China's vulnerability in Malacca Strait

bose

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Desperate China look out for friends has none except Pakistan & North Korea"¦ The Chinese project are doomed to be failure as the terrain requires huge amount of investments with no guarantee or prospects of China's economy holding up to current growth rate to support the investment"¦ China will also have difficult time to complete the projects as it has already had the earlier similar experiences working in the same region"¦ It will drain China economically"¦

Pakistan currently under the Saudia's bailout money & USA's indirect influence will also have to think before total sellout to China"¦
 

bose

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Then what's the use of 3 trillion $$$ forex? Waiting for it to rot in treasury bonds?

Indigenous people? Haven't u ever heard of Deng's motto "Development is the answer to social problems"?

Also hope u watch a documentary by National Geograhpic or Dicovery Channel on how Yangshan Port was built out of small islands off the coast of Shanghai to a world class port >>>>
The key is that China's growth prospects are not looking good in the time to come... With rapid rising in labor costs and gradual shifting of the trading partners to more cheaper source of goods does not look good for China...

Those Indigenous peoples hate you & your dear friend... without their concurrance you can sustain the project, will end up spending and then un able to manage / maintain the same later...

Keep those trillion $$$ or so for yourself ... difficult days are ahead...
 

amoy

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The key is that China's growth prospects are not looking good in the time to come... With rapid rising in labor costs and gradual shifting of the trading partners to more cheaper source of goods does not look good for China...

Those Indigenous peoples hate you & your dear friend... without their concurrance you can sustain the project, will end up spending and then un able to manage / maintain the same later...

Keep those trillion $$$ or so for yourself ... difficult days are ahead...
1) China now is growing at 7% not too fast, not too slow

2) China is experienced in dealing with an "unfriendly" indigenous environment. The trans-Myanmar pipelines pass through many conflict zones where various ethnic groups are wrestling with Nay Pyi Taw for more "autonomy". And Myanmar central govmt is quite similar to KMT govmt in Nanjing back in 1920-40's who didn't have a full control over the state.

3) Development means u don't stay cheap all the time, instead climb up the "food chain" globally.

4) $$$ is meant to be spent
 

bose

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1) China now is growing at 7% not too fast, not too slow
Right!! but it is slowing down definitly with stagnation of European & US economy will go down further...

2) China is experienced in dealing with an "unfriendly" indigenous environment. The trans-Myanmar pipelines pass through many conflict zones where various ethnic groups are wrestling with Nay Pyi Taw for more "autonomy". And Myanmar central govmt is quite similar to KMT govmt in Nanjing back in 1920-40's who didn't have a full control over the state.
Baluchistan is a different ball game altogether... more than one players are involved there... China already had a bad experience there... the situation is going from bad to worse ... Myanmar is relatively in much better position...

3) Development means u don't stay cheap all the time, instead climb up the "food chain" globally.
Did not get your point ... anyway leave it...

4) $$$ is meant to be spent
Yes right!! keep it for yourself in trouble times is a wise thing to do...
 

amoy

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Tovarisch, cheers for friendship and Adieu to Malacca

Russia and China oil cooperation estimated at the unprecedented $270bn – Putin — RT Business
The value of 25 years of cooperation between Russia's state oil major Rosneft and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will be $270 billion, said President Putin at the economic forum in St. Petersburg.

Under the contract Rosneft will export 360.3 million tonnes of crude to China.

Boosting economic ties with the Asian Pacific region, especially in energy issues, is now the focus for Russian authorities, Putin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). On Thursday the heads of Russia and China announced drafting a major oil contract, where "prospective crude deliveries to China will top hundreds of millions of tonnes and exceed $60 billion," Putin said. However, later on Friday the President clarified that the $60 billion figure classified then as 'unprecedented' was just a part of the prepayment, with the total cost of the energy deal between the countries being many times bigger – at $270 billion over 25 years.

The issue of increasing exports of Russian oil to China has been repeatedly raised this year. Rosneft's intention to boost oil supplies to China has been underpinned by opening the second line of Russia's East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline in December 2012.
 

jack

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[India after 1962 has no guts to go to war with China.In every border incident with China, India could not but back down.
The Chinese navy is self-sufficeint-they make their own boats , aircrafts,submarines ,torpedoes and missiles while the
Indian navy imports most of her equipments.
In a war of attrition, if you dont have the industries to make up for the loss, you are going to lose the war.This is exactly what happened
to Israel in the 1967 war, fortunate to be saved by Uncle Sam in the nick of time.Israel learned her lesson well and today is
self-sufficient in producing her own weapons.
For India to contest China she needs to have a vibrant defence industry. A few Sukhoi jets is not going to decide the outcome of a war.
 

jack

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China is feared by some but liked by many. China has many friends around the world, especially in Africa ,middle-east and latin America.
I am not even sure if America is more popular than China globally.
 

jack

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Dont forget that Chna produces as much oil as Iran and can increase production.....
 

Ray

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Dont forget that Chna produces as much oil as Iran and can increase production.....
Apparently, you like to delve in superficialities.

It is not production that matters, but the quantity required to sustain the economy and the nation, and at the same time have a strategic reserve capable of sustaining in case of a calamity or war.

Here is something to help you on your way to understand oil requirements:


Hong Kong Newspaper Mingpao talked to Chen Geng, a former executive at PetroChina and a member of the Financial and Economic Affairs Committee of the 11th National People's Congress. He gave us some very chilling facts.

China has some 12 million tonnes of strategic oil reserve, which is enough for 10-15 days only. To bring the reserve in-line with international practice (i.e. enough for 3 months of use), they need 60 million tonnes, which is 5 times of the reserve they currently have. As 55% of oil being used in China has to be imported from other countries, should the unrest in North Africa and Middle East be escalated which truly disrupt oil production, there's a danger that China cannot get oil even if they have the money.

China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Enough For 10-15 Days Only - Business Insider
CHINA'S OIL SECURITY PIPE DREAM

http://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/China-Pipeline-Sealane_NWCR_2010-Spring.pdf

You may like to study the problem before you comment with assumed sagacity engined by unprecedented alacrity.
 
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mikhail

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[India after 1962 has no guts to go to war with China.In every border incident with China, India could not but back down.
The Chinese navy is self-sufficeint-they make their own boats , aircrafts,submarines ,torpedoes and missiles while the
Indian navy imports most of her equipments.
In a war of attrition, if you dont have the industries to make up for the loss, you are going to lose the war.This is exactly what happened
to Israel in the 1967 war, fortunate to be saved by Uncle Sam in the nick of time.Israel learned her lesson well and today is
self-sufficient in producing her own weapons.
For India to contest China she needs to have a vibrant defence industry. A few Sukhoi jets is not going to decide the outcome of a war.
come on mate your PLA ran away declaring an unilateral ceasefire in '62 without even completing their basic objective which was to secure "South Tibet"/Arunachal Pradesh.the only thing that was achieved by them was to occupy some barren cold desert area of Aksai Chin just when the Indian Army regrouped itself for a massive counter-offensive,so that says a lot of things about PLA's guts.
the next time they tried for an adventure in the Sikkim region they were cut into halves and sufffered over 400 casualties(Chola Incident).
as far as the indigenous defence industry is concerned we are quite capable of making our own assault rifles,ammo,MBTs,helicopters,SAM,ATGM and even combat aircrafts in the near future(read LCA) and if the situation demands we can easily ramp up the production by mustering all our available resources in case of a war.plus we have a large no. of friends who will be helping us by providing us with the weapons in a war like situation and there's absolutely nothing your PLA(N) can do about that coz the IOR is literally controlled by the Indian Navy whose fleet is largely made up of indigenous warships.
but if i were you i would be concerned on the fact that in case of a war the I.N. will most definitely block the straits of Mallaca and the fleet air defence will literally patrol over this area.so that gives us a few options in case of an Indo-Sino war in the future...
 

amoy

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In addition to the gas pipeline that is in operations, 『 Oil Pipeline Through Myanmar to China Expected to Open in Jan 』 [2015/1/21]

Oil Pipeline Through Myanmar to China Expected to Open in Jan - ECF Your Window On China Energy Market
A crude oil pipeline and a deep sea port meant to secure an alternative route for Chinese imports overland through Myanmar are set to open at the end of January, but an affiliated refinery in China is months away from completion, sources said. The finished development should help ease China's reliance on shipments via the narrow and potentially risky Malacca Strait. Although that route, through which some 80 percent of China's oil imports now pass, would still be used for the vast majority of overseas purchases.

PetroChina, the main investor in the facilities, has built 60 percent of the refinery in Yunnan province that borders Myanmar, designed to process the crude shipped via the pipeline, a spokesman for the state energy giant said on Monday.

Completion is slated for later this year. Until the 200,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Anning refinery opens, the new pipeline can only be used to pump oil into tanks, providing limited near-term support to China's crude oil imports, which expanded by nearly 10 percent in 2014 to 6.2 million bpd. The pipeline has a capacity of 440,000 bpd.

A company official at China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) subsidiary Southeast Asia Pipeline Co. Ltd., which is in charge of building and managing the pipeline, said the 2,400-km (1,500 miles) line would open at the end of this month. The planned opening was confirmed by an energy official in Myanmar.

"Things are ready to launch the oil pipeline and it's tentatively scheduled for January 30," said the official, who requested anonymity as he is not authorised to speak to media. Before the launch of the new refinery, oil will be stored in tanks in Guangxi, a region east of Yunnan. CNPC also has up to a dozen storage tanks in Myanmar, and could have even more in Yunnan, according to a Chinese media report. CNPC had said in 2013 that the pipeline was 94-percent complete and would be finished that year. An adjacent natural gas pipeline opened in 2013, carrying 1.87 billion cubic metres of gas in its first year.

 

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