Year 2035: Some possible scenarios

[Razor]

Let me jump-start the crystal ball. There will also be an unprecedented surge in industrialization across the Entire Planet, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. I have observed a notable drop in civil wars throughout the entire continent (other than persistent hotspots like Somalia, Sierra Leone). This oasis of peace might let people in countries like Tanzania, Uganda, Nigeria, Zaire, a rare opportunity to develop their countries and finally usher an era of industrial revolution to their people that was long denied by erstwhile colonial powers. This will let them finally let them use their natural resources that had ravaged the continent through out the 19th and 20th centuary and remove the effects of the resource curse.

The problem with Africa is that most of the nations are artificial. The Europeans just drew some lines on the map. Now, the only thing that might incline these people to work together with minimal conflicts is the prospect of seeing their children eat food and the prospect of seeing their children learn something at school. But these are the common people, not the people in power, they would rather have their own power base. They might think of carving more nations out of Africa as is already seen in the case of South Sudan (created on 9th Jul 2011) and Azawad (declared on 6th Apr 2012). Even though there will be economic development in Africa, I doubt the lives of the people will drastically improve.

This centuary will be one of equality. With the inevitable re-balancing of economic and strategic calculus through out the planet, literacy rates and health indicators might also see a massive rise in every corners of the globe. With multiple power centres co-existing side by side, global wars like the two world wars would become increasingly unsustainable (partly because of the non-availability of resource rich colonies), and also development of the domestic economies of the erstwhile providers of raw materials (nations like India , and regions like sub Saharan Africa).

Conflict is embedded in human nature. I think it's wishful thinking to suggest that their wouldn't be world wars in the future. And it's precisely the lack of resources which will cause these wars/conflicts.
Lets say you have a room and you put two humans in it with one apple. They will probably share it. Now lets say you put 10 humans and an apple, what do you think will happen ?
Saying that there wouldn't be large scale wars in the future is incorrect.

India and also China will witness the rise of massive naval power , henceforth unprecedented in the history of the respective countries. For India that would since the Chola-chalukya maritime empire, and for the Chinese,since the legendary General Zheng He. These would greatly reduce their vulnerability of the maritime trade they experienced since the past 5 centuaries. We are indeed in very interesting times.

Anyway, this is my first jump in the flight of fancy. Do not hesitate to poke around if anything seems too fantastic. I am more than happy to correct myself!

Agreed. Both nations will have pretty awesome navies by 2035.

 

[A chauhan]

Who's gonna supply all that paint?

 

[balai_c]

Conflict is embedded in human nature. I think it's wishful thinking to suggest that their wouldn't be world wars in the future. And it's precisely the lack of resources which will cause these wars/conflicts.
Lets say you have a room and you put two humans in it with one apple. They will probably share it. Now lets say you put 10 humans and an apple, what do you think will happen ?
Saying that there wouldn't be large scale wars in the future is incorrect.

Thanks for the nice rebuttal buddy. War can indeed happen at any point, with anyone. But 2nd world war had a distinct characteristics: availability of raw materials from the colonies, as I mentioned before. Without raw materials, how can the existing great powers create war machines (like ships, tanks, bombs)?
That is one of the reason erstwhile naval powers like Spain, Portugal are minnows today. Nations like USA, Russian Federation have immense possibilities today.

That is also the reason, countries like India, China who have both natural resource and human capital have a great future.

The biggest problem with Africa is the relentless ethnic strife even to this day. Unless they learn to accept their diversity as a source of unity rather than distress, like India have achieved , intra-Africa conflict with continue to happen. And outside powers will continue to take advantage, like they did centuries before.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

"economically better local options available"

Like what?

This partly answers:

In my opinion, river linking is a solution. Not a better one though. Instead of spending humongous amounts of money over big projects, focus should be on implementing water harvesting at very minute costs and investments dispersed under a shared govt-public initiative. We all know how much money will be funnelled out of the country if such projects get started. Even if the govt is strongly bent on linking rivers, linking should not be fully done. several pockets of independent river linkages should be implemented rather than full implementation. Developing local water harvesting initiatives means developing local economies and reducing the choke points. It's easy to take down one big dam and cause huge destruction. strategically bad idea for a densely populated country.

This also explains a bit:

Many experts believe India's water lifeline is the groundwater and not rivers and dams. Rajendra Singh sees future in the revival of local rivers, ponds, baolis and conventional water systems through modern technology. More than 85 per cent rural needs are met from groundwater. In urban areas it is 55-80 per cent. However, the current use of groundwater is not sustainable, while our water bodies are in bad shape.

Thakkar says India needs to make groundwater sustainability the focus of water policy, but planners continue to devote 70-75 per cent of water sector budget on big dams, which actually reduce groundwater recharge. "Even though Bhakra Dam is credited for the Green Revolution, 73 per cent of the irrigation in Punjab is from groundwater," he says.

Rajendra Singh says harvesting just 2-3 per cent of the annual rainfall can be a game changer. "Where there is rainfall, the water should be blocked, stored and used to recharge deficit areas. Instead of spending huge amounts and time on interlinking, we should revive thousands of dying baolis (stepwells) and ponds by cleaning and recharging them. Let us breathe life into our great rivers and make them pollution free, and desilt water storage systems to ensure optimal use," the Magsaysay Award winner says.

Source: The Tribune, Chandigarh, India - Opinions

Many ponds and lakes have died due to negligence in the past. It is cheaper to revive them and build small check dams in the local area rather than build huge dams. Although some small links on the inter-linking project might be good.

Details on various inter-linking projects: Welcome To NWDA
You can find such maps on this website:

 

[civfanatic]

Why did you leave out Russia?
Don't you think Russia, with it's vast resources & living spaces, it's dormant military industrial complex and it's influence on some of it's neighbors has a shot at becoming a new pole in the multi-polar world?

Russia has embarked on a long, slow, but inexorable decline. Its population is rapidly declining, and the only thing keeping its relevance in the world is its vast energy resources and the remnants of its Soviet-era military and industrial complex. Russia will still be important, but I doubt it will ever regain the same status as it had during the Soviet era. It is even conceivable that Russia will join the EU in the future, provided the EU will not collapse and the current trends continue.

America, too, is on the decline, but its decline will be much slower and much longer. I'm tempted to draw a comparison with the Roman Empire, from which America's founding fathers drew considerable inspiration.

 

[Yusuf]

check dams and rain water harvesting alone is not going to solve the problems. We still have river water sharing issues. We still have annual floods and droughts. I think 20 years down the line, dramatic measures will be require to sustain ourselves.

 

[agentperry]

In India another imp thing may come up where corporates actually take over the working of political parties- direct funding for working to ruling parties and entire purchasable democratic setup in place. finally money talks and in India margins could be pretty high provided you have the parliament with you

 

[bengalraider]

Something interesting i found related to the topics we have been talking about here
[video]http://www.slideshare.net/TheEconomist/megachange[/video]

 

[Mad Indian]

check dams and rain water harvesting alone is not going to solve the problems. We still have river water sharing issues. We still have annual floods and droughts. I think 20 years down the line, dramatic measures will be require to sustain ourselves.

Actually they are right. Most of the water for irrigation in Tamil nadu comes from the harvesting of the rain water in the name of Ponds and check dams than from the major rivers. But whats sickening is that these water bodies are rapidly depleting, thanks to encroachment on these ponds by the greedy pigs. The bureacrats and red tap is not really doing anything other than take cash for it. I dont know about others, but TN will surely descend to chaos soon if this present practice is not reversed . Just one year of failed monsoon is enough to create a shell shock reaction.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

^^ Most regions depend on underground water. So, policies that help in recharging underground water should take precedence. But developing local water bodies and removing encroachment from existing ones do not sound as fascinating as river linking.

And agriculture demands maximum supply of water. So, depending on region optimal crops can be chosen. One stark example on this front is Punjab and Haryana. They have one of the best river and canal networks in India but still the underground water level is in red zone in some areas with water table below 60m. Reason, excessive rice plantation. Many farmers were cultivating three crops in a year and the government had to finally ban the third crop looking at the severe conditions.

All the ponds in my village are either encroached upon or they do not get rain water because of unplanned construction. River interlinking cannot solve this coordination problem.

 

[Mad Indian]

You talk about 50m as red levels. But the common depth at which the water can be reached in TN is 300-600m now. Imagine the situation of TN. some think the water problem can be solved by water desalination from seas. I mean really?? How exactly is sea water gonna provide for agriculture which consumes the bulk of water requirements? More cost effective practical way is to create mass rain water harvesting programs and to utilise the rain water to the maximum with the help of ponds and other water resource.


Again in 2001-06 JJ tried to force rain water harvesting on the people of TN. The response she got was so awesome thanks to the negative media focus on the plan by DMK controlled media that she had to abandon it all together.

Another worrying aspect is the sand theft occurring at the river banks. It May sound crazy but without the sand banks to hold the water in its place the water levels Will deteriorate faster than it should. This is happening as we speak now and no one seems to care about it. I don't know when our people are gonna actually care about our environment.

We don't even have to wait for a decade to see that happen. Even now all it Will take to create massive unrest in TN is one failed monsoon

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

^^ I think you are confusing metres with feet. Check your sources again.

 

[Mad Indian]

^^^Oops. Sorry. My mistake. Its 300-600 fts which translates as 100-200m. Some times it is about 650ft or 220m. Even then compare it with punjab .

PS: thanks for correcting the mistake

 

[panduranghari]

By 2035 India either accepts to move away from Democracy thus keeping its territorial integrity intact OR India breaks up into smaller states all demanding independence.

 

[SADAKHUSH]

I will have to sit down for few hours in silent room and gaze into my crystal ball to see the year 2035. It will be interesting to see how many of us will be correct in predicting the future.

 

[aerokan]

By 2035 India either accepts to move away from Democracy thus keeping its territorial integrity intact OR India breaks up into smaller states all demanding independence.

(Assuming we will be in a connected and globalized world) If India is on the rise, then it is hard to break up or move away from democracy. The more economically stronger a country becomes, the more freedom they ask. And the govt's can't ignore those requests as easily as they are doing now. Nobody wants to move away from a country on a growth trajectory unless they are too ruthless and don't let them survive with protests. Naturally u get more liberal tendencies when the economy is on rise. When u have declining economies, things will start looking bleak for democracy.

 

[afako]

And partition by Muslims is the least likely thing to happen. The Indian Muslims are the one who suffered the most because of the partition despite the fact that they beneficiaries were either the Muslims who lived in Pakistan or the Hindus in India. The partition would have been impossible to action without the massive support of the British bureacracy and effort put in to make it happen to secure her strategic interests in this region. Remember that almost all Islamic religious scholars had actually OPPOSED the parition on the basis of religion because according to them it was UnIslamic. And the same reason why Indian Islamic religious scholars today have opposed the indepedance of Kashmir on the basis of religion and affirmed that Kashmir is part of India.
(Deoband fatwa ruffles feathers of Kashmiri separatists)

Nah Nah Nah.

Fact is Nehru had promised that In case of an Undivided India with the Stupid Nehru at the Helm, Deobandi would be recognized as the Sole Authority of Indian Muslims. Jinnah offered nothing better. Hence Deobandi were Selfish in Opposing Partition.

 

[amoy]

1- I'd more interested on things happening in the Arctic Circle and possible competition for rights to own the resource rich region as soon as the Ice cap melts.

2- A resurgent Russia will mean US focus will be limited to single region, which means India and China gets more assertive in their backyard i.e IOR & SCS respectively.

3- If above 2 scenarios happen, that means China can use this opportunity to do some adventurous stuff in SCS and Taiwan.

4- Influence of Europe will dwindle and a new Space race will be in progress between the economic powerhouses to establish and gain access to resource rich asteroids and our moon.

5- Technology will significantly improve.

your #1 is closer and closer

Russia establishes state agency for North East Passage
Russia establishes state agency for North East Passage

Russia has announced a new law on commercial navigation and operation on the North East Passage and has established a state agency which is to price and regulate the North East Passage operations in order to create "navigation safety and the prevention, reduction and control of pollution in the marine environment," the Hong Kong Shipping Gazette reports.

Af MORTEN HUKIÆR JENSEN
Offentliggjort 14.02.13 kl. 13:32

"Besides the North East Passage, the main alternative way from Europe to Asia by sea is via the Suez Canal. But the North East Passage is twice shorter and much safer, and, thus, it is small wonder that more and more European companies are now starting to prefer to deliver their goods to Asia by the North East Passage," said a British International Freight Association (BIFA) newsletter.

According to the newsletter, no Russian regulation on the traffic on the North East Passage has been in place until recently but now the political winds have changed and Russia sees the North East Passage and the Arctic as a major focal point in the years to come.

"Administration of the North East Passage will be important in the coming years as more cargo ships ply the route, making the headquarters a potentially powerful office," BIFA says according to the Hong Kong Shipping Gazette.

Straits Tankers bets on North East Passage

Nordic Bulk: Irresponsible to sail north of Russia without ice class

Nordic Bulk Carriers doubles fleet on North-East passage

 

[sesha_maruthi27]

I think there will be no pakistan in the map.......

 

[average american]

I would be concerned that by 2035 China would be technological advanced enough and with a tremendous manfacturing capacity and manpower that they could produce and operate enought drones to dominate asia if not the entire world.