- Apr 29, 2015
That isn't our topic. China has always been far ahead of any non-western country in aviation barring Russia and no one disputes that.True but it is still a very limited club. The Y-10 was developed in the 1970s and flew in 1980. Very early, before China was anywhere near what it is today. Imagine if they stayed with the program.
This is true because they had the biggest market along with full control on production....with China and India being huge markets by themselves, if they can build the tech themselves then this duopoly would make no difference anymore....India is way out but China is kinda there and with sanctions thrown around they might even accelerate it.
If US doesn't give them certification, you can't fly them outside China. And US & France will never let them get certification. Civil aviation is dominated by these two countries and this duopoly isn't going away in next 2-3 decades.There will be 8000 airliners bought by China in the coming years. COMAC will get a chunk of that if the Chinese government stays the course (unlike with the Y-10.) It will be enough to make the industry viable even if the US don't give them certification.
So, unlesa provided one of these happens, Boeing and Airbus can't be challenged by anyone.
- If any trade war pro max happens divding standards around world.
- At least a dozen countries around the world develop different types of airliners. They collectively agree with each other and ignore the regulations made by ICAO.
Safety in civil aviation is a grim matter and no sane government would ever trust anything which has not been tested with time and situation.
So, I don't see Chinese aviation buying 8000 aircrafts a brand new model in haste unless they are out of their minds. They would wait for product to be mature & ripe.