Is CHINA getting ready to attack INDIA?

[naseem]

@Energon, India has a decisive advantage of terrain. The better infra is on the side of China and that infra is nor so very close to Indian border. But the toughest areas of India on china border are not very far from plains. I hope you know how it overcomes the infra of China. In a war with china, If India makes a breakthru, we can force our way in as the ability of both forces will continue to diminish but if china makes a breakthru, The ability of Indian forces to defend and counter attack will increase many folds.
I am not a fool to tactics and when I wrote what I did, I was not thumping my chest like third rate muslim armies. The only reason we lost 1962 was bcoz of NEHRU and if we had used our IAF, that whole battle wud have had a very diff outcome.
Regarding your views about WW1 & WW2, The allied forces did not have manpower to fight germans and Japs together who were far superior to allied forces in terms of tech and equipment. Those wars cud be won only bcoz of Indian manpower and American industrial might for which America till date is getting money from UK for the equipment they supplied to UK.
In case of war with china now, we have clear advantage as we have been able to create better units to fight wars in high altitudes due to Pakistan and Siachin and we also now have an offensive capability across LAC. We will not defend like we did in 1962, we will chose the area to retaliate and defend and take chinese into killing field which they won't even realise. On the Indian side of LAC, every person is against China and pro India and unfortunately for China, same is true on their side of LAC in Tibet.
What Tilts the balance in such a case. The industrial might of china to produce weapons is of no use here. It will take them good about two years to ramp up production to make a decisive change on the battle like it happened in WW2. second is NUKE strikes which can have biggest effect. China is no where close to a BMD shield while we in India have already started deploying one. Our own nuke sub armed with nukes will start war patrols within next 12 months and the INS Chakra armed with nukes is already on Patrol. We have overcome the range advantage which China had in terms of nuke missiles. We can strike them at will all across their eastern coast with nukes and reduce them to rubble shud they attack us with nukes. You might laugh when I wrote about Indian Akula having nukes onboard. Please have a drink on my name for this. You will be proved wrong soon.
Lastly, why any misadventure across LAC will cost China dearly? The biggest importer of chinese goods is USA. The economy of USA is on the upswing, when ever US economy performs better, they start exporting and reduce thr imports which is reverse of what happens in EU. The sealanes of nearly all the exports to the second biggest market of China is India and Africa. What will happen to that in case of war?

Now I wish to ask you a few questions,
1. Who controls IOR and Malacca St. other than US Navy?
2. What will be the effect of blockage of fuel supplies to China of this shipping lane?
3. Which economy will get bigger jolt from such a war, Indian-which has four parallel economies or Chinese which is export oriented?
4. In case of a nuke war, when both side kill over 75% of the population of eachother, which nation will have extended lines of communication over inhospitable terrain, India or China?
5. India may be behind in terms of Industrialisation but an ordinary ironsmith of India makes better and more reliable guns than what best of chinese industry can produce till date.
6. India was not at all effected by the sanctions put against us by US after 1998 nuke tests. In fact our economy started growing at over 6% as a result of that which had never grown at even 5% till then. The biggest consumer of indian produce are Indians. We are the industry and also the Market. That is not the case with China.
7. Lastly, every north Indian has seen wars and also their forefathers have fought wars. Just like every American had to fight for survival to claim America. Please do not under estimate our genes.

China needs to understand that they are facing a nation which has lernt its lessons from 1962, 1965, 1971, 1967, 1987 and 1999. Chinese army is illequipped has no battle experience to fight large scale wars. Experience is the cheapest thing to buy provided you get it second hand.

A war against pakistan and a war against china is totally different experience outnumbering some one and being outnumbered makes a hell of a difference

 

[nirranj]

A war against pakistan and a war against china is totally different experience outnumbering some one and being outnumbered makes a hell of a difference

being out numbered is never a concern, If you know what your advantages and limitations are... Try to read something about how the Finns fought the Ruskies in WWii...

Number of men and machine never determines a war...

 

[t_co]

being out numbered is never a concern, If you know what your advantages and limitations are... Try to read something about how the Finns fought the Ruskies in WWii...

Number of men and machine never determines a war...

If you also recall, the Finns were never able to sustain any major offensives into Russian territory; the war ended with a Finnish semi-surrender since Russia was about to throw a fresh army group into Finnish lines that were not only running short of men, but also of ammunition.

 

[nirranj]

If you also recall, the Finns were never able to sustain any major offensives into Russian territory; the war ended with a Finnish semi-surrender since Russia was about to throw a fresh army group into Finnish lines that were not only running short of men, but also of ammunition.

If you also remember, the Finns had no allies and even if some body has to send some support, couldn't send one as the Northern sea route was sealed by German U boats...

If You apply the same situation here, You cannot seal India's Sea routes (we will have open access to three water bodies as India is a peninsula), India has potential allies who will be happy to see the Chinese with a bloody nose, Terrain favors India (same for the Finns), China is surrounded by potential enemies (soviets had only the Japs to concern)...

being outnumbered is not a matter of concern... Indian forces will be defending, while the chinese will be offending and India has the advantage...

 

[Decklander]

China at present does not even have numerical superiority as they are deployed far inside but they can rapidly mobilise. IA is deployed in strength around the LAC so we have better defences in place. In terms of conventional arms, India has the superiority be it airforce or Navy or Army. a war is never won by just one single factor. It is always a combination of factors which need to be understood and exploited. each and every unit of IA is battle hardened due to anti terror ops in J&K & NE while PLA is mostly untested and lacks real battle experience.

 

[t_co]

China at present does not even have numerical superiority as they are deployed far inside but they can rapidly mobilise. IA is deployed in strength around the LAC so we have better defences in place. In terms of conventional arms, India has the superiority be it airforce or Navy or Army. a war is never won by just one single factor. It is always a combination of factors which need to be understood and exploited. each and every unit of IA is battle hardened due to anti terror ops in J&K & NE while PLA is mostly untested and lacks real battle experience.

Anti terror ops and 'big war' operations are quite different. Ask @Ray for the distinction

 

[trackwhack]

Anti terror ops and 'big war' operations are quite different. Ask @Ray for the distinction

Yes, two military men have to figure war strategy based on what an internet troll says.

 

[bose]

China at present does not even have numerical superiority as they are deployed far inside but they can rapidly mobilise. IA is deployed in strength around the LAC so we have better defences in place. In terms of conventional arms, India has the superiority be it airforce or Navy or Army. a war is never won by just one single factor. It is always a combination of factors which need to be understood and exploited. each and every unit of IA is battle hardened due to anti terror ops in J&K & NE while PLA is mostly untested and lacks real battle experience.

There are few points I would like to bring to notice.

1. China is not comfortable with a prolonged war like scenario, more used to liking of a hit & run tactics. Come with massive numerical superiority and then run back unilaterally... same happened in 1962 war with India & same with Vietnam in late 70's.

2. There was a very valid reasons for China to running back unilaterally back in 1962 war with India, China saw that USA has started tilting towards India as they already started sending arms to India. Moreover the terrain in NE is very difficult to hold on to incase of a counter attacks from Indians.

3. China does not dare to attack any country unless it has a 5:1 numerical superiority in its favor. You will see the Chinese did very badly in Vietnam inspite of huge numerical & material superiority against Vietnam.

4. The present day Chinese army has very little experience in fighting. Its air force & navy hardly has any fighting experience. So any adventure has all the signs of getting horribly bad"¦

From India's perspective we need to keep two things in mind.

1. We have to build the infrastructures as fast as possible say in next 5 years we should be able to reach and deploy very quickly in the border areas"¦

2. India has to increase the boot count into the mountains and build the force to take the fight well into the enemy territory. India needs to have around 500,000 men both active plus reserve armed to its teeth for the China border.

This is the only way to deal with the LIZARDS"¦

 

[roma]

@Energon, India has a decisive advantage of terrain. ......

There are few points I would like to bring to notice.

1. China is not comfortable with a prolonged war like scenario, more used to liking of a hit & run tactics........................
This is the only way to deal with the LIZARDS"¦

guys your posts are toooo good

i would recommend that we dont discuss too much and give things away ?
sometimes a simple idea can be worth a lot ....( sorry , no offence to anyone )

might i suggest that we conc more on how some of the more glaring errors of omission ( eg like in the past lack of proper winter clothing ) , clumsy jacket , poor food rations - how we could improve these ? - and make actual suggestions to min of def - complete with drawing , specifications, types of materials etc ( also eg someone in singapore once "invented" a boot that could withstand a landmine explosion - is that worth getting for our men ? )

no offence to anyone - just my 2 cents worth here .....

 

[roma]

If you also recall, the Finns were never able to sustain any major offensives into Russian territory; the war ended with a Finnish semi-surrender since Russia was about to throw a fresh army group into Finnish lines that were not only running short of men, but also of ammunition.

( im talking to the indian members of dfi here ;.-) .... guys looks like we have some real experts on this forum eh ? i wonder how much they are paid ..... ...... and if theyre full time - actually i cant bother how much theyre paid but their knowledge is deeeeep - probably professionals assigned to monitor and report back on unconventional and innovative ideas and suggestions from our Indian members ( very valuable to photo-copy cats ) ?

that's why i recommend some caution ! - not sure if you guys agree ...

perhaps if we really want to make suggestions , our chief moderator Ray-ji has the modus operandi to make the representations and forward our innovative ideas to the min of def .

 

[Dinesh_Kumar]

With these Chinese crazies one can never tell........they are all cunning and definitely spying on outside world, its part of their basic upbringing and culture....they don't have free and open society like ours.........in fact, they are not warm blooded, but positively reptilian and ruthless race of human beings..............most of them dont give out their actual name when dealing with foreigners, they have "working" name and real name.........i wish we had button to make 'em disappear......the threat of dragon is strangely a unifying force in our divided country......

Man, dragon ("lizard") is so smart that when they need to learn from somebody eg. Soviets and West, inspite of being poor commie state with fewer resources, they are able to show different picture of themselves so other side underestimate them and let down their guard......Soviets transferred lot of Arms tech to 'em cause they thought Mao was 3rd World barbarian, and would have to give sumthing to ensure large communist bloc in Asia..............Mao cleverly turned tables on them.............and survived in China.Later, US under Nixon transferred critical space and nuke tech (when decades of Soviet efforts in espionage cannot uncover US Nuke secrets, how did less advanced Chinese manage?) as he thought it would be competitor for Soviet bloc.........today, slowly unfolding the actual story........

i would recommend that we dont discuss too much and give things away

 

[Ray]

Anti terror ops and 'big war' operations are quite different. Ask @<a href="http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/member.php?u=261" target="_blank">Ray</a> for the distinction

China has high hopes!

Now listen to Babaji's message.

This one does not even cost :inr: 1

 

[Decklander]

To all the great men who have been posting useless stuff here, I wish to draw their attention to Lancasters Linear las & square law. If you read these time tested laws, you will find that whatever I have written here is correct and time tested.
This law basically means that numerical superiority can be overcome by tech but only upto a certain limit and that at the end it is numerical superiority which will hold good. In case of fighting with entrenched enemy you need a ratio of 3;1 to be able to win and it rises to 5:1 for hilly terrain. IA is superior in tech w.r.t PLA and India has four corps deployed to defend chinese border totalling 16 divisions. If we use 3:1 ratio, PLA will have to deploy 48 divisions which is their entire forces in Tibet and also central military districts just to be in a position to launch an attack on India and they will need additional troops to over come the tech advantage of IA.
Now let us consider the exemptions to Lancaster's laws and where it fails.

These laws have been known to fail for assymetric warfare and for Guerrilla warfare and where hit & Run tactics are employed. It is for this reason that IA has responded by going in for Mountain strike corps and more SF batallions for Chinese border.. So all this big talk of better infra on china side and their ability to mobilise rapidly is of no use when you consider the terrain and the strong defensive infra structure which India has in place. Also the tech edge of our equipment and superior IAF with no load restrictions for take off from our side of border give additional advantage and to overcome this advantage china will have to put in place a ratio of over 6:1 to be able to cause any damage to IA.
In 1962, PLA used the Lancaster Linear Law wherein their numerical superiority overcame IA and routed them.
Please read about these laws of warfare. They have never failed since they were put in place.

 

[p2prada]

Any skirmish that could potentially turn into open hostilities would be squashed immediately by the global community because a war between India and China would deal a severe blow to the global economy.

It may be true when it comes to India-Pakistan, but not when it comes to Russia-Georgia or even a future China-Vietnam conflict.

There is no guarantee international pressure will work if China decided to invade India.

The only three potential scenarios of large scale conventional conflicts are:

1. An entirely imbalanced conflict between a powerful country that has an overwhelming military advantage over a weak foe or
2. A war between two economic pariahs in the under developed world that have nothing to lose.
3. If one of the erratic/ unstable countries like North Korea completely lose their minds and attack someone.

This is more in tune with what the "Western world" perceives wars will be in the future. If this was the case, then there is no need for the Americans to continue building up their military with newer technology that are primarily meant for conventional wars, and in the numbers they are planning. But the West was so sure after WW1 that there would be no WW2. Sorry, but we don't want to be caught with our pants down.

India and China do not fit any of these categories. The need for large conventional militaries is no longer related to warring with other nations but rather to ensure parity and project power for the sake of showmanship.

True, but this is not guaranteed. As you mention in your next line...

The "conflict" between India and China is now about who develops faster and takes a bigger pie of the global economy, who assumes control over natural resources and raw materials in other parts of the world and who is able to technologically catch up with the developed world and raise the standard of living.

What's the guarantee the fight for resources won't go nuclear or even a limited war? Both countries will eventually have to deal with scarcity as the economy grows. Even a continent like Africa may not be enough. As the scientists are saying, we are going to need two or three whole planets to sustain the world economy.

As of today we don't really have a reason to go to war for. However we are the only country in the world today that's building up its military openly citing the Chinese bogeyman.

I would prefer we don't go to war, but I would also prefer not be be caught with our pants down when it happens.

 

[p2prada]

In case of fighting with entrenched enemy you need a ratio of 3;1 to be able to win and it rises to 5:1 for hilly terrain.

I thought it was 12:1 for hilly and mountainous regions as told by Ray and OOE.

 

[Decklander]

I thought it was 12:1 for hilly and mountainous regions as told by Ray and OOE.

Their ratio is correct ratio as I had written in such a terrain the square law comes into force so square of 3 is 9 + reserve makes it 12:1 ratio. But with superior tech, you can overcome this ratio and the revised will be 5:1.
During kargil we cud fight with 5:1 ratio as we had air power and arty while PA was constrained to use them. Imagine if PA had also used full arty assault and air power?

 

[p2prada]

Their ratio is correct ratio as I had written in such a terrain the square law comes into force so square of 3 is 9 + reserve makes it 12:1 ratio. But with superior tech, you can overcome this ratio and the revised will be 5:1.
During kargil we cud fight with 5:1 ratio as we had air power and arty while PA was constrained to use them. Imagine if PA had also used full arty assault and air power?

Okay, I got that.

Anyway, what kind of ratio will the Chinese need against us considering both sides will use air force and artillery? I suppose our superior air force is counterbalanced by their superior artillery.

 

[Decklander]

Okay, I got that.

Anyway, what kind of ratio will the Chinese need against us considering both sides will use air force and artillery? I suppose our superior air force is counterbalanced by their superior artillery.

The Lancaster equation are meant for conventional war. The linear law is about the old fashioned wars with swords/spikes/ arrows and the Square law is about modern warfare using guns and tech. In case China attacks India, it will have to come out of its dug in positions to assault our positions. They have arty and so do we have, they have airpower and so do we have. Army-to-army, we are even, but in airpower we are superior plus we have advantage of terrain. This nullifies their advantage in terms of arty. The chinese even with an ability to move 50 divisions against IA due to their superior infra will not be able to defeat IA as the last mile has to be in open against a dug in opponant. That too provided IA & IAF does not carry out assymetric warfare using heliborne and SFs assault on thr superior infra to delay induction of these troops into battle or do not use our Tibetten frnds to attack deep inside to slow down thr movement by forcing them to be very conscious of thr movement. few landmines and few ambushes can completely change the order of battle in terms of time factor.

In Navy, I was always called a very wicked Brahmin Pakistani for the kind of tactics I used in simulated warfare and also showed the ability to carry them out when, Acting as enemy force, I landed my MARCOs to take out Flag officer Commanding Goa in one such excercise from subs and attacked NOFRA in Mumbai Using F-16s instead of the fleet in harbour. I was called a Nazi but I fought back and told the FOC-IN-C that NOFRA was a legitimate target as it housed officer of IN and the status of NOFRA was that of Barracks. NOFRA means- Naval Officers families Residential Acommodation.
My idea was clear, ships can't sail without men. Hit the men, ships will be idle and take them out in second strike when their weapons are not even manned as all thr men will be busy saving and running around to save thr wife and children. Create mayhem in enemy ranks and then eat them up like chicken tangadi. But I am a pure veggie, never ever even tasted meat. I love to eat the brains and the men alive.

 

[roma]

There is no guarantee international pressure will work if China decided to invade India.
What's the guarantee the fight for resources won't go nuclear or even a limited war?
I would prefer we don't go to war, but I would also prefer not be be caught with our pants down when it happens.

forget about international community - they are unlikely to help in time an will give too little too late by which time we would have lost considerable amounts

we should go for all out production of various strengths of nukes including low yield nukes which approximate radiation weapons and varying missile ranges ---submarine launched nukes --- long range, long duration stealth submarines and show the WILL to use them - the willingness to go all out - go for broke

 

[sesha_maruthi27]

Will Russia give any sort of support to INDIA if at all China attacks India?