India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report

[Ray]

My opinons is that China and India are not in the same league, thats why the average Chinese always laugh at the stupid idea like Chindia or whatever attemps that associate india with China, for the average Chinese, the only goal is to replace the US, and few, if any at all, takes india seriously or believe india is in anyway being equal weight as China.

Thats the cold fact, nothing personal, just learn to live with it.

That is right.

Nothing is common. Not even the population. China is overflooded and India is not quite there.

The Chinese love money and generally Godless people, while India is blessed with spiritualism.

Chinese are happy to eat anything and everything, while Indians are selective.

Chinese are belligerent, while Indians are pacifists.

There are many contrast and indeed nothing is common.

 

[AprilLyrics]

i hope this will happen earlier.

we have been tired of being compared with India....

 

[cinoti]

- How does a 95% literacy rate figure into your factory economy?
- With a literacy rate of ~82% today, India has managed to create a service economy that was several times larger than China's was 13 years ago; and is even comparable to China's today.
- 13 years ago, China's GDP was $1.19 trillion*.
- Today, India's TV penetration is close to 90%. The Television sector is slated to grow 14% this anum.

P.S. While the U.S. dollar has inflated, India's inflation has outpaced the U.S.'s.

*Correction: Make that, China's GDP was $1.19trillion about 11 years ago.

India Literacy has a ridiculous standard, if an adult can spell his name out with one of the major languages, he is not illiterate.
I did not make this up, it is said by Indian educator and writer Pallavi Aiyar.

 

[Rage]

i hope this will happen earlier.

we have been tired of being compared with India....

Thank you for your good wishes. We have reason to believe, that Chinese growth will only peter out into the low single digits by that date. Demographic indicators play a key role in this secular projection. Whereas India will continue to grow at a modicum rate (4 - 5%) by that date if reforms are not stalled. However, the Chinese economy will, needless to say, be significantly bigger than the Indian economy.

 

[cinoti]

Thank you for your good wishes. We have reason to believe, that Chinese growth will only peter out into the low single digits by that date. Demographic indicators play a key role in this secular projection. Whereas India will continue to grow at a modicum rate (4 - 5%) by that date if reforms are not stalled. However, the Chinese economy will, needless to say, be significantly bigger than the Indian economy.

I bet you did not read the original post, the post said, the growth rate of Inida will surpass that of China in 2030, you do the math youself. China's growth rate has been surpassing US's for so many years ( 30 years plus?),we are barely matching up to half of its GDP.

Let's assume the predication is true, I mean the same old forecast has been told since forever, if it is true, Indians have to wait until the end of this century to reach to a comparable economic scale with China.

But will it be true? with your infrastructure and the uncurable gaps between castes, genders, poors and riches, will you conquor these hurdles with your chaotic system? I am not as optimistic as you are.

 

[Rage]

India Literacy has a ridiculous standard, if an adult can spell his name out with one of the major languages, he is not illiterate.
I did not make this up, it is said by Indian educator and writer Pallavi Aiyar.

Really?

If you're apt to believe Pallavi Aiyar, who is a journalist, who is no economist and has conducted no broad-based literacy survey, perhaps you're liable to believe this report as well:

Only 2% of all Chinese and 0.7% of rural Chinese meet [basic] scientific-literacy standards.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...zSKz-G&sig=AHIEtbQBlmy5G5W7gFU25sIITOUg2zL7OQ

 

[Rage]

I bet you did not read the original post, the post said, the growth rate of Inida will surpass that of China in 2030, you do the math youself. China's growth rate has been surpassing US's for so many years ( 30 years plus?),we are barely matching up to half of its GDP.

Let's assume the predication is true, I mean the same old forecast has been told since forever, if it is true, Indians have to wait until the end of this century to reach to a comparable economic scale with China.

But will it be true? with your infrastructure and the uncurable gaps between castes, genders, poors and riches, will you conquor these hurdles with your chaotic system? I am not as optimistic as you are.

Absoloutely not.

Growth rate ≠ growth in real per capita terms

Economic potential of one country bears no fractional relationship with any specific other country. They are based primarily upon demographic indicators and extrapolated technological growth rates.

Long run growth rates are exponential (curved) not linear (straight line).

"Uncurable gap between castes, genders, poors and riches" are certainly not uncurable. Caste income gaps, which is what I believe you are trying to draw attention to, given that they are unique to India, have been systematically rooted out in economic practice from much of urban India; rural India now beckons. As for the urban rich-poor wealth gap, that is a matter of concern for all nations. As per a recent report, China is one of the most unequal countries in the world:

Wealth gap puts China among world's most unequal nations, survey reveals | South China Morning Post

 

[cinoti]

Really?

If you're apt to believe Pallavi Aiyar, who is a journalist, who is no economist and has conducted no broad literacy survey, perhaps you're liable to believe this report as well:



https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...zSKz-G&sig=AHIEtbQBlmy5G5W7gFU25sIITOUg2zL7OQ

The test itself is a stupid one they tried to use an instrument to test out latin language proficiencies on Chinese subjects, It was also used on Japanese, Mongolian, and South Korean, and received an even lower score as resultant, sometimes, westerners are just plainly stupid to
believe their language is the world's language, this very test has become a laughing stock in all east asian countries only you take it as something serious.

 

[cinoti]

Absoloutely not.

Growth rate ≠ growth in real per capita terms

Economic potential of one country bears no fractional relationship with any specific other country. They are based primarily upon demographic indicators and extrapolated technological growth rates.

Long run growth rates are exponential (curved) not linear (straight line).

"Uncurable gap between castes, genders, poors and riches" are certainly not uncurable. Caste income gaps, which is what I believe you are trying to draw attention to, given that they are unique to India, have been systematically rooted out in economic practice from much of urban India; rural India now beckons. As for the urban rich-poor wealth gap, that is a matter of concern for all nations. As per a recent report, China is one of the most unequal countries in the world:

Wealth gap puts China among world's most unequal nations, survey reveals | South China Morning Post

You are just a believer, economics on the countrary, is not a religion.

"the International Institute for Urban Development in Beijing" is a foreign agency, it has nothing to do with world bank. South China Morning is
a Taiwan DDP backed anti-China media based in Hongkong, it was famous for its rumor that Deng Xiaoping was assasinated in 1989.

This is the link of world bank gini index table, see if China has any thing to do with what you quoted:
GINI index | Data | Table

 

[roma]

Some other rules behind so called "one child policy":
1. Minority races like Tibetan, Manchurian, Urgur, Zhuang, Koreans... They no doubt can own 2 kids.

IF they can survive the drinking water ( you put stuff in it to make them impotent ) , IF they can survive the unemployment ( v difficult for uyghur to get jobs and when they do there's discrimination on the job - eg toy factory in guangzhou in 2009 - remember ? ) and if they can survive the separation of marriageable age women from the men - the very clever strategy of giving the women high paid jobs in far off cities and leave the men unemployed ( or lower income ) in turkestan , they cant meet they cant marry they cant produce - YEAH SURE - THEY ARE allowed TO HAVE TWO !! - after overcoming all those IMPOSSIBLE HURDLES you have very generously arranged for your minorities ( indeed ! ) !!

 

[Bangalorean]

So basically, Chinese will take any statistics that are favourable to themselves, and ignore any statistics that are favourable to India. Figures.

Personally I agree with nrj, "reports" and "predictions" like this are worth less than toilet paper. But it is amusing to see the level of pig-headedness that the Chinese have, just on the basis of a 13 year lead in economic reforms.

 

[cinoti]

So basically, Chinese will take any statistics that are favourable to themselves, and ignore any statistics that are favourable to India. Figures.

Personally I agree with nrj, "reports" and "predictions" like this are worth less than toilet paper. But it is amusing to see the level of pig-headedness that the Chinese have, just on the basis of a 13 year lead in economic reforms.

No, you can use non rupee statistics. like UN or World Bank, even these are biased too, it has more credibility than a single desk office installed by some nobody in China.

 

[Rage]

You are just a believer, economics on the countrary, is not a religion.

"the International Institute for Urban Development in Beijing" is a foreign agency, it has nothing to do with world bank. South China Morning is
a Taiwan DDP backed anti-China media based in Hongkong, it was famous for its rumor that Deng Xiaoping was assasinated in 1989.

This is the link of world bank gini index table, see if China has any thing to do with what you quoted:
GINI index | Data | Table

LoL. True. I base my predictions on the analytical and quantitative, if not infallible, method of economics. What do you base your observations on?

Pallavi Aiyar is a US stooge with ties to the Communist party who prints articles for domestic Chinese consumption.

 

[cinoti]

and according to World Bankn Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) China is 2.8%, while India is 29.8%, this speaks louder than any Gini coefficiency, doesn't it?

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) | Data | Table

 

[Rage]

The test itself is a stupid one they tried to use an instrument to test out latin language proficiencies on Chinese subjects, It was also used on Japanese, Mongolian, and South Korean, and received an even lower score as resultant, sometimes, westerners are just plainly stupid to
believe their language is the world's language, this very test has become a laughing stock in all east asian countries only you take it as something serious.

They used a 'latin language' test to measure the scientific-literacy of Chinese subjects? Are you for real??

What did Pallavi Aiyar base her assertions and statements upon?

 

[cinoti]

LoL. True. I base my predictions on the analytical and quantitative, if not infallible, method of economics. What do you base your observations on?

Pallavi Aiyar is a US stooge with ties to the Communist party who prints articles for domestic Chinese consumption.

I just based it on my trust of World Bank statisticians.
Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) | Data | Table

 

[cinoti]

They used a 'latin language' test to measure the scientific-literacy of Chinese subjects? Are you for real??

What did Pallavi Aiyar base her assertions and statements upon?

According to Pallavi Aiyar's book, she based her assertions on first hand personal experience, she is one of the earliest people who devoted to improve India's illiteracy movements, she herself has been a teacher in rural india to help people read and write.

 

[Rage]

and according to World Bankn Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) China is 2.8%, while India is 29.8%, this speaks louder than any Gini coefficiency, doesn't it?

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) | Data | Table

The World Bank bases its poverty statistics on official country statistics. I assert, that just like Pallavi Aiyar, the Chinese Government fudges its statistics.

As for India's statistics, this may be instructive to you:

India’s Poverty Estimates: Don’t just get Outraged, Understand them! | Forbes India Blog

P.S. It may be factually important for you to know that the World Bank has misrepresented, and apologized for misrepresenting, India's AIDS statistics before.

It may also be useful for you to understand that the GINI coefficient is categorically separate from BPL statistics.

 

[Rage]

According to Pallavi Aiyar's book, she based her assertions on first hand personal experience, she is one of the earliest people who devoted to improve India's illiteracy movements, she herself has been a teacher in rural india to help people read and write.

Pallavi Aiyar has not devoted her life to India's literacy movement. That is a euphemistic expression.

I have devoted my time to India's literacy movement as part of TFI. I find no such finding, as Pallavi Aiyar's.

Pallavi Aiyar is a journalist, whose assertions are her own, and bases them on nothing other than analogical experience, not scientific or factual data.

 

[cinoti]

and according to World Bankn Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) China is 2.8%, while India is 29.8%, this speaks louder than any Gini coefficiency, doesn't it?

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) | Data | Table

by the way, india's nation poverty line is set below 28 rupees per day, wich is some 3 RMB
and China's national pervety line is 7 RMB daily, somewhere around 60 rupees

if China sets as 28 rupees there is no poverty by Indian's stand, if Indian set to 60 rupees, there will be more than 50% by Chinese standards.