Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[indus]

Central bank to ho hi raha hai, sbi bhi hoga
Is sahar me kewal haumara makan thode hi hai, aag lagegi to aapke ghar tak bhi jayegi

There was news that Govt wants all banks to be privatised except SBI.

 

[indiatester]

I remember black money was big issue in the early days of BJP back in 2015-16 it's nowhere to be heard all of a sudden.

You can see the reason in increasing GST collections and IT return filings.
All the means of creating black money (to avoid tax) are slowly being closed leading to more formalization of the economy.

 

[indiatester]

Porinju had tweeted this

FIIs sold ~$50 billion worth shares in 9 months,
Got payout in T+2 system.
Repatriated freely.
No trading restrictions, no payment crisis.
₹ remained stable, in fact, gained against £, €, ¥

 

[Kumata]

You can see the reason in increasing GST collections and IT return filings.
All the means of creating black money (to avoid tax) are slowly being closed leading to more formalization of the economy.

My assessment is that they have still not been able to bring in those outside tax net yet... Informal Economy specifically.. Those who were in net earlier anyways are getting milked more.... Simple.....i dont consider more people filling IT returns as a sign that black money holder r coming in.. It, 's mostly TDS Junta getting added to working classs.. Majority of shop keeper still show 10 workers being paid in cash.. when there r hardly 2 working in shop..

Will give u a very simple example... U will laugh when I say this but

The dhobhi cum car cleaner with his wife in my society earns enough that he travels in own car with his wife in these days of rains when he comes to iron clothes.. On top, he owns a royal Enfield also which they use when it's not raining.

His wife earns by cleaning people's houses or cooking...

No grudges with him but will we consider him poor or middle class.. All his income is in cash... No tax.. Zilch.

In metro, 's or cities.. Say AIIMS Or office spaces..... Just stand near a theli Wala or food truck guy and see how much that guy serves people in an hour.. U will be surprised...

 

[indiatester]

My assessment is that they have still not been able to bring in those outside tax net yet... Informal Economy specifically.. Those who were in net earlier anyways are getting milked more.... Simple.....i dont consider more people filling IT returns as a sign that black money holder r coming in.. It, 's mostly TDS Junta getting added to working classs.. Majority of shop keeper still show 10 workers being paid in cash.. when there r hardly 2 working in shop..

Will give u a very simple example... U will laugh when I say this but

The dhobhi cum car cleaner with his wife in my society earns enough that he travels in own car with his wife in these days of rains when he comes to iron clothes.. On top, he owns a royal Enfield also which they use when it's not raining.

His wife earns by cleaning people's houses or cooking...

No grudges with him but will we consider him poor or middle class.. All his income is in cash... No tax.. Zilch.

In metro, 's or cities.. Say AIIMS Or office spaces..... Just stand near a theli Wala or food truck guy and see how much that guy serves people in an hour.. U will be surprised...

True, its a long process, and ideally we should move towards no income tax.
Right now what is covered is ensuring that proper tax is collected from source to supplier with enough paper trail.

Love the story you narrated. Shows that even those at so called bottom of the pyramid are able to own aspirational products. I have seen similar ownership around me too!

 

[Shuturmurg]

Ya'll Nibbiars Jab tal politicians ka support hai nahi girega but will take massive loans instead.

View attachment 164909

Looks like Adani is to BJP, what Sahara was to Samajwadi Party, vehicle of funneling their black money to convert it into white.

 

[Arjun Mk1A]

Well Adani companies are invested in some evergreen fields but still they should try to reduce their debt and then expand their capabilities.

 

[Roshan]

 

[another_armchair]

external Government debt will be about 120 billion $ something, forex reserves are about 570 billion $ something. it's not an alarming situation. that's what RBI is for, to manage these things.

if something bad happens, it's modi's fault anyways. all angles covered.

Repayment of private, corporate debt will put pressure on the INR too. When forex reserves dwindle because of a drop in our currency, precious metals assets, then it deals a double blow to our forex kitty.

India's foreign exchange reserves drop $7.5 billion to $572.7 billion

Foreign exchange reserves depleted around $70 billion from its peak in September 2021

www.business-standard.com

The decline in foreign exchange reserves during the week is mainly due to foreign currency assets that were down $6.5 billion, the data showed.

This may last a few months but do you foresee the INR going back to say 60 to a dollar?

When every increase in our forex reserves was cheered, should it not be a cause for concern when outflows force the RBI to sell USD from its reserves to keep the currency stable?
RBI has poured in over 40 billion dollars in the recent past yet demand for dollars refuses to die down.

If all was 'changa si', they wouldn't hastily come up with INR based trade offers.

Nobody is blaming Modi, but our fundamentals are a little messed up somewhere and the same is reflecting in our currency or maybe the Govt. and RBI want it to settle higher so every dollar that comes in transforms into more rupees, but that's a double edged knife which will cut both ways.

 

[ezsasa]

Repayment of private, corporate debt will put pressure on the INR too. When forex reserves dwindle because of a drop in our currency, precious metals assets, then it deals a double blow to our forex kitty.

India's foreign exchange reserves drop $7.5 billion to $572.7 billion

Foreign exchange reserves depleted around $70 billion from its peak in September 2021

www.business-standard.com

This may last a few months but do you foresee the INR going back to say 60 to a dollar?

When every increase in our forex reserves was cheered, should it not be a cause for concern when outflows force the RBI to sell USD from its reserves to keep the currency stable?
RBI has poured in over 40 billion dollars in the recent past yet demand for dollars refuses to die down.

If all was 'changa si', they wouldn't hastily come up with INR based trade offers.

Nobody is blaming Modi, but our fundamentals are a little messed up somewhere and the same is reflecting in our currency or maybe the Govt. and RBI want it to settle higher so every dollar that comes in transforms into more rupees, but that's a double edged knife which will cut both ways.

There's only one way INR can come down, that is by exporting more than imports. in this volatile global economic scenario, little chance in medium term.

 

[IndianHawk]

In next decade india will similarly leapfrog across various technologies and sectors.

India is undergoing a technological renessanec. People blinded by the past can't see the change happening before there eyes.

 

[another_armchair]

There's only one way INR can come down, that is by exporting more than imports. in this volatile global economic scenario, little chance in medium term.

That's a fundamental problem no government has been able to fully address.

Not likely in the next decade too despite the best intentions of our current government.

 

[ezsasa]

That's a fundamental problem no government has been able to fully address.

it's the private sector that needs to address this, govts can only facilitate.

 

[Roshan]

There's only one way INR can come down, that is by exporting more than imports. in this volatile global economic scenario, little chance in medium term.

What would it have taken to maintain the rupee at 2014 levels, or thereabouts at least?

 

[IndianHawk]

Repayment of private, corporate debt will put pressure on the INR too. When forex reserves dwindle because of a drop in our currency, precious metals assets, then it deals a double blow to our forex kitty.

India's foreign exchange reserves drop $7.5 billion to $572.7 billion

Foreign exchange reserves depleted around $70 billion from its peak in September 2021

www.business-standard.com

This may last a few months but do you foresee the INR going back to say 60 to a dollar?

When every increase in our forex reserves was cheered, should it not be a cause for concern when outflows force the RBI to sell USD from its reserves to keep the currency stable?
RBI has poured in over 40 billion dollars in the recent past yet demand for dollars refuses to die down.

If all was 'changa si', they wouldn't hastily come up with INR based trade offers.

Nobody is blaming Modi, but our fundamentals are a little messed up somewhere and the same is reflecting in our currency or maybe the Govt. and RBI want it to settle higher so every dollar that comes in transforms into more rupees, but that's a double edged knife which will cut both ways.

RBI build those forex reserves to handle current account deficits. They are not a showpiece.

USA has been flooding the world with cheap dollars to prop up its fake GDP growth numbers and this was to end sooner or later. RBI knew it and prepared for it by hoarding dollars. Lessons learnt from 2013 tepar tantrums.

Now in USA and Europe inflation is too high and monetary tightening will lead to massive recession after which they will be printing more dollars again to prop up growth again. ( There economies have zero growth unless free dollars are thrown at it). And RBI will hoard dollars again in preperation for next inflation tightening cycle.

Rinse repeat .

 

[nongaddarliberal]

Seems like he was born in such a place and is now releasing his frustration in his every post, have travelled across many cities and may I ask which part if them look like “over glorified slums”.

And now don’t say “YoU aRe sHoWiNg pOsH aReAs aNd sOmE goOd aReAs”, because these are not.

Yes cleanliness and lack of planning remains an issue in Indian cities but over exaggerating stuff won’t give you brownie points. Things indeed get messy in a lot of areas but its okay, you can’t have everything in order.

Have to somewhat disagree with both posts here. Yes, it's not fair to call all Indian cities as over glorified slums, as we do have sections of cities that look decent. But there is a serious problem. The vast majority of our modern buildings and houses look ugly. Plain box like cement structures with ruined paint after a single monsoon. Most normal neighborhoods in India have a very third world drab look. Posters and ugly signboard everywhere, uneven streets, ugly shops. Most places don't have any decent pavements, and if they do, there are parked motorcycles and stalls placed everywhere. Overall our cities and architecture could be so much better.

 

[another_armchair]

What would it have taken to maintain the rupee at 2014 levels, or thereabouts at least?

Selling dollars and intervening in the currency markets definitely won't take the rupee up.

 

[IndianHawk]

What would it have taken to maintain the rupee at 2014 levels, or thereabouts at least?

Structural issues !
We need to be in surplus in trade consistently . But our economic model currently is driven more by consumption.
So will take long time . Manufacturing growth may do it faster.

 

[Shuturmurg]

Structural issues !
We need to be in surplus in trade consistently . But our economic model currently is driven more by consumption.
So will take long time . Manufacturing growth may do it faster.

Also, we are poor in oil and gas resources. So, we will always have to import those and we need to have surplus trade in other items to cover for that.

Another item that we import a lot is gold. If we can somehow do some cultural changes to gift aluminum, iron or zinc jewellery (we have lots of deposit of those 3) in wedding , we will save lots on import

 

[FalconSlayers]

Most of our imports are of energy so there’s little we can do about it except for improving renewable electricity generation in India and electrifying transportation in India.