Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Indx TechStyle]

But we do have "undisclosed" number of oil import from Iran already. Saudi increased the production seeing the Iran issue, but looks like sanction didnt gain traction so they may be cutting back..there could be other variables too.

I think the price will hold good even if Saudi pulls back the production.

But it still triggers the thoughts of long term. We need to put electric vehicles in place to cut down petrol. Otherwise, oil is going to ruin all our hardwork and our nominal GDP will remain a fraction of USA and PRC for decades.

 

[ezsasa]

But we do have "undisclosed" number of oil import from Iran already. Saudi increased the production seeing the Iran issue, but looks like sanction didnt gain traction so they may be cutting back..there could be other variables too.

I think the price will hold good even if Saudi pulls back the production.

Yup, and saudis also declared that they would want the oil price at 80.

Our guys have said they are ok up to 70$.

Trump has said, 60-70 would be a good price range.

 

[sorcerer]

But it still triggers the thoughts of long term. We need to put electric vehicles in place to cut down petrol. Otherwise, oil is going to ruin all our hardwork and our nominal GDP will remain a fraction of USA and PRC for decades.

The information I have is that, GoI has asked ONGC to dig up 25% oil from its own shores by 2022.
I agree we need to cut the dependence on oil.
Electric vehicles still have the recharging issues which aint gonna go away in a decades time.
Many companies are still confused on how to go about doing it. In a country like India, it will always be the test of extreme when it comes to adapting to a suitable model because of sheer number of vehicles on the road.

The transition to complete electric could go through hybrids and other advancements in fuel technology, both which the govt should promote by bringing down the price of such vehicles by incentives and other means than make it really FANCY BRAND or NAME to buy for a commoner.

 

[sorcerer]

Yup, and saudis also declared that they would want the oil price at 80.

Our guys have said they are ok up to 70$.

Trump has said, 60-70 would be a good price range.

My bet is on the consortium India formed with china and others.
OIL BUYERS CLUB or sort to oppose the OPEC and their cruel shrewd ways.
That will ensure that the OPEC behaves...and the oil price is reasonable at all times.

 

[indiatester]

But it still triggers the thoughts of long term. We need to put electric vehicles in place to cut down petrol. Otherwise, oil is going to ruin all our hardwork and our nominal GDP will remain a fraction of USA and PRC for decades.

I had posted this in the NGO thread. CORDAID thinks that NE India has more oil than Gulf and hence is supporting various groups to fight against the same.

There was one more seminar in Shillong, as a follow up in October 2013. Three trainers, two Dutch and an American reminded participants that oil reserves in the area were as large as large as those in the entire gulf and these belong only to the tribals of Manipur.

 

[aditya10r]

I had posted this in the NGO thread. CORDAID thinks that NE India has more oil than Gulf and hence is supporting various groups to fight against the same.

If that's a possibility then gormint should give it a try.

I don't give a shit if we can export oil,it should be enough for our growing domestic needs.

_________________________________________

 

[Indx TechStyle]

The key to India's growth story lies hidden in the Hindi heartland

Indian cities account for 63 per cent of the country’s GDP but all the major growth centres are in the west or south leaving a hole in the northern half of the country.

One day, king Sher Shah Suri who ruled the Gangetic plains in the mid-16th century, stood on the banks of the river Ganges keenly surveying the land around in what is today Bihar. After much reflection, Suri, who rebuilt the Grand Trunk Road from Kabul to Chittagong, said to those who were standing by: ``If a fort were to be built in this place, the waters of the Ganges could never flow far from it, and Patna would become one of the great towns of this country...’’ Suri immediately ordered work to be started on the site, and thus began the restoration of Pataliputra which had fallen to ruin, according to an account in India as described by Megasthenes.

The history of the great plains of north India is synonymous with cities; beginning with Pataliputra of the Maurya empire and ending with Calcutta of the East India company. Other cities such as Kannauj, Mithila, Prayag, Ujjain and Kapilavastu waxed and waned in prominence in the intervening period. Even in the early 20th century, apart from the bustling port city of Calcutta, Patna, Lucknow, Meerut and Kanpur served as economic accelerators, fostering enterprise and industry which kept the plains rich, prosperous and envied. Over time, these cities not only lost their relevance in the national scheme, but their decline also triggered a talent and capital drain from the region.

“There is a metropolis vacuum,’’ says Prateek Raj, professor at IIM Bangalore. As per the 1911 census, eight of the 20 largest cities in India (Lucknow, Banares, Kanpur, Agra, Allahabad, Patna, Bareilly and Meerut) were in the region. “But today it has no major metropolitan agglomeration to attract talent and investments,’’ he says.

According to Brookings’ Global Metro Monitor 2018, more than half the world’s population now lives in urban centres and the 300 biggest metropolitan economies in the world account for half of the global output. Employment and GDP grew at a faster rate between 2014 and 2016 in about 50 per cent of these metros compared to their home region.

Indian cities account for 63 per cent of the country’s GDP but all the major growth centres are in the west or south leaving a hole in the northern half of the country. In the past couple of decades, the main drivers of growth have also been the west and south. Although the National Capital Region of Delhi is a growth centre, its dominant character is of governance, not commerce. Besides, it is grossly insufficient as the only large metropolis north of peninsular India.

“The prosperous south and west have a relatively high per capita GDP and lower population growth, while the north and east have low per capita GDP and are still experiencing a demographic surge,’’ according to Nagarik, a new strategy report on employment generation by consultant PwC. Being home to nearly half a billion people most of whom are young, the northern region is critical to India realising its growth potential. PwC estimates that twothirds of the country’s workers live in 10 north and east Indian states and they would need about 80 per cent of new jobs.

After 2001 when the Indian economy hit the high notes, growth rate of those migrating for economic reasons rose from 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent even though growth rate of the workforce fell, according to the Economic Survey 2016-17 which studied internal migration patterns. Karnataka became a migrant magnet. Internal migration rates also surged in Tamil Nadu and Kerala reflecting the growing pull of southern states in India’s migration dynamics. Out-migration rates increased in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh; the last two accounting for more than half of the wanderers.

PwC says these states are caught up in a vicious cycle of lagging infrastructure which makes them unsuitable for large traditional employment-creating methods involving large-scale manufacturing plants, organised services, and IT and IT-enabled services. That makes this region unattractive for capital as well. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar washed up at the bottom of the National Council of Applied Economic Research’s state investment potential index, 2018, which ranks states for attractiveness and readiness to investment flows. McKinsey Global Institute estimated in 2012 that cities will need annual physical capital investment to double from $10 trillion to $20 trillion in 2025, the lion’s share of which will be in the emerging world.

“What we need is functioning economic cities,’’ says Jaijit Bhattacharya, president of Centre for Digital Economy Policy Research and adjunct professor at IIT Delhi. Bhattacharya, who, as head of economic and policy practice at KPMG, was deeply involved with the framing of the smart city mission, points out that Uttar Pradesh has 17 per cent of the country’s population but contributes just 2.5 per He says if India doesn’t plan and develop economic cities, it could have a situation of ghost cities like China. The cities should focus on delivering basic health, food, water, security and jobs. New Indian cities are often driven by engineers and consultants instead of economy, design and lifestyle. Often planning mimics that of western cities’. “We have to plan our way—parking for autorickshaws (absent in western cities), middle-of-the-road celebrations etc,’’ says Bhattacharya.

The most spectacular growth among Indian cities has been that of Bangalore. Prateek Raj points out that Bangalore was a minor town during the 1911 census but ranks at number three today. The primary reason for the somnolent retirees’ haven to transform into a bustling megapolis was the happy concentration of state-owned high technology organisations and high quality knowledge institutions there when the sun was rising over the information technology industry and allied businesses.

The presence of big state-owned entities such as Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd and Indian Space Research Organisation, top notch education establishments like the Indian Institute of Science and the Indian Institute of Management, and an open cultural environment combined with a new generation of entrepreneurs, cutting edge knowledge, and risk capital turned Bangalore into an urban agglomeration churning with ideas and innovations that sculpted a metropolis rivalling global peers.

None of this happened in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where once renowned educational institutions such as Patna University, Banaras Hindu University and Aligarh Muslim University remained the boiling cauldron of intense politics which often degenerated into communalism and casteism mixed up with violence. A dearth of capital, lack of innovation, endemic corruption and constant social strife slowly transformed once bustling business centres such as Aligarh, Meerut, Kanpur, Agra and Moradabad into industrial waste heaps.

PwC warns that unless the challenge of providing local employment opportunities in the northern and eastern states is tackled immediately, migration to the south and west will accelerate. If ignored, social strife that is on the increase in these states will continue. This could result in young citizens, who may be educated, often skilled, taking the law in their hands. IIM’s Prateek Raj shares that fear. “People not having hope for a better future create a fervent ground for anti-social behaviour, like lynching and vigilantism. The Hindi heartland needs a few major cities, to get out of this vicious circle,’’ he says.

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

That is wrong (with riders). You can/should invest the money in setting up a business which is useful way to the effort you spent in earning your money in the first place.
Accumulating either gold or forex should be limited to help your business activities.

Can you tell me how is investing in business possible with forex? India buys gold with forex. India will invest in Indian business in rupee. India gets lots of investment in terms of FDI which is converted to Rupee when entering India and the forex is deposited in Indian account. India can either choose to buy gold with this forex, buy companies in foreign countries or hoard them. Storing forex is wasteful. Investing in foreign companies is also wasteful as high technology companies are prohibited from foreign acquisition by govt of USA, UK etc (China tried to buy several pharma companies, electronic companies which USA vetoed) whereas buying low end foreign companies is wasteful as Indian companies produce those goods much cheaper. So we go with the option of buying gold. It is prudent to buy gold as it is almost guaranteed savings even going by history as far as available.

But it still triggers the thoughts of long term. We need to put electric vehicles in place to cut down petrol. Otherwise, oil is going to ruin all our hardwork and our nominal GDP will remain a fraction of USA and PRC for decades.

There is no long term. Shivaji did not have cars, Kauravas, Pandavas did not have motor vehicles. SO, the future will also be like that. EV is a joke. How will you get the raw material to make EV as transporting the materials need oil? How will you get electricity to charge EV, or Lithium to make batteries?

I had posted this in the NGO thread. CORDAID thinks that NE India has more oil than Gulf and hence is supporting various groups to fight against the same.

NE has Uranium, not oil. There is very little oil in Himalayan region which extends to NE mountains. The geology of Himalayas do not permit oil

 

[Indx TechStyle]

There is no long term. Shivaji did not have cars, Kauravas, Pandavas did not have motor vehicles. SO, the future will also be like that.

Can't be or world economy will be dead.

EV is a joke. How will you get the raw material to make EV as transporting the materials need oil? How will you get electricity to charge EV, or Lithium to make batteries?

Infrastructure again, petroleum based transportation has got entire infrastructure developed over decades. Doing same for electricity needs time. Yeah, initially it needs lot oil.

 

[sorcerer]

Jammu-Pak border might have oil & gas, says ONGC

However, its senior officials say their studies indicate chances of huge oil and gas reserves on the 100-km Bhimbargali-Naushera border belt in Jammu’s Poonch and Rajauri districts (confirmed by N K Verma, director, exploration), where oil exploration has become a major challenge for security reasons. It hasn’t been able to drill here; Pakistani troops fire regularly on Indian positions.

https://www.business-standard.com/a...s-reserves-on-j-k-borders-114020601108_1.html

Well!!!
Hearing the same from NE states.
Even if so, will be hush hush.

 

[AnantS]

India needs to invest in developing high capacity battery technologies other than Li Ion based. Why? Even in case of Li Ion batteries we will have to depend on outside countries esp China and Countries with Chinese Influence.

 

[indiatester]

NE has Uranium, not oil. There is very little oil in Himalayan region which extends to NE mountains. The geology of Himalayas do not permit oil

Heard of Digboi ?
Somehow foreign NGO's seem interested in that very little oil
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...-northeast-IB-report/articleshow/36513963.cms

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Can't be or world economy will be dead.

Infrastructure again, petroleum based transportation has got entire infrastructure developed over decades. Doing same for electricity needs time. Yeah, initially it needs lot oil.

The world economy will be dead as it was never meant to be like this in the first place. This is an artificial boom and only for short period of time.

It is not infrastructural strength of petroleum but the quality of energy provided by petroleum that made it popular. The important quality of fossil fuels is that they are stored form of solar energy from organic matter that was accumulated over millions of years. So, unlike batteries, these did not need to be charged. Unlike wood, these were already dry and flammable and present in concentrated form in large quantity whereas the amount of wood is limited and needs to be dried, transported from wide areas etc. Batteries simply don't cut it as they have to be charged, they are not naturally available and have to be made and replaced every few years.

Coal was found to be too hard and rock like to be able to transport well. So, liquid fuel was needed which was petroleum for mobility usage. Gas was found to be too difficult to store and needed heavy tanks and cooling.

You can find an alternative only if you can get appropriate quality fuel, not because you just hope so

 

[Arihant Roy]

Guys, I have a very naive question.

When will our economy surpass that of UK?

Militarily we are already leaps and bounds ahead of the UK. They only beat us in the no of SSN, SSBN and total no of nuke warheads.
In the years to come even the SSBN gap will be bridged.
Their armed forces have an expeditionary capability which is almost absent in our case but that is because our perceived adversaries share land borders with us.
We don't need to fight on foreign shores.


Excuse me fellas for posting it here but when I look at India vis a vis UK, it gives me immense pleasure to note that we have surpassed out colonial masters in most parameters.by which a great nation is judged .

Winston Churchill would have a heart attack followed by multiple organ failures had he been alive today. That two bit fucker.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Guys, I have a very naive question.

When will our economy surpass that of UK?

Militarily we are already leaps and bounds ahead of the UK. They only beat us in the no of SSN, SSBN and total no of nuke warheads.
In the years to come even the SSBN gap will be bridged.
Their armed forces have an expeditionary capability which is almost absent in our case but that is because our perceived adversaries share land borders with us.
We don't need to fight on foreign shores.


Excuse me fellas for posting it here but when I look at India vis a vis UK, it gives me immense pleasure to note that we have surpassed out colonial rulers in most parameters.

Right now, its a bit more or less. As both of are same size, comparison isn't needed.

India's economy is highly undervalued due to currency depreciation and MER. It's safe to assume the feat that we've surpassed, if not now, next or following year. Our focus should be on per capita income now.

 

[sorcerer]

India needs to invest in developing high capacity battery technologies other than Li Ion based. Why? Even in case of Li Ion batteries we will have to depend on outside countries esp China and Countries with Chinese Influence.

On that line I think ISRO has provided their battery tech to some EV companies in India a few months back

 

[ezsasa]

India needs to invest in developing high capacity battery technologies other than Li Ion based. Why? Even in case of Li Ion batteries we will have to depend on outside countries esp China and Countries with Chinese Influence.

ISRO will give ToT to 15 companies selected last month, on lithium ion batteries.

There was a MoU singed with Bolivia on lithium supply.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

The world economy will be dead as it was never meant to be like this in the first place. This is an artificial boom and only for short period of time.

Short period of time only if consumption or innovation stops.

I'm talking about rapid transportation, if it stops, everything will slowdown.
This dense transportation network that US & European economies function or why China & India were able to catch up in business.

Abusing world economy and technology as artificial will be luditic.

It is not infrastructural strength of petroleum but the quality of energy provided by petroleum that made it popular. The important quality of fossil fuels is that they are stored form of solar energy from organic matter that was accumulated over millions of years. So, unlike batteries, these did not need to be charged. Unlike wood, these were already dry and flammable and present in concentrated form in large quantity whereas the amount of wood is limited and needs to be dried, transported from wide areas etc.

They have chemical energy in them which we convert into thermal & kinetic for our use. Understanding & handling them is easier & the "blast" gives more power for same energy easily is only reason why its popular.

Bad things are emissions and they are exhaustible.

Batteries simply don't cut it as they have to be charged, they are not naturally available and have to be made and replaced every few years.

So, that's running away from handling.
No pains no gains. What will you do if you don't have petrol in future? Countries will have to use battery.

You can find an alternative only if you can get appropriate quality fuel, not because you just hope so

You know, by "infrastructure" I meant creating network for mainting electricity based transportation like petrol pumps where we could avail batteries like gas cylinders.
Obviously, infrastructure and arrangements can be made to make any project viable. Just because you need oil, don't hope that oil will never exhaust, stick to a better "sustainable" source.

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Heard of Digboi ?
Somehow foreign NGO's seem interested in that very little oil
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...-northeast-IB-report/articleshow/36513963.cms

DIgboi is almost depleted and had very little oil. It comes under the plains area, not under Himalayas. Also, NGOs are interested in sabotaging anything and everything, not just oil. But NE definitely does not have lot of oil. It has Uranium and some minerals but not oil

 

[aarav]

Guys, I have a very naive question.

When will our economy surpass that of UK?

Militarily we are already leaps and bounds ahead of the UK. They only beat us in the no of SSN, SSBN and total no of nuke warheads.
In the years to come even the SSBN gap will be bridged.
Their armed forces have an expeditionary capability which is almost absent in our case but that is because our perceived adversaries share land borders with us.
We don't need to fight on foreign shores.


Excuse me fellas for posting it here but when I look at India vis a vis UK, it gives me immense pleasure to note that we have surpassed out colonial masters in most parameters.by which a great nation is judged .

Winston Churchill would have a heart attack followed by multiple organ failures had he been alive today. That two bit fucker.

maybe the next quarter or the one after that we may surpass UK in nominal GDP ,militarily we may catch them next decade only ,they are ahead us technologically but there are many profound changes happening in UK. Brexit , it also projected that white brits may become minority in coming decades ,so yeah winston churchill would be turning in his grave.