Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Kumata]

by the way in case folks haven't realised this yet, irrespective of whether individuals acknowledge it or not, history has already been written.

ten twenty thirty years from now when neutral economic and policy experts go back and try to build a timeline of when exactly the structural changes in Indian economy started and how did Indian economy survive three major global shocks in short period of time i.e chini virus, ukraine war, israel war, all ministries who contributed including your tai will make the list. their respective ministry policy decisions along with their public speeches will buttress their case.

There is a old saying... "No body dies Virgin" . Not denying your statement but same time conditions were too favorable as well and Lies as well ( oil bonds , lowest oil prices, ) and people like us have kept the consumption flag high so that factoring keep churning more and more... On top. infra spending have helped.. which is all debt driven.. Offcourse tai will not pay but we and out next will pay...

Our growth is driven by urban consumption..while rural stress is still there.. I would be happy if it is driven by exports ..

 

[Crazywithmath]

She is saying the growth is overstated

https://x.com/dugalira/status/1763416606862950858?s=20

FY 2021-22 was even crazier; in Q4 FY 2020-21, GVA growth was higher than GDP growth. How many people noticed? Q3 FY 2022-23 real growth was pegged at 4.6%. Did anyone care?



This is the great Murica, for instance;

U.S. Economic Data Aren't Adding Up

Either corporate profits are being grossly overstated, the trade deficit is much narrower than implied by customs data, or business investment is being severely undercounted.

theovershoot.co

 

[Crazywithmath]

She is saying the growth is overstated

https://x.com/dugalira/status/1763416606862950858?s=20

Our deflators are messy and hence, there are periods of overestimation and underestimation. It has always been the case. Even before this govt assumed power. Ira Duggal does not have agenda - she will publish whatever she deems fit. But there are seasoned agenda peddlers who paint all doom and gloom if growth is modest but never miss an opportunity to pen long columns and working papers claiming potential overestimation if numbers exceed expectations.



Incidentally, those working papers do not get peer reviewed and never make it to a reputed journal. I wonder why....

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Q3 GDP numbers are out. It surpasses all expectations and predictions.

India’s GDP grows at 8.4% in October-December quarter; 2023-24 growth scaled up to 7.6% from 7.3%

India’s GDP growth upgraded to 8.4% in Q3 of 2023-24, with NSO estimating 7.6% growth for the year.

www.thehindu.com

 

[ezsasa]

There is a old saying... "No body dies Virgin" . Not denying your statement but same time conditions were too favorable as well and Lies as well ( oil bonds , lowest oil prices, ) and people like us have kept the consumption flag high so that factoring keep churning more and more... On top. infra spending have helped.. which is all debt driven.. Offcourse tai will not pay but we and out next will pay...

Our growth is driven by urban consumption..while rural stress is still there.. I would be happy if it is driven by exports ..

in case any one interested to know about oil bonds, outstanding started at 1.34 lakh crores which is now at 36.9 thousand crore. oil bonds issued in 2009 repayment started in FY 2015.

from 2014-15 budget document

from 2024-25 budget document

 

[HariPrasad-1]

GVA is 6.5% but gdp growth is 8.4. GDP is GVA+tax-subsidy which means taxes have skyrocketed in the Q3!!

No GST is changed in the last quarter. It is same as it was a quarter and a year back. Infact, there is a little change in GST slab since they were made applicable. Whatever little changes have happened, mostly they were the reduction in duty slab. How the hike in GDP has come from additional tax burden?

 

[HariPrasad-1]

in case any one interested to know about oil bonds, outstanding started at 1.34 lakh crores which is now at 36.9 thousand crore. oil bonds issued in 2009 repayment started in FY 2015.

from 2014-15 budget document

View attachment 242393

from 2024-25 budget document

View attachment 242394

1.34 Lakh is a peanut against the additional excise duty collected post GST regime. Excise duty which happened to be about Rs 4 per liter on diesel and Rs 9 per liter on Petrol, which was increased to Rs 19 per liter. I do not say that it was wrong but the excuses given totally wrong that Petroleum price increased due to those 1.34 lakh crore bond. Government has collected many fold higher tax compared to that bond amount.

 

[Kumata]

1.34 Lakh is a peanut against the additional excise duty collected post GST regime. Excise duty which happened to be about Rs 4 per liter on diesel and Rs 9 per liter on Petrol, which was increased to Rs 19 per liter. I do not say that it was wrong but the excuses given totally wrong that Petroleum price increased due to those 1.34 lakh crore bond. Government has collected many fold higher tax compared to that bond amount.

Thank you .. Just to add.. she was blessed with historically lowest crude prices also during her regime.. Come what may .. Excise was increased / Decreased or tweaked in such manner that petrol was always above 94 / 95 mark so collection was never dull. On top, they carefully moved everything into 12 % or 18% GST mark.. Have she done a single reform for those who voted them barring that "TAX PAYER CHARTER" & " THANK YOU TAX PAYERS" in each budget...NIL...

yeah, they have paid back double to their masters, with lower corporate taxes et all.... and various failed PLI Schemes...

Have she done anything extra ordinary.. nope.. she got all on platter helped by kaka wave who we all trust with closed eyes.. so when kaka said buy locally we bought in hordes pushing GST to north month O month.. As a FM she is hardly known......I would still rate MMS + PNVR high on everyone else since 1947 for what they did and the direction they took us into..

 

[ezsasa]

1.34 Lakh is a peanut against the additional excise duty collected post GST regime. Excise duty which happened to be about Rs 4 per liter on diesel and Rs 9 per liter on Petrol, which was increased to Rs 19 per liter. I do not say that it was wrong but the excuses given totally wrong that Petroleum price increased due to those 1.34 lakh crore bond. Government has collected many fold higher tax compared to that bond amount.

this has been discussed to death since 2016, the current govt tried explaining many times, the media at that time was on congress bachao campaign, didn't let the govt's response filter thru without media's spin, now a days the current govt is not even trying to explain, they are simply saying we need the tax money to build xyz. they seem to have realised, no matter how much they try to explain, their messaging is always prone to misinterpretation in media and SM for most part.

 

[ezsasa]

Blume’s Indus Valley Report is out! Some interesting first take aways:

- Just 1.5% (22m) of Indians pay income tax
- Necessities dominate consumption
- Consuming class = 30 m households
- Growing consuming class likes premium products
- Apple India sales set to overtake HUL sales in FY24E
- As incomes rise, stock markets have become the favourite destination
-IPO market in 2023 was 2nd highest in 12 years

Why is the RBI worried?
- Most personal loans are small ticket and via NBFCs
- Retail is now the largest segment of credit but has poor quality borrowers
- At 258 m india is reaching limit of the addressable credit market

Human capital
- India is the largest exporter of human capital in the world
- Has the 2nd highest diaspora in US
- Software services most influential export after people
- And now India stack - digital public infra is getting exported

Startup Funding
- India VC market is now 25% of what it was in 2021, VC funding is below 2017 levels
- Seed funding halved, early, late stage down 2/3rds
- Unicorn spotting has lowered, IPO count has gone up - 2 unicorns in 2023 vs 8 IPOs

On consumer brands
- Share of digital native brands goes up, 2nd most funded in 2023
- Consumer cos are now taking notes from these Digital Native Brands (DNB)
- Quick commerce a key channel for DNBs
-a new kind of ‘Smart appliances’ reach homes

Deeptech
- Govt bears the burden of research and innovation in India
- VC ecosystem has stepped up gas to push deeptech
-Space tech most funded in deeptech
- India spent 0.039% of GDP on space vs 0.278% by US

 

[Kumata]

Blume’s Indus Valley Report is out! Some interesting first take aways:

- Just 1.5% (22m) of Indians pay income tax
- Necessities dominate consumption
- Consuming class = 30 m households
- Growing consuming class likes premium products
- Apple India sales set to overtake HUL sales in FY24E
- As incomes rise, stock markets have become the favourite destination
-IPO market in 2023 was 2nd highest in 12 years

Why is the RBI worried?
- Most personal loans are small ticket and via NBFCs
- Retail is now the largest segment of credit but has poor quality borrowers
- At 258 m india is reaching limit of the addressable credit market

Human capital
- India is the largest exporter of human capital in the world
- Has the 2nd highest diaspora in US
- Software services most influential export after people
- And now India stack - digital public infra is getting exported

Startup Funding
- India VC market is now 25% of what it was in 2021, VC funding is below 2017 levels
- Seed funding halved, early, late stage down 2/3rds
- Unicorn spotting has lowered, IPO count has gone up - 2 unicorns in 2023 vs 8 IPOs

On consumer brands
- Share of digital native brands goes up, 2nd most funded in 2023
- Consumer cos are now taking notes from these Digital Native Brands (DNB)
- Quick commerce a key channel for DNBs
-a new kind of ‘Smart appliances’ reach homes

Deeptech
- Govt bears the burden of research and innovation in India
- VC ecosystem has stepped up gas to push deeptech
-Space tech most funded in deeptech
- India spent 0.039% of GDP on space vs 0.278% by US

I am of opinion that Average household savings have reduced a lot which is not good in a country like us with zero social security . Not sure where to get the data but i am hoping i am not correct...

So this growth is all internal consumption driven by select few... govt is milking just 1.5% twice while rest gets milked once ... No doubt We feel short charged...

And this NBFC thing.. it's already under lots of stress.... ultimately, you and me will pay for saving these NBFC

 

[FalconSlayers]

GDP growth could be around 8.2% this year.

GDP growth in FY24 likely to be within striking distance of 8%: SBI report

India's GDP growth for the current financial year is expected to be close to 8%, as per SBI's research report 'Ecowrap'. The economy grew 8.4% in the December quarter, surpassing expectations. The government's efforts for direct benefit transfer have resulted in the per capita GDP reaching Rs 2...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

India is gunning for several parts of the Semicon value chain simultaneously

 

[ezsasa]

I am of opinion that Average household savings have reduced a lot which is not good in a country like us with zero social security . Not sure where to get the data but i am hoping i am not correct...

So this growth is all internal consumption driven by select few... govt is milking just 1.5% twice while rest gets milked once ... No doubt We feel short charged...

And this NBFC thing.. it's already under lots of stress.... ultimately, you and me will pay for saving these NBFC

our conversation pattern usually goes like this...

- you will say some random presumption, almost always on the down side
- i get into data mode and try to disprove you, because in early years our convos used to would revolve around hypotheticals and never ending shifting goals posts.
- you take pot shots on your favourite XYZ
- after a little more to and fro, you bring in some nana chacha personal anecdote which no one can disprove
- i come to the realisation, that this time too it was not a economy related convo, it was a political convo.
- i leave you alone..

 

[Arjun Mk1A]

View attachment 242435
View attachment 242436
India is gunning for several parts of the Semicon value chain simultaneously

Hope they refurbish the SCL facility to manufacture 28nm and 65nm wafers.

 

[Kumata]

our conversation pattern usually goes like this...

- you will say some random presumption, almost always on the down side
- i get into data mode and try to disprove you, because in early years our convos used to would revolve around hypotheticals and never ending shifting goals posts.
- you take pot shots on your favourite XYZ
- after a little more to and fro, you bring in some nana chacha personal anecdote which no one can disprove
- i come to the realisation, that this time too it was not a economy related convo, it was a political convo.
- i leave you alone..

I am actually looking for point no 2 here on house hold savings for last 10 years

Problem is you data is always more or less manipulated .. while i always look for independent sources..Have u ever seen a criminal saying he committed a crime ..rest it ;s all politics and muscle power...

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

Hope they refurbish the SCL facility to manufacture 28nm and 65nm wafers.

We should have never stopped work in Mohali, but never were serious in manufacturing. Finally now we may be seeing an inflection point towards manufacturing !!

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

 

[NutCracker]

our conversation pattern usually goes like this...

- you will say some random presumption, almost always on the down side
- i get into data mode and try to disprove you, because in early years our convos used to would revolve around hypotheticals and never ending shifting goals posts.
- you take pot shots on your favourite XYZ
- after a little more to and fro, you bring in some nana chacha personal anecdote which no one can disprove
- i come to the realisation, that this time too it was not a economy related convo, it was a political convo.
- i leave you alone..

"According to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country's household financial savings rate hit a 47-year low of 5.1% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year that ended in March."

Fy20-21 11%
Fy21-22 7.2%
Fy22-23 5.1%

India cannot afford to let its savings rate keep slipping

Economy in need of more funds to support investment

asia.nikkei.com

 

[another_armchair]

I am actually looking for point no 2 here on house hold savings for last 10 years

Problem is you data is always more or less manipulated .. while i always look for independent sources..Have u ever seen a criminal saying he committed a crime ..rest it ;s all politics and muscle power...

Savings have shifted from traditional instruments like Fixed Deposits to SIP, Mutual Funds, Term Insurance products etc. Market linked investments are riskier than fixed deposits but then, people believe the India growth story. About 16-17k crores are flowing into SIP every month. Markets are flush with cash and valuations are at crazy levels.

People are spending more and willing to take credit. Whether they are spending on consumer durables or on kids higher education and financing it with student loans, it will generate a cash outflow and reduced savings in the bank account.