India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[garg_bharat]

This is a bigger for loss for USA and it's middle east allies. India can forget access
to central asia anytime soon. This was a major strategic blunder after independence.
One of many on along list by Nehru.

Stability of south Asia and central Asia is very much predicated on a strong India. Otherwise turmoil will not stop. The turmoil will harm India too.

Burma to Iran and and Caspian sea to Sri Lanka is India's sphere of influence.

 

[Ajax01]

A fact people miss is that hardkill are ineffective against top attack munition like top attack atgms. Type 15 covers 360 in azimuth degree and only 20 degree in altitude.

 

[garg_bharat]

Russians are in the honeymoon suite with China. They are together in
a lot of places. Iran, Arctic, Central Asia and even talk of CPEC and afghanistan.

See fundamentally China's OBOR has merit. We cannot wish away a nation's desire for progress and prosperity. China has filled a vacuum created by declining financial power of the West.

However the way China is going about it (example is CPEC in Pakistan) in a heavy handed way and without due diligence; just to create military clients has resulted in this current mess. The West is seeing Xi as a new Hitler. The result cannot be good.

 

[janme]

My layman opinion

The newspapers got it wrong it seems. The road was already under construction. Indian side was complete and Bhutanese side was halfway thtough.

The road is not a response to Chinese claim to Sakteng. Rather the Chinese claim is a response to the road building.

I had strongly suspected this too,however I could not find evidence on the internet regarding this, also Nitin gokhale did not say anything about this in the recent video about infrastructure on the border video. Perhaps more knowledgeable members can shed light on this. It doesn't make any sense to not build this road.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

See fundamentally China's OBOR has merit. We cannot wish away a nation's desire for progress and prosperity. China has filled a vacuum created by declining financial power of the West.

However the way China is going about it (example is CPEC in Pakistan) in a heavy handed way and without due diligence; just to create military clients has resulted in this current mess. The West is seeing Xi as a new Hitler. The result cannot be good.

They have added a military duality that makes it a threat.

 

[nick_indian]

Let's face it, despite the beating the Chinkies got in Galwan from us, they are beating us everywhere. They have taken our territory which they are yet to vacate in Pangong Tso and Depsang and now they have taken an old friend. China wins, at least for now.

And I say this with a very heavy stone on my heart (dil pe patthar).

 

[utubekhiladi]

Let's face it, despite the beating the Chinkies got in Galwan from us, they are beating us everywhere. They have taken our territory which they are yet to vacate in Pangong Tso and Depsang and now they have taken an old friend. China wins, at least for now.

And I say this with a very heavy stone on my heart (dil pe patthar).

you are being so negative

let china develop all ports and roads,.. after china falls (i m expecting within 3 years) we will simply overtake all the ports.

think of it like they are building the ports for us.

 

[nick_indian]

LOL trade route to what? Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Poorest countries on the planet. What purpose does that serve.

India has unnecessarily exaggerated both the importance of iran and the amount of help they were offering. They have provided zero help in Baluchistan and Iranian agencies also played a part in the kidnapping of Kulbhushan from chabahar. What ever little hanky panky india did in Baluchistan before Modi was without the help of iran. Kidnapping of Kulbhushan was pretty much a signal from iran to stop it and it all stopped right then.

India should have picked the side of US/Israel way back when iran fecked india over in the farzad gas field.
If India had chosen wisely back then, the Americans would have democratised the mullas by 2016 or 2017.

This is what India should do now.
- Buy oil from only 3 countries - Saudi, UAE and America.
- Provide all possible support to Saudi / UAE in Yemen (although that war is lost but at least India can prevent the formation of an irani/chinese base in Yemen.
- Sign up for complete US sanctions on iran including medicines and food grain. (a little cruel but hey...)

Obviously all this can now be done after the US election because if biden wins, he will sell off America to the chinese and qataris anyway.

I won't deal with all your points because I believe I have already mentioned by view point on these things in earlier.

If we believe that having no friends around us and having friends so far away (Arabs and the West) is a great thing then that's a big fallacy. We need friends closer to our borders. Iran and Afghanistan were the closest countries to us which we could have genuinely called friends (irrespective of Iran's token statements on Kashmir for placating some Mullah population at home).

This kind of arrogance that we don't need friends close to us will not bode well for India.

 

[IndianHawk]

China is India's largest trading partner which is heavily skewed in china's favour. India imports everything,starting from diwali crackers to advanced machines from China. In-fact many of the ingredients and raw materials of so called "made in India" are imported from China,besides many of the Indian biggies and start ups are backed by chinese firms and financial institutions.









COIN in North East is primarily lead by both AR and the Indian army.The former is mostly composed of army members on deputation. The Indian army lead numerous operations against the NE insurgents like Ops bajrang and Ops rhino
Thankfully things have contained in Maoist hotbelt,had it not been the case(especially there was a serious talk of involving army after the 2010 ambush) you could have seen army's direct role

.

Total Chinese investment in India is miniscule.

Despite hype about billion-dollar deals, China is a minor investor in India

China occupies a lowly place in terms of investments in Indian companies; that’s true even of its investments in Indian startups

www.livemint.com

Look beyond the hype . See the actual data.

Lets start with the fact that they have 71 submarines which includes a good chunk of nuclear subs.

Ya 7-8 SSN which are more noisy than 3 decade older Russian sub. All other ssk useless against India . Again stop falling for hype .

Maybe a few thousand army men are involved in those operation. Doesn't make any difference to overall manpower . We have 50 lakh men among army reserve and Paramilitary easily and they can swell up multiple times easily in war scenario.


I can't quote the post about api and auto components. So here is response
Autocomponants can be replaced from Germany / Japan / South Korea and asean. May be costs will rise a bit no big deal.

API govt has already started substitution. All critical API will be manufactured in India.

Consumer durables and leather goods aren't going to break our economy. Infact 10 -12 years ago we were doiy fine in them before Chinese dumping.

And you are also forgetting the other side of coin . Chinese earn billions on these exports which provid jobs to millions in china . If china stops exporting them it will result in mass unemployment in china . It will close thousands of factories who only serve India. So I'm not sure how Chinese could do that.

Anyway I welcome a post with some facts.

 

[nick_indian]

you are being so negative

let china develop all ports and roads,.. after china falls (i m expecting within 3 years) we will simply overtake all the ports.

think of it like they are building the ports for us.

There is no good news coming from anywhere. Who though Nepal would suddenly turn so rabidly anti-India though I am aware it's more Oli than anything else. Taliban winning in Afghanistan and now this Iran news. China taking over territory and us trying to get them to leave.

So much negative news, that on has got to become negative. But yes, I hope to see China fall. If China falls, everything else will fall in line.

P.S- I hope the Arabs will limit their economic cooperation with Chinkies now because of Iran.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

you are being so negative

let china develop all ports and roads,.. after china falls (i m expecting within 3 years) we will simply overtake all the ports.

think of it like they are building the ports for us.

It will still be Iranians making that call. I hope you are right about fall of China.
It is reaching a point where Chinese rise and western world will not be able to
coexist.

 

[Kumata]

 

[Tanmay]

I had strongly suspected this too,however I could not find evidence on the internet regarding this, also Nitin gokhale did not say anything about this in the recent video about infrastructure on the border video. Perhaps more knowledgeable members can shed light on this. It doesn't make any sense to not build this road.

https://zeenews.india.com/home/bhutan-queen-on-arunachal-pradesh-visit_210141.html

Itanagar, Apr 2003: The Queen of Bhutan Ashi Dorjee Wangmoo Wangchuk has arrived in Arunachal Pradesh on a five-day visit to the state.
Official sources said that the Queen who traveled by road was received at Bletting village on the Indo-Bhutan border by Omak Apang, MLA, on Friday.

State Minister for Power, Relief and Rehabilitation Dorjee Khandu, local MLA Tsewang Dondhup, Deputy Commissioner K Kholie and local army commander accorded her a warm welcome at Namtsering.

The Queen met the residents of Namtsering and had lunch at a newly constructed tourist cafeteria.

Now its very difficult to find this Bletting Village on any current map. Also theres no direct access to Arunachal via Bhutan via an official road.

I used this old US Army Map https://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/ams/india/ng-46-02.jpg

Blue river is the Nyamjang Chu River (Namka Chu river meets this river near Thagla Ridge ). Bletting village lies on this river it seems.

Its location wrt to the Trashigang road and other Indian roads can be seen.

Bletting village (according to my guess ) : 27°29'55.34"N 91°40'20.00"E

You can see new contructions(road plus buildings) on our side. Post 2015 more visible changes


Mandala Pass (india) to Bhutan border road ends at : 27°20'47.72"N 92° 4'1.55"E

 

[IndianHawk]

There is no good news coming from anywhere. Who though Nepal would suddenly turn so rabidly anti-India though I am aware it's more Oli than anything else. Taliban winning in Afghanistan and now this Iran news. China taking over territory and us trying to get them to leave.

So much negative news, that on has got to become negative. But yes, I hope to see China fall. If China falls, everything else will fall in line.

P.S- I hope the Arabs will limit their economic cooperation with Chinkies now because of Iran.

Positive news is huwei is banned in UK now. Australia is beefing up with 270 billion usd plan against china. USA has rejected all chinese claim in South China Sea.
We killed more Chinese soldiers at once than ever before in last 40-50 years. And yet Chinese have backed down on most points barring 1 which we will force them to evacuate too. Meanwhile our border infra didn't stop for a single second infact it's speed up.

Japan is getting 100 more f35 , leaving china hopelessly outmatched and developing hypersonic against china. Quad is back in business . And a whole lot more. Taiwan is getting new f16s against china and also french missiles for navy. Hongkong has lost special status in a huge financial blow to china.

Tiktok gone is the positive worth all the negatives in world lol.

 

[tarunraju]

Obviously a lot to talk about with Depsang, Y-junction, Hot Springs, etc.

 

[tarunraju]

Akkal thikane aa gayi.

 

[IndianHawk]

It will still be Iranians making that call. I hope you are right about fall of China.
It is reaching a point where Chinese rise and western world will not be able to
coexist.

Than china would be destroyed. Western world is still too powerful once it unites.
USA + EU gdp is almost 40 trillion dollars compared to 14 trillions on china.

China could have taken on the Western world with help of Asian unity with India Indonesia Japan and Korea and brics. But it screwed up big time with it's territorial hunger . Now it has now powerful friend . Only Russia is with china that too only where it's convenient for Russia . Pakistan is bankrupt and will backstab china as usual.

Iran is desperate for money and wants security against USA but china can't provide security. And favouring Iran would cost china in Arab and Israel relations.

Iran will also see coldness from India now.

All in all china has failed to build any meaningful alliance so despite trump USA will keep winning for now. Especially an India usa alliance would be end of Chinese dream forever.

 

[nick_indian]

Positive news is huwei is banned in UK now. Australia is beefing up with 270 billion usd plan against china. USA has rejected all chinese claim in South China Sea.
We killed more Chinese soldiers at once than ever before in last 40-50 years. And yet Chinese have backed down on most points barring 1 which we will force them to evacuate too. Meanwhile our border infra didn't stop for a single second infact it's speed up.

Japan is getting 100 more f35 , leaving china hopelessly outmatched and developing hypersonic against china. Quad is back in business . And a whole lot more. Taiwan is getting new f16s against china and also french missiles for navy. Hongkong has lost special status in a huge financial blow to china.

Tiktok gone is the positive worth all the negatives in world lol.

Thanks for this post man. I needed it. Sigh...

 

[nick_indian]

Akkal thikane aa gayi.

Iski ga@nd maro sabse pehle. I hate his face. Sharma ke naam pe dhabba.

 

[tsunami]

Positive news is huwei is banned in UK now. Australia is beefing up with 270 billion usd plan against china. USA has rejected all chinese claim in South China Sea.
We killed more Chinese soldiers at once than ever before in last 40-50 years. And yet Chinese have backed down on most points barring 1 which we will force them to evacuate too. Meanwhile our border infra didn't stop for a single second infact it's speed up.

Japan is getting 100 more f35 , leaving china hopelessly outmatched and developing hypersonic against china. Quad is back in business . And a whole lot more. Taiwan is getting new f16s against china and also french missiles for navy. Hongkong has lost special status in a huge financial blow to china.

Tiktok gone is the positive worth all the negatives in world lol.

Philippines buying Bramhos..