is giving 1-2% hike, you are in the wrong field. It also means some other organisation in another field is giving double digit hikes, by law of averages.

 

[Hiranyaksha]

MARKET LIVE: Sensex extends fall, sheds 1300 pts; Rupee hits 6-month low

Baaki sabh kushal mangal hai

Bhai recession might be at the corner. Things are real bad in London. JP Morgan might start pulling money in.

 

[ezsasa]

Bhai recession might be at the corner. Things are real bad in London. JP Morgan might start pulling money in.

In to UK? if so what benefit does to give them, given that UK is in a much greater turmoil than the rest of the world.

 

[Haldiram]

Bhai recession might be at the corner. Things are real bad in London. JP Morgan might start pulling money in.

It's a matter of time frame. -12% in 4 days seems like a lot of the time frame is just 4 days. On a 10 year time frame, we have seen bigger falls than this. We've had almost 5 falls of the magnitude of 30-40% even after 2008.

On a 50 year trend, we are still in the upswing.

Even in 2008-09 we had a similar situation. Global economic slowdown, Lehman crisis in the US, 26/11 terror attack on Taj Hotel, swine flu. Basically the world was set to end so everyone panicked and sold. After that it has given double digit CAGR for 10 years in rupee terms and barely 2% CAGR in dollar terms.

We are hardly at the peak. Nitfy at 6700 was the aggregate level for the 7 year period of 2007 to 2015. Touching 12000 in the next 5 years is a mere doubling, and not some massive multibagger bull run. For context, Nifty had gone from 900 to 6000 from 2003 to 2007. 6X in 4 years. That was the reason for the massive correction in 2008.

Besides, the market had ample time and opportunity to collapse in the last 2 years of barrage of bad news. Everything from global economic slowdown, US-China trade war, DeMo, GST, Indian GDP touching lows of 3%, Corona virus and whatnot, it's already in the price. Everything was known to everyone, and everyone had (and still has) the opportunity to exit at a -2% kind of minor scratch on their portfolio. This is not how bear markets start. They start with a -25% fall in a single day trapping everyone permanently. The reason for the crash is only revealed AFTER the crash (like Lehman, and most recently ILFS). If the reason for a crash is known beforehand, it's more often than not manufactured negative sentiment to engineer a sell off.

Like that Panchatantra tale of the hat seller who used to drop his own hat to get the monkeys to drop theirs and then take all their hats, the big fish are dumping their own stocks in a bid to get the retail investors to panic and dump theirs. They will accumulate everything at discounted rates and the market will zoom after retail investors have emptied their trading accounts. Literally everyone and their kitten was pre-warned that this crash was coming. Whatever happened this week was done to confirm that bias.

 

[ForigenSanghi]

I made the below post 10 days back highlighting the dark clouds hanging over world markets. As I predicted the CCP lies are now exposed and markets are in a tumble.

Since then...
Nifty has fallen for 6 out of 7 days it was open.
Sensex has lost nearly 4000 points around 10%.
S&P 500 is down about 13%.
DAX, CAC and FTSE are all down 10%.
Gold had rallied 2500 rupees in two days.

I had got 11600 puts on the same day (trying not to be too greedy) but as it turns out 11000 put would have been a lot better value.
This would have been a proper killing if I could use all my margins but unfortunately my margin is tied down on Gold Futures.

This is not over yet. The worse thing is that we don't even know how much impact this has till the March-end quarter results are announced.

My guess is GDP growth is going down to under 4% and if govt. doesn't do much inflation will rise up to 6-7%. This will bring back the grim memories of mms rule. Modiji has his work cutout if he wants to sustain his govt and win Bihar / Bengal and UP in 2022.

Nifty was trading at 28 PE last month, its now down to 26 but it can easily go down to 22 as well if things don't improve soon.

PS: not advising anything to anyone.

On another note, my friend tells me that quite a few of his American clients are considering in country operations for printing their labels in future rather than depend on Indian packaging prints using Chinese inks.

​

But India Imports a lot of stuff most of which is used in Indian industry.

My friend who runs a printing business (supplying primarily to USA and EU) is having to scale down production to 50% for the month of March and he will have to fully shut down operation if his supplies don't arrive by mid-April from Guangzhou.

There are no other supply chains either. He buys from a German company that has manufacturing only in China. So he thought he would contact the American rival of his supplier... guess what, the American rival gets his products made in the same factory in China as well.

Another friend who exports sports equipment to EU from Bhatinda was telling me that he imports packaging polymers from China and he would have to invest in new packaging unit if Chinese supply does not come back to normal.

Just because there is no obvious link in primary exports does not mean that India will be safe from the coronavirus related slow down.

Even if 50% of the $70bn import from China is industrial inputs... that $35bn could have an impact on up to $100bn of India's exports to other countries.

Understanding of the secondary impact is extremely important in this interconnected world. The CCP is lying right now and that is preventing a freefall in the markets as of now. If the true numbers come out then there will be carnage in Indian market. My bet is that smart money is rushing into gold right now.

 

[varun9509]

India GDP Growth At 4.7% In Q3, Weaker Than Revised Estimates For Q2

https://www.bloombergquint.com/busi...47-in-q3-weaker-than-revised-estimates-for-q2