126 F-35 With weapons, customisations, training, bases and local assembly is easily >$50bn.
Rafale numbers are going to be >100 for sure
Without CISMOA, BECA and dozens of other bilateral agreements F35 will never be sold to India. If India rejects this then it won’t be granted access, the US ripped out a lot of gear from the c130 and C17s, the f35 as a next gen fighter aircraft is FAR more advanced with much more complex gear that won’t be transferred to India without such agreements.
The sales of C-17, p8, apache etc are all in a different category to the f35. F35 is a strategic asset and a massive amount of work will have to go on to get them cleared by both sides.
Final assembly of the US’s frontline stealth aircraft in a nation that’s not a NATO or treaty ally with US is crazy talk.
2023 timelines are crazy, it will take over a decade to even come to an agreement on the deal if started today. There isn’t even a requirement for this aircraft yet so at best talks begin in 2021.
Knowing IAF very well, they will probably by another 36 Rafales last minute around 2025 when the Rafale line is about to close, for exorbitant prices. Till then they'll dangle about. I see Rafale as a perfect Jaguar replacement. Currently only 60 Jag are slated for upgrades and the older ones will slowly be phased out and eventually we need 72-90 Rafales to replace them, which can be done by 2030. I don't see Rafale or SH having a good chance in the IN if the F-35 ends up being discussed. Actually for IN & IAF, there isn't a better choice than the F-35. IN can easily operate the F-35B from INS Vikky, IAC-1 and future LPDs while operating the F-35B/C from IAC-2. They would provide IN a level of flexibility that it has never had but always wanted, it can base the F-35B on shore or on LPDs or one of the Carriers and use it for a wide ranging set of ops from beach assaults to shore defense to assault on enemy ships. IN can actually drop the need for a Naval LCA which for them adds no value. While IAF can easily use 15 sqds of LCA mk1A and LCA mk-2.
I agree that FGFA and F-35 buys don't go together, If IAF is interested now in the F-35 it's probably because of failing talks on the FGFA. We can't buy both, we'd have to choose one or the other. Why do you say there isn't a requirement for this aircraft. IAF currently does have a requirement for an imported SEF and F-35 fits this bill quite nicely.
Sorry but your assumptions about price are completely baseless, incorrect and far from real facts. Based on deal values of current F-35 offers across various contests, this figure will be far less, I reckon we can get 126 F-35 As for well between 27-30 Billion roughly the same cost of the Rafale under MRCA. I also agree that we won't get full-tot but we aren't getting it for PAKFA either. We can at best hope for 25-30% TOT on critical items to keep fleet flying. However local final assembly would available.
Again without CISMOA, BECA and other agreements, India did and continues to buy plenty of platforms from the US, so you're being silly at best. I always say, don't say never, you will always end up seeing exactly what you thought would never happen, happen. Not signing CISMOA or BECA will only mean that our F-35s will have home made datalinks, comms, IFFs which is perfectly fine. You forget 126 F-35A with options for more is very big dangling carrot and it would be silly of LM or USG to overlook it especially when de-risking the F-35 further only stabilizes the program more. Yet, I am also a realist as said, it would be a good litmus test for Indo-Us relations. India is too big or powerful for it to be contained as a treaty or NATO ally, the only way forward is a strong strategic partnership.
C-17 (is a strategic airlift aircraft), C-130J is the premier aircraft for SF (SF are strategic assets) deployments, P-8I is IN's prime maritime long range recon and attack platform designed to kill track & pesky Chinki and Puki subs (these pose a bigger threat than any fighter in their inventory because most of our Naval assets don't have ATAS), Apaches are strategic assets in their own rights with 22 on order for IAF and another 39 coming for IA (to be used by Strike corps for punitive strikes deep into enemy heartland). S-70 or MH-60 will most likely win the 100+ Naval Medium helo deal (these will the primary assets for naval recon, SF movements and sub hunting)
To suggest that these are by any means less important or strategic or useful than fighters is silly. The last time IAF shot a bird down using a fighter in anger was in 1999 (18 years ago) when it shot down the Puki Atlantique. The last time IAF used C-17 and C-130s was as early as August last year for flood relief where hundreds if not thousands were helped.
Delays occur in deals which are competitive. A F-35 deal would have to be G2G one and then things can go on pretty quick, check C-17, C-130J, Apache and Chinook deals, all done is decent timelines, it didn't take generations. By 2023 LM will be churning out 160 F-35s a year. If talks began now, we could conclude an agreement by 2022/23 and we could easily see the first F-35s landing in 2025/26 well in the timelines of the imported SEF. The massive amount of work required for such a deal is not an excuse not to undertake the work. If an imported SEF is a must than there isn't a better aircraft than the F-35.
