Myanmar Cozzying Up with the US

[asianobserve]

Every nation acts in its own interest to develop multi dimensional foreign relations. And so far no relation is exclusive. Mind u even our mountain high ocean deep friend Pakistan has been milking the US at the same time for decades without jeopardizing our all weather partnership :thumb:

And spare me from your democratic preaches. Among 3rd world Asian countries isn't Philippines a good pupil? Democracy? u know more than I do abt Philippines - a few families dominating politics, Marcos, Aroyo, Aquino, corruption, no land reform... Once PH had the highest GDP per capita in Asia. Now purely an origin of maids in Hong Kong and Gulf.

And Malaysia - democracy? the ruling party BN (UMNO/MCA/MIC) has never failed a single election in 54 years after independence.

Mind you I'm not preaching democracy. I'm talking about the inevitability of Myanmar's democratisation (which I am referring to the Junta's letting go of its iron control). But if democracy as a general concept is brought into the mix then let me tell you that both the Philippines and Malaysia have better records ta it than China. The Philippines have corruption problem while Malaysia is threading so carefully about diving into American style noisy democracy. But both are still more open and participatory systems than China's CCP is the only correct monkey in the room.

 

[Ray]

I find a lot of naivety going on here.

Not quite.

An attempt to see reality to be precise.

That Suu Kyi will win is indicative of the fact that she won a landslide the last time, when the controls of the junta were firm and beyond doubt.

The current dispensation in the junta has liberalised in a manner that is unimaginable given the earlier experience.

Therefore, with the hold of the junta having been diluted by the junta itself, it is evident that the chances of Suu Kyi overwhelmingly winning at the hustings appears plausible.

It would be highly odd to believe that the junta loosened its hold and liberalised only to have elections, knowing fully well that Suu Kyi has a great chance of overwhelmingly winning, and then imprison Suu Kyi once again.

 

[asianobserve]

If there is a fair elections held tommorrow Su Kyi will undoutedly win. Rangoon alone, which was caprciously dethroned by the Junta as the country's capital (in favor of a jungle enclave) but still the most populous economic center, will already deliver the victory for her.

 

[ice berg]

If there is a fair elections held tommorrow Su Kyi will undoutedly win. Rangoon alone, which was caprciously dethroned by the Junta as the country's capital (in favor of a jungle enclave) but still the most populous economic center, will already deliver the victory for her.

Who win the election is irrelevant. Who ever controls the military controls the country. And we all know it wont be Su Kyi. Without the backings of the military, you wont last long. It is absurd to think that the junta will give all their powers away. We dont live in a fairytale, boys.

 

[amitkriit]

Is Myanmar's new game good for us is the question. From Indian perspective neither US nor Chinese presence serves our interest. Seems like Myanmar is playing a balancing game between the two big powers, with India gaining nothing out of it, so far. India must get out of slumber and strengthen her economic ties with the country, particularly in the energy sector, a lot needs to be done.

 

[amitkriit]

Who win the election is irrelevant. Who ever controls the military controls the country. And we all know it wont be Su Kyi. Without the backings of the military, you wont last long. It is absurd to think that the junta will give all their powers away. We dont live in a fairytale, boys.

There has been a big change of heart inside the Junta. Without Junta's approval things might not have changed so much. Seems like China and it's CCP indoctrinated people haven't been able to pull themselves out of the perfect world they were living in, where everything runs according to the will of the commies sitting in Peking.

 

[Ray]

Who win the election is irrelevant. Who ever controls the military controls the country. And we all know it wont be Su Kyi. Without the backings of the military, you wont last long. It is absurd to think that the junta will give all their powers away. We dont live in a fairytale, boys.

Time alone can tell.

While one does not live in fairy tales, one also does not have to feel that the times of the Dracula monitoring will not get exorcised from Myanmar!

The junta would not have loosened their grip, which they never did inspite of problems they faced earlier, without good reasons.

What are the good reasons, one wonders.

And are those good reasons that compelling?

If they are, what are they?

And cozying up with the US which masterminded their isolation and economic hardship?

Some good reasons, it must be!

 

[ice berg]

Time alone can tell.

While one does not live in fairy tales, one also does not have to feel that the times of the Dracula monitoring will not get exorcised from Myanmar!

The junta would not have loosened their grip, which they never did inspite of problems they faced earlier, without good reasons.

What are the good reasons, one wonders.

And are those good reasons that compelling?

If they are, what are they?

And cozying up with the US which masterminded their isolation and economic hardship?

Some good reasons, it must be!

Time will tell. We will just wait and see what agenda the junta has. It got nothing to do with good or bad reasons. It is only strategic thinking.

 

[Ray]

Time will tell. We will just wait and see what agenda the junta has. It got nothing to do with good or bad reasons. It is only strategic thinking.

What strategic thinking was there on Myanmar's part?

They were doing quite well with China being the Mentor.

Why should they 'go west'?

Suu Kyi is very aligned to the West and of that there is no doubt.

 

[ice berg]

There has been a big change of heart inside the Junta. Without Junta's approval things might not have changed so much. Seems like China and it's CCP indoctrinated people haven't been able to pull themselves out of the perfect world they were living in, where everything runs according to the will of the commies sitting in Peking.

I am not aware that the things have changed so much. The junta is still in power, last time I checked. Things change because they wanted to, not despite of them. That is a big difference there.
Oh btw, China or CCP dont have a monopol on indoctrination. That has existed since age of dawn. Every government has their own agenda. What you call it, is irrelevant.

It is always easy point fingers at others, especially if you live in a perfect world, i guess.

 

[ice berg]

What strategic thinking was there on Myanmar's part?

They were doing quite well with China being the Mentor.

Why should they 'go west'?

Suu Kyi is very aligned to the West and of that there is no doubt.

The fact that they are doing to well, is the very reason that worries them.
There is more to gain by playing one side against another than be wholly dependent on one country alone. The junta have not forgot that they fought against CCP supported factions before. To survive, you have to diversify. The west can be another life line for the junta.
It is as simple as that. Everything else is just illusions.

 

[Ray]

There has been a big change of heart inside the Junta. Without Junta's approval things might not have changed so much. Seems like China and it's CCP indoctrinated people haven't been able to pull themselves out of the perfect world they were living in, where everything runs according to the will of the commies sitting in Peking.

What surprises me is that with China around to help Myanmar all the time, why this sudden change of heart amongst the Myanmar junta.

And a bigger surprise that China allowed a very friendly and helpful neighbour over which it had total control to slip away, more so since strategically Myanmar is very important to China, it being a gateway into the Indian Ocean.

It appears more odd that China allowed their total control of Myanmar to slip, when the other gateway into the Indian Ocean - Pakistan signatures only as a bundle of contradictions and with total unrest and instability.

 

[Ray]

The fact that they are doing to well, is the very reason that worries them.
There is more to gain by playing one side against another than be wholly dependent on one country alone. The junta have not forgot that they fought against CCP supported factions before. To survive, you have to diversify. The west can be another life line for the junta.
It is as simple as that. Everything else is just illusions.

They could have done the same earlier when things were real down and out for them and China came to their help.

Why now, when China has stabilised them, to open up to China's adversary, who they don't like in the first place?

Most surprising a move!

And more surprisingly China which was strategically well placed with Myanmar allowed it to slip. And Myanmar was opening up greater areas for China like Bangladesh for access to the Indian Ocean!

Now, if the US can influence, then things may not be all that comfortable for China!

As it is the US is on a strategy to contain China as is reported in the Chinese media.

 

[Iamanidiot]

Put it simly the junta does not want to be another NoKo

 

[ice berg]

They could have done the same earlier when things were real down and out for them and China came to their help.

Why now, when China has stabilised them, to open up to China's adversary, who they don't like in the first place?

Most surprising a move!

And more surprisingly China which was strategically well placed with Myanmar allowed it to slip. And Myanmar was opening up greater areas for China like Bangladesh for access to the Indian Ocean!

Now, if the US can influence, then things may not be all that comfortable for China!

As it is the US is on a strategy to contain China as is reported in the Chinese media.

It was different back then. The west was out of their reach while China was close.
Now China is becoming to powerful. The junta fears their growing influence in the country. It will be convenient for them to use Suu Kyi as a card to counter balance China.

America has tried to hedge against China for decades. It is nothing new in that.
I will not be to concerned. It is balance the junta wants, not to be dependent on China or the West.

 

[asianobserve]

Myanmar's strategic change of heart (or two-timing): China's new clothes have unraveled!

 

[amitkriit]

It was different back then. The west was out of their reach while China was close.
Now China is becoming to powerful. The junta fears their growing influence in the country. It will be convenient for them to use Suu Kyi as a card to counter balance China.

America has tried to hedge against China for decades. It is nothing new in that.
I will not be to concerned. It is balance the junta wants, not to be dependent on China or the West.

China has become powerful, but it has become scarier and unpredictable. A China which has been hell-bent at creating troubles for all it's neighbors will be rendered completely toothless in near future.

Stop acting like a superpower until u are one.

 

[Ray]

China has been a steadfast friend of those countries she has befriended.

Myanmar is no apple of the US' eye.

One wonders the reason for the change of heart.

It niggles!

 

[amoy]

Not a change of heart at all. From Myanmar's point of view it wants to get out of isolation, and transform itself to a 'democracy'. Like Pakistan Myanmar is in pursuit of its own interest with major world powers, not necessarily tilting towards one, or discarding the other.

Unlike your prediction my guess (not backed by any solid 'polls') is a coalition govmt may come into being after the election as Suu Kyi / NDL, without a clear majority (no more landslide victory this round), may seek compromise with generals to ensure a smooth transition. Besides there's the 3rd force not to be neglected, self ruled minority regions (Kachin, Wa, Shan, Kokang etc.) which have been pro China.

But what is the US to offer Myanmar, other than encouraging 'democracy' in
* Economy
* Military
* and... ??

 

[asianobserve]

But what is the US to offer Myanmar, other than encouraging 'democracy' in
* Economy
* Military
* and... ??

Then why is the Junta bothering to seek specifically Uncle Sam's affirmation? Why not directly to the UN if it's only asking for international acceptance after all China will definitely sponsor it there right?