Face-off in South China

[Soham]

I was just reading up on China's Naval Aviation, and a few questions popped into my mind.
How effective would the Naval Aviation be against an Indian Carrier group in the South China Sea ?

Also,
Chinese Critical Sea Lines seem to be like :

Would the Chinese Naval Airforce be capable of breaking an Indian blockade at the choke point(the Strait of Malacca) ?

Secondly, Would the PLANAF be able to sustain air operations around the strait considering the distance from the mainland ? What would be the role of Vietnam in such a scenario ?

Just for the reference,
The nearest Chinese Naval unit(quite a big one) is at Zhan Jiang.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

How effective would the Naval Aviation be against an Indian Carrier group in the South China Sea ?

The Indian carrier group would run out of missiles before the Chinese run out of planes.

Would the Chinese Naval Airforce be capable of breaking an Indian blockade at the choke point(the Strait of Malacca) ?

Nope.

Secondly, Would the PLANAF be able to sustain air operations around the strait considering the distance from the mainland ? What would be the role of Vietnam in such a scenario ?

Nothing because the Chinese would not even try.

 

[Soham]

The Indian carrier group would run out of missiles before the Chinese run out of planes.

Nope.

Nothing because the Chinese would not even try.

Sir,
What about the 28 diesel subs, 16 destroyers, 40 frigates, 42 Amphibious ships, 11 missile patrol crafts at zhen jiang ?
Would the PLANAF be too stretched to be effective at Malacca ?

 

[A.V.]

sir how would the scenerio change once the gwadar port in pakistan is completed , as far i have read china is looking to shift its oil transfer from the gulf and the african countries to gwadar and then through railroad/road directly into the chinese western province

how will the indian tactics change then if what i pointed out is correct, would the importance of the straits be significantly reduced?

what should be the indian strategy in case of a conflict then ?will south china sea be the skirmish zone or action will shift to the west?
i dont think the indian navy have the capability right now to effectively block the straits and the western front at the same time, the scenerio is bound to change then

 

[LETHALFORCE]

India has Charbar port in Iran,can this be utilized as a chokepoint for Gwadar???

 

[LETHALFORCE]

and Defense pacts with Qatar maybe something can be done jointly with USA there??

India, Qatar ink defence, security pacts - Economy and Politics - livemint.com

India, Qatar ink defence, security pacts

 

[Officer of Engineers]

People,

Before anything else, two questions.

1) How long do you envision a war between China and India?
2) What is the strategic reserves for either country?

 

[A.V.]

in a conventional form without the use of nukes i think it will be a longish war because to gain a strategic win for either country within a short period of time using conventional modes of warfare wouldnt be easy

the most important strategic reserve according to me would be energy reserves, in the form of oil to sustain a war for long periods apart from the supplies of ammunitions and spares thats a must for a war

 

[kuku]

And where would we fight this longish war?
In the sea where both our naval forces have minimal presence (in each others area of influence).

In the Air, where the theater seems to be tied to land operations.

Or inland where the war can hardly be propogated beyond the current line of control due to force level both sides maintain.

 

[Soham]

People,
2) What is the strategic reserves for either country?

Sir,

From what I read, China has an upper hand when it comes to oil reserves(which in my opinion would be most significant)

In 2007 China announced an expansion of their crude reserves into a two part system. Chinese reserves would consist of a government-controlled strategic reserve complemented by mandated commercial reserves. The government-controlled reserves are being completed in two phases. Phase one consisted of a 101.9 million barrel reserve, mostly completed by the end of 2008. The second phase of the government-controlled reserves, for an additional 170 million barrels is in the construction and planning phase.

On the other hand, India has begun the development of a strategic crude oil reserve sized at 37.4 million barrels.

My question was basically about cutting up the oil routes at Malacca by a carrier group, and the role of PLANAF in such an event.

 

[Soham]

An interesting link about the importance of the Indian Ocean to each nation in the IOR and the major naval bases in the region.
The Indian Ocean Region - A  Story Told with Pictures

 

[Officer of Engineers]

I am going to take a different tact here. I am going to ask the questions and I want you to give me the answers. Don't worry, I am going to lead you through these questions.

Ok, so you're aiming for a "longish" war. So, let me asked this question. If oil shipments suddenly stops tomorrow oh I don't know, the Martians vapourized it, when is India going to feel it? When is China going to feel it?

 

[Soham]

I am going to take a different tact here. I am going to ask the questions and I want you to give me the answers. Don't worry, I am going to lead you through these questions.

Ok, so you're aiming for a "longish" war. So, let me asked this question. If oil shipments suddenly stops tomorrow oh I don't know, the Martians vapourized it, when is India going to feel it? When is China going to feel it?

Sir,
I don't know about the longish war.

About the time, after which the crunch would be felt...
For India, it would be 2 weeks of strategic reserves. But the existing oil already in the country should last another week.
For China, at the moment, the crunch would be felt after around 60-62 days, judging from their reserves.

But,
How can China block India's oil supply lines ?

 

[Yusuf]

Indias tri service command in the Andamans is closer than anything China has close to the Mallaccas. Both indian AF and Naval air assets come into picture in the event of any major hostility.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

How can China block India's oil supply lines ?

Never mind that. That is not important.

Now, you will have to do some research here, specifically, checking the Chengdu, Langzhou, and Beijing Military Regions. How many divisions can the Chinese move in 30 days?

How many can India move?

 

[Ray]

I don't visualise a war between India and China.

It will be too expensive in all terms.

China will not attack since it will put them way back in their struggle for superpower status and they would not like to give the US a chance to stop their progress towards superpower status.

There will be sabre rattling at best!

China cannot stop the oil supply to India since the IOR is a US preserve!

In any war with China, it is not a question of mustering manpower, it is question of the terrain which is a force inhibitor!!

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir,

You and I know this by heart. In fact, we could do this ad nauseum. I told Sohamsi the Chinese would not even try at the Malaca Straits. I could tell him the answer but that would only lead him to try to further refine his scenario in order to fit the Chinese into the fight.

So, I'm trying to get him to figure out the answer on his own, hoping that this would lead him to think along those lines for future answers instead of keep bugging us for the answers.

 

[Ray]

Sir,

You and I know this by heart. In fact, we could do this ad nauseum. I told Sohamsi the Chinese would not even try at the Malaca Straits. I could tell him the answer but that would only lead him to try to further refine his scenario in order to fit the Chinese into the fight.

So, I'm trying to get him to figure out the answer on his own, hoping that this would lead him to think along those lines for future answers instead of keep bugging us for the answers.

Actually, it is good that young Indians are finally getting interested in the defence of the country.

In our Parliament, they are totally clueless about the defence and the Defence Budget gets passed without any debate!!

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, ours is no different. The Defence Budget is decided in Cabinet. The only thing Parliment is interested in is whose riding got the jobs.

 

[deltacamelately]

Indias tri service command in the Andamans is closer than anything China has close to the Mallaccas. Both indian AF and Naval air assets come into picture in the event of any major hostility.

Yusuf,

1. Andamans have very limited naval aviation assets.
2. You can not offer battle in an area if the enemy is not interested either.
3. Any blockade of the strait will spell into an act of war due to the presence of shipping vessals flagged for other countries.
4. You don't try a blockade with limited Naval and Air assets in the presence of superior forces in the vicinity with vested interests.

So, No, the max any conflict will roll out into will be subject to land conflicts with limited to very limited air interventions.