Indian Economy: News and Discussion

NutCracker

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People should hold their horses about comparing India's growth with China.

It's virtually impossible to have sustained growth like China in a Democracy like India.

Any large scale reform that'd yield economic gains will be opposed using the very Democratic values that some Indians proudly boast about. Farmers protests being the most recent example.

India will have a very different trajectory compared to China.

That's 2017 ..
and tagged to that notorious wumao filth larping as Indian KANTHAN.
 

Vinash

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POSCO protest like every other case, commies mobilised the masses against POSCO.

so basically, commies in every other non-commie country work to slow down industrialisation thru activism and protests, so that there is less competition for china.
Yes! Posco, Sterlite etc point being, in a Democracy you can create obstacles for higher economic growth in a myriad of ways.

So, we should always be vigilant and not take unhindered economic growth as a given.

That's 2017 ..
and tagged to that notorious wumao larping as Indian KANTHAN.
Neither the date nor the tagging to that Chinese larping as Indian matter.

His take is very reasonable. He explicitly says that India took the worst qualities from the West when it comes to dealing with protests. The Farmers protests showed his assessment to be true.

Also, he's a private investor. So, unlike Goras that work for the Gov who have to hype and simp for India, he can afford to be brutally honest.
 

Haldilal

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Yes! Posco, Sterlite etc point being, in a Democracy you can create obstacles for higher economic growth in a myriad of ways.

So, we should always be vigilant and not take unhindered economic growth as a given.



Neither the date nor the tagging to that Chinese larping as Indian matter.

His take is very reasonable. He explicitly says that India took the worst qualities from the West when it comes to dealing with protests. The Farmers protests showed his assessment to be true.

Also, he's a private investor. So, unlike Goras that work for the Gov who have to hype and simp for India, he can afford to be brutally honest.
Ya'll Nibbiars and also Brutal Uncertified Architect, deisgned a 20 lakh Sq. Ft. drometary without any windows.

 

FalconSlayers

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These are the things which every babu needs to be shown everyday and made feel ashamed of.
(Now ofcourse I'm not saying Skyscraper = Development but truth is that a commercial skyscraper or any commercial building certainly = development)


 

SKC

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Ya'll Nibbiars and also Brutal Uncertified Architect, deisgned a 20 lakh Sq. Ft. drometary without any windows.

US has some kind of love for such buildings.
reminds me the famous 33:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/33_Thomas_Street

 

jadoogar

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whales is very important for sea ecosystem....they dont eat fish, they eat very small krills, which is like smaller prawns. they open their mouth nd filter huge amount of krills with sea water. japan is killing huge amount of whales, just like european did. if they will not stop, some kind of whales become indangered/red list.
Well - these krill are close to the bottom of the food chain (just above phytoplankton, zooplankton) -

- if the whales were to eat a bunch of them there is less krill for other smaller fish to eat
- so now you have fewer smaller fish (not enough krill for them)
- and now fewer larger fish (not enough small fish for them)
- ... and so on

So based on what you pointed out boss मुझे लगता है that whales are totally unimportant for the ecosystem. That does not mean of course that one wipes them out - but some form of external control is perhaps needed - since they do not have a lot of natural predators.

Seems almost diabolical - (1) Goras create CCP to wipe out fish in the ocean and (2) high decibel campaign to prevent control of whale population .... :) perhaps it was not deliberate :)

----
Regardless there is no need to eat fish - especially ocean fish - not good
Being from the Ganga belt - I can't stand the smell - even in Bengal they eat only freshwater fish and export sea water fish..

veg diet (grain, dal, etc) (dairy - especially for children) provides all that one needs ... (with some caveats)
 
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Bharatiya

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People should hold their horses about comparing India's growth with China.


It's virtually impossible to have sustained growth like China in a Democracy like India.


Any large scale reform that'd yield economic gains will be opposed using the very Democratic values that some Indians proudly boast about. Farmers protests being the most recent example.


India will have a very different trajectory compared to China.


Munger is spot on. World only wants results, not the process. If you look at it, all of the big problems he speaks about are inherited. These are problems that any country would’ve typically solved at Independence. But we doubled down and quadrapuled down on them.

Democracy:
There was one dumb country, one dumb populace whose leader was a british asskisser that picked democracy for a country with a literacy rate of 14%. Democracy is the absolute dumbfuck idea in that circumstance. I don't know any country, none sizable, that picked democracy at its freedom at such literacy rate and is developed today. All south americans nations are under US. Middle Eastern are monarchies. Western Europeans are already developed, Eastern Europe was industrialized under USSR. All asian countries around us are either some sort of dictatorship or military rule.

The biggest mistake India, no, Nehru did was to take western democracy as it is into Indian governance without adjusting it for the existing realties. West was democratic because it got rich, not vice versa. It’s such a simple and no brainer that it should’ve been a redflag in seeing democracy as supreme.

People wrongly attribute that Nehru was a noble soul in that he gave up chance to rule over India. He did rule over India for all his life. He wasn’t even elected ffs. He got the chance to become the PM.

Enough of past, let’s look at why the contrast between China & India exists. Only two words come to it.
  1. Top-down vs Bottom-up
  2. National Institutions

Top-down vs Bottom-up:
For almost 68 years, India was ruled under Nehruvian elitism.
  1. IITs were built but there wasn't a target to hit 90% literacy rate—even 75 years. China hit our 2011 rate in 1990. 20 years ahead. This is the basic of basic human capital.
  2. Most rural Indians literally didn't have toilets until last decade.
  3. Lots of Indians had no bank accounts until Modi.

These are basic moves to improve society. But they never occurred as important to any Congressi.

WHY?

They rule from above. They cannot have any sense of what it feels like to be on the ground, to be an average Indian, saving up his money for children’s education, taking loans for marriage, bribing every donkey stretching its hand, living without proper water, road and even a toilet.

Truth be told, our congressi aren’t much different from Pakistan’s elite.

This is the root and rot of Indian policies than this.

People ask why India is still at a pathetic $2.5k after 75 years of independence. There are african countries with sizable populations that have hit $3k and $4k per capita. FFS. For all the achievements, our population is piss poor. We're competing with Sub-saharan africa in per capita income—the poorest region in the world!

Democracy wouldn't work for us. Not after we inherited the worst parts of democracy and socialism. The stupidest shit one can do, we've done it.

What’s the Way Forward?

Without a deepstate that can push for national interests regardless of govt, there is little hope we can be ever catch up with China. Maybe this is the last chance before the next industrial revolution. The countries that industralized first had massive advantages over the ones that didn't—it'd be same this time, but only much worse. Countries that first harness AI, Nuclear fusion & Nano technology—maybe 10, 20 or 30 years into the future—will rule the world. It doesn't matter if our GDP is $10 or $20 or even $30 Trillion by then. The game might very well be reset. If we don’t get there at the same time as the forerunners, we’d be bringing a sword to the gunfight.

We can remain content on growing because we would grow of course, but if we are to ever become anything of a serious player internationally, the current system wouldn't support it. We need changes. Democracy in its current form is the safest but also the most mediocre way.

Indians, especially, the Indian elite should not put democracy before the nation. Democracy isn't sacrosanct. Takes me back to a reply I've given here about the Qin Kingdom which is able to defeat 6 other Chinese kingdoms and unify China in 200 AD which also brings me to second point.

Institutions:
"Countries with institutional advantages will more easily win wars against decadent and backward countries."

Ponder on it for a moment. Institutional advantages. The efficiency, long term planning, scale of execution, self-correction ability, delivering results and more.

Suppose a new technology came out today. All countries start at the same baseline. Which countries would be able to race ahead? The ones that can direct manpower, resources in the right direction over a long period of time.

An appropriate example for this is Defense Equipment of India—we were sleeping since Independence. We have nukes but can’t make rifles. We have satellites but don’t have our own jets. It’s not a democracy vs autocracy problem. European democracies, even Korea have achieved it. The institutions of these countries are robust and capable of achieving their goal. Ours are bragging about $1.5 Billion exports after 75 years of Independence. That’s half of our Basmati Rice exports.

China has these institutions in the form of ridiculously efficient governments that can plan and finish a project within 2 years. Almost entire Chinese high speed rail network we see today is built since 2008.

Untitled (7).png


I don’t believe Indian democracy can achieve such efficiency in current form.

Things have to change. We have to talk about a better form of governance which will actually strengthen our institutions and allow us to compete globally.

Want good roads? Good neighborhoods? Good rails?

Or the basic of basic, do we want to give justice to common man without letting him wait for 10 years?

Our institutions should be reformed along with our mode of governance. This is the need of the hour, more than any economic, foreign or trade policy. We cannot be okay with us not growing at China’s pace because we are a democracy. Steps have to be taken. Or else we’ll never win. In this world, Winner takes it all.

We may not have much voice nationally, but we can at least spark the talks on these issues.
 

vin bharat mahan

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Well - these krill are close to the bottom of the food chain (just above phytoplankton, zooplankton) -

- if the whales were to eat a bunch of them there is less krill for other smaller fish to eat
- so now you have fewer smaller fish (not enough krill for them)
- and now fewer larger fish (not enough small fish for them)
- ... and so on

So based on what you pointed out boss मुझे लगता है that whales are totally unimportant for the ecosystem. That does not mean of course that one wipes them out - but some form of external control is perhaps needed - since they do not have a lot of natural predators.

Seems almost diabolical - (1) Goras create CCP to wipe out fish in the ocean and (2) high decibel campaign to prevent control of whale population .... :) perhaps it was not deliberate :)

----
Regardless there is no need to eat fish - especially ocean fish - not good
Being from the Ganga belt - I can't stand the smell - even in Bengal they eat only freshwater fish and export sea water fish..

veg diet (grain, dal, etc) (dairy - especially for children) provides all that one needs ... (with some caveats)
ur argument is like, some human eat plants. coz plant is eat by other animals. so human is not necessary for nature. do me a favour nd watch whales role in sea ecosystem. u will find ur answer. coz i can give u half answer, so plz just google or view video in youtube. 🙏
 

vin bharat mahan

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Munger is spot on. World only wants results, not the process. If you look at it, all of the big problems he speaks about are inherited. These are problems that any country would’ve typically solved at Independence. But we doubled down and quadrapuled down on them.

Democracy:
There was one dumb country, one dumb populace whose leader was a british asskisser that picked democracy for a country with a literacy rate of 14%. Democracy is the absolute dumbfuck idea in that circumstance. I don't know any country, none sizable, that picked democracy at its freedom at such literacy rate and is developed today. All south americans nations are under US. Middle Eastern are monarchies. Western Europeans are already developed, Eastern Europe was industrialized under USSR. All asian countries around us are either some sort of dictatorship or military rule.

The biggest mistake India, no, Nehru did was to take western democracy as it is into Indian governance without adjusting it for the existing realties. West was democratic because it got rich, not vice versa. It’s such a simple and no brainer that it should’ve been a redflag in seeing democracy as supreme.

People wrongly attribute that Nehru was a noble soul in that he gave up chance to rule over India. He did rule over India for all his life. He wasn’t even elected ffs. He got the chance to become the PM.

Enough of past, let’s look at why the contrast between China & India exists. Only two words come to it.
  1. Top-down vs Bottom-up
  2. National Institutions

Top-down vs Bottom-up:
For almost 68 years, India was ruled under Nehruvian elitism.
  1. IITs were built but there wasn't a target to hit 90% literacy rate—even 75 years. China hit our 2011 rate in 1990. 20 years ahead. This is the basic of basic human capital.
  2. Most rural Indians literally didn't have toilets until last decade.
  3. Lots of Indians had no bank accounts until Modi.

These are basic moves to improve society. But they never occurred as important to any Congressi.

WHY?

They rule from above. They cannot have any sense of what it feels like to be on the ground, to be an average Indian, saving up his money for children’s education, taking loans for marriage, bribing every donkey stretching its hand, living without proper water, road and even a toilet.

Truth be told, our congressi aren’t much different from Pakistan’s elite.

This is the root and rot of Indian policies than this.

People ask why India is still at a pathetic $2.5k after 75 years of independence. There are african countries with sizable populations that have hit $3k and $4k per capita. FFS. For all the achievements, our population is piss poor. We're competing with Sub-saharan africa in per capita income—the poorest region in the world!

Democracy wouldn't work for us. Not after we inherited the worst parts of democracy and socialism. The stupidest shit one can do, we've done it.

What’s the Way Forward?

Without a deepstate that can push for national interests regardless of govt, there is little hope we can be ever catch up with China. Maybe this is the last chance before the next industrial revolution. The countries that industralized first had massive advantages over the ones that didn't—it'd be same this time, but only much worse. Countries that first harness AI, Nuclear fusion & Nano technology—maybe 10, 20 or 30 years into the future—will rule the world. It doesn't matter if our GDP is $10 or $20 or even $30 Trillion by then. The game might very well be reset. If we don’t get there at the same time as the forerunners, we’d be bringing a sword to the gunfight.

We can remain content on growing because we would grow of course, but if we are to ever become anything of a serious player internationally, the current system wouldn't support it. We need changes. Democracy in its current form is the safest but also the most mediocre way.

Indians, especially, the Indian elite should not put democracy before the nation. Democracy isn't sacrosanct. Takes me back to a reply I've given here about the Qin Kingdom which is able to defeat 6 other Chinese kingdoms and unify China in 200 AD which also brings me to second point.

Institutions:
"Countries with institutional advantages will more easily win wars against decadent and backward countries."

Ponder on it for a moment. Institutional advantages. The efficiency, long term planning, scale of execution, self-correction ability, delivering results and more.

Suppose a new technology came out today. All countries start at the same baseline. Which countries would be able to race ahead? The ones that can direct manpower, resources in the right direction over a long period of time.

An appropriate example for this is Defense Equipment of India—we were sleeping since Independence. We have nukes but can’t make rifles. We have satellites but don’t have our own jets. It’s not a democracy vs autocracy problem. European democracies, even Korea have achieved it. The institutions of these countries are robust and capable of achieving their goal. Ours are bragging about $1.5 Billion exports after 75 years of Independence. That’s half of our Basmati Rice exports.

China has these institutions in the form of ridiculously efficient governments that can plan and finish a project within 2 years. Almost entire Chinese high speed rail network we see today is built since 2008.

View attachment 199298

I don’t believe Indian democracy can achieve such efficiency in current form.

Things have to change. We have to talk about a better form of governance which will actually strengthen our institutions and allow us to compete globally.

Want good roads? Good neighborhoods? Good rails?

Or the basic of basic, do we want to give justice to common man without letting him wait for 10 years?

Our institutions should be reformed along with our mode of governance. This is the need of the hour, more than any economic, foreign or trade policy. We cannot be okay with us not growing at China’s pace because we are a democracy. Steps have to be taken. Or else we’ll never win. In this world, Winner takes it all.

We may not have much voice nationally, but we can at least spark the talks on these issues.
yes chinese achieve good progress...but u guys forgot what sacrifice they make it for. i hv qus for u:-
1:- do u ready to kill millions of ur population, just as many chinese go through in "grt leap forward"?
2:- do u want erase ur culture nd make most of ur people atheist?
3:- do u want just like china we hv 270% debt (mostly internal) to gdp ratio?
4:- do u want one party system in india? nd want only few people hv control of country.
5:- do u want government hv power to dictate how many children u should born?? social credit score, force u in lockdown for 3 years, control ur right for foreign content etc.
 
Last edited:

Abbey

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New Delhi: Although the Modi government’s push to invest in infrastructure is encouraging more private sector investments, what’s needed for sustained growth in India is land, labour, and capital market reforms, World Bank has said.

“The growth of private sector investment is not something that can change overnight,” Dhruv Sharma, a senior economist at the World Bank, said at a press briefing held during the release of the ‘India Development Update’ report Tuesday.

Sharma was answering a question on why, with corporate balance sheets in much better health now, their profitability rising, and banks in a much better position to lend, private sector investment was not growing.

According to Sharma, a major factor at play is the confidence levels of the private sector, which the government is trying to address.

“The government has made quite a lot of progress when it comes to creating an enabling environment for private investment, but you still need a lot of confidence to invest, and you need confidence over a number of years which is what the government is trying to do with its sustained push on infrastructure investment in particular,” he said.

He also spoke about how this government investment in infrastructure was creating a “crowd in” effect, but that it would take time to manifest.

A “crowding in effect” refers to the phenomenon where high government investment leads to higher growth levels, and therefore encourages the private sector to also begin investing.

“Our estimates are that there is a crowding in effect when the government invests in infrastructure in particular,” Sharma said. “It takes a bit of time, but it does show up. In India, there is a very large critical infrastructure gap and if the government continues investing in this way, confidence will increase on the private investment side.”

‘Deep reforms needed’
World Bank economists also pointed to other actions of the government that will crowd in private investments even at the state level.

“The government is also extending the possibility for states to borrow at zero interest from the central government for 50 years so they can also carry on investment at the state level,” Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank’s Country Director for India, said at the press conference. “This will also crowd in private investment at the state level.”

But this, Kouame said, is insufficient to accelerate private sector investments — what’s needed, according to him, are “deep reforms” by the government.

“This will not solve the long-term issue of investment unless confidence grows,” he explained. “And confidence will grow, but to accelerate the growth of confidence, public investment is not enough. You need deeper reforms to make the private sector invest not just when it is hugely profitable for them, or not just when they have deep pockets.”

“You want the shallow-pocketed private sector to also invest and you want small firms to invest so they can grow,” he said. “There are a number of reforms that are needed for that.”

He pointed out that while access to land for business purposes is easy in some states, it is quite difficult in other states, and that reforms are needed to ease these processes. He also said that reforms are needed on the labour side, as well as in making it easy for firms to list and delist themselves from the stock exchanges.

Sharma added that the high-interest rate environment currently in play could also adversely impact the short-term investment decisions of the private sector, but not to a large extent.

“We are expecting some moderation in domestic demand this year and the bulk of that is coming from the consumption side,” Sharma said. “But to a certain extent, borrowing costs are high for both individuals as well as corporations. So there might be some reassessment by corporates regarding their investment decisions.”

However, he said that interest rates are not the only consideration for corporates when they decide to invest and that the World Bank doesn’t expect high-interest rates to be “a big drag on investment growth in this year or the next”.
 

Bharatiya

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yes chinese achieve good progress...but u guys forgot what sacrifice they make it for. i hv qus for u:-
1:- do u ready to kill millions of ur population, just as many chinese go through in "grt leap forward"?
2:- do u want erase ur culture nd make most of ur people atheist?
3:- do u want just like china we hv 270% debt (mostly internal) to gdp ratio?
4:- do u want one party system in india? nd want only few people hv control of country.
5:- do u want government hv power to dictate how many children u should born?? social credit score, force u in lockdown for 3 years, control ur right for foreign content etc.
1. The cause of deaths during Great Leap Forward is famines.

The number of political executions wouldn't be anywhere high. To be sure, there are people in India who deserve death sentence than life sentence but get spared by a braindead Judiciary.

2. Why would GOI do that? Hindus are not Abrahamics. We're not brainwashed. Culture will flourish, maybe even new school of thoughts will begin.

3. I don't know why they got so much debt but since they we know it happened, we can work out some other way for lower debt. If our gdp is growing fast enough, debt is no issue.

4. It's ironic this point is brought up. This is India's 75th year of Independence. Please do check how many years India was ruled under Congress. Right from 1947 all the way to 1996, with some 6 or 7 years gap. That's some 44+ years of one party rule. Then came Vajpaye who ruled for 6 years. Then Congress again. In total, Congress ruled for almost 60 years (including the Alliances).

If we exclude BJP and look until 2014, that's 60/67. A fricking 90%. That's pretty much one party rule to me. But wait, it's way worse than it. It's a ONE FAMILY RULE. And that family has no loyalty or affinity towards India or Hindus. My brother in Dharma, we already were under One Party Rule. It's just that this party wasn't a CCP to work for its people and economic progress, it's Congress. Whatever you feared already happened.

One party rule or whatever, as long as it works on meritocracy and national interest, should be fine. No single family can accumulate disproportionate power. People can be elected into the party and promoted based on their work and experience.

But forget all this, my point is whatever systems we have are too inefficient for our national aspirations. Come up with something else. Or improvize the existing ones.

5. Again, why this question, I wonder?

Do you know that most Indians do prefer 2 children thanks to population policy that began decades ago. Thanks to it and thanks to women education, our population growth slowed down.

When people who don't pay taxes leech off hardworking citiens to feed their 12 children they bore irresponsibly, yes, I feel Govt should put an upper limit on how many kids one can have.

Force me in lockdown for 3 years? For what? If I did something traitorous to the country, yes, absolutely. Someone like Zubair responsible for Hindu deaths and Nupur Sharma's case is tweeting without fear. I'd really like to have laws that punish the criminals.

Control my right for foreign content, you say. Have you been reading the foreign news? The entire western media is calling us autocracy, fasisct hindus, that we're planning to genocide 20 crore muslim population and that we're inspired by Nazis. This is literally printed in their media. You can go check.

There should be absolutely be a filter on these obvious psyops and blatant racist propaganda.

Now, you seemed to assume I'm advocating for something like CCP, that we emulate them. Not exactly. Anything that increases our national output is good enough. Any System.

Mode of governance is just a means to an end, not an end in itself.
 

Abbey

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He pointed out that while access to land for business purposes is easy in some states, it is quite difficult in other states, and that reforms are needed to ease these processes. He also said that reforms are needed on the labour side, as well as in making it easy for firms to list and delist themselves from the stock exchanges.
should government let states do these land reforms and labour reforms then cuz at central level its very risky ?
let those state who wants to suffer , suffer ?
 

Atavistic

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People should hold their horses about comparing India's growth with China.

It's virtually impossible to have sustained growth like China in a Democracy like India.

Any large scale reform that'd yield economic gains will be opposed using the very Democratic values that some Indians proudly boast about. Farmers protests being the most recent example.

India will have a very different trajectory compared to China.

It's ironic that Indians simp for China but don't want to adopt the Chinese political system, which has made China the second-most powerful nation in the world.

If we want to develop as quickly as China, we must have a strong, 1 party authoritarian regime in place for at least the next 20 years, with zero tolerance for anyone who stands in the way of progress. Under a chaotic, flawed, and unsuitable Indian dumbocracy, it is impossible to become a superpower.

Dumbocracy either creates or exacerbates the majority of the issues in India. Even if we practise dumbocracy for another 200 years, we will not even come close to China's current level of development. Idhar 30 saal lag jate hai ek airport banane mein aur udhar China 30 saalo mein puri ke puri cities khadi karta hai.
 

karn

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Required watching for all those who think that the US dollar will remain dominant . Many many countries are waking up to this scam by the americans. Heck even we are able to arrange local currency deals with 14 countries because of this yankee BS.
 

Anupu

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It's ironic that Indians simp for China but don't want to adopt the Chinese political system, which has made China the second-most powerful nation in the world.

If we want to develop as quickly as China, we must have a strong, 1 party authoritarian regime in place for at least the next 20 years, with zero tolerance for anyone who stands in the way of progress. Under a chaotic, flawed, and unsuitable Indian dumbocracy, it is impossible to become a superpower.

Dumbocracy either creates or exacerbates the majority of the issues in India. Even if we practise dumbocracy for another 200 years, we will not even come close to China's current level of development. Idhar 30 saal lag jate hai ek airport banane mein aur udhar China 30 saalo mein puri ke puri cities khadi karta hai.
Boss, China is one ethnicity, Han Chinese are 90% of the population. Our equivalent would be if the population was 90% Yadav or Brahmin or whatever. After Gupta Empire, we didn't have a single Hindu "State". Incidentally, the Gupta empire was destroyed by the same force because of which the Chinese built the Great Wall- White Huns. Chinese always had a State, they may fall into a civil war but it will always be for becoming the emperor of China.

The level of diversity we have is so much that one party system is very difficult. BJP lost in Rajasthan, simply because of Jat Rajput politics.
 

Anupu

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People should hold their horses about comparing India's growth with China.

It's virtually impossible to have sustained growth like China in a Democracy like India.

Any large scale reform that'd yield economic gains will be opposed using the very Democratic values that some Indians proudly boast about. Farmers protests being the most recent example.

India will have a very different trajectory compared to China.

China's growth is not driven by some great top-down approach it's driven by
1) Cheap capital,
2) Good Infrastructure,
3) Accessible Land,
4) Balanced Labour Laws,
5) Affordable Energy.
The top-down approach has only created stupidities like the one-child policy, which will bite them in their ass when they try to repay the insane amount of debt they have taken. Munger will eat his words if we continue on the path we are walking and he lives to see it.
 

ezsasa

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Required watching for all those who think that the US dollar will remain dominant . Many many countries are waking up to this scam by the americans. Heck even we are able to arrange local currency deals with 14 countries because of this yankee BS.
on the local currency deals..

somehow i am yet to find it convincing that there is impactful de-dollarisation happening, this narrative started on SM in small corners, now made it to MSM and a few quarters of murican political sphere.

if such a major change is indeed happening, will it not show up in global trade and other quantifiable numbers like forex reserves?
 

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