Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Indx TechStyle]

India just announced its October-December GDP figures, supposedly showing it is still the fastest-growing major economy. You should not believe it. Every quarter there are questions about India’s GDP, with this one no exception. But there is a bigger problem: India refuses to publish the full GDP series, so that the world may not be able to trust the Indian government’s claims at all.

First pick up year, when growth restoration ( this is similar growth which India sustained for more than a decade before economic crisis, I can't understand why people can't digest it), most indicators didn't soar.
They called it fudged.


Following year, manufacturing growth again touched high, exports fall was arrested (highlighted because you can't call it fudged in any way), India surpassed China & US as world's largest FDI Destination (how much trust people do have, enough to say), consumption again up in double digits but sectors which didn't score nice were mining, agriculture (not nice against India's, growth, okay otherwise),
Besides manufacturing, sluggish pick up for industrial growth rate and defying foreign boasting about Indian industrial growth rate and honestly put a poor IIP (Index of Industrial Production, that's how India measures it's industry).
Some morons were claiming, India's container value didn't grew as fast as China's (case is different that India's container hub had reached capacity :biggrin2

Following year,

Agricultural sector picks up to 6% (and share of population in agro activities actually declined), manufacturing to 8%, mining picks up close to others which was negative previous year (India has started eyeing mining rare earth metals), unemployment rate halved, exports shown positive growth, Indian exports to China 42% up, well being of citizens score up (still keep claiming India is growing for industrialists), imports again up post demonetization which is ultimate sign to say how much of consumption has been affected, centres of foreign companies in India outshined revenues of their mother brands/OEMs

Or India was able to have budget to make 18 kilometres of roads everyday, inaugurating a couple of new metro systems, world's longest bridge or highest railway, or conducting 7 orbital and 2 additional suborbital launches, officially doubled solar parks target, giving debt to other countries, making a SOSUS network and reduced stent pricing by 85%!

How could India afford that all?
How could India's nominal expenditure could reach $700 billions against previous year's $570 billions?

Even this upcoming year, government has dismissed private consortia's investments for commercial semiconductor plants and will do it itself (needs around $100 billions investment, enough to say how much confidence government has on it's stats) and again boosting up the road construction target with more budget. I don't guess they'll even think of it without money.
I'm not going to digest that FDI can help government to increase budget by this much. Without economic growth, such increments in budget are impossible simply.

Economic growth should be measured by personal or household income. Instead it is measured by GDP, an accounting tool far more relevant for top-down planners than ordinary people. This is hardly India’s fault, but India has done a small bit to make the problem worse.

Intelligent breed, GDP growth is called GDP growth and always measured by GDP growth!
Household Income is a different thing, used to measure well being of citizens and I think you must not be watching it here, it may be more unbelievable for you than our GDP growth rate!
:huh:
Well, even when end of last decade, India was growing at a similar growth, it pulled 9 million (around 8%) people out of poverty in just 2 years and that even actually at 2005-6 MER. At new MER, it was around 200 millions and left at just 12%.
That 12% (at 2011-12 MER which was 21% at 2005-6 considerations) because India shifted it's poverty line up.:biggrin2:
Otherwise, it was left 7.7% at previous poverty line in 2011. And 6 years have passed since then.

In January 2015 India revised recent GDP growth figures higher, among other things raising the fiscal year 2013-4 gain from 5% all the way to 6.9%. It is at this point the fastest-growing economy boasts began. Questions about the revision were raised immediately, including by current Indian government officials, because purportedly faster GDP did not fit with many other indicators.

Explained above.

(It still does not.)

It does this year, stop spewing anything without reading.

Since then, however, the new series has become widely used. While the Indian government argues that it better matches global practices, it manifestly fails to do so in an indispensable respect. The back series – the necessary base for calculations of ongoing GDP growth – has not been published more than 2 years later. Technically, we do not know India’s GDP in 2010, or anytime earlier.

Really not. Indian GDP numbers are available in terms of ₹. India doesn't measure it in $.

Depends on you now, you calculate it on 2001-02 MER, 2005-06 MER or directly 2009-10 MER, where you'll have to adjust currency value along with inflation or deflation factor. That was actually not well being times when other sectors expanding at double digits, agriculture remained strangent then, the previous one was urban poverty alleviation, this one is rural.


And why so surprised?
India had 4-5% only around the time of economic crisis (2011-14).
Besides that, in last decade, India's growth has never gone below 7.5%. It used to double real GDP in every 5-6 years like China, if anything put it behind was currency de appreciation and lack of inflation.
Why? For Modi baiting?

The back series was first to be published December 2015, then mid-2016, and now has no apparent due date and will not be complete. The “globally accepted” new approach therefore makes it impossible to assess India’s GDP trajectory, potentially important information for a country aspiring to rapid development.

You're able to get it in ruppees and it's normal growth as that of previous decade.

Rest you have any doubt, HDI reports every year or next numbers for poverty ratio may be okay for you.

The best way to proceed in this case was to start from the beginning, applying the new method to a base year as far in the past as possible and generating new data forward from there. The obvious question is how India determined growth when earlier years could not serve as a base? The answer is unfortunately political: the government’s desire to report faster growth trumped accuracy.

Year 2021, India precisely counts it's population and economy at that time.

It all may sound familiar. India seemingly always has an eye on China. If China pulled a stunt like this, its “world-beating” claims would be roundly ridiculed.

Roundly riddiculed? Little attention has been given to Chinese data fudging. Even today they got to do it because India entered the room. As per your agencies, China has been growing at 3% at best in terms of unmassaged data but no loud drum beating about them against what you do claiming that India is 6.5% and not 7.1%.

https://thewire.in/88239/china-economic-mirace-debt/

http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/chinas-gdp-growth-slow-and-slower/

China's FDI is going down, China's Forex reserves are down while India is selling them itself cuz they're growing too fast, enough to say who is faster.

There are other, crucial statistics practices, for example concerning rural electrification, that are clearly biased in the government’s favor.

I'm pretty sure that you didn't even bother to read numbers by Minustry of Statistics and calling them fudgers.

Because Rural Electrification is one of few factors where government is running well behind scheduled target.

The central government is willing to offer such detail as revisions to the initial advanced estimates for future GDP growth. We obviously do not have measurements for the future yet, yet the government can generate a figure. What it cannot do is generate GDP for the past, when all measurements have been completed.

What? Ever heard of IMF? WB? PWC?
Future GDPs are estimated GDP given current growth outlook. Government hasn't prepared booklets to publish them.

PS, India's final figures are always behind government's projections and few other agencies like IMF & WB while outshines PWC.

The GDP revision is a complex matter and the government has sound responses to some criticisms. But this part is simple: if you cannot even apply your own methodology to the past, why should anyone believe you canapply it properly to the present and future?

Oh! So, you were askin about numbers based for consumption? Will be released soon. Don't worry. But now don't declare it unadopted.

The government is annoyed with ratings agencies for failing to see India’s progress. It should look in the mirror and properly document a basic element of that progress.

That's for stats based on debt, business opportunities & deficit which India patches up by FDI til it manages to bring them down.
Rating agencies number create inconfidence and may affect FDI inflow.
So, I would have done same if I was at their (government's) place.

For now, however, India has the same level of economic credibility as a country like Vietnam (which publishes GDP results even before the year ends).

How much Vietnam has done and translated to well being of citizens in a short period is enough to explain it's growth.

Let me add, a lot of India's economy is undocumented which is now been documented after demonetization showing a sudden increase.
India is unlike "some countries" who don't even know what's their actual population, depend on foreign agencies for estimating their socio economic indicators and declare themselves richer than India when half of their urban population lives in slums.

Funny to see they see so much credibility in their statistics which was estimated 3.1% against official 4.5% and their farmers were found in free fall condition.:bounce:

Or maybe poorly founded quasi-propaganda.

Why can't I call your article a propaganda to attract investment back to west?

 

[Neo]

Pretty much the kind of replies I expected.

India is the only major economy where every quarterly report is met with sceptism from home and abroad. Ofcourse those analysts are commies, congies or simply jealous.

I would rather stick to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan's reasoning than a bunch of internet warriors. Anyways, it was fun seeing those replies.

Here's Raghuram's article, enjoy:

Why Raghuram Rajan doesn’t trust India’s GDP numbers
Firstpost • Jan 29, 2016 11:40 IST

By Dinesh Unnikrishnan



Every other economist you talk to would caution you to take India’s GDP (gross domestic product) numbers with a pinch of salt. That has been so for a year since the Narendra Modi government introduced new measure to count the GDP (based on Gross Value Added (GVA) method instead of the earlier one based on factor cost) and changed the base year of GDP calculation to 2011-12 from 2004-05. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has now joined this group, raising questions about the GDP numbers.

“There are problems with the way we count GDP, which is why we need to be careful sometimes just talking about growth," Rajan on Thursday said in his address at the 13th convocation at Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research.

The new method of GDP instantly lifted the country’s GDP growth to 7.3 percent in fiscal year 2015 compared with 5.5 per cent under the old series. For the Modi government, the higher GDP number was euphoric to support its claims that the economy has indeed turned the corner to the high-growth trajectory, becoming world's fastest growing major economy even beating China’s growth rate (though the size of Chinese economy is five times more than that of India.)

But the 'skeptics', who would hesitate to go with the Modi camp’s euphoria, kept cautioning about the protruding disconnect between the new set of GDP numbers and high frequency macro-economic indicators in the economy. These included bank credit growth, corporate performance, auto sales, factory output and growth in the manufacturing sector that should ideally correlate with the GDP figure. Even while accepting that the fresh GDP calculation methodology is in line with international practice, they questioned the actual growth rate of the economy and the picture depicted by the new set of numbers.

To explain his argument, Rajan took the example of two mothers who babysit each other's child instead of their own and exchange money as charges. "There is a rise in economic activity as each pays the other, but the net effect on the economy is questionable," said Rajan. “We should be careful about how we count. Obviously lots of people have thought how to improve our counting of GDP and going forward that is something that we will have to think about," the governor added.

The comments, coming from a world-renowned economist and the head of country’s central bank, are indeed serious enough and should be taken note by the Modi-government. The fact is that there are serious concerns on growth on the ground. There are a few reasons that tell us why the high GDP numbers aren't mirroring the actual situation on ground.

One, a highly stressed banking sector and tepid credit growth do not reflect a fast growing, strong economy.

Total stressed assets (bad and restructured assets) in the banking sector has risen to 12 per cent of the total bank loans, while gross NPAs of the banking sector, as a percentage of total loans, could reach 5.4% by September 2016, according to the RBI's financial stability report (FSR) from 5.1% in September 2015.

Clearly, the health of the banking sector doesn’t look good so far. This is also indicated by the December quarter earnings of ICICI bank, which has reported a spike in gross NPAs to 4.72 per cent from 3.77 per cent in the preceding quarter, indicating that bad loan worries aren't over for the industry yet.

Stress in the banking sector has resulted in lower credit flow to productive sectors. Going by the latest RBI data, bank lending to industries has grown by 4.6 percent in the 12 months till October 2015 compared with 7.8 percent in the corresponding period in the previous year. In the March-October period of the current fiscal year, credit growth to industries has languished at negative 0.3 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the previous year. The worst hit has been medium-sized companies, where bank lending has contracted by 10.9 percent as against a contraction of 1.1 per cent in the same period last year. According to analysts, there is more pain left in the banking sector as a significant chunk of the restructured assets will turn bad in the absence of major pick up in the economic scenario.

Two, manufacturing growth has been tepid. The tepid growth in factory output, also reflected in the core sector growth (fell 1.3 percent in November) and monthly PMI data (to 49.1 from 50.3 in November) indicate that revival in manufacturing activity has remained elusive.

The growth in the manufacturing sector till November this fiscal year has averaged at 3.9 per cent compared with 2.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, which signals some improvement in the economy but not a sharp jump.

The sharp contraction in the November IIP number to a four-year low of negative 3.2 percent, (though partly due to seasonal factors) a visible drop in capital goods production and sequential contraction in most of the manufactured products sub-components have raised doubts among economists on the durability of the recent robustness in the industrial output.

Three, corporate earnings have been muted so far and hasn’t shown any significant revival yet. This is evident from the profit and revenues growth of companies reported earnings in the September quarter and those companies reported earnings so far in the December quarter stood. The over-leveraged corporates are experiencing further pressure on their cash flows on account of prolonged economic slowdown.

A recent note from rating agency Crisil forecast corporate earnings to grow by mere 2 percent in the three months ending December compared with 5 percent in the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year on account of plunging commodity prices coupled with weak investments in the economy.

Four, although there is an improvement in the car sales in recent quarters, the two-wheeler sales have tumbled. In the December quarter, the two-wheeler sales have shown a decline. This indicates tepid consumer demand. Five, rural demand continues to be weak as evident from the earnings of companies like HUL, which were below analysts' expectations with a 22 per cent decline in net profit at Rs 971 crore in the third quarter ended December 31, 2015, as compared to Rs 1,252 crore in the corresponding three months of the previous fiscal.

Sixth, India has been facing massive contraction on the export-front. The country’s exports have shrunk for the 13 consecutive month in a row. It fell by 18% during April-December 2015 from the same period year ago.

As Firstpost has noted before, one of the major factors that benefited the Modi government in the past year was the crash in oil prices, which helped lessen the burden on import bill and the inflation. But, except this, there has not been any marked improvement in the growth triggers in the domestic market regardless of what the GDP number shows.

This is probably the reason that prompted Rajan to question the new methodology to calculate the GDP numbers. Clearly, it is time for the Modi government to pay attention to the 'skeptics' and look at the economy in a more realistic manner.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Pretty much the kind of replies I expected.

India is the only major economy where every quarterly report is met with sceptism from home and abroad. Ofcourse those analysts are commies, congies or simply jealous.

I would rather stick to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan's reasoning than a bunch of internet warriors. Anyways, it was fun seeing those replies.

Here's Raghuram's article, enjoy:

Why Raghuram Rajan doesn’t trust India’s GDP numbers
Firstpost • Jan 29, 2016 11:40 IST

By Dinesh Unnikrishnan



Every other economist you talk to would caution you to take India’s GDP (gross domestic product) numbers with a pinch of salt. That has been so for a year since the Narendra Modi government introduced new measure to count the GDP (based on Gross Value Added (GVA) method instead of the earlier one based on factor cost) and changed the base year of GDP calculation to 2011-12 from 2004-05. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has now joined this group, raising questions about the GDP numbers.

“There are problems with the way we count GDP, which is why we need to be careful sometimes just talking about growth," Rajan on Thursday said in his address at the 13th convocation at Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research.

The new method of GDP instantly lifted the country’s GDP growth to 7.3 percent in fiscal year 2015 compared with 5.5 per cent under the old series. For the Modi government, the higher GDP number was euphoric to support its claims that the economy has indeed turned the corner to the high-growth trajectory, becoming world's fastest growing major economy even beating China’s growth rate (though the size of Chinese economy is five times more than that of India.)

But the 'skeptics', who would hesitate to go with the Modi camp’s euphoria, kept cautioning about the protruding disconnect between the new set of GDP numbers and high frequency macro-economic indicators in the economy. These included bank credit growth, corporate performance, auto sales, factory output and growth in the manufacturing sector that should ideally correlate with the GDP figure. Even while accepting that the fresh GDP calculation methodology is in line with international practice, they questioned the actual growth rate of the economy and the picture depicted by the new set of numbers.

To explain his argument, Rajan took the example of two mothers who babysit each other's child instead of their own and exchange money as charges. "There is a rise in economic activity as each pays the other, but the net effect on the economy is questionable," said Rajan. “We should be careful about how we count. Obviously lots of people have thought how to improve our counting of GDP and going forward that is something that we will have to think about," the governor added.

The comments, coming from a world-renowned economist and the head of country’s central bank, are indeed serious enough and should be taken note by the Modi-government. The fact is that there are serious concerns on growth on the ground. There are a few reasons that tell us why the high GDP numbers aren't mirroring the actual situation on ground.

One, a highly stressed banking sector and tepid credit growth do not reflect a fast growing, strong economy.

Total stressed assets (bad and restructured assets) in the banking sector has risen to 12 per cent of the total bank loans, while gross NPAs of the banking sector, as a percentage of total loans, could reach 5.4% by September 2016, according to the RBI's financial stability report (FSR) from 5.1% in September 2015.

Clearly, the health of the banking sector doesn’t look good so far. This is also indicated by the December quarter earnings of ICICI bank, which has reported a spike in gross NPAs to 4.72 per cent from 3.77 per cent in the preceding quarter, indicating that bad loan worries aren't over for the industry yet.

Stress in the banking sector has resulted in lower credit flow to productive sectors. Going by the latest RBI data, bank lending to industries has grown by 4.6 percent in the 12 months till October 2015 compared with 7.8 percent in the corresponding period in the previous year. In the March-October period of the current fiscal year, credit growth to industries has languished at negative 0.3 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the previous year. The worst hit has been medium-sized companies, where bank lending has contracted by 10.9 percent as against a contraction of 1.1 per cent in the same period last year. According to analysts, there is more pain left in the banking sector as a significant chunk of the restructured assets will turn bad in the absence of major pick up in the economic scenario.

Two, manufacturing growth has been tepid. The tepid growth in factory output, also reflected in the core sector growth (fell 1.3 percent in November) and monthly PMI data (to 49.1 from 50.3 in November) indicate that revival in manufacturing activity has remained elusive.

The growth in the manufacturing sector till November this fiscal year has averaged at 3.9 per cent compared with 2.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, which signals some improvement in the economy but not a sharp jump.

The sharp contraction in the November IIP number to a four-year low of negative 3.2 percent, (though partly due to seasonal factors) a visible drop in capital goods production and sequential contraction in most of the manufactured products sub-components have raised doubts among economists on the durability of the recent robustness in the industrial output.

Three, corporate earnings have been muted so far and hasn’t shown any significant revival yet. This is evident from the profit and revenues growth of companies reported earnings in the September quarter and those companies reported earnings so far in the December quarter stood. The over-leveraged corporates are experiencing further pressure on their cash flows on account of prolonged economic slowdown.

A recent note from rating agency Crisil forecast corporate earnings to grow by mere 2 percent in the three months ending December compared with 5 percent in the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year on account of plunging commodity prices coupled with weak investments in the economy.

Four, although there is an improvement in the car sales in recent quarters, the two-wheeler sales have tumbled. In the December quarter, the two-wheeler sales have shown a decline. This indicates tepid consumer demand. Five, rural demand continues to be weak as evident from the earnings of companies like HUL, which were below analysts' expectations with a 22 per cent decline in net profit at Rs 971 crore in the third quarter ended December 31, 2015, as compared to Rs 1,252 crore in the corresponding three months of the previous fiscal.

Sixth, India has been facing massive contraction on the export-front. The country’s exports have shrunk for the 13 consecutive month in a row. It fell by 18% during April-December 2015 from the same period year ago.

As Firstpost has noted before, one of the major factors that benefited the Modi government in the past year was the crash in oil prices, which helped lessen the burden on import bill and the inflation. But, except this, there has not been any marked improvement in the growth triggers in the domestic market regardless of what the GDP number shows.

This is probably the reason that prompted Rajan to question the new methodology to calculate the GDP numbers. Clearly, it is time for the Modi government to pay attention to the 'skeptics' and look at the economy in a more realistic manner.

Again, all indicators aren't up in initial pick up years of growth.

Half of Rajan's concerns have been taken care of this year, specially banks & imports,

Rest is being taken care of budget!

Probably Indian Economy isn't growing and additional $130 billions budgets dropped from sky this year!

China was even worse with a debt fueled growth & inflated economy now having fun with 280% of GDP's external debt.
Again, a Pakistani addressing Indians for data fudging?
Do you know that you don't have even complete data & there are much bigger fudges & issues which I have posted in Pakistan Economy section.

 

[Bornubus]

Pretty much the kind of replies I expected.

India is the only major economy where every quarterly report is met with sceptism from home and abroad. Ofcourse those analysts are commies, congies or simply jealous.

I would rather stick to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan's reasoning than a bunch of internet warriors. Anyways, it was fun seeing those replies.

Here's Raghuram's article, enjoy:

Why Raghuram Rajan doesn’t trust India’s GDP numbers
Firstpost • Jan 29, 2016 11:40 IST

By Dinesh Unnikrishnan



Every other economist you talk to would caution you to take India’s GDP (gross domestic product) numbers with a pinch of salt. That has been so for a year since the Narendra Modi government introduced new measure to count the GDP (based on Gross Value Added (GVA) method instead of the earlier one based on factor cost) and changed the base year of GDP calculation to 2011-12 from 2004-05. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has now joined this group, raising questions about the GDP numbers.

“There are problems with the way we count GDP, which is why we need to be careful sometimes just talking about growth," Rajan on Thursday said in his address at the 13th convocation at Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research.

The new method of GDP instantly lifted the country’s GDP growth to 7.3 percent in fiscal year 2015 compared with 5.5 per cent under the old series. For the Modi government, the higher GDP number was euphoric to support its claims that the economy has indeed turned the corner to the high-growth trajectory, becoming world's fastest growing major economy even beating China’s growth rate (though the size of Chinese economy is five times more than that of India.)

But the 'skeptics', who would hesitate to go with the Modi camp’s euphoria, kept cautioning about the protruding disconnect between the new set of GDP numbers and high frequency macro-economic indicators in the economy. These included bank credit growth, corporate performance, auto sales, factory output and growth in the manufacturing sector that should ideally correlate with the GDP figure. Even while accepting that the fresh GDP calculation methodology is in line with international practice, they questioned the actual growth rate of the economy and the picture depicted by the new set of numbers.

To explain his argument, Rajan took the example of two mothers who babysit each other's child instead of their own and exchange money as charges. "There is a rise in economic activity as each pays the other, but the net effect on the economy is questionable," said Rajan. “We should be careful about how we count. Obviously lots of people have thought how to improve our counting of GDP and going forward that is something that we will have to think about," the governor added.

The comments, coming from a world-renowned economist and the head of country’s central bank, are indeed serious enough and should be taken note by the Modi-government. The fact is that there are serious concerns on growth on the ground. There are a few reasons that tell us why the high GDP numbers aren't mirroring the actual situation on ground.

One, a highly stressed banking sector and tepid credit growth do not reflect a fast growing, strong economy.

Total stressed assets (bad and restructured assets) in the banking sector has risen to 12 per cent of the total bank loans, while gross NPAs of the banking sector, as a percentage of total loans, could reach 5.4% by September 2016, according to the RBI's financial stability report (FSR) from 5.1% in September 2015.

Clearly, the health of the banking sector doesn’t look good so far. This is also indicated by the December quarter earnings of ICICI bank, which has reported a spike in gross NPAs to 4.72 per cent from 3.77 per cent in the preceding quarter, indicating that bad loan worries aren't over for the industry yet.

Stress in the banking sector has resulted in lower credit flow to productive sectors. Going by the latest RBI data, bank lending to industries has grown by 4.6 percent in the 12 months till October 2015 compared with 7.8 percent in the corresponding period in the previous year. In the March-October period of the current fiscal year, credit growth to industries has languished at negative 0.3 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the previous year. The worst hit has been medium-sized companies, where bank lending has contracted by 10.9 percent as against a contraction of 1.1 per cent in the same period last year. According to analysts, there is more pain left in the banking sector as a significant chunk of the restructured assets will turn bad in the absence of major pick up in the economic scenario.

Two, manufacturing growth has been tepid. The tepid growth in factory output, also reflected in the core sector growth (fell 1.3 percent in November) and monthly PMI data (to 49.1 from 50.3 in November) indicate that revival in manufacturing activity has remained elusive.

The growth in the manufacturing sector till November this fiscal year has averaged at 3.9 per cent compared with 2.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, which signals some improvement in the economy but not a sharp jump.

The sharp contraction in the November IIP number to a four-year low of negative 3.2 percent, (though partly due to seasonal factors) a visible drop in capital goods production and sequential contraction in most of the manufactured products sub-components have raised doubts among economists on the durability of the recent robustness in the industrial output.

Three, corporate earnings have been muted so far and hasn’t shown any significant revival yet. This is evident from the profit and revenues growth of companies reported earnings in the September quarter and those companies reported earnings so far in the December quarter stood. The over-leveraged corporates are experiencing further pressure on their cash flows on account of prolonged economic slowdown.

A recent note from rating agency Crisil forecast corporate earnings to grow by mere 2 percent in the three months ending December compared with 5 percent in the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year on account of plunging commodity prices coupled with weak investments in the economy.

Four, although there is an improvement in the car sales in recent quarters, the two-wheeler sales have tumbled. In the December quarter, the two-wheeler sales have shown a decline. This indicates tepid consumer demand. Five, rural demand continues to be weak as evident from the earnings of companies like HUL, which were below analysts' expectations with a 22 per cent decline in net profit at Rs 971 crore in the third quarter ended December 31, 2015, as compared to Rs 1,252 crore in the corresponding three months of the previous fiscal.

Sixth, India has been facing massive contraction on the export-front. The country’s exports have shrunk for the 13 consecutive month in a row. It fell by 18% during April-December 2015 from the same period year ago.

As Firstpost has noted before, one of the major factors that benefited the Modi government in the past year was the crash in oil prices, which helped lessen the burden on import bill and the inflation. But, except this, there has not been any marked improvement in the growth triggers in the domestic market regardless of what the GDP number shows.

This is probably the reason that prompted Rajan to question the new methodology to calculate the GDP numbers. Clearly, it is time for the Modi government to pay attention to the 'skeptics' and look at the economy in a more realistic manner.

Tu apni bata porki tere upar kitna debt hai. I have heard every Porki has a debt of 3 lakh.


Kidney or liver bechna padega Porki

 

[Neo]

Why is your ego hurt @Indx TechStyle
if I, a Pakistani posted two critical reports? Did a Pakistani write them in the first place?

Desperate to kill the messenger, drag Pakistan into it so you and your fellow trolls can have fun and forget about the issues and facts challenged by both analysts.

Grow up and accept criticism with dignity like most major economies do.

 

[F-14B]

Why is your ego hurt if I, a Pakistani posted two critical reports? Did a Pakistani write them in the first place?

Desperate to kill the messenger, drag Pakistan into it so you and your fellow trolls can have fun and forget about the issues and facts challenged by both analysts.

Grow up and accept criticism with dignity like most major economies do.

No why we were miffed jester is because
The first one was some dogshit website called World Socialist Website pound seriously???? and to what rajan said to qoute @IndxTechStyle

Half of Rajan's concerns have been taken care of this year, specially banks & imports,[\QUOTE]

But what i found real funny of you saying us to grow up Really @Neo look at the diffrence dear and ho by the way please grow up

 

[Tarun Kumar]

The base year ideally should have changed in 2020 not 2015. But even then, estimation bias factoring in all conservative factors by neutral agencies (including international rating agencies) put economic growth only 0.5% below Government estimate. Compare that with Pakistan where even IMF does not trust growth figures. Bulk of reserves of Pakistan it turns out are loans and not really reserves. On top of that while Paki government initially said that CPEC was an FDI investment, now we are hearing that it is mostly loan with eye popping 18% guaranteed rate of return offered.Bottom line is that 7% or 7.5% growth we are on track to be a USD15-20 Trillion economy by 2040. Pakistan by even most conservative estimates will barely cross a trillion somewhere after 2050 with a population only one fifth of India. Basically an average Indian will be 4-5 times richer than an average Paki by 2050.Moreover we an avg Indian is already 1.5 times richer than an average Paki (figures were inverse in the 60s). This tell you how far Paki really are. They are a disgrace, they don't belong in that land of Gandhara culture where creativity bloomed when it was not Muslim. it is better if all of them pack up and go back to central asia and arabia where they belong.

 

[sthf]

Missed the damn conversation train.

 

[Prashant12]

Indian economy to grow 7.1%: Global rating agency Fitch

Global rating agency Fitch today said, Indian economy will grow by 7.1 per cent in the current fiscal before stepping up to 7.7 per cent in the next two financial years. The US-based agency has termed the 7 per cent GDP growth for the October-December quarter as surprising and a tad lower than 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter.

It said the December quarter GDP number suggests that economic activity was hardly hit by the cash crunch after the government’s move to remove 86 per cent of currency in circulation overnight.

Fitch said, gradual implementation of the structural reform agenda is expected to contribute to higher growth, as will higher real disposable income. Fitch projection of growth for this fiscal is in line with the estimates of global think-tank The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD. The rating agency said it expects the policy interest rate to stay at its current level of 6.25 per cent.

http://theindianawaaz.com/indian-economy-to-grow-7-1-global-rating-agency-fitch/

 

[Tarun Kumar]

I have met many such NRPs and I can tell you their common features. All of them behave exactly the same way.
1) Show extreme religiosity especially when talking to Non muslims as if Islam originated in Pakistan but in the night all of them are in bars/pubs or dealing in drugs. Most of them are so stone cold drunk that you are baffled as to how they are muslims in first place.
2) In front of Indians they will claim how good pakistan is, how there are no beggars et all but probe little deeper and you find that all of them were unemployed or semi employed in their own country before undertaking a distress migration. These are signs of economically stagnant countries and such countries have more not less poverty.
3) They try to belittle India but deep down admit that they are far behind us in technology, industry, commerce, manufacturing and services. As a corollary they try to show off their chuddy buddy relationship with chinkis (who behave as if Pakistan does not exists) and how chinese will make them the most advanced economy.
4) All of them suffer a deep superiority/inferiority complex wrt India. They cannot imagine how Hindus who were "their" slaves are so far ahead of them and still believe they can catch up with their "slaves". off course some one should inform these loosers that the Hindu slaves were the ancestors of Paki converts themselves.
5) Most of them are uneducated and semi educated and it seems except few International schools, public schooling in pakistan is abysmal. No wonder all they do is repaint Chinese missiles.

 

[Tarun Kumar]

Also their own women are married off by 20 to some illiterate guy in Pakiland but the men hang out with multiple white prostitutes and partners (men and women both). Many of them are closet gays.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Why is your ego hurt @Indx TechStyle
if I, a Pakistani posted two critical reports?

Nothing personal at you but please, think over it.

At first place, just for sake of criticising India, people have started quoting the agencies whose name were even alien to them yesterday.

Indian GDP numbers (and massive budget India spends this year) are supported by IMF & WB, must be enough for you.

The second point, people whose homes are made of glass aren't supposed to throw stones at other.
Hint: Research such cases about Pak.

I have heard every Porki has a debt of 3 lakh.

No, Pakistani debt around US$875 or IND₹60,000 or PKR92,000 per head. Nowhere near 3 lakhs in any term. 3 lakh will even be higher than Indian nominal GDP per capita.

No why we were miffed jester is because
The first one was some dogshit website called World Socialist Website pound seriously???? and to what rajan said to qoute @IndxTechStyle

Ya mate really!
He had the issue of imports lagging exports by significant and has been solved by consumer market this year.

Now, I'm keeping a lot about history & links with congies too but I don't want to be called a Bhakt again.

Also their own women are married off by 20 to some illiterate guy in Pakiland but the men hang out with multiple white prostitutes and partners (men and women both). Many of them are closet gays.

Please maintain the quality of your language.

 

[Bornubus]

Nothing personal at you but please, think over it.

At first place, just for sake of criticising India, people have started quoting the agencies whose name were even alien to them yesterday.

Indian GDP numbers (and massive budget India spends this year) are supported by IMF & WB, must be enough for you.

The second point, people whose homes are made of glass aren't supposed to throw stones at other.
Hint: Research such cases about Pak.

No, Pakistani debt around US$875 or IND₹60,000 or PKR92,000 per head. Nowhere near 3 lakhs in any term. 3 lakh will even be higher than Indian nominal GDP per capita.

Ya mate really!
He had the issue of imports lagging exports by significant and has been solved by consumer market this year.

Now, I'm keeping a lot about history & links with congies too but I don't want to be called a Bhakt again.

Please maintain the quality of your language.

I was asking that Porki. In 2015 every porki had a debt of more than 1 lakh.

 

[Adioz]

@Neo, DO NOT post articles in this thread if you do not have the brains to follow them up with proper discussion. I posted a reply to which you have not yet replied. And this is not the first time you have tried to completely avoid my posts. Then @Indx TechStyle posts a reply and you say this:-

Pretty much the kind of replies I expected.

India is the only major economy where every quarterly report is met with sceptism from home and abroad. Ofcourse those analysts are commies, congies or simply jealous.

And then you post another article. When @Indx TechStyle again gave you a logical reply to that article, you accuse him of being an egoist. So all you really did is troll us all and made personal attacks on @Indx TechStyle that were uncalled for. I'll request you to kindly not post anymore in this thread as you do not have the temperament to respond with humility. Before posting about our flaws, try to introspect. That will be a much needed lesson in humility for you. Once you have learnt that lesson, try responding to my following post (with reason and not emotion):-

I will humour you a little @Neo.
There are two major changes in the way that GDP is calculated in India:-

1. Revision of base year: The base-year has been revised from 2005 to 2012. The last such revision took place in 2010, where base year was shifted from 1994 to 2005. The only problem economists have with this is that the base-year for IIP data (Index of Industrial Production) has not yet been revised to 2012.
2. Shift of calculation from calculation at Factor prices to Market prices: The GDP was earlier calculated at factor prices (the way it is done in most developing countries). Now, it is being calculated at market prices (the way it is done in most developed countries). Uniformity of taxes is the major deciding factor here that allows developed nations to calculate their GDP at market prices without significant aberrations. In India's case, this move has to do with the impending implementation of GST, which will make taxation in India very uniform. However, for statistical purposes, the CSO (Central Statistics Office) releases both data viz. GDP at factor price and GDP at market price. This has been the case since long before this government revised the methodology of calculation.

Now as for the back-year data, its needed simply from the point of view of statistics. The data before 2010 is not being withheld for now, IMHO it has to do with the fact that base-year was revised in 2010 itself. However, these numbers will eventually be released. Maybe after they are able to revise IIP data. The only reason the article sites that the government is deliberately "hiding" back-year data is that these numbers are 3 months due and the government has not declared a due date. (So the writer of article assumes that the numbers will never be published just because of a slight delay by the CSO. )

The government is not running a scam, trying to fudge up these numbers without adequate grounds. For example, it is still calculating GDP at constant prices and not current prices (like the developed world does) because inflation is still a lot more than in developed countries.

The "expert" whose article you quoted here is definitely an expert at convincing fools into his anti-India propaganda. How is he a propaganda mouthpiece? This little thing he said here gave him away:-

So this "expert" apparently suggests using GDP per capita at PPP as the primary indicator for growth rather than GDP. Tell him that those numbers are also available with the CSO. This is an academic debate in which most economists support the GDP number as the prime indicator, and with good reason. And this is how we measure economic progress of countries today. But this guy absolutely had to bring up an academic debate specifically in the case of India because he has no solid points to base his article upon and is simply pulling assumptions and arguments out of his a** to make false accusations against the government. Well, here is what most investors and economists in the world think:
FDI inflows into India jump 18% to a record $46.4 bn in 2016 despite global fall
And this is in the year next to the one in which the revisions in GDP calculation methods were made. Clearly the world disagrees with your article's opinion, and while they may have their doubts, even they know that these doubts will be resolved once GST is implemented and more back-year data is published. Back-year data was published in december 2015 and again in june 2016. It will be published again because our system does not allow that to not happen.

 

[Neo]

Nothing personal at you but please, think over it.

At first place, just for sake of criticising India, people have started quoting the agencies whose name were even alien to them yesterday.

It is justified considering the bs posted against China and Pakistan and some other countries in this forum. Misinformation, opinion and blogs are being sold for facts, every tom, dick and harry is an expert on China and Pakistan here.

Indian GDP numbers (and massive budget India spends this year) are supported by IMF & WB, must be enough for you.

These institutions reply on the data published by the state banks and national buro of statics, they don't always have their own edits.

The second point, people whose homes are made of glass aren't supposed to throw stones at other.
Hint: Research such cases about Pak.

Goes for both of us.

Just to make one thing clear; I have nothing against India and I want South Asia to prosper. My grudge is against your govt, armed forces and Intelligence agencies only for their evil designs against my nation. But I don't take it out on every Indian.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

I was asking that Porki. In 2015 every porki had a debt of more than 1 lakh.

You mean internal one?
Actually, common Pakistanis don't have habit of maintaining big bank balances like us so more vulnerable.
If you are an Indian with ₹10-15 lakh extra money, you are not more likely than an Pakistani to buy a car from it. You will save it. This allows Pakistanis to have bigger middle class and slightly higher standard of living than Indians (what riazhaq says :biggrin2 but makes Pakistani economic growth strangent in any case of economic crisis.

But couldn't get the point of having everyone a debt of ₹1 lakh on every Pakistani head.

It will simply exceed their GDP per capita so exceeding total GDP as total debt. I think we would have got news till now like for Greece if Pakistan could have become really bankrupt.

It is justified considering the bs posted against China and Pakistan and some other countries in this forum.

Okay, I'm giving you credit and actually "liked" your post for this since we have no active Chinese member here who gives explanation for accusation of data fudging.

Misinformation, opinion and blogs are being sold for facts,

One sided information most of the time;

I admit
Happens on other forums, Chinese, Pakistani & those "some countries'" forum (I know you talking about Britain) about India too, even in worse form.

But misinformation;

always nullified by other member or mod if done by one.
Like we know about that debt of Pakistan is ₹92,000 and nowhere near ₹300,000.

every tom, dick and harry is an expert on China and Pakistan here.

Refrain from hyphenation.

These institutions reply on the data published by the state banks and national buro of statics, they don't always have their own edits.

May be but baiters can wait for old series then which India publishes before every 10 years count. They had problem with other economic indicators now they are up.

Rest of trust is solved by greenfield FDI.

Goes for both of us.

Difference of extent.
We know more about population or economy than you know about yours.
May be any reason census, terrorism, budget or war but its true.

My grudge is against your govt, armed forces and Intelligence agencies only for their evil designs against my nation. But I don't take it out on every Indian.

India doesn't use those "evil" designs unless you annoy it.
Did you notice that?
India never took a step ahead, not even providing asylums since drum beating for Kashmir milded. India actually doesn't need much foreign backing in such issues.

Nor we need to run long term insurgencies. Enough capable to finance & run it alone intensively for a short period. Be it BD, Balochistan or Kurdistan (a long issue over Indian aid in Syria & base for gulf near Hormuz Strait) in ME.

 

[Superdefender]

'India will be world's fastest economy for the next decade'
March 02, 2017 10:27 IST

http://m.rediff.com/business/interv...test-economy-for-the-next-decade/20170302.htm

 

[sthf]

If you are an Indian with ₹10-15 lakh extra money, you are not more likely than an Pakistani to buy a car from it. You will save it. This allows Pakistanis to have bigger middle class and slightly higher standard of living than Indians (what riazhaq says :biggrin2

Indian middle class has far better standard of living than their Paki counterparts. As for the cars, Pakis bought 2 lac cars in 2016, Indians bought 25 lacs during the same period. You do the maths.

Also, Riaz Haq is a grade A chutiya who shat bricks when I confronted him.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Something related.
Copyright Global Economic Symposium
Escaping the Middle Income Trap
The Challenge


The middle-income trap is the situation in which a country’s growth slows after reaching middle income levels. The transition to high-income levels then seemingly becomes unattainable. According to World Bank estimates, only 13 of 101 middle-income economies in 1960 had become high-income economies by 2008. This is an increasingly relevant phenomenon. The share of world population living in middle-income countries has risen dramatically over the last decades resulting from the rapid growth in Asian economies – particularly China and India. Empirical work suggests that the growth rate of per capita GDP typically slows substantially at incomes of between US$10,000 and US$15,000.

Growth slowdowns can often be attributed to the disappearance of factors that generate high growth during an initial phase of rapid development.



Growth slowdowns coincide with the point where the pool of transferrable unskilled labor is exhausted so that productivity growth due to shifting additional workers to industry from agriculture and from technology catch-up is diminishing. International competitiveness is eroded and output and growth slow. The first stage of growth from low to middle income is input driven based on abundant labor supply and high rates of investment. Sustained growth toward the high-income level must be increasingly characterized by a relative abundance of human capital and availability of technological and managerial resources. Middle-income countries are squeezed between the low-wage poor-country competitors that dominate in mature industries and the rich-country innovators that dominate in industries undergoing rapid technological change.

What are the conditions that allow a dynamic transformation of comparative advantage to avoid the middle-income trap? How to move from resource-driven growth to growth based on high productivity and innovation? Can building a high-quality education system be sufficient without more responsive and modern institutions to support competition and innovation? What can we learn from the experience of Asian economies that successfully managed the transition, such as Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong or Singapore? What is the role of social capital (both amongst the population of a country and between population and government) in the transition process from middle to high income? Research suggests that ethnic heterogeneity and income inequality can cause a lack of social capital. Is strengthening democracy in the political system necessary to avoid the middle-income trap? As sustained high growth in today’s middle-income countries implies a massive increase in the ranks of the relatively wealthy, is there a fundamental multidimensional “adding up” problem in which what was possible for a “few” will not be possible for the “many”?

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Indian middle class has far better standard of living than their Paki counterparts.

Indians have far better in non monetary indicators like healthcare & education.

India is a lower middle income country like Pakistan or Bangladesh with most human development indicators like percentage slum population, per capita growth rate, education index, innovation index & intellectual properties etc. at par with middle income economies like Brazil or Thailand.

Actually, Indian life expectancy & hunger index (malnutrition record actually, hunger doesn't exist significantly now) could even be higher if half of Hindus weren't pure vegetarian.
You will find Indians holding a far better bank balance than other countries in Indian subcontinent.

But middle class is defined by spenders, Indians may be earning more with more household incomes but Pakistanis spend more than us.
"Pakistanis have a greater tendency for displaying their wealth, as a result; xtravagant lifestyles are more common in Pakistan. A visit to an affluent Pakistani
home will give one an impression that Pakistanis are more wealthy than Indians in equivalent financial category but they lag behind in socio economic issues.


Middle class Pakistanis spend more on their day-to-day living compared to Indians who tend to live modestly, spend more on kids' education and save for their weddings and higher education. An Indian family believes in consolidating its wealth which helps in the long run and produces more wealth for the next generation. There's a big competition among many Pakistani families to outdo others in materialistic terms, which hurts them in the long run.

The per capita income scenario is consistently changing in India's favor since
the turn of century. Higher literacy rates, better quality of education, high rate of
industrialization, technological advancements, constantly improving
infrastructure are all working to lift India to a level which Pakistan, under its current circumstances, can not catch up with.
Until the 90's, expatriates in the Gulf described India as " a country with poor
people and a rich government" while Pakistan was described as "a country with
rich people and a poor government". The Pakistani perception of India's poverty is a
carryover from the early decades and misses the current Indian realities while many young Indians are not aware of the better days Pakistanis have been through."
From a guy called Liaqat Khan.
@Neo @Bornubus

I can quote many Pakistani economists & scientists with similar views.
India used to have just half of Pakistani per capita around 80s & way behind in HDI and other indicators where it caught up.

You guys can have an idea about Pakistani obsession with living standard that
About 45.5% urban Pakistanis live in slums compared to India's 24.3% with 40% behind in per capita income. Still percentage of Pakistani citizens daily spending $10-15 is double of India's.
It's about way of spending not earning and that's why Pakistani economy is so unpredictable. We find them almost bankrupt for a moment but Asia's hottest stock market at other moment.
They never save money for economic crisis, never hesitate from overspending during boom.

Their neither good nor bad days last very long.

Indians will prefer earn at least 80% higher than Pakistanis before we start spending the same.

As for the cars, Pakis bought 2 lac cars in 2016, Indians bought 25 lacs during the same period. You do the maths.

That's after few years ago's boom & double digit growth rate of Indian Automobile Industry.
Our cars per capita was their one third in last decade. Obviously, great progress has been made.
Indian Automotive Industry expanded 10-12% annually.

Also, Riaz Haq is a grade A chutiya who shat bricks when I confronted him.

He uses is his knowledge to misguide the people.

He always quotes one sided biased sources, denies any explanation and declares other sources biased without any reason.
Let's take example of Oxfam & Credit Suisse reports where he claims Indians holding only fraction of GDP and Pakistanis earn 20% more than Indians even after average income in India is 34% higher than Pakistan.
(Funny is that report also claims that Indians are richer than East Europeans & Russians & America holds 10% of world's poor which is totally false means one third of American population is below international poverty line ($1.9)).

The other thing, he uses quotes to tackle stats.
I posted about Indian exports to China 42% up, he started posting that "many Indians still feel their goods Chinese".

And when I asked him if he wants to debate on statistics or quote & perceptions, thiw hypocrite old man blocked me on Twitter!
He never lets the knowledgeable people post contradictionary links.
I have left even arguing on his blog.