Munger is spot on. World only wants results, not the process. If you look at it, all of the big problems he speaks about are inherited. These are problems that any country would’ve typically solved at Independence. But we doubled down and quadrapuled down on them.
Democracy:
There was one dumb country, one dumb populace whose leader was a british asskisser that picked democracy for a country with a literacy rate of 14%. Democracy is the absolute dumbfuck idea in that circumstance. I don't know any country, none sizable, that picked democracy at its freedom at such literacy rate and is developed today. All south americans nations are under US. Middle Eastern are monarchies. Western Europeans are already developed, Eastern Europe was industrialized under USSR. All asian countries around us are either some sort of dictatorship or military rule.
The biggest mistake India, no, Nehru did was to take western democracy as it is into Indian governance without adjusting it for the existing realties. West was democratic because it got rich, not vice versa. It’s such a simple and no brainer that it should’ve been a redflag in seeing democracy as supreme.
People wrongly attribute that Nehru was a noble soul in that he gave up chance to rule over India. He did rule over India for all his life. He wasn’t even elected ffs. He got the chance to become the PM.
Enough of past, let’s look at why the contrast between China & India exists. Only two words come to it.
- Top-down vs Bottom-up
- National Institutions
Top-down vs Bottom-up:
For almost 68 years, India was ruled under Nehruvian elitism.
- IITs were built but there wasn't a target to hit 90% literacy rate—even 75 years. China hit our 2011 rate in 1990. 20 years ahead. This is the basic of basic human capital.
- Most rural Indians literally didn't have toilets until last decade.
- Lots of Indians had no bank accounts until Modi.
These are basic moves to improve society. But they never occurred as important to any Congressi.
WHY?
They rule from above. They cannot have any sense of what it feels like to be on the ground, to be an average Indian, saving up his money for children’s education, taking loans for marriage, bribing every donkey stretching its hand, living without proper water, road and even a toilet.
Truth be told, our congressi aren’t much different from Pakistan’s elite.
This is the root and rot of Indian policies than this.
People ask why India is still at a pathetic $2.5k after 75 years of independence. There are african countries with sizable populations that have hit $3k and $4k per capita. FFS. For all the achievements, our population is piss poor. We're competing with Sub-saharan africa in per capita income—the poorest region in the world!
Democracy wouldn't work for us. Not after we inherited the worst parts of democracy and socialism. The stupidest shit one can do, we've done it.
What’s the Way Forward?
Without a deepstate that can push for national interests regardless of govt, there is little hope we can be ever catch up with China. Maybe this is the last chance before the next industrial revolution. The countries that industralized first had massive advantages over the ones that didn't—it'd be same this time, but only much worse. Countries that first harness AI, Nuclear fusion & Nano technology—maybe 10, 20 or 30 years into the future—will rule the world. It doesn't matter if our GDP is $10 or $20 or even $30 Trillion by then. The game might very well be reset. If we don’t get there at the same time as the forerunners, we’d be bringing a sword to the gunfight.
We can remain content on growing because we would grow of course, but if we are to ever become anything of a serious player internationally, the current system wouldn't support it. We need changes. Democracy in its current form is the safest but also the most mediocre way.
Indians, especially, the Indian elite should not put democracy before the nation. Democracy isn't sacrosanct. Takes me back to a reply I've given here about the Qin Kingdom which is able to defeat 6 other Chinese kingdoms and unify China in 200 AD which also brings me to second point.
Institutions:
"Countries with institutional advantages will more easily win wars against decadent and backward countries."
Ponder on it for a moment. Institutional advantages. The efficiency, long term planning, scale of execution, self-correction ability, delivering results and more.
Suppose a new technology came out today. All countries start at the same baseline. Which countries would be able to race ahead? The ones that can direct manpower, resources in the right direction over a long period of time.
An appropriate example for this is Defense Equipment of India—we were sleeping since Independence. We have nukes but can’t make rifles. We have satellites but don’t have our own jets. It’s not a democracy vs autocracy problem. European democracies, even Korea have achieved it. The institutions of these countries are robust and capable of achieving their goal. Ours are bragging about $1.5 Billion exports after 75 years of Independence. That’s half of our Basmati Rice exports.
China has these institutions in the form of ridiculously efficient governments that can plan and finish a project within 2 years. Almost entire Chinese high speed rail network we see today is built since 2008.
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I don’t believe Indian democracy can achieve such efficiency in current form.
Things have to change. We have to talk about a better form of governance which will actually strengthen our institutions and allow us to compete globally.
Want good roads? Good neighborhoods? Good rails?
Or the basic of basic, do we want to give justice to common man without letting him wait for 10 years?
Our institutions should be reformed along with our mode of governance. This is the need of the hour, more than any economic, foreign or trade policy. We cannot be okay with us not growing at China’s pace because we are a democracy. Steps have to be taken. Or else we’ll never win. In this world, Winner takes it all.
We may not have much voice nationally, but we can at least spark the talks on these issues.