Year 2035: Some possible scenarios

Discussion in 'International Politics' started by Sakal Gharelu Ustad, May 21, 2012.

  1. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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  2. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    There might be some reshuffling and entries and exit before final structure comes up. It would be very stupid to assume that Europeans would not come together to fight an emerging Asia.

    That would be interesting to see, but the chances are highly unlikely given the deep divisions between them. Although, 20 years is a small time but we can probably see some new inventions that could reduce our dependence on oil. In that case Arab world would again turn into beggars or nomadic.

    We have seen a little discussion here on China. It would be interesting to see how they convert to democracy, which seems to be inevitable given the economic liberalization. But political transition comes with a lot of blood. The only way in which communist party could delay is to engage in adventures with Taiwan, India or other neighbours. The chicoms could explain the situation of internal politics better.

    The US economy would definitely see a slide, more in the relative sense rather than absolute because of the rise of India and China. How they would react to the situation would again be interesting to see.
     
  3. balai_c

    balai_c Regular Member

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    ^^ Sakal, you are ignoring the elephant in the room, the two least talked about regions of the world:Africa and Latin America. Africa is undergoing a silent revolution- rise in prosperity and economic muscle. They must be discussed if any meaningful gaze to the future is undertaken.
     
  4. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    ^^ Yeah. I just replied to Aerokhan above.

    But you brought a great point about rise of Africa. I agree the region is bound to see some great strides on the economic front. I might be bit ignorant when I say this. But I believe these nations would still be small to have any significant difference to the power structure of the world. The only way forward for them to assert themselves through a pan-African forum. If fragmented they would definitely achieve prosperity but they cannot dictate the world.
     
  5. civfanatic

    civfanatic Retired Moderator

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    Romney is the Republican party's candidate as per the Republican primaries. Thus, the election will be between Obama and Romney; Ron Paul is excluded this time around, and it is unlikely that he will win any election in the future.
     
  6. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Ron Paul is more popular because of his economic policies.. not the other way. It will not make sense to you unless you unlearn the indoctrination.Kids and doped grown-ups.. huh? Are you part of the generation who created this mess of fractional reserve system with no asset backing? I will explain you the current financial debt based system in the shortest possible manner.

    The current operation principle of banking system is Principle = Principle + debt. For this to hold with respect to a given time frame, the money supply growth rate has to be increasing all the time. Beyond a point, it becomes unsustainable with collosal crashes. The more time passes, the disasters will get bigger and faster if not stopped by taking small hit now instead of big hits later. But then again, everyone looks for their self interests out of primitive human instincts and thereby the inevitable future cannot be avoided with a near certain probability.
     
  7. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Well, the fall of Euro is imminent in the current form is what i meant. Considering the term till 2035, Europe would still be fractioned. They may band up in the future but for the given period, they would not in all probability. Just to let you know, French will get revived by India some time later.


    It will happen sooner or later. All they need is a common enemy. Thirst of the world for energy infront of the dwindling energy sources will eventually work it's magic bringing out survival instincts of the Arabs.

    Indeed. China is still a mystery for me. I am not sure how China is going to unfold and when. But one thing is for sure that it will be on the opposite side of us when shit hits the ceiling.

    Once the reserve currency changes, US has to fall in line or attack other countries to keep it's influence. Either way, it's not a good thing for the world.
     
  8. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Republican convention is not yet over buddy. It is against the rules to endorse Romney as the candidate by the republican party before the convention at tampa especially when any candidate is running. Whether Ron Paul will win or not, his supporters will surely take over the GOP itself eventually and turn it into what it was long before and what it should have been.

    FYI, Ron Paul is near clean sweeping delegates in some states with bloodless coups. Delegates is what matters, not the beauty contests as the lame stream media projects. If romney conducts any meetings, he hardly gets 300 people. That's one presidential candidate media love to project as a presidential candidate. Ron paul on the other hand gets atleast 5000 anywhere anytime.
     
  9. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    US and Europe both will experience demographic change in next few decades as Hispanics in US and Africans and Asians in Europe increase in number. Africans cross over into Europe at Spain and Italy where boatloads of desperate immigrants are detained at islands off the mainlaind of these countries. Italy even had an agreement with Gaddafi to keep away these boats. The West's liberal welfare system will be used against their own society. UK esp has very liberal welfare, providing housing and other facilities to immigrants or refugees as soon as they land up.
     
  10. civfanatic

    civfanatic Retired Moderator

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    Yes, the convention has not been held yet. But it is already clear that Romney will be the victor, based on the results of the primaries. Compare the projected delegates for both candidates and the states that each carries. Ron Paul has no chance to become the GOP's candidate, let alone the President.
     
  11. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    As i said before.. most of them are estimates,not the actual figures. Till the texas and californian primaries happen, one can't say either way as it is now. Don't go by the beauty contests.. Romney couldn't even get the delegate majority in his homestate.. That's how clear it is!! :namaste:
     
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  12. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    ASEAN will develop into something like an EU superstate, without the latter's pitfalls.
     
  13. civfanatic

    civfanatic Retired Moderator

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    What do you mean by "Romney couldn't even gate a delegate majority in his homestate"? He won Massachusetts by a landslide, which was expected.

    The Texas and California primaries are irrelevant now. Romney is so far ahead in the delegate count that Ron Paul has no chance of getting the nomination even if he somehow wins a majority in those two states (which he won't).

    You are free to believe what you want, but you should base your beliefs on facts :namaste:
     
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  14. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Ron Paul indoctrinated kids believes that return to gold is the cure for all the ills just because it is simple to comprehend. So I am not surprised that they buy this idea of Ron Paul clinching the Republican nomination despite looking at the number of Romney wins.

    It is your wish to keep your head buried into the sand!!
     
  15. panduranghari

    panduranghari Senior Member Senior Member

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    My tuppence worth of opinion;

    Euro becomes oil currency.
    USD does not remain global reserve
    OIL becomes very expensive
    Physical unencumbered physical gold becomes very highly prized
    Islamic uprising ends all around the world
    More democratisation of the world
    Reduction in the warfare long term.
    Africa is exploited again by the people around the world
    Population around the world falls dramatically
    Mankind establishes contact
    Nuclear power becomes ubiquitous
    Strong military in India will ensure no foreign aggressions as they happened in the past- no more exploitation of 'Sone Ki Chidiya'
    Amalgamation of smaller states all around the world into bigger nations
    Socialism is really dead and buried
    Decrease in corruption in India
    Global food shortages
    Man moves into space
     
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  16. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    You sure abt that? :cool2: Texas and California primaries are as relavent as every other state. Mitt Romney won the beauty contest for sure in his homestate. But winning delegates is what matters. In Romney's home state, 16 out of 19 congressional district delegates were won by Ron Paul supporters. Rest 22 will be decided at the state convention itself (which didn't happen yet). These district delegates will go and select the state delegates who goes to the republican convention in florida. Atleast for now, Romney is lagging far in the race in his homestate. If Romney supporters colluding with the mainstream republican dirtbags breaks the rules and somehow get Ron paul supporters not to get elected by spreading false information, breaking rules, closing doors on them etc as happened in other states, Romney might have a chance.

    The next question you should ask is what can Ron Paul supporters do when the state delegates are bound by the state to vote for Romney. First thing they can do is, they can abstain from the voting in the first round thereby removing the binding factor for the second round. Or they can simply show the Article 38(which states that delegates can't be bound by state to vote in bulk) of the Republican party rules and vote for Ron Paul. It's funny that the same rule was used by McCain delegate to vote for Romney in 2008 :laugh:

    And yeah, it's best Romney supporters believe that they won till the convention :) I for one, wouldn't rule out anything till the end.
     
  17. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Indoctrinated kids u say?? You are a perfect example of how mainstream media and bankers can manipulate people to their ends. You fail to understand the current perpetual debt based system designed to gaurentee banckruptcy. The debts come to people, hard assets like gold and lands go to the banks. Gold standard or not, the current system is a ----ed up system which is bound to fail. Mainstream financial system indcotrinated people like you are the reason, we project an inevitable collapse. For your sake, i will repeat the current principle of banking system of principle = principle + interest is highly unsustainable in the long run. If you close your eyes and think it's night, be my guest :)
     
  18. latsar

    latsar Regular Member

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    If India could some how not get drawn to a war with Pakistan in the next 5 to 10 yrs then the future of India is quite bright. I am telling this because Pakistan is a failing state and would do anything to reignite nationalism as a last ditch effort to save itself .Further the Chinese would also instigate and entertain Pakistan in this venture so as to neutralize India before it becomes untouchable .India's Armed forces all three of them are in the process of modernization and are suffering from teething problems from technical ,bureaucratic aswell as corrupt politicians.The U.S. and EU would indirectly love see both the Asian giants fight and destroy itself because it would see both their future threat eleminated.India is vulnerable only for the next 5 to 10 yrs after that no one can touch India and Its future is quite bright. The dwindling economy of both the U.S. and EU and their past history to somehow keep their world order and domination makes me suspicious of their intent to do anything positive in this scenario.Indian policy makers should awake up for this possibility and modernize the Armed forces induct and deploy SLBM and Agni V on war footing.This is only my opinion and I might be totally wrong.
     
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  19. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    It would be nice if you could connect together the above beliefs and reasons that would help in their realization. Some are obvious and you can drop them if you like.
     
  20. LurkerBaba

    LurkerBaba Staff Administrator

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    Taiwan is integrated under "one nation two systems".

    PRC becomes a democracy and an ultra nationalist party linked with PLA takes power. To prove it's nationalist credentials, it tries to capture Arunachal Pradesh

    Economic downturn in West means that affluent Indian Hindus (who are mainly right wing btw) migrate in large number back to India. This fueled with the rise of Middle Class results in 2-3 Babri/Godhra type incidents.

    Pakistan breaks up, but those pieces come under the sway of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spillover of resulting chaos to India
     
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