India US Relations

[ezsasa]

"We expect accountability" is confirmation?

They want to gradually increate the "heat" my dude, which is why they are drip feeding these leaks, at some point in the future they will openly allege with names like they did at the start of this drama.

They are using this drama as an excuse to threathen sanctions and all sorts of other things.

sections of murican establishment want a G2, Modi's India is coming in the way.

 

[Azaad]

"We expect accountability" is confirmation?

They want to gradually increate the "heat" my dude, which is why they are drip feeding these leaks, at some point in the future they will openly allege with names like they did at the start of this drama.

They are using this drama as an excuse to threathen sanctions and all sorts of other things.

.. In an oblique way as I wrote earlier where they could simply deny it or offer no comments . How else do you interpret the State Department's statement ?

They want to embarrass the present government . They can't do anything much beyond that given the geopolitical alignments else you think they'd spare a China or Russia in this kind of scenario ?

But they'd extract their pound of flesh not by sanctioning but by delaying requisite permissions to all our defence projects dependent on their equipment WHICH DOESN'T AFFECT OUR PREPARATIONS AGAINST CHINA viz the F-414 deal but not the Predator drone deal or say the P-8I deal if we clear it .

 

[shade]

.. In an oblique way as I wrote earlier where they could simply deny it or offer no comments . How else do you interpret the State Department's statement ?

They want to embarrass the present government . They can't do anything much beyond that given the geopolitical alignments else you think they'd spare a China or Russia in this kind of scenario ?

But they'd extract their pound of flesh not by sanctioning but by delaying requisite permissions to all our defence projects dependent on their equipment WHICH DOESN'T AFFECT OUR PREPARATIONS AGAINST CHINA viz the F-414 deal but not the Predator drone deal or say the P-8I deal if we clear it .

How? Haven't the retarded MoD babus pegged the Tejas mk2 getting funding only when the engines are delivered?

 

[Azaad]

sections of murican establishment want a G2, Modi's India is coming in the way.

G2 won't happen as PRC has dropped its earlier stance of peaceful reunification with Taiwan. And even if the PRC commits to it , Taiwanese citizens have seen what happened to 1 country 2 systems in Hong Kong . The Taiwanese know the CCP knows that the Taiwanese know.

Hence that pretence is dropped , the gloves are off & here we are.

Biden administration's treatment of GoI has little to nothing to do with China . They're incensed we attempted something like this on their soil against their citizen. But they can't go all out to throw the book at us . It's a double whammy.

Hence this low key attack by the administration & the usual high profile ones by their media on other aspects of the GoI's policies & performance.

 

[shade]

G2 won't happen as PRC has dropped its earlier stance of peaceful reunification with Taiwan. And even if the PRC commits to it , Taiwanese citizens have seen what happened to 1 country 2 systems in Hong Kong . The Taiwanese know the CCP knows that the Taiwanese know.

Hence that pretence is dropped , the gloves are off & here we are.

Biden administration's treatment of GoI has little to nothing to do with China . They're incensed we attempted something like this on their soil against their citizen. But they can't go all out to throw the book at us . It's a double whammy.

Hence this low key attack by the administration & the usual high profile ones by their media on other aspects of the GoI's policies & performance.

Pannu plot is manufactured drama.
I refuse to believe Raaa is so incompetent.

If they were so retarded, even Justinder Sing Trudwal should have been able to take names and make arrests.

 

[Azaad]

How? Haven't the retarded MoD babus pegged the Tejas mk2 getting funding only when the engines are delivered?

That phase is over. Funds were allocated & have been released for developmental work to commence on the Mk-2.

It was linked to our securing a deal like we did with the US administration on the F-414 deal. However the deal is not yet operationalised .

 

[Azaad]

Pannu plot is manufactured drama.
I refuse to believe Raaa is so incompetent.

If they were so retarded, even Justinder Sing Trudwal should have been able to take names and make arrests.

If it weren't so why are we even investigating our own agency operatives ? Why did the US administration provide a fig leaf like they did when they described it as a rogue operation ? Someone from our end over reached . My hunch is Doval proposed the action & Modi gave the go ahead.

If you want to know how it will end , have a look at what happened in the aftermath of the Kasshoggi case to the Saudi operatives ? Of course there was an assassination there & the evidence was pretty much iron clad.

Here they want us to make a few of our operatives sacrificial lambs.

 

[ezsasa]

G2 won't happen as PRC has dropped its earlier stance of peaceful reunification with Taiwan. And even if the PRC commits to it , Taiwanese citizens have seen what happened to 1 country 2 systems in Hong Kong . The Taiwanese know the CCP knows that the Taiwanese know.

Hence that pretence is dropped , the gloves are off & here we are.

Biden administration's treatment of GoI has little to nothing to do with China . They're incensed we attempted something like this on their soil against their citizen. But they can't go all out to throw the book at us . It's a double whammy.

Hence this low key attack by the administration & the usual high profile ones by their media on other aspects of the GoI's policies & performance.

muricans are famous for being tonedeaf to ground realities in other parts of the world, what seems obvious to us, most of them may not see it that way.

i suppose we will know the answer to this in 2027, that's the pentagon's latest taiwan invasion estimate.

 

[DingDong]

sections of murican establishment want a G2, Modi's India is coming in the way.

Their true fear is the emergence of an India+China+Russia block which will be almost impossible to deal with for the status quo powers (US and EU). They are trying to execute "divide and rule" policy, the plan is to take out one single threat at a time, they are saving India for the last. India seems to have refused to take the bait.

If the rumors about Unknown Men's involvement in Goldy Brar's killing are true then be assured that R&AW's "spy network" in the anglosphere is fully intact and despite the host nations' efforts it's operational capabilities have not been hampered. Pannun must be shit-scared.

If it weren't so why are we even investigating our own agency operatives ? Why did the US administration provide a fig leaf like they did when they described it as a rogue operation ? Someone from our end over reached . My hunch is Doval proposed the action & Modi gave the go ahead.

If you want to know how it will end , have a look at what happened in the aftermath of the Kasshoggi case to the Saudi operatives ? Of course there was an assassination there & the evidence was pretty much iron clad.

Here they want us to make a few of our operatives sacrificial lambs.

India is certainly not listening.

 

[shade]

If it weren't so why are we even investigating our own agency operatives ? Why did the US administration provide a fig leaf like they did when they described it as a rogue operation ? Someone from our end over reached . My hunch is Doval proposed the action & Modi gave the go ahead.

If you want to know how it will end , have a look at what happened in the aftermath of the Kasshoggi case to the Saudi operatives ? Of course there was an assassination there & the evidence was pretty much iron clad.

Here they want us to make a few of our operatives sacrificial lambs.

My guess is we don't want to say "NO SUCH THING HAPPENED " like we did to the Canucks and "escalate" the matter, because you know Uncle Sam himself now, not his poodle

>fig leaf rogue operation
Told you, they too don't want to escalate to hard, they want to apply gradual pressure to get us to bend, instead of doing 420 SANCTIONS GO!

>Kashoggi ke tukde tukde
afaik they had a recording where Saudi embassy walas are unironically deciding how to make tukde-tukde complete with the actual tukda production with chainsaw noises.

Compared to here they have whatsapp chats and some coolie pajeet drug peddler from Czechia.

If this was a real spy operation they wouldn't have gone public with it.
This is a concentrated effort, they started this after the boys capped that Nijjar in Kaneda.

I find this fully cooked up and bullshit meant to armtwist the GoI.
I also really hope in the years in the future once everything cools down they bump off Pannun for reals.

 

[DingDong]

 

[sameer3694]

Pannu plot is manufactured drama.
I refuse to believe Raaa is so incompetent.

If they were so retarded, even Justinder Sing Trudwal should have been able to take names and make arrests.

Justice Department Announces Charges in Connection with Foiled Plot to Assassinate U.S. Citizen in New York City

Today in the Southern District of New York, a superseding indictment was unsealed alleging murder-for-hire charges against Indian national Nikhil Gupta, aka Nick, 52, in connection with his participation in a foiled plot to assassinate a U.S. citizen in New York City.

www.justice.gov

One thing is that all this happened in June last year. Even that Nikhil gupta was arrested on June 30th in Czech Rep, this was just one week after Mudi’s state visit. And Doval was making multiple back and forth trips to the US that entire month.

It sounds really wild to me that Mudi/Doval would even give such an order in a month when a big state visit was happening, big deals with GE /Micron were being signed. I mean a lot was at stake if something goes wrong.

Per my opinion if I look at this from that context, there’s only two options:

1. CIA entrapment to extract some concessions. This chutiya Gupta himself may be an agent.
Or
2. Low level RAW afsar who watched too many Bollywood movies and decided to take things into his own hands.

 

[srevster]

Now there is a podcast.

 

[Azaad]

muricans are famous for being tonedeaf to ground realities in other parts of the world, what seems obvious to us, most of them may not see it that way.

i suppose we will know the answer to this in 2027, that's the pentagon's latest taiwan invasion estimate.

It's a lot more insidious than that. The US wants to use us like they did Ukraine against Russia . They can't expect to do that by indicting our leadership. At the same time , they can't let this go unanswered.

The Chinese will do it no matter what & events unfolding now & in the future will certainly drive them towards it . This may not exactly commence in 2027-28 but the countdown would've definitely begun by then . Blinken's job & that of his successors would be to buy time . As much as possible.

Another reason the G-2 may have failed is the Chinese would have asked for relaxation in trade sanctions. The US can't offer it without a few more sectors of their economy going under viz the automobile sector or their EV sector to be more precise , which they can't afford

At the same time China's an export oriented economy. Their domestic demand hasn't kept pace with their exports & at this point in time economists know for a fact that even if the CCP tries it can't elevate domestic demand to the point where it effectively counters the drop in exports.

The EU is likely going to join the US in sanctioning the Chinese in sectors like automobiles , solar panels , wind turbines etc to protect their own industry especially the former as the latter two have already been swamped by cheap Chinese imports though they're planning to revive them which isn't possible unless they restrict Chinese imports .

If the Chinese find trade with two of their most lucrative partnerships not yielding adequate returns & more to the point affecting the economy back home it'd have major ramifications on the Chinese economy , consequently their population as the social contract between the CCP & it's citizens (which is a trade off between more democratisation of the polity , civil liberties , etc for economic prosperity ) would've collapsed.

 

[shade]

If the Chinese find trade with two of their most lucrative partnerships not yielding adequate returns & more to the point affecting the economy back home it'd have major ramifications on the Chinese economy , consequently their population as the social contract between the CCP & it's citizens (which is a trade off between more democratisation of the polity , civil liberties , etc for economic prosperity ) would've collapsed.

Hmmm.
If only there was some way
to reduce the population
and yet get them to support the govt

 

[DingDong]

It's a lot more insidious than that. The US wants to use us like they did Ukraine against Russia . They can't expect to do that by indicting our leadership. At the same time , they can't let this go unanswered.

The Chinese will do it no matter what & events unfolding now & in the future will certainly drive them towards it . This may not exactly commence in 2027-28 but the countdown would've definitely begun by then . Blinken's job & that of his successors would be to buy time . As much as possible.

Another reason the G-2 may have failed is the Chinese would have asked for relaxation in trade sanctions. The US can't offer it without a few more sectors of their economy going under viz the automobile sector or their EV sector to be more precise , which they can't afford

At the same time China's an export oriented economy. Their domestic demand hasn't kept pace with their exports & at this point in time economists know for a fact that even if the CCP tries it can't elevate domestic demand to the point where it effectively counters the drop in exports.

The EU is likely going to join the US in sanctioning the Chinese in sectors like automobiles , solar panels , wind turbines etc to protect their own industry especially the former as the latter two have already been swamped by cheap Chinese imports though they're planning to revive them which isn't possible unless they restrict Chinese imports .

If the Chinese find trade with two of their most lucrative partnerships not yielding adequate returns & more to the point affecting the economy back home it'd have major ramifications on the Chinese economy , consequently their population as the social contract between the CCP & it's citizens (which is a trade off between more democratisation of the polity , civil liberties , etc for economic prosperity ) would've collapsed.

US and EU cannot put punitive sanctions against China without pushing their own economies into deep recession.

EU has de-industrialized itself, it's dependence on China's industrial produces is an understatement.

US' "Dollar supremacy" and "high standard of living" heavily depends on the cheap foreign imports, Americans cannot afford "Made in US" goods. Until or unless the industrial production centers are diversified out of China, their dependence on China will remain. Even such diversification might not be sufficient for the US and it's allies to gain sufficient "economic autonomy" against China.

 

[Azaad]

US and EU cannot put punitive sanctions against China without pushing their own economies into deep recession.

EU has de-industrialized itself, it's dependence on China's industrial produces is an understatement.

US' "Dollar supremacy" and "high standard of living" heavily depends on the cheap foreign imports, Americans cannot afford "Made in US" goods. Until or unless the industrial production centers are diversified out of China, their dependence on China will remain. Even such diversification might not be sufficient for the US and it's allies to gain sufficient "economic autonomy" against China.

US has already banned Chinese solar panels & EVs . Then there're the ban on exports of high end SMC as well as machines & technologies to mfg them. A good deal of consumer electronics are now being sourced from across the world which leaves their ICE automobiles & industrial sectors untouched within China although these sectors too are actively exploring China + 1 options.

At the same time Huawei is rapidly displacing Apple & Chinese EVs are doing the same to Tesla within China & the same is expected to happen across sectors out there . I wouldn't underestimate their de coupling drive though admittedly it'd take time.

As far as the EU goes it pretty much faces the same situation as the US. Why do you think they've opened up multiple investigations into Chinese state subsidies for much of their product offerings like EV , wind turbines etc ?

As far as China goes they just can't afford any drop in their exports as their domestic economy isn't a demand driven one meaning it can't compensate for a drop in exports which in turn means in order to sustain existing growth the Chinese will have to export more or at least sustain existing levels which is proving to impossible since it fatally affects vital sectors within the EU & US.

This is precisely the reason they've built up surplus mfg capacities & are now facing the ire of all middle powers with some industrial capacity from Mexico all the way to India. This isn't just an issue for the EU & the US . It's turning out to be an issue between China vs the rest of the industrial world .

 

[ezsasa]

Now there is a podcast.

i raise you karan thapar
========
Pannun Plot has Hallmark of Indian State Sanction, US Intel Agencies say RAW Chief Fully in Picture

 

[DingDong]

US has already banned Chinese solar panels & EVs . Then there're the ban on exports of high end SMC as well as machines & technologies to mfg them. A good deal of consumer electronics are now being sourced from across the world which leaves their ICE automobiles & industrial sectors untouched within China although these sectors too are actively exploring China + 1 options.

At the same time Huawei is rapidly displacing Apple & Chinese EVs are doing the same to Tesla within China & the same is expected to happen across sectors out there . I wouldn't underestimate their de coupling drive though admittedly it'd take time.

As far as the EU goes it pretty much faces the same situation as the US. Why do you think they've opened up multiple investigations into Chinese state subsidies for much of their product offerings like EV , wind turbines etc ?

As far as China goes they just can't afford any drop in their exports as their domestic economy isn't a demand driven one meaning it can't compensate for a drop in exports which in turn means in order to sustain existing growth the Chinese will have to export more or at least sustain existing levels which is proving to impossible since it fatally affects vital sectors within the EU & US.

This is precisely the reason they've built up surplus mfg capacities & are now facing the ire of all middle powers with some industrial capacity from Mexico all the way to India. This isn't just an issue for the EU & the US . It's turning out to be an issue between China vs the rest of the industrial world .

These trade wars are meant to "test the water", they have no true impact, and they are going on from both sides, they will find a middle ground eventually.

Let us not underestimate China's capability. China can effectively respond to the emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic trends. Chinese are smart people. They will modify their economic policies.

China's close-to 20 Trillion USD economy has got sufficient inertia. We have been hearing the doom's day predictions about China since past 20-30 years. China's economy is too large to crumble, almost improbable.

Diversification will take it's time and it will invite new players which won't necessarily subscribe to the western worldview (take India for an example) or to the current geopolitical status-quo.

Back on the topic of India-US drama in relation to the alleged failed assassination attempt, the Americans are shocked by the "audacity" of the Indian state to target a US citizen on the US soil. Going by the recent track record of the Indian Government, we are most likely prepared for what is coming.

As far as the WaPo report is concerned, it is mostly based on the "internal assessments", "projections" and "opinions" rather than on the "hard and precise intelligence gathering". It is a sloppy piece of work.

 

[Azaad]

These trade wars are meant to "test the water", they have no true impact, and they are going on from both sides, they will find a middle ground eventually.

Let us not underestimate China's capability. China can effectively respond to the emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic trends. Chinese are smart people. They will modify their economic policies.

China's close-to 20 Trillion USD economy has got sufficient inertia. We have been hearing the doom's day predictions about China since past 20-30 years. China's economy is too large to crumble, almost improbable.

Diversification will take it's time and it will invite new players which won't necessarily subscribe to the western worldview (take India for an example) or to the current geopolitical status-quo.

Back on the topic of India-US drama in relation to the alleged failed assassination attempt, the Americans are shocked by the "audacity" of the Indian state to target a US citizen on the US soil. Going by the recent track record of the Indian Government, we are most likely prepared for what is coming.

As far as the WaPo report is concerned, it is mostly based on the "internal assessments", "projections" and "opinions" rather than on the "hard and precise intelligence gathering". It is a sloppy piece of work.

Test the waters??! The US has literally cut China off from the high end SMC eco system thus impairing its ability to climb up the value ladder & you're dismissing it as testing the waters ? Ditto for the US ban on solar panels where the Chinese have an absolute monopoly & the EV sector where they're well on the way to do so.

Who's talking about collapsing the Chinese economy? I'm talking about their growth being stifled which will have first , second & third order effects on their economy & consequently on their population for their economy is export dependent. They haven't been able to make the transition into a balance between exports & domestic demand.

For starters their realty business is haemorraging heavily. CCP isn't bailing out both - the realtors or their consumers - the ordinary citizen. Can you imagine the toll it has taken on everybody concerned from the economy (where realty sector contributed the highest to the GDP numbers & growth) to that sector itself to consumer trust apart from the losses incurred to the ordinary citizen.

Does this mean the realty sector has vanished? No, but the numbers are extremely subdued. Where do you think the construction workers will be employed now? CCP is telling everyone who's willing to listen that the reason they aren't bailing out the realty sector is coz they're now focusing on hi tech industry like EVs, automation, industrial robots, SMC etc which is primarily export driven.

How many people are these sectors supposed to employ as compared to the realty sector ? Besides its not as if the CCP doesn't want to bail out the realty sector. It's just that they can't coz their banking & shadow banking sectors are massively indebted & over leveraged. For perspective check out how their realty sector managed to raise enormous amounts of finance & why the entire thing became one giant ponzi scheme?

Now add to it their high paying job being on the line due to subdued exports apart from the low paying ones which can be compensated for to an extent by a low paying one with no guarantee whatsoever of regaining it because of the uncertainty in the economy. Is that a collapse of the economy or a significant downgrade?

How the CCP reacts to these rapid changes & its fall out will determine the course China takes.