Rafale make in india contest? Dont see how they will lose.
There are plenty ways:
- non compliance to the RFP (one reason why the shouldn't even be invited back, since Dassault is the reason for the whole mess), if they still reject Indian rules.
- costs or ToT, the SPM has a higher focus on costs and secondary on tech transfer than the MMRCA. Part time DM Arun Jaitley made that clear last year, when he approved the model as part of the DPP 2016. We know the Rafale proposal was the 2nd costliest (possibly even the costliest) in the MMRCA and with the F3R now as the base, the costs are nor going to be lower. In Brazil we have seen, how Dassault lost a tender, by not providing the ToT they could have offered, because "owning" technology, doesn't mean they are will to share it all (see US).
- political reasons, since we have a new election coming and (even if I don't see a change in power) neither party can afford to be linked with an expensive give away before the elections. But also, since we are keep trying to get the US to open up on technology and the NDA government has shown to be for political deals, which was not a factor in the MMRCA.
- And as ironic it might even be, there is also the HAL factor. The government is preaching privat sector and make in India support, but most deals they approve are for PSUs. We know HAL has issues to keep workers in job, when no additional orders for Hawks, Do 228, MKI/FGFA come in. At the same time, we have Boeing publicly speaking in favour for a joint F18 production with HAL. So combining political advantages, with jobs for HAL would be an option too.
The more the government delays things, the worse it gets.