Armenian-Azerbaijan 2020 War

[JBH22]

We did wrong in giving pinaka to Armenian. They don't hv plan. It will be bad PR for us.

Takes time to assimilate and build experience to use a new system efficiently.
Now if Armenia wants to poke the bear and sleep with Nato, Russia is just letting the Azeris have a walk in the park.

 

[vin bharat mahan]

We did wrong in giving pinaka to Armenian. They don't hv plan. It will be bad PR for us.

saying this from day one...they should first buy aakash missiles nd anti drone system. which can counter haroop sucide drones. we also hv them (haroop), so we can give Armenia that system which can neutralize Azerbaijan haroop nd barekhter drone. right now i dont think aakash 1s or prime can counter israeli lora missiles. but Azerbaijan also dont hv too many lora missiles. Armenian should buy aakash 1s, anti drone system, loitering munition (like nagastra), MBRL (pinaka) nd artillery guns. that is enough to give good response to Azerbaijan.

 

[vin bharat mahan]

We can give billions of dollars of weapons on probably say 30 year or 50 year no interest loan.... or nominal like at 1% interest or something.

But does Armenia want to fight and win in Karabakh? Does this clown want to win? Is Armenia behaving like a security state, no it is not. Armenians have faced genocide and they are facing that prospect in their face again.... But hullah these guys elected the same piece of shit again after losing one round.

Armenia is a security state, that has to protect itself anyhow, but neither it's public nor it's leaders are behaving in that manner. It is a country that is fated to die. Nobody can change that.

armenia will suffer nd get damaged....but not going to die or assimilate in Azerbaijan or turkey. those days r gone, when u can seeze a country. europe nd american will never let a christian country die. Azerbaijan nd turkey dont hv guts to go against USA, russia nd europe. even other countries dont accept any invasion of Azerbaijan in Armenia. armenian hv good influence in USA politics. USA will definitely intervene, coz that will help them to pro russian Armenian in their side.

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[PETERPIPER]

Armenia is a CSTO member, not Pashinyan. When the war broke out, the Armenian government invoked Article 4 which is similar to NATO Article 5. Azerbaijan is not a part of this alliance and it invaded Armenia proper (not the Nagorno-Karabakh that they claim). CSTO was treaty-bound to intervene on Armenia's behalf. Granted that Putin was busy in Ukraine but nothing stopped him to clear the Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek governments to intervene on Armenia's behalf.

Instead, he publicly favored Baku, struck oil deals with them and held the Central Asian 'stans from intervening. Also, they preferred to stay out, demolishing any trust left in the grouping.

Now after Armenia was beaten raw, it is slowly moving towards the US. Armenians are a strong lobby in the US despite their country's lack of geopolitical significance. Given that Mission Ukraine is a failure, the US will latch on to a scorned ally of Russia. Armenia is the perfect candidate for the next Afghanistanization attempt.

Georgia is already pro-NATO and hates Russia. Armenia will become the second one. Putin just shot his own foot.



Does Putin realize the damage he is causing to Russia's trustworthiness within CSTO?

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will be watching how Putin treats Armenia from hereon. If he continues to sideline them, they will start trying to branch out; first with China (as it is a safer and acceptable option for Putin) and then slowly with the Americans and who knows, maybe even us. They are watching that we have stepped up our efforts to arm Yerevan. Now I am not saying that we will replace Russia, but all this kicking Armenia around will definitely not go unnoticed.

The contested area wasn't recognized as part of Armenia. This is why they couldn't intervene as the internationally recognized Armenian borders were not invaded. I could be wrong but Armenia does not official recognize the region too.

Armenia also didn't commit its military to the contested area too.

 

[assassin162]

She is Albanian friend. The country of bunkers.

There is controversy on this. Many accounts say her father was Armenian and her mother was Albanian. She was born in the then Ottoman empire.

 

[Tshering22]

The contested area wasn't recognized as part of Armenia. This is why they couldn't intervene as the internationally recognized Armenian borders were not invaded. I could be wrong but Armenia does not officially recognize the region too.

Armenia also didn't commit its military to the contested area.

I am not talking about this confrontation but the first war. Artsakh was in question, but Azerbaijan attacked Armenia proper in 2020. This was openly backed by the Turks and the West dithered as they were too busy figuring out whether to drink Clorox or not as a COVID cure.

If it were just Artsakh, the world would have ignored it. Remember that case where Azeri troops captured an Armenian female soldier, raped her, gouged out her eyes, stuffed them in her mouth, tore her breasts and severed her head?

That was a war crime along with a host of other barbaric Islamist horrors they did.

 

[Rango]

I have never read up on the Iran v/s Turkey past history. Seems like another potential future conflict in this disaster zone. Below is from the PDF Karabakh thread. Mr. Z is a Persian. Mr. T is a Turk.

 

[Rango]

Over the past 30 years, the Azeris have destroyed every single church in Nakhchivan. All Armenians who used to reside in this region are now gone. It was part of the Armenian Kingdom 2,000 years ago. If you look at a map, it should still belong to Armenia.

Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Master Chief]

Armenia is a CSTO member, not Pashinyan. When the war broke out, the Armenian government invoked Article 4 which is similar to NATO Article 5. Azerbaijan is not a part of this alliance and it invaded Armenia proper (not the Nagorno-Karabakh that they claim). CSTO was treaty-bound to intervene on Armenia's behalf. Granted that Putin was busy in Ukraine but nothing stopped him to clear the Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek governments to intervene on Armenia's behalf.

Instead, he publicly favored Baku, struck oil deals with them and held the Central Asian 'stans from intervening. Also, they preferred to stay out, demolishing any trust left in the grouping.

Now after Armenia was beaten raw, it is slowly moving towards the US. Armenians are a strong lobby in the US despite their country's lack of geopolitical significance. Given that Mission Ukraine is a failure, the US will latch on to a scorned ally of Russia. Armenia is the perfect candidate for the next Afghanistanization attempt.

Georgia is already pro-NATO and hates Russia. Armenia will become the second one. Putin just shot his own foot.



Does Putin realize the damage he is causing to Russia's trustworthiness within CSTO?

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will be watching how Putin treats Armenia from hereon. If he continues to sideline them, they will start trying to branch out; first with China (as it is a safer and acceptable option for Putin) and then slowly with the Americans and who knows, maybe even us. They are watching that we have stepped up our efforts to arm Yerevan. Now I am not saying that we will replace Russia, but all this kicking Armenia around will definitely not go unnoticed.

Looks like Armenia is OK with losing Karabakh.. They never anyway claimed it as part of their sovereign territory by annexing it.. In a perverse war, this opens up both Armenia and Azerbaijan to NATO membership... since they would be within their internationally recognized borders.. The Nogarno Karabakh issue gave Russia enormous leverage over both Armenia and azerbaijan.. Now they lost it..
Anyway, Russia because of its involvement in Ukraine, was not in a position to intervene on behalf of Armenia, so it had already lost the deterrence factor against Azerbaijan.
But, but, during the 2020 war, there was no Ukraine war ongoing, and it cynically left Armenia to the dogs.. Russia is a net loser..

 

[Master Chief]

We did wrong in giving pinaka to Armenian. They don't hv plan. It will be bad PR for us.

Armenia has a plan.. US troops were conducting exercises in Armenia proper.. maybe they are still there as deterrent..
Iran forces are massed up at the border, to act against any move against Syunik province.
India will continue to ship weapons to Armenia.. and they will be of value, if deluded Turks/Azeris ever make a move on Syunim province in the bot so distant future..

 

[Master Chief]

The contested area wasn't recognized as part of Armenia. This is why they couldn't intervene as the internationally recognized Armenian borders were not invaded. I could be wrong but Armenia does not official recognize the region too.

Armenia also didn't commit its military to the contested area too.

Russia could have deterred the 2020 war.. But, they chose to not intervene.. Russia borders Azerbaijan.. They could have put counterpressure on them, as Azerbaijan is not a member of CSTO, but Armenia is.... But, Putin was busy playing 56d chess..
Whatever Armenia's loss.. Russia is a net loser in the Caucasus..

 

[Waanar]

I have never read up on the Iran v/s Turkey past history. Seems like another potential future conflict in this disaster zone. Below is from the PDF Karabakh thread. Mr. Z is a Persian. Mr. T is a Turk.


View attachment 223255

It's a pretty complex relationship. Iran backs Assad while Turkey backs FSA.
Both are wary of Kurds. Turkey is downright paranoid while Iran is a little more reasonable. Hence, Turkey and Iran share intelligence with each other against Kurds.

KRG in Iraq also helps both sides (Barzani, the leader of the regime is corrupt and a Kurd version of sepoy). Recently, PJAK, the Kurdish separatist group demanding secession of Rojhelat from Iran was pushed out of border areas of Iraq by KRG.
Similarly KRG attacked YBS (Yazidi militia backed by Kurds with similar ideologies to YPG) on behest of Turkey.

So Iran and Turkey join hands when it comes to killing Kurds but are otherwise fighting on every issue.
Reason why Iran is against Azerbaijan taking over NK region or Armenian border is because Northern Iran has a sizeable ethnic Azerbaijani populace and Azerbaijan right across the border would most definitely fan the flames of separatism there. (Keep in mind Azerbaijan and Israel cooperate with each other frequently, especially when it comes to Iran.)

Also interesting is the name of the Iranian poster in the pic here. Zartosht (farsi for Zoroastrian) is a telling sign. Even though apostasy is punishable by death in Iran, there has been a silent revolution of either reconversion to Zoroastrianism or conversion to Christianity. It won't be visible on paper or survey yet but it's happening and at a pretty good rate.

This will be a game changer if the mullah regime gets weak at any point during a hypothetical war. Islamic Republic of Iran can NOT rely on its own people to not rebel.

Very interesting future for the ME region ahead.

 

[MIDKNIGHT FENERIR-00]

Russia is the ultimate loser of this conflict. Armenians will go the Georgia route now since they know they can’t trust loser Russia anymore. The leverage they had on Armenia is gone now. Armenia has to prepare for the final conflict now. The jihadi fake Turks won’t stop until they take all of Armenia and genocide the people there. They have been hard at work trying to salami slice Armenia proper since the last war in 2020 as preparation for this final conflict.

 

[Automatic Kalashnikov]

 

[assassin162]

 

[PETERPIPER]

I am not talking about this confrontation but the first war. Artsakh was in question, but Azerbaijan attacked Armenia proper in 2020. This was openly backed by the Turks and the West dithered as they were too busy figuring out whether to drink Clorox or not as a COVID cure.

If it were just Artsakh, the world would have ignored it. Remember that case where Azeri troops captured an Armenian female soldier, raped her, gouged out her eyes, stuffed them in her mouth, tore her breasts and severed her head?

That was a war crime along with a host of other barbaric Islamist horrors they did.

Russia could have deterred the 2020 war.. But, they chose to not intervene.. Russia borders Azerbaijan.. They could have put counterpressure on them, as Azerbaijan is not a member of CSTO, but Armenia is.... But, Putin was busy playing 56d chess..
Whatever Armenia's loss.. Russia is a net loser in the Caucasus..

The contested area was not even recognized by most countries in the world as being Armenian land(which is an unfortunate state of affairs for Artsakh). Armenia didn't even recognize Artsakh as being a part of Armenia.

If Armenia didn't not recognize it as part of Armenia it indirectly acknowledges the other sides claim to the land,how can the CSTO come to their aid over an unrecognized region? They would have to declare war on Azerbaijan. They won't even do that after their own soldiers got killed lots of times(helicopter shot down,vehicles destroyed). If Transnistria gets attacked by Ukraine/Moldova Russia can't call on the CSTO either. The same as the regions in Georgia.

Also the main economic trading partners are Europe and USA:

Azerbaijan Major Trade Partners – Countryaah.com

Rank	Country (Exports To)	Trade Value (thousands)	Share (%)	Growth (% 5yr)
1	Italy	19,218,025	40.75	1,090.08
2	United States	6,012,870	12.75	23,043.32
3	Israel	3,605,552	7.64	1,013.72
4	India	2,431,586	5.16	45,056.44
5	France	2,322,144	4.92	3,371.89
6	Spain	1,497,473	3.18	26,586.12
7	Indonesia	1,411,071	2.99	990.85
8	Netherlands	1,352,621	2.87	9,345.04
9	Chile	933,981	1.98	NA
10	United Kingdom	924,090	1.96	13,939.78

Immediate economic sanctions would have ended the war very quickly.


Also have you not also put two and two together? Israel and Turkey also supplied lots of precision weaponry and drones to Azerbaijan. If they had none of those drones,missiles,etc they would have not won.

Those weapons have European and American components. The only reason Azerbaijan bought them was to attack Artsakh. So if the EU and USA put technical and economic pressure on Turkey and Azerbaijan they could have stopped the war much easier. They could have banned weapon sales to them. But they keep selling them sophisticated weapons. They wanted Azerbaijan to win the war.

They never sold them to Armenia.

This is why I find everyone blaming russia as the main reason for the loss as curious,when the major economic support to Azerbaijan came from us in the west and it wasn't the russian weapons that made the difference but Turkish and Israeli weapons,ie,western ones.

 

[Tshering22]

The contested area was not even recognized by most countries in the world as being Armenian land(which is an unfortunate state of affairs for Artsakh). Armenia didn't even recognize Artsakh as being a part of Armenia.

If Armenia didn't not recognize it as part of Armenia it indirectly acknowledges the other sides claim to the land,how can the CSTO come to their aid over an unrecognized region? They would have to declare war on Azerbaijan. They won't even do that after their own soldiers got killed lots of times(helicopter shot down,vehicles destroyed). If Transnistria gets attacked by Ukraine/Moldova Russia can't call on the CSTO either. The same as the regions in Georgia.

Also the main economic trading partners are Europe and USA:

Azerbaijan Major Trade Partners – Countryaah.com

Rank	Country (Exports To)	Trade Value (thousands)	Share (%)	Growth (% 5yr)
1	Italy	19,218,025	40.75	1,090.08
2	United States	6,012,870	12.75	23,043.32
3	Israel	3,605,552	7.64	1,013.72
4	India	2,431,586	5.16	45,056.44
5	France	2,322,144	4.92	3,371.89
6	Spain	1,497,473	3.18	26,586.12
7	Indonesia	1,411,071	2.99	990.85
8	Netherlands	1,352,621	2.87	9,345.04
9	Chile	933,981	1.98	NA
10	United Kingdom	924,090	1.96	13,939.78

Immediate economic sanctions would have ended the war very quickly.


Also have you not also put two and two together? Israel and Turkey also supplied lots of precision weaponry and drones to Azerbaijan. If they had none of those drones,missiles,etc they would have not won.

Those weapons have European and American components. The only reason Azerbaijan bought them was to attack Artsakh. So if the EU and USA put technical and economic pressure on Turkey and Azerbaijan they could have stopped the war much easier. They could have banned weapon sales to them. But they keep selling them sophisticated weapons. They wanted Azerbaijan to win the war.

They never sold them to Armenia.

This is why I find everyone blaming russia as the main reason for the loss as curious,when the major economic support to Azerbaijan came from us in the west and it wasn't the russian weapons that made the difference but Turkish and Israeli weapons,ie,western ones.

The issue is not about the country of Armenia in Artsakh but the Armenian people that live there. Artsakh folks are different from the rest of Azerbaijan as chalk and cheese. Even Azerbaijan is split with a portion across Armenia (like East and West Pakistan were at one time), called Nakhichevan.

Artsakh is the same size territory as Nakhichevan. All they need to do is what we and the Paxtanis did; ask the people to relocate in a controlled way so that the issue can be resolved permanently. Erdogan might not let it happen but that's another story.

I know why they bought Western weapons. Azerbaijan is in a sweet spot, geopolitically speaking. They don't have to worry about sanctions because the EU is buying gas from them. They could wipe out all of Armenia and Ursula won't bat an eye.

There would be some pressure from the US because they are looking for their next Ukraine and Armenia (Pashinyan is feeling betrayed by Russia) is the perfect candidate. While Georgia hates Russia, they don't want to repeat the 2008 again.

Putin used the excuse of Russian-speaking population of Ukraine being in danger to launch his strike. He could have used the same defence for the ethnic Armenians to ask the other CSTO to help them.

My simple point is the CSTO is dead in the water as we discuss here. From hereon, Not a single member would ever partake in any alliance military operation except for some chai-biscuit conferences which are nothing more than paid holidays for these politicians

 

[Abhijeet Dey]