This seems in line with what HVT tweeted some time back . 2-3 yrs for roll out post sanctioning of funds followed by a year of taxi trials post which we'd have the FF. CMD HAL seems to have truncated the taxi trial period to 6 months.
Assuming Mar '26 as date of FF , we can expect FOC by 2031-32 & full production to commence by 2032-33 with a lag of 1 year for delays which again seems to be as per the production schedule of HAL for the entire lot of 180 nos Mk-1a which is due to end by 2032-33.
A few points on the mfg & MLU facilities of HAL in the wake of the alarming fall in our squadron strength , the various programs undertaken by ADA / HAL & the looming war against China which IMO is due around 2030.
> Production of the entire lot of 200 nos Mk-2 expected to commence by 2032-33 should last up until 2040-42 depending on the production quota /yr which should vary between 20-25 per year.
> This is considering the same production lines for Mk-1a would be utilised which as per latest reports are 2 in Bangalore & 1 in Nashik geared to churn out 24 nos p.a in peak production.
> Ideally we should've begun production by 2030 & wound up by 2040 but here we are . Hopefully this schedule would be considered sacrosanct & adhered to by all parties concerned.
> Further this particular production schedule doesn't take into account any exports . I'm referring to both the Mk-1a & Mk-2 here . Wonder how would MoD & HAL cater to that ?
> Another aspect to be considered is the production of both the AMCA Mk-1 & the TEDBF , (apart from the HTT-40 & HJT / IJT -36) both of which should be ready to go into production post FOC in the latter half of the 2030s.
> If 3 of HALs production lines seem to be occupied catering solely to Mk-2 production we'd need at least 1 line per FA as far as the AMCA & TEDBF goes assuming we're going in for 40 & 60 nos respectively.
> However all this is for the future . What should engage our immediate attention & demand our focus is the Super Sukhoi upgrade where it seems clear that HAL is awaiting the order for the 12 Su-30 MKI next year presumably with the Super Sukhoi upgrades which'd then go into the other 84 MKIs.
> In case these MKIs are built to older specifications & assuming we commence the Super Sukhoi upgrade program by 2026 as originally envisaged at Nashik , given 1 line there will be dedicated to Mk-1a production how long will it take for the first (?) lot of ~ 84 nos MKIs to be upgraded ?
> What about the remaining ~ 180 nos ? Do we intend to upgrade them too & if so what's the deadline ? We can't possibly be upgrading MKIs all the way into the 2040s where we go in for the production of the AMCA Mk-2 once the entire lot of MKIs are upgraded which seems to be the case prima facie.
> The reason these questions need to be asked & answers sought is coz our MKIs in its present form are in no position to go up against the J-20 + J-16 combo.
> Ideally we need to be upgrading the initial lot of ~ 84 nos within 2 years by 2028 which translates to 42 nos per annum which works to ~ 3 nos being upgraded per month . I've my doubts if HAL - Ozhar / Nashik can dedicate 3 lines to upgrade the MKIs AND dedicate 1 line to assembling Mk-1a .
> We've around 7 BRDs spread across India minus the one at Ozhar which can undertake these activities although I'm not sure how many MKIs can they upgrade per annum in addition to their existing tasks.