Can India do a Falklands war type campaign if PLAN takes over Andamans

Let's say PLAN (with help of Myanmer and Pakistan) takes over Great Nicobar island, builds military bases there. Can India do a naval campaign like the Falklands Islands to liberate the Island? Say the timeline is 2020.
I would like to see well thought out detailed analysis from the members - PLAN strengths and equipments, IN strengths and equipments and their strategy/ tactics of the two sides.

ace009 said:

Let's say PLAN (with help of Myanmer and Pakistan) takes over Great Nicobar island, builds military bases there. Can India do a naval campaign like the Falklands Islands to liberate the Island? Say the timeline is 2020.
I would like to see well thought out detailed analysis from the members - PLAN strengths and equipments, IN strengths and equipments and their strategy/ tactics of the two sides.

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If a country is Dumb enough to let that happen in the first place, there is nothing such S**theads can do afterwards.

One simple question how will PLAN maintain supply lines thousands of miles away??

I guess mynamar will be an useful ally for china .They can very well maintain supply through Myanmar .

SHASH2K2 said:

I guess mynamar will be an useful ally for china .They can very well maintain supply through Myanmar .

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Still have to go thru water for supplies to an island, too much resources would be needed and nothing gained.

Andaman

Battlefield:
The battle field may Andaman sea..
Once Andaman is secure battle for Bay Of Bengal can Begun..

Reality of Andaman:
Andaman host more than Three Airfield capable of lunching SU-30MKI, And Mig-29k..
Andaman also have AntiShip Batteries ( Silk worm or Styx ) A brahmos regiment will be deployed if needed..
Andaman also have more XXXX no of Infantry with Armour ( T-72M1 AJAYA M1/2 )..
Andaman present AD consist of SA-6 and in future Barak8 & BMD can be deployed..

PLAN strategy & Requirement:
1. Destruction of Indian Defense
2. Cutting of Indian Reinforcement via main land through bay of Bengal
3. Landing of troops..
4. Elimination of defenders and capture of major objectives in Island...


1. PLAN can only engage not with 1 CV but 3-4 to have a effective suppressive fire on defenders, Here IN & IAF combine of 3-4 squadron will be on red alert with AWACS station near the island from main land also from Island, And PLAN have 1 squadron of J15s with KA-31 AWACS, Which is not feasible..

The only way is to bomb the Island via Cruise missles on board Ships, But this is also endager the ship to be close near island, If any IN UAV or radar catch their position they will be destroyed by long range SU-30MKI with PJ-10, Other Option is via Submarines, But they too under thread via Navy`s TU-142 and IL-38SD, P8-I in that area with escorts form Island..

P8I And other Big Birds can be refueled from IL-78 from Main land..


As the first Objective out of four is not feasible rest are also not feasible, hence its not possible..


Conclusion:
Its not possible for next 100 years, By then India too developed more than 3 AC/CV to counter such offensive not to mention few narrow passages to get inside IOR ( A perfect Ambush for IN ), Trade lanes are under our control and always be..

If China gets a base on Nicobar they will be supplied through Burma. IN would be able to wipe out any PLAN fleet sent there, but the threat would be from land based fighters. A good cruise missile attack ought to knock an airbase long enough for a marine landing. Real question if marines would have enough to defeat the garrison.

Nope I don't think this is possible even hypothetically. Nothing less than a suicide attempt. No way the supplies can be maintained because of Indian air superiority in the BoB. We already have tri service base in AnN. Where will the landing party come from? Burma? Theatre of war expands to Burma then. By sea all the way from China? I don't think so. Last of all Big Uncle is a bigger threat to any Chinese venture into IOR.

What is this? Is tri services command in Andamans will be sleeping throughout? I mean come on now. Ace come on mate we are not writing scripts for movies here

OK Guys - let me say what I had in mind ... you guys can tell me how probable it is.

1. This scenario is only meaningful in the context of a India-Pakistan/ China war, where hostilities are breaking out in multiple fronts. The thrust at the Islands will be essentially aimed at keeping the merchant marine open for PRC - especially oil and raw materials.

2. (If I am in charge of PLAN operations to take Great Nicobar ) The first idea would be to get a supply lien through Burma. It won't be easy - the allies did it in WW-2, called the famous "Burma road". It would be a long winding road through the mountains and jungles of Burma, but it will reach the coast all the way from China. Once this road is established (a lot of work has already been done, by the way), I would push thousands of tonnes of supplies into the PRC built ports in China - pretext, trade and infrastructure development in Burma. The Junta will keep quiet since the PRC is their godfather. I will also secretly build up a significant naval personnel presence in these ports. Remember, you do not need to have destroyers and aircraft carriers to invade a little inhabited island. You need infantry (marines) and engineers and equipment and shallow water vessels to land them. One container ship from PRC, stationed in Burma can be modified to carry several landing crafts for an invasion.

3. The first shots obviously will not be fired in this front. The opening volleys will come through Pakistan in the west, followed by PLA/ PLAAF in the north east. Once India is engaged in these areas, PLAAF will carry out a series of sorties on the eastern shores and the Andaman Islands, probably using missiles and LGBs from their "crappy fighters" like J-7Bs and JH-7s.

4. The Tri-services bases in the islands can be carpet bombed by PLA missiles and PLAAF "suicide" mission fighter/ bombers. A few well targetted missiles can take away the airfields for 2-3 days, which is all they need. As IAF gets engaged in thwarting PLAAF, a PLAN task force will sail from Burma and take over a small area of Great Nicobar island with marines, engineers and hundreds of tonnes of equipment. The PLAN engineers will start assembling shore based guns, SAM batteries and preparing an airfield. With the heavy equipment and engineering skills PLAN will have a working airfield in place in 2-3 days, where a squadron of PLAAF J-10B and PLAN J-15B fighters can be flown over from China/ Burma and stationed. A squadron of PLA attack Helos and a few transport Helos can also be sent over to the island.

4. Now with air cover in place, PLAN can start sending in supply ships, frigates and destroyers from mainland China. PLAN can also station a SSBN/ SSGN in the Great Nicobar island. Once a fleet of ships is in place, PLAN can then start building a naval port/ base in the island, while PLA/ PLAAF can start increasing their aircraft fleet. The first toehold will then become the launching point for PLA assault on the rest of the island.


If you think this is unconvincing, please read about Iwo Jima ...

Falklands was a problem for Britain because it was far away from the British mainland and it was close to Argentina coast. But in India's case all our islands are close to the mainland, and well within the operational range of the IAF. If China ever manages to take the island then the IAF launching from the mainland would pummel them to submission. IMO with the exception of US, no other country can take and hold any Indian islands.

Phenom said:

Falklands was a problem for Britain because it was far away from the British mainland and it was close to Argentina coast. But in India's case all our islands are close to the mainland, and well within the operational range of the IAF. If China ever manages to take the island then the IAF launching from the mainland would pummel them to submission. IMO with the exception of US, no other country can take and hold any Indian islands.

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Actually Phenom, if you look at the map, Great Nicobar Island is about 2500 kms from Indian mainland. That is at the very extreme of even the MKI range. It would not be easy for IAF to pummel a chinese presence on Great Nicobar island, especially if they have their own air defense ship/ system.

The question is how much resources can China put for the defense of captured island. i would say not much...
If its after 3-4 years, we wont need MKI to do it but Mig29k taking off from closely stationed carrier will just do fine and take out any air assets that island defense would have, Ships will do the rest. Not to forget C-17 we will have for serious troop deployment capability as well after the bombing of that island. If Burma supports China than bomb them, I for one will fully support that what ever the consequences. Sooner or later we have to teach these countries surrounding India a lesson militarily or otherwise to not act against Indian interests.

But China wont be able to take Indian island during peacetime. After a long war, there is definitely a possibility

@ace009

If they launch from Chennai, great Nicobar is only 1600 KMs, MKI has almost double that range. Using refullers even Mirages can target any forces located in that region

Phenom said:

IMO with the exception of US, no other country can take and hold any Indian islands.

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If France wanted to take over Car Nicobar, it could be done with relative ease. There isn't much protecting it and a nice juicy airbase with no combat aircraft. One Mistral should be plenty in a sneak attack. Move in a couple SAMP-T and Rafale squadrons and 4getaboutit.

India is PROTECTING its Islands .It is not as if they are left undefended

Lakshdweep is being eyed by the Pakistanis for mounting terror attacks on our coastline

And Andaman and Nicobar are very well defended because they are at the mouth of the Mallacca straits ; which are so very important and lucrative from the Global trade perspective

Infact the strangle hold over Andamans and Nicobar ALONE will prove a MASSIVE detterent to PLAN .

Because We can make life HELL for them during war by using our bases at Andamans

@ ARMAND

SO when are you coming to attack us .Hope to see you soon ,Bring everything that you have got

Also Bring some best quality CHAMPAGNE so that we can later CELEBRATE INDIA's Victory

till 2020 i dont think china will have enough littoral capabillity to invade aisland thousand of miles away ,they can certainly invade tiwan but not andaman.

Now click on the link below:

http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/google_map_Andaman_Nicobar.htm

Navigate and check the co-relationship with Mainland India, Myanmar, Malacca Straits.

pankaj nema said:

India is PROTECTING its Islands .It is not as if they are left undefended

Lakshdweep is being eyed by the Pakistanis for mounting terror attacks on our coastline

And Andaman and Nicobar are very well defended because they are at the mouth of the Mallacca straits ; which are so very important and lucrative from the Global trade perspective

Infact the strangle hold over Andamans and Nicobar ALONE will prove a MASSIVE detterent to PLAN .

Because We can make life HELL for them during war by using our bases at Andamans

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Oh really? I doubt Mi-8s are going to do jack to Tiger attack helos. There is practically no garrison on Car Nicobar and it has the only mil spec airbase in the whole chain.