Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Haldiram]

Why is this happening though?

30 chars

The real reason is that our markets were overvalued. The short term trigger is that people realized that overvaluation only after the US imposed trade war started showing its adverse effects.

Pre-trade war, RBI had lent money at lower interest rates to Indian corporates to ensure that corporate India does not collapse. Business was slow and the corporates were not turning in massive profits. They were barely able to break even after paying off the interest payments. Post-trade war, even the meager profits we were making sunk to all time lows, so the stock market crashed first, and the corporates couldn't pay their debts so the bonds they had issued collapsed next. Consequently, both our equity market and bond market is down.

After Market: Rs 2.22 lakh cr gone; DHFL shares crack 16%, Eros 20%

DHFL's default can expose Rs 1-trn in borrowing to risk of default: CLSA

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Biggest mistake was negligence of Agriculture sector which is still the biggest but its contribution to GDP isnt great , we need to also increase Manufacturing sector's contribution to the GDP cz once service sector stagnates we are screwed

The concept of GDP itself is BS. We need to scrap it and develop some new measurement system.

 

[Prashant12]

India's forex reserves improves by US$ 1.88 billion in the week ended 31 May

Forex reserves rises to US$ 421.9 billion as on 31 May 2019

India's foreign exchange reserves jumped by US$ 1.88 billion to US$ 421.87 billion in the week ended 31 May 2019. The foreign exchange reserves had stood at US$ 419.99 a week ago.
Within the foreign exchange reserves, the foreign currency assets rose to US$ 394.13 billion in the week ended 31 May 2019 from US$ 392.19 billion a week ago.

The gold asset declined to US$ 22.96 billion from US$ 23.02 billion a week ago.

SDRs were flat at US$ 1.44 billion in the week ended 31 May 2019.

India's foreign exchange reserves increased by US$ 9.00 billion over March 2019, and jumped US$ 9.64 billion over a year ago level, mainly driven by the increase in foreign currency assets.

https://www.business-standard.com/a...-in-the-week-ended-31-may-119060700945_1.html

 

[Peter]

it is a scam or idiocy. it is quite inefficient to use electrolysis to generate hydrogen, unless you have a large source of cheap electricity. This chaps seems to be generating hydrogen on his car. If he has electricity available on his car then just use it directly in an electric motor.

if the invention is an ICE using hydrogen - that may be something useful - but the video says that ICE are inefficient so he must not be developing an ICE.

Final conclusion. Scam and fraud

Me too thinks the same but won`t say anything as I have not studied chemistry but computer science.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

India's GDP growth overestimated by 2.5% between FY12 and FY17: Ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian

Subramanian mentioned said methodological changes in calculating GDP have led to overestimating GDP growth by at least 2.5 per cent per year between FY12 and FY17.

Former chief economic advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian may have revived the debate on GDP growth figures as he revealed findings of his recent research paper, where he mentioned that India's growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 were overestimated.

Subramanian mentioned said methodological changes in calculating GDP have led to overestimating GDP growth by at least 2.5 per cent per year between FY12 and FY17.


His research paper, titled 'India’s GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood,
Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications', also indicates that India's average growth between 2011 and 2016 was 4.5 per cent, not the official estimate of 6.9 per cent.

"Instead of the reported growth of 6.9 per cent between 2011 and 2016, actual growth was more likely to have been between 3.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent," he said in his research paper.

"A variety of evidence--within India and across countries--suggests that India's GDP growth has been overstated by about 2.5 percentage points per year in the post-2011 period, with a 95 per cent confidence band of 1 percentage point. Cumulatively, over five years, the level of GDP might have been overstated by about 9-21 per cent," Subramanian's research paper said.

"A variety of evidence suggests that the methodology changes introduced for the post-2011 GDP estimates led to an over-estimation of GDP growth," it added.

He said that India may not be growing at a "guns-blazing" pace, and indicated that a more realistic approach needs to be adopted for boosting growth.

"The results in the paper suggest that the heady narrative of a guns-blazing India must cede to a more realistic one of an economy growing solidly but not spectacularly," it said.

The research paper not only questions the methodology used by Indian statisticians but also mentions that the absence of access to all disaggregated data that go into constructing GDP estimates are insufficient.

"In the absence of access to all the disaggregated data that went into constructing the GDP estimates, there are only indirect ways of ascertaining the plausibility or reliability of India’s GDP estimates after the 2011-12 methodology revisions," the research paper said.

Find the abstract of the research paper below:

India changed its data sources and methodology for estimating real gross domestic product (GDP) for the period since 2011-12. This paper shows that this change has led to a significant overestimation of growth. Official estimates place annual average GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 at about 7 percent. We estimate that actual growth may have been about 4.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of 3.5 - 5.5 percent. The evidence, based on disaggregated data from India and cross-sectional/panel regressions, is robust. Lending further credence to the evidence, part of the overestimation can be related to a key methodological change, which affected the measurement of the formal manufacturing sector. These findings alter our understanding of India’s growth performance after the Global Financial Crisis, from spectacular to solid. Two important policy implications follow: the entire national income accounts estimation should be revisited, harnessing new opportunities created by the Goods and Services Tax to significantly improve it; and restoring growth should be the urgent priority for the new government.

What do you guys think about the above news? @Haldiram @ezsasa

 

[ezsasa]

India's GDP growth overestimated by 2.5% between FY12 and FY17: Ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian

Subramanian mentioned said methodological changes in calculating GDP have led to overestimating GDP growth by at least 2.5 per cent per year between FY12 and FY17.

Former chief economic advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian may have revived the debate on GDP growth figures as he revealed findings of his recent research paper, where he mentioned that India's growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 were overestimated.

Subramanian mentioned said methodological changes in calculating GDP have led to overestimating GDP growth by at least 2.5 per cent per year between FY12 and FY17.


His research paper, titled 'India’s GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood,
Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications', also indicates that India's average growth between 2011 and 2016 was 4.5 per cent, not the official estimate of 6.9 per cent.

"Instead of the reported growth of 6.9 per cent between 2011 and 2016, actual growth was more likely to have been between 3.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent," he said in his research paper.

"A variety of evidence--within India and across countries--suggests that India's GDP growth has been overstated by about 2.5 percentage points per year in the post-2011 period, with a 95 per cent confidence band of 1 percentage point. Cumulatively, over five years, the level of GDP might have been overstated by about 9-21 per cent," Subramanian's research paper said.

"A variety of evidence suggests that the methodology changes introduced for the post-2011 GDP estimates led to an over-estimation of GDP growth," it added.

He said that India may not be growing at a "guns-blazing" pace, and indicated that a more realistic approach needs to be adopted for boosting growth.

"The results in the paper suggest that the heady narrative of a guns-blazing India must cede to a more realistic one of an economy growing solidly but not spectacularly," it said.

The research paper not only questions the methodology used by Indian statisticians but also mentions that the absence of access to all disaggregated data that go into constructing GDP estimates are insufficient.

"In the absence of access to all the disaggregated data that went into constructing the GDP estimates, there are only indirect ways of ascertaining the plausibility or reliability of India’s GDP estimates after the 2011-12 methodology revisions," the research paper said.

Find the abstract of the research paper below:

India changed its data sources and methodology for estimating real gross domestic product (GDP) for the period since 2011-12. This paper shows that this change has led to a significant overestimation of growth. Official estimates place annual average GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 at about 7 percent. We estimate that actual growth may have been about 4.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of 3.5 - 5.5 percent. The evidence, based on disaggregated data from India and cross-sectional/panel regressions, is robust. Lending further credence to the evidence, part of the overestimation can be related to a key methodological change, which affected the measurement of the formal manufacturing sector. These findings alter our understanding of India’s growth performance after the Global Financial Crisis, from spectacular to solid. Two important policy implications follow: the entire national income accounts estimation should be revisited, harnessing new opportunities created by the Goods and Services Tax to significantly improve it; and restoring growth should be the urgent priority for the new government.

What do you guys think about the above news? @Haldiram @ezsasa

Either he about to release a new book of his or he has already released some book, hence the controversy for publicity. In all probability when he started writing this paper, he believed the media polls and didn’t expect Modi to win with such a majority.

Govt had released a rebuttal yesterday, it’s upto people to decide.

Me personally I don’t care what Aravind says, analysis done by his 5/6 interns cannot a substitute for more than 120 govt statisticians.

But yes these things are coming up again and again is because of lack of proper data from the ground, this has to be definitely fixed. If India aspires to be a 400 lakh crore economy soon, we can’t be relying on substandard data and its extrapolation.

 

[Sehwag123]

This guy openly criticized Modi and Gujarat in 2013 yet he was made CEA. God knows how much influence , Jaitley has on Modi.

 

[IndianHawk]

Either he about to release a new book of his or he has already released some book, hence the controversy for publicity. In all probability when he started writing this paper, he believed the media polls and didn’t expect Modi to win with such a majority.

Govt had released a rebuttal yesterday, it’s upto people to decide.

Me personally I don’t care what Aravind says, analysis done by his 5/6 interns cannot a substitute for more than 120 govt statisticians.

But yes these things are coming up again and again is because of lack of proper data from the ground, this has to be definitely fixed. If India aspires to be a 400 lakh crore economy soon, we can’t be relying on substandard data and its extrapolation.

This will keep happening. We have issues with data gathering and there will never be dearth of butthurt people to make such allegation.

We must quietly work on formalization of economy and better indication for jobs and growth data. Meanwhile let the dogs bark .


Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[ezsasa]

This will keep happening. We have issues with data gathering and there will never be dearth of butthurt people to make such allegation.

We must quietly work on formalization of economy and better indication for jobs and growth data. Meanwhile let the dogs bark .


Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

Lately I am coming to the conclusion that formalisation of economy will take another 15-20 years.

Primary focus should be on accurate data collection and analysis. It’s not the case that data does not exist, it exists but not in the formats as required by IMF standards. Need of the hour is more field research on this topic. I do believe it is a solvable problem.

For ex: a small invention like digital cash register for small traders and shops connected to GST network will solve 90% of the problem.

 

[IndianHawk]

Lately I am coming to the conclusion that formalisation of economy will take another 15-20 years.

Primary focus should be on accurate data collection and analysis. It’s not the case that data does not exist, it exists but not in the formats as required by IMF standards. Need of the hour is more field research on this topic. I do believe it is a solvable problem.

For ex: a small invention like digital cash register for small traders and shops connected to GST network will solve 90% of the problem.

Your example itself is sort of formalization. I agree it will be slow process but that is the right way . Even if we get it right detractors will find other ways to criticize . The most important thing is to accept only genuine / fact based unbiased criticism and become immune to rest of nonsense . Our focus should be growth first everything else later.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Haldiram]

India's GDP growth overestimated by 2.5% between FY12 and FY17: Ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian

Subramanian mentioned said methodological changes in calculating GDP have led to overestimating GDP growth by at least 2.5 per cent per year between FY12 and FY17.

Former chief economic advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian may have revived the debate on GDP growth figures as he revealed findings of his recent research paper, where he mentioned that India's growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 were overestimated.

Subramanian mentioned said methodological changes in calculating GDP have led to overestimating GDP growth by at least 2.5 per cent per year between FY12 and FY17.


His research paper, titled 'India’s GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood,
Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications', also indicates that India's average growth between 2011 and 2016 was 4.5 per cent, not the official estimate of 6.9 per cent.

"Instead of the reported growth of 6.9 per cent between 2011 and 2016, actual growth was more likely to have been between 3.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent," he said in his research paper.

"A variety of evidence--within India and across countries--suggests that India's GDP growth has been overstated by about 2.5 percentage points per year in the post-2011 period, with a 95 per cent confidence band of 1 percentage point. Cumulatively, over five years, the level of GDP might have been overstated by about 9-21 per cent," Subramanian's research paper said.

"A variety of evidence suggests that the methodology changes introduced for the post-2011 GDP estimates led to an over-estimation of GDP growth," it added.

He said that India may not be growing at a "guns-blazing" pace, and indicated that a more realistic approach needs to be adopted for boosting growth.

"The results in the paper suggest that the heady narrative of a guns-blazing India must cede to a more realistic one of an economy growing solidly but not spectacularly," it said.

The research paper not only questions the methodology used by Indian statisticians but also mentions that the absence of access to all disaggregated data that go into constructing GDP estimates are insufficient.

"In the absence of access to all the disaggregated data that went into constructing the GDP estimates, there are only indirect ways of ascertaining the plausibility or reliability of India’s GDP estimates after the 2011-12 methodology revisions," the research paper said.

Find the abstract of the research paper below:

India changed its data sources and methodology for estimating real gross domestic product (GDP) for the period since 2011-12. This paper shows that this change has led to a significant overestimation of growth. Official estimates place annual average GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 at about 7 percent. We estimate that actual growth may have been about 4.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of 3.5 - 5.5 percent. The evidence, based on disaggregated data from India and cross-sectional/panel regressions, is robust. Lending further credence to the evidence, part of the overestimation can be related to a key methodological change, which affected the measurement of the formal manufacturing sector. These findings alter our understanding of India’s growth performance after the Global Financial Crisis, from spectacular to solid. Two important policy implications follow: the entire national income accounts estimation should be revisited, harnessing new opportunities created by the Goods and Services Tax to significantly improve it; and restoring growth should be the urgent priority for the new government.

What do you guys think about the above news? @Haldiram @ezsasa

I've purposely kept away from the GDP calculation debate. Productivity is difficult to measure with so many variables that fluctuate daily >> currency conversion rate, domestic inflation and raw material cost. It's difficult to relate last year's produce with this years produce. You can use PPP, forex rate normalization or whatever, it will never be a standard metric. It's good only as a generic metric and valid to measure the relative productivity corresponding to the previous or next quarter at the most. It's like a sniper in a moving helicopter trying to shoot another moving target.

 

[DG7867]

Seems like current situation stems from NBFCs.. RBI n MoF must act quick.. or else we could be staying at another financial crisis..

 

[Haldiram]

Seems like current situation stems from NBFCs.. RBI n MoF must act quick.. or else we could be staying at another financial crisis..

They have acted, hence the crash in stocks and bonds. The correction that started in 2017 is still ongoing. Most stocks are down 30-40% and still going down (only the 4-5 Index stocks are up). Bonds crashed in a major way last week.

The gormint has forced more than a dozen big conglomerates to sell their land to settle the debts. This is full on repair work going on. That's why they introduced the insolvency law which allows the gormint to liquidate a company if it messes up. If this wasn't done now, it would turn into our own Lehman Brothers in 2030.

These markit crashes are healthy signs. Every time there is a correction, the institutions are basically using the liquidity of the markets to pay off their debts. It affects retail investors adversely but it benefits companies and the nation in some way. If retail investors are overpaying for stocks, the promoter can easily choose to dump more of his own stocks at elevated rates and take the retail investor's money to fix his debt. This means the stock price will crash but the company's balance sheet will improve (debt will reduce). That's why everyone's portfolio is in the red this year. It's like an extra donation we are making towards nation-building, in addition to the tax we pay. @Bhadra has made a hearty donation this year.

2019 is the year of repair work. It will last another 2 quarters until things improve. Even gormint is following a systematic divestment plan and offloading whatever stake it owns in the country's firms, such that a larger % of the ownership of the nation's economy is being transferred from centralized ownership (private promoters /gormint) to the people. Strategically, it's a good sign that we are moving away from socialism (centralized ownership of national assets), to capitalism (people owning their economy). The pain point is that this transfer of ownership is happening at higher valuations so investors will have to wait 5-7 years to see any real gains from investments made at these valuations.

Net net, things are good. Even this correction is good, if taken in context of the nation.

Pre-2017, in most companies, the promoter held 75% of the stake and retail citizens held only 25%, and the companies had massive debt. Once this correction is over, the citizens will end up owning 50% of corporate India and the corporate debt will be gone. Basically the citizens are bailing out the corporates with their money, in exchange for being given a stake in the company. So, investors also benefit from all the profits the company will make in the future.

This template is much better than the gormint bailing them out with our tax money and giving us no stake in future profits. This is what free markit looks like. You stick your neck out for a company when the times are bad, and you benefit with things improve. People from the previous generation who were addicted to the predictability of the PPF and monthly pension schemes see this volatility as a bad thing. It's actually a good thing. Let it be more volatile. Good companies are becoming available at a discount.

 

[Cutting Edge 2]

India Ready to Impose Higher Tariffs on Over 20 US Goods - Reports



https://sputniknews.com/business/20...&utm_content=mDYj&utm_campaign=URL_shortening

 

[IndianHawk]

India Ready to Impose Higher Tariffs on Over 20 US Goods - Reports



https://sputniknews.com/business/20...&utm_content=mDYj&utm_campaign=URL_shortening

Just before pompio coming . Very timely slap.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Prashant12]

Forex reserves nearing lifetime high; up $1.7 billion to $423.5 billion


MUMBAI: Inching closer to its historic peak, India's forex kitty increased by $1.686 billion to $423.554 billion for the week to June 7, RBI data showed on Friday.

The foreign exchange reserves had increased by $1.875 billion to $421.867 billion in the previous reporting week.
The reserves had touched a lifetime high of $426.028 billion in April 2018.

In the reporting week, foreign currency assets, a major component of the overall reserves, rose by $1.666 billion to $395.801 billion, the apex bank said.

Expressed in dollar terms, foreign currency assets include the effect of appreciation/depreciation of non-US units like the euro, pound and yen held in the reserves.

Gold reserves were unchanged at $22.958 billion, according to the RBI data.

The special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund rose $6.1 million to $1.449 billion.

The country's reserve position with the fund also rose $14 million to $3.3345 billion.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ion-to-423-5-billion/articleshow/69793384.cms

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Forex reserves nearing lifetime high; up $1.7 billion to $423.5 billion


MUMBAI: Inching closer to its historic peak, India's forex kitty increased by $1.686 billion to $423.554 billion for the week to June 7, RBI data showed on Friday.

The foreign exchange reserves had increased by $1.875 billion to $421.867 billion in the previous reporting week.
The reserves had touched a lifetime high of $426.028 billion in April 2018.

In the reporting week, foreign currency assets, a major component of the overall reserves, rose by $1.666 billion to $395.801 billion, the apex bank said.

Expressed in dollar terms, foreign currency assets include the effect of appreciation/depreciation of non-US units like the euro, pound and yen held in the reserves.

Gold reserves were unchanged at $22.958 billion, according to the RBI data.

The special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund rose $6.1 million to $1.449 billion.

The country's reserve position with the fund also rose $14 million to $3.3345 billion.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ion-to-423-5-billion/articleshow/69793384.cms

I know when INR was falling very fast against dollar people advised Modi 2 to raise some dollar from NRI like Chidambaram had done when rupee fell Modi decided against it and took some other measures to control downfall of INR against USD. Trump has the policy 2 of crushing other currencies of other nations whis thas the potential to stand against USD. In last 3 years Chinese USD reserve as Fallen by sahab 1 Trillion US dollars we need to be very careful avoid dollar transections as possible. So late USD reserve rise. Invest it properly to get some nice return I recall very back there was a article that if India would have invested its USD reserve smartly , India would have got 5 to 6 BL US dollars interest. so wewe ne to I to carry out this USD management veey smartly.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Making India $5 Trillion Economy By 2024 a 'Challenging but Achievable' Goal, Says PM Modi
This was the first governing council meeting under the new Modi government. While most chief ministers were in attendance, West Bengal's Mamata Banerjee and Telangana's K Chandrashekhar Rao skipped it.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the 5th meeting of the Governing Council of NITI Aayog. (Image: Twitter/Niti Aayog)

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered the opening remarks at the fifth meeting of the Governing Council of NITI Aayog at the Rashtrapati Bhawan on Saturday.

"The NITI Aayog has a key role to play in fulfilling the mantra of 'Sabka saath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas'," he said, adding that the goal was to make India a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

While the goal is challenging, it is achievable with the concerted efforts of the states, Modi said. All states should recognise their core competence and work towards raising Gross Domestic Product (GDP) targets right from the district level, he added.

Recalling the recent Lok Sabha elections as the world's largest democratic exercise, Modi said that it is now time for everyone to work for the development of India. He spoke of a collective fight against poverty, unemployment, drought, flood, pollution, corruption and violence.

Amid several parts of the country facing a drought-like situation, Modi called for effective steps to tackle it by adopting 'per-drop, more-crop' strategy. He said that the newly created Jal Shakti Ministry will help provide an integrated approach to water and states can also integrate various efforts towards water conservation and management.

Modi reiterated the Union Government's commitment to double the incomes of farmers by 2022. To achieve this, he said there should be a focus on fisheries, animal husbandry, horticulture, fruits and vegetables. He said that the benefits of PM-KISAN and other farmer-centric schemes should reach the intended beneficiaries well within time.

Noting there is a need for structural reform in agriculture, Modi spoke of the need to boost corporate investment, strengthen logistics, and provide ample market support. He said the food processing sector should grow at a faster pace than foodgrain production.

NITI Aayog Vice-Chairperson Rajiv Kumar said the body, since its inception in 2015, has been facilitating and competitive federalism and providing fresh ideas and policy inputs for both central and state governments.

This was the first governing council meeting under the new Modi government. Among others who attended were Union ministers Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman and Rajnath Singh.

The council, the apex body of the Niti Aayog, includes all chief ministers, lieutenant governors of Union Territories, several Union ministers and senior government officials.

The meeting is being attended by all chief ministers, except West Bengal's Mamata Banerjee and Telangana's K Chandrashekhar Rao. Banerjee had earlier said that attending it would be "fruitless" as the Niti Aayog has no financial powers to support state plans. Rao did not come as he was busy with preparations for the launch of the ambitious Rs 80,000 crore Kaleshwaram lift irrigation project that would end water woes in the state.

Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, who could not attend due to health reasons, deputed his finance minister Manpreet Badal.

Modi said that everyone has a common goal of achieving a New India by 2022. He described Swachh Bharat Abhiyan and PM Awaas Yojana as illustrations of what the Centre and the states can accomplish together.

Modi also said that empowerment and ease of living have to be provided to each and every Indian. He said the goals that have been set for the 150th anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi, should be accomplished by October 2nd, and work should begin in the earnest towards the goals for 2022, the 75th anniversary of independence.

Stressing that the focus should be on collective responsibility for achieving short term and long term goals, Modi said the goal to make India a $5 trillion economy by 2024, is "challenging, but can surely be achieved". The size of India's economy was estimated at %2.75 trillion at the end of March.

Modi also stressed on increasing exports from the country.

Referring to the left-wing extremism, Modi said the battle against Naxal violence is now in a decisive phase. "Violence will be dealt with firmly, even as development proceeds in a fast-paced and balanced manner," he said.

On the health sector, Modi said that several targets have to keep in mind, to be achieved by 2022. He also mentioned the target of eliminating tuberculosis by 2025.

Modi urged those states who have not implemented PMJAY under Ayushman Bharat, so far, to come onboard at the earliest. He said health and wellness should be the focal point of every decision.

The Governing Council reviews the action taken on the agenda items of the previous meeting and deliberates upon the future developmental priorities.

The first meeting of the Governing Council was held on February 8, 2015, in which Modi had laid down the key mandates of the Niti Aayog, which included fostering cooperative federalism and addressing national issues through active participation of the states.

The second meeting on July 15, 2015, had reviewed the progress made by the three sub-groups of chief ministers and the two task forces.

In the third meeting on April 23, 2017, Modi had pitched for conducting simultaneous elections of the Lok Sabha and the state assemblies and shifting to a January-December fiscal year.

The fourth meeting on June 17 last year had deliberated upon the measures taken to double farmers' income and the progress of the government's flagship schemes.

(With inputs from PTI)

 

[Indx TechStyle]

India may trade places with US to ship items to China
Plans to export antibiotics, diesel engines and granite amid tariff spat between Washington and Beijing.

BCCL
India has prepared a strategy to gain market access in China for its farm and pharmaceutical exports.

NEW DELHI: India has identified 151 products that it can export to China instead of the US and benefit from the price advantage thrown up by the retaliatory higher duties slapped by the Xi Jinping government on US products amid the intensifying trade war between the two countries.

These include diesel engines, X-ray tubes, antibiotics, copper ores, granite, xylene, inverter and ketones, said people with knowledge of the matter.

This comes in the wake of the US terminating preferential benefits to $6.35 billion of Indian exports and India deciding to raise import tariffs on 28 goods originating in the US. “There are more than a hundred lines in which India has the potential to replace the US exports to China as it has market access and is a competitor of the US,” said an official aware of an internal study by the Department of Commerce to identify such products.

The government has also identified 531 product lines in which US imports from China and India’s exports to the world are significant. Out of these, India has the potential to replace Chinese exports to the US as it has market access and is a competitor of China in 203 lines.

China has slapped a higher duty of 5-25% on most chemicals coming from the US compared with the tariff of 2-7% levied on Indian chemicals.

Copper concentrates, granite, xylene and inverters are the key American products on which China has levied 25% duty while products of reclaimed rubber and parts of taps are in the 20% tariff category since June 1.

India and China, two of the fastest-growing markets in the world, are members of the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement and are negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact with 14 others. “The ongoing retaliatory tariffs provide a window of opportunity for enhancing India’s exports to China,” the official said.

The 151 products identified by India are part of a list of 774 such items where the country sees scope for higher exports. These 774 product lines are those in which China’s imports from the US are substantial and so are India’s exports to the world.

Besides, there are more than 600 other products in which market access with China will be vigorously pursued, said the official.

India has prepared a strategy to gain market access in China for its farm and pharmaceutical exports and attract foreign companies looking to shift their manufacturing bases out of the country in the wake of the trade war between the US and China. India’s trade deficit with China stood at a record $53.6 billion in FY18.

“There is potential to export more xylene and benzene to China,” said a Mumbai-based exporter of organic and inorganic chemicals, who did not wish to be identified. “However, these are bulk chemicals in liquid form wherein all kind of logistics are important including timely availability of steamers. High costs of freight and electricity too are issues, which if resolved, will help us export more.”

 

[Mikesingh]

PM Modi’s GST and demonetisation played big role in the formalisation of over 2 million jobs: ISF report

Cumulatively over 28% of 7.06 million jobs formalised in between these four years were due to demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST)

The two bold steps, demonetisation and GST, by the Modi government 1.0, despite drawing flak had contributed immensely in formalising jobs, reveals a study commissioned by Indian Staffing Federation (ISF).

The last four years saw an unprecedented momentum in the formalisation of jobs. More than seven million jobs have been formalised between 2015 and 2018. Cumulatively over 28% of 7.06 million jobs formalised in between these four years were due to demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST).

The Narendra Modi-led government had in November 2016 announced demonetisation of specified high-value banknotes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denominations. GST, a comprehensive indirect tax that subsumed various central and state levies, came into effect in July 2017. The government has drawn harsh criticisms for the haste with which both the steps were implemented and the consequent problems faced by large sections of industry.

The study reveals that only about 16% of India’s estimated 500 million workforces are in the formal sector. The rest are in the informal sector. Modi Government 1.0 had always stressed on higher formal employment.

More.......https://www.opindia.com/2019/06/pm-...-report/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push

The informal sector was and is seldom taken into account where job growth is concerned. There are millions who are not accounted for in official stats but are well paid like carpenters, plumbers, cooks, gardeners etc.

For eg, my gardner works at three more places for two hours each and earns a cumulative Rs 12000 pm plus Diwali bonus etc. His wife works as a cook as above and earns Rs 24000 pm. So that amounts to Rs 36,000 for the family per month not including bonuses. But they are nowhere accounted for.in the workforce data. So how do the nerds say that employment is at a 45 year low? That's probably only for govt jobs and thus doesn't show the correct picture.

By the way, carpenters here earn Rs 800 to Rs 1000 per day. And it's next to impossible to get them! You need to book them at least a week to ten days in advance! Are they accounted for in the official job statistics? No! So what's all this nonsense about acute joblessness? Has anyone starved to death so far because of this? No! That's because everyone is earning! Some less, some more. But earning they are......including pakorawalas!! Some earn over Rs 50,000 per month! Are they jobless?

QED