India Cold Start Doctrine and Pakistan's Tactical Nukes

[ezsasa]

Pakistan realized need of more Sam systems after balakot.our military planners thought that we don't need Sams but now things are completely changed and that's why we need long range sams.currently we operate spada and Chinese sams.shoulder fired missiles are good only against low flying jets but for high altitude,long range Sams are needed.china has everything.soon they will copy s-400 as well and it will also be available to Pakistan.

So can we conclude that cruise missile attack from Pak on india is not a high reward option?

 

[IndianHawk]

We should never under-estimate enemy.
China is a serious worry.

There is a difference in underestimating an enemy and looking at enemy position realistically .

You don't go to war with a nuclear power just to support a failed state . Unless the failed state is worth risking your own existance . Chinese are not fools. War with India will be akin to soviet misadventure of nazi Germany. All their rising power will be decimated and India will still stand.
It will be Chinese pearl harbor.

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[IndianHawk]

If you want conventional,we will adopt conventional.if you go nuclear,we will also follow.our cruise missiles can carry nuclear warheads.i think everything will start with iaf and paf aerial fight.ground troops will fight only after aerial conflict is over.

That's all good. Now here is the problem. You will need to spend billions for any conventional match up with India. In your airforce 300 birds are 3rd gen ( mirage 3 &5 + f7 ) . Replacing them alone even with jf17 will cost 20 billion $.

Also as indian BMD advances you will have to renew your entire nuclear arsenal as older missile will be rendered useless .

To survive first strike by India. Pakistan will need second strike with nuke sub and slbm .

To achieve that Pakistan will need defense budget as high as 5-6% of GDP as GDP of Pakistan in dollar terms is currently shrinking.
And growth prospects are bleaer than ever before . This will lead up to economic collapse of Pakistan before a real war ever materialize.

When Pakistan went nuclear their theory was nuclear bombs will reduce conventional expenditure and thus give parity to Pakistan with less expenses and yet Pakistan defense as a % of GDP has been rising even as economy is plummeting. So that policy has failed and Pakistan is back to square one.



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[Arsalan123]

Pakistan should fear India. For small pakistan to fight against a country with nuclear triad, second largest army, fourth largest navy, a booming G20 economy and a powerful industrial capability is no joke.


Does your brown water navy has ability to fire missiles from sea? Has your navy mastered launch and navigation of missiles from naval platform? Very few countries on planet has this capability. I highly doubt pakistan is one of them.


The question you should ask is how long PN will survive against full might of IN?
Inside tip: Not very long...



This is the root of all problems.


Looks like pakistan has learned nothing from their friendship days with US.... Listen buddy there are no friends in international geopolitics. Every nation is looking for their self interest. The day China sees their benefits with India higher than pakistan, there will be a shift in their policy just like US.


All this chest thumping about tactical missiles.:blah: What makes you think India doesn't have tactical nukes?

Inside tip: we (and other countries) are tracking location of your Nasr TELs via dedicated satellites. :biggrin2:



What happens? lets see...

Best case scenario for pakistan: It gives India justification to retaliates with own theater nukes and wipe out paki fauj. After reaching nuclear threshold china too distance themselves from pakistan. Pakistan is declared a rough nation and major sections on pakistan by UN, Without danda of fauj, complete collapse of pakistan as a nation and small countries start to emerge.

Worst case scenario for pakistan: Full spectrum nuclear attack and complete annihilation of pakistan.

So what are you waiting for? Is this the same industrial country that was hiding Taj Mahal with black cover in 2008? Why India needs rafale? Why s-400? Are you scared? Do you believe that only you is watching from satellite? We even spotted heat patterns underground.we know where to hit.you guys always think of Pakistan as weak country.we know where you are hiding your ballistic missile.these facilities are primary targets,not secondary.better economy is good.india should work hard but comparing yourself with Pakistan shows only weakness from indian side.

 

[Arsalan123]

Only one Mig 21 and that too in your territory.
Mi-17 down most probably due to a friendly SAM.
Su-30 MKI: No chance in hell.
24 PAF jets thwarted by 8 IAF jets. I guess next time there won't be just 8 jets.

Are you kidding me? Your spokesperson showed amraam wreckage which was only it's cover.where was other parts of amraam? We hit your helicopter.villagers said that armed men robbed the wreckage of mi-17 and they left with black box in their hands.i don't mind if we lost f-16. Ask Russia to count su-30.americans counted our f-16 in Sargodha airbase.

 

[Arsalan123]

That's all good. Now here is the problem. You will need to spend billions for any conventional match up with India. In your airforce 300 birds are 3rd gen ( mirage 3 &5 + f7 ) . Replacing them alone even with jf17 will cost 20 billion $.

Also as indian BMD advances you will have to renew your entire nuclear arsenal as older missile will be rendered useless .

To survive first strike by India. Pakistan will need second strike with nuke sub and slbm .

To achieve that Pakistan will need defense budget as high as 5-6% of GDP as GDP of Pakistan in dollar terms is currently shrinking.
And growth prospects are bleaer than ever before . This will lead up to economic collapse of Pakistan before a real war ever materialize.

When Pakistan went nuclear their theory was nuclear bombs will reduce conventional expenditure and thus give parity to Pakistan with less expenses and yet Pakistan defense as a % of GDP has been rising even as economy is plummeting. So that policy has failed and Pakistan is back to square one.



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Second strike capability is there.it is not necessary that Pakistan use submarines to launch missiles in India.there are other solutions.now again same economy excuse.we can't match you,we k ow this but we can defend well.i am sure about defending.

 

[sorcerer]

Second strike capability is there.it is not necessary that Pakistan use submarines to launch missiles in India.there are other solutions.now again same economy excuse.we can't match you,we k ow this but we can defend well.i am sure about defending.

What will pakistan defend?
when the paki land is split from the inside!!!by own people!
ehhrrrrmmmmm..

 

[Arsalan123]

Pakistan died in 1971 itself,Arsalan. Period.

1. It's first heart stroke was when it became an Islamic state as against Jinnah's dream of Muslim majority secular state.
2. It's second stroke came when Op Gibraltar failed and resulted in a war which ended up with Indian upper hand at d time of ceasefire.
3. The last and final fatal stroke came in d guise of Bangladesh which proved muslim ummah is as worthy as old boar's titties(Mikey sir,had 2 borrow ur line) and Jinnah is the grandest failure of 20th century. Two Nation Theory is a failed experiment.

That is ur nation's health summary. Officially u died in 1971. Wat is surviving is an even more failed state run by an army gone rogue.
Sorry Arsalan,u'll have 2 bear with it.

I want you to stay happy.you have your own views about Pakistan.defending Bangladesh was hard.it was very far from this side of pakistan so no reinforcement.today Pakistan is a single unit.all provinces are combined so easy reinforcement,easy defending and easy artillery and tank movements.quaid e Azam created pakistan.i don't know if his idea was right or not but I read the history of India.it is full of wars.last night I was reading austerlitz posts on panipat wars.it is better for pakistan to stay away from India because every major force attacked India in the past so I feel India China war is also possible so better for Pakistan to stay away from conflicts.

 

[Arsalan123]

What will pakistan defend?
when the paki land is split from the inside!!!by own people!
ehhrrrrmmmmm..

Hahahahaha. In your dreams my friend.

 

[Arsalan123]

Do you even know WTF you are talking about? A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Ok, let’s do some math instead of jingoism that you Pakis are infamous for.

For a max 5kt warhead (max 5kt warhead on Nasr which is between 1 to 5 kt) – Blast and fireball radius is 500m or approx < 2 sq km

Now let's take just one small unit of the ICG consisting of an armored regiment (Combat Unit or CU)

Combat Unit frontage < > 10 km with two combat teams up. Depth < > 5 km. Total area covered approx 50 sq km.

How many nukes would be required to neutralize one CU? 25.

Therefore, how many Nasrs required for neutralizing just one ICG consisting of 3 CUs, 3 battalions of mechanized infantry, and supporting arms? 150 Nasrs approx.

For initial offensive with 10 -15 ICGs simultaneously over a wide front, Narsrs required to neutralize them - 1500 to 2250 approx!! And then remember, all these Nasrs will not result in total destruction of the ICGs. There would still be plenty left to clobber you.

Now that’s a hell of a lot of Nasrs required! Remember, all tanks and personnel carriers are protected from nuclear radiation. There will be no infantry out in the open.

If you need 1500 Nasrs to neutralize 10 ICGs for stopping the Indian juggernaut, going a step further, 1500x5 kt =7500 kt ie, equal to the yield of 375 Hiroshima atom bombs on Pakistani territory (as these will be employed only after the ICGs have penetrated deep into Pakistan and would be used as a last resort!!)

What would be left of Pakistan? You know what happened to Hiroshima after just one 20 kt nuke was dropped. Here were talking of an equivalent of 375 atomic bombs! Whither Pakistan? And how many Nasrs do you possess anyway? Out of which, how many will turn out to be duds?

In other words, your grand plans of trying to stop an Indian offensive by your little Nasrs are going to fry Pak itself in the process. A double whammy if ever there was one!!! It’s like cutting off your own nose to spite your enemy's face!

Please show this post to your Bajwas and Gafooras, I've done the calculations for them. Hope they now know what they're up against. That would put a stop to their jingoism and bombast about countering Indian offensives by their so called tactical nukes called Nasrs!!

In other words, in case of a conflagration, you guys are fukd!

Cheers!

Are you sure about 5 kt warhead? Whatever you have said above makes sense but kindly add at least 10 to 20 kt warhead.also add chemical weapons for entire regiments because it's very easy to disperse chemical weapons and calculate it's area where it affects most.as I said earlier,this is age of modern warfare.add other systems as well which aren't in public domain.

 

[aghamarshana]

Are you kidding me? Your spokesperson showed amraam wreckage which was only it's cover.where was other parts of amraam? We hit your helicopter.villagers said that armed men robbed the wreckage of mi-17 and they left with black box in their hands.i don't mind if we lost f-16. Ask Russia to count su-30.americans counted our f-16 in Sargodha airbase.

Americans counted ur jets in Sargodha AFB? Pentagon said it is not aware of any such audit. Whom are u trying to fool,sir?

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/news...after-feb-aerial-dogfight-with-iaf/ar-BBVFL8Z


And u hit our helicopter? What is the range of AMRAAM? Where were ur fighters located and where was this heli? Are u on hash? Do u even understand wat u typin dude?
Crash was near Budgam and ur fighters were at Rajouri and Poonch. About 180 kms away frm crash site. Can ur AMRAAMs take on targets over 180 kms with precision?

 

[White Wolf]

Are you kidding me? Your spokesperson showed amraam wreckage which was only it's cover.where was other parts of amraam? We hit your helicopter.villagers said that armed men robbed the wreckage of mi-17 and they left with black box in their hands.i don't mind if we lost f-16. Ask Russia to count su-30.americans counted our f-16 in Sargodha airbase.

Point 1: Pentagon denied any claims that it even counted anything.
Point 2: Russia doesn't needs to count SU-30's because we freakin bought them and didn't got them on donation.
Point 3: Mi-17 incident place was 200km away from LOC and you think your poor AMRAAMS can reach that far than you are smoking hash.
Point 4: Your dear beloved AMRAAM hit the ground near the loc and exploded
Have a good read:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...aam-missile-remnants/articleshow/68225187.cms
AMRAAM is not AMRAAM when you give it in the hands of monkeys.

 

[sorcerer]

Hahahahaha. In your dreams my friend.

Hahahahaha...in your reality my western neighbor.
What ever gets you a good sleep and dream.

 

[sorcerer]

Point 1: Pentagon denied any claims that it even counted anything.
Point 2: Russia doesn't needs to count SU-30's because we freakin bought them and didn't got them on donation.
Point 3: Mi-17 incident place was 200km away from LOC and you think your poor AMRAAMS can reach that far than you are smoking hash.
Point 4: Your dear beloved AMRAAM hit the ground near the location and exploded
Have a good read:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...aam-missile-remnants/articleshow/68225187.cms
AMRAAM is not AMRAAM when you give it in the hands of monkeys.

Dont try to convince the posters from pakistan..
The info will come out in a few days from USA itself.

 

[itsme]

Are you kidding me? Your spokesperson showed amraam wreckage which was only it's cover.where was other parts of amraam? We hit your helicopter.villagers said that armed men robbed the wreckage of mi-17 and they left with black box in their hands.i don't mind if we lost f-16. Ask Russia to count su-30.americans counted our f-16 in Sargodha airbase.

Lol I am tired of explaining reality to Pakis. If SU30 was hit there is literally zero evidence. Why can't PAF release radar image? Why don't we see any videos of a third plane going down or parachute sightings? Or civilian sightings of SU30 going down over Kashmir as in MI17? ISPR just giving out BS to hide the sighting of the f16 going down claiming it is SU30. PAF dint hit MI17 just check the location of MI17 crash and see how far it is from the engagement zone also ISPR itself confirmed they dint have anything to do with it. And if PAF had really hit the MI17 then IAF would have confirmed that why would IAF hide that? And how hard is it for IAF to take out multiple Paki helis in Pakistan. But, it is speculated it might be friendly fire.

Why should Rus count our SU30? We dint sign any contract with them regarding the usage like how PAF did with US. Also, Americans dint count the F16 in Sargodha as denied by the Pentagon itself and not some magazine. What PAF did is put on a show for the Paki awaam but it went wrong horribly when Mig 21 crossed over and shot F16.

 

[White Wolf]

@Arsalan123 listen to the latest press conference of your dumb DJ Ghaffora. He said "We have shot down two jets and Wreckage of both were seen by all" But surprise surprise there was no wreckage of an imaginary second jet. The only two Wreakages shown by porki media were the Mi-17 Budgam chopper incident and the Mig-21 inside your territory. Your general is clearly referring in his propaganda the
Mi-17 helicopter as the second jet because poor Ghaffora can't distinguish between a freakin chopper and a jet. This is the dumbness level of your generals.

 

[aghamarshana]

I want you to stay happy.you have your own views about Pakistan.defending Bangladesh was hard.it was very far from this side of pakistan so no reinforcement.today Pakistan is a single unit.all provinces are combined so easy reinforcement,easy defending and easy artillery and tank movements.quaid e Azam created pakistan.i don't know if his idea was right or not but I read the history of India.it is full of wars.last night I was reading austerlitz posts on panipat wars.it is better for pakistan to stay away from India because every major force attacked India in the past so I feel India China war is also possible so better for Pakistan to stay away from conflicts.

U r talking as if Pakistan was not involved in any of those wars! Actually,if u really have read Indian history(as u claimed to),the region which bore the brunt of invasions was N.W.India known today as Pak.
Ur Qaid asked for Pak coz he is as much a retard as ur present leaders are. If he was really concerned abt Muslims in India,he should've asked only for W.Pak, knowing u guys treat the Bengalis as lowlifes. But,he didn't. He wanted to head a large Muslim majority nation and create a humongous image of himself in d muslim world. He is indirectly responsible for Bengali genocide in '71 and directly responsible for '46 Calcutta Massacre.
Don't teach us ur tiny miny history.
And don't reply hereafter. Don't want thread to derail further. Keep ur views to urself.

 

[White Wolf]

@Arsalan123 Dude, your politician said Hubble was sent into space by SUPARCO. I guess nothing is impossible for pakistan, may it be winning war against India or turning helis into jets. Shuper powel Pakistan.

 

[Shiv sagar]

So what are you waiting for? Is this the same industrial country that was hiding Taj Mahal with black cover in 2008? Why India needs rafale? Why s-400? Are you scared? Do you believe that only you is watching from satellite? We even spotted heat patterns underground.we know where to hit.you guys always think of Pakistan as weak country.we know where you are hiding your ballistic missile.these facilities are primary targets,not secondary.better economy is good.india should work hard but comparing yourself with Pakistan shows only weakness from indian side.

1.Why are you trying to buy pantsir? Why t90? Are you scared? Are you pissing in you pants?
2. " We are watching" ...we know you are watching...from the Hubble telescope launched by suparco. Well you can watch..see..thats all...you can only watch.
2. You may know where to hit, but the fact of the matter is you lack the arsenal to hit my dear.
3. We don't think pakistan is weak instead we think it as a country who are contesting to be a member in G7 infact we think it as a future super power much above us of a.
4. Since you are here let me ask you ...whats the price of tamatar in pakistan? Is it affordable there? What about milk? Are you getting enough to drink?
5. Oh I forgot one thing to ask. I herd you have had great discussion with head of states of Russia, UK, USA, KSA and turkey...via Twitter...has anything materialized by such high level discussion? When is India going to get blacklisted by FATF?

 

[Bhadra]

I want you to stay happy.you have your own views about Pakistan.defending Bangladesh was hard.it was very far from this side of pakistan so no reinforcement.today Pakistan is a single unit.all provinces are combined so easy reinforcement,easy defending and easy artillery and tank movements.quaid e Azam created pakistan.i don't know if his idea was right or not but I read the history of India.it is full of wars.last night I was reading austerlitz posts on panipat wars.it is better for pakistan to stay away from India because every major force attacked India in the past so I feel India China war is also possible so better for Pakistan to stay away from conflicts.

Arsalan, I really do not know if you will ever understand it? But I still will give it a try.

India is a subcontinent, geographically closed and compact "Nation". Tamil Nadu in the extreme south can not remain unaffected by whatever happens in Afghanistan or Punjab. Be it environment, climate, politics, religion, famines or prosperity - it all effects the entire subcontinent. Be it Turks, Mongols, Huns, Kushan or Arabs, any thing that started in Sindh ultimately spread upto Assam and Tamil Nadu. Same was the case with Buddhism, same with Hinduism, same with national movement for independence. Politically there might have been different units but in all other respect they are almost as one.

So whatever happens in Pakistan, India gets effected. What ever happens in India, Pakistan can not remain aloof. That is why we Indians are worried the moment you have US bases. Chinese occupation of Pakistan is going to give us lots of headaches. Do not think that invasions in India happened from West only. Ashoka, Kanishka, Pals and many king, lately Sikhs invaded and captured present day Pakistan from East.

And now Modi will repeat the history of Maharaja Ranjit Singh. Be prepared. Some Mohiyal General of Indian Army may retake the kingdom of Raja Dahir by capturing Sindh restoring glory of Mohyals.

And do not dream of Chinese capture of any part of India. If it ever happens, it is going to happen after they have completely taken Pakistan.