Can China Invade Taiwan? Not Likely

[Tshering22]

Taiwan is doing a pretty poor job about making their citizens aware about how to distinguish between PLA and TAF forces just based on comical representation of uniforms.


Do they seriously think that China cannot manufacture Taiwanese camo uniforms if the need arises? THey have a legion of textile mills that can easily churn them out by the thousands. Knowing PLA's sneaky tactics, they might seize Taiwan from within.

 

[Hari Sud]

The Chinese opportunity to grab Taiwan

With America and Europe busy in a war in Ukraine, which they cannot win and with second front just opened up in the Israel / Hamas fight, now it makes sense for China to unfold its own plans to grab Taiwan.

To be honest, it's not as easy as it sounds. The US had anticipated this and had prepared well in and around the China Sea to thoroughly discourage it. Furthermore, the Taiwan Army is well-equipped to thwart Chinese invasion plans. Moving to Taiwan has become a prestige issue for Chinese. Otherwise, it will be known as 'Paper Tiger'.

In numbers, Chinese have an advantage in troops, naval ships of the invasion force and propaganda. On the other hand the quality of defending force in and around Taiwan, their battle experience is far superior to untried Chinese. With a new US naval buildup at the northern end of the Philippines, it is possible to block all Chinese naval moves, including trade and supply routes. The forces that have landed on the beaches of Taiwan will have no choice but to retreat. That will be a big shock to the Chinese prestige.

Not only that, but if the fighting continues. The combined forces of the US and Taiwan can inflict serious damage on Chinese forces in the coastal region of the mainland. Also, a big portion of Chinese navy will hit the bottom of the sea.

The omens are not good for Mainland Chinese to grab Taiwan. To retain their prestige and a good portion of their armed forces, they are better off not attempting it.

 

[Tshering22]

Read, and think...
U.S. Major Combat Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Partner and Ally Views | RAND

Key takeaways:

• Australia and Japan have significant security interests at stake in major Asian contingencies. But both will face political (and, in the case of Japan, legal and constitutional) hurdles to participating in wars that do not directly engage them at first.

Australia and Japan are treaty-bound allies of the US. Japan's situation is understandable, but Australia faces no immediate danger from China. Yet, they are overly active against them, only because the US wants them to.

• South Korea values the U.S. alliance but has little interest in being a cobelligerent off the Korean Peninsula.

Seoul has a massive trade pact with China and knows that the Korean economy would be in the gutter without Chinese economic input. China's massive market and its government's ability to wield this power make South Korea keep that sensitive balance. They also have their own equation of being a thorn in Japan's side. Americans expecting Koreans and Japanese to work with each other is like asking the Jews to work alongside the Waffen SS. Even a subdued Korea will never agree to it 100%.

• The authors found little evidence that, unless directly attacked itself, Thailand is willing to endanger its security by offering military aid to the United States.
  [*]Several other regional countries—notably India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam—have very strong traditions of nonalignment and display no evidence of being willing to volunteer to join a war that does not directly involve them.

They have a strong initiative to stay neutral because they know that the other side wants to use them as a shield for taking on Chinese fury, weaken, and then fight this weaker China to defeat it and retain global dominance.

Ukraine of 2022 and Georgia of 2008 are not exactly the legacies that inspire confidence, you know.

• New Zealand and the Philippines have few air assets to devote to a major fight and strong incentives to remain aloof from distant wars.

The Philippines and NZ are completely different. The former is directly on China's chopping block and is highly invested in keeping the Americans interested in the region. The US is the only power that is willing to meddle and keep China in check if you see Manila's POV.

NZ has no teeth in the game, except to provide the US with some far-away, secondary bases.

• Various factors will affect the final choices of these partners, such as the degree of Chinese belligerence between now and the crisis, the degree of U.S. commitment, and political changes in other countries in the region.

If any, the least I will bet my faith: that "US commitment".

The said commitment is only till the time the Americans don't have to put boots on the ground. China for all its belligerence and dislike for its neighbours, can cause massive devastation to the American economy without a single bullet being fired. Yes, it will also struggle itself, but it will be able to outproduce anything that the US makes.

We can see that the Chinese are already weaning several countries off the US (Even if it means just a "change in management"). Countries fearing inflation and a weakened purse are tempted to chase the Chinese option. It's not just about debts but about everything else. Americans are not making it easy for the non-Western/non-White world to choose them by exporting killer inflation all over the world.