Debate: Countering the PLAAF

[arnabmit]

Multi-platform debate on what we have/will have vs. what the PLAAF has/will have. Also, what are the platforms we might acquire to successfully challenge the PLAAF superiority in numbers.

 

[Srinivas_K]

1) Chinese jets cannot take off from Tibet Plateau with full load , once they are airborne with weapons they have to refuel the jets.
This can be used as an advantage by India, if India installs powerful radars to pick up the PLAAF activities in advanvce.

2) Brahmos Missiles can take out the airbases in Tibet as well as supply lines.

3) PLAAF relies on numbers, so to counter this type of threat More number of SAMs, Manpads and anti aircraft guns should be deployed all along the India-Tibetan Border.

4) India must establish production lines of Single engine interceptors like LCA and MIG 21 Bisons and should enhance the capabilities of producing more in number so that IAF can have more number of fighters at its disposal just in case.

5) Since India is Defending against PLAAF, IAF has the advantage of Ground based RADARS, AWACS and RADAR guidance from air dominance fighters like Su 30 MKI.
The above three can guide smaller fighters like LCA and MIG 21 Bison who lack good radar capabilities, through secure links.
Small fighters with low RCS can become surprise attack for the adversary.

6) Deploy 3 or 4 squadrons of Rafale.
This fighter gives huge technological edge for IAF over PLAAF.

 

[arnabmit]

Let's face it. We simply cannot afford Rafale now or in the near future, unless we do some magic and achieve 9-10% GDP growth, Rupee evaluation, and CA surplus.

Also the mid-evaluation change in selection parameters and the ex-Dassault head being arrested for defence scams, Rafale might just change from being the "Mother of all defence deals" to the "Mother of all defence scams".

Typhoon is equally costly, if not more. F-16 & F-18 are too old airframes and evolutionary dead-ends. We are already making an equivalent to Grippen in Tejas MkII.

When finally FGFA and AMCA will become operational in a decade and a half, they would have to be counter J-20 & J-31.

So how do we counter the JH-7, J-8, J-10, J-11, J-16, which PRC is merrily reproducing faster than jackrabbits? Not to mention the huge numbers of Su-27, Su-30, & Su-35, which alone would definitely outnumber our entire Su-30MKI inventory.

My logic says that we either go for 300 Mig-35 for less than the price of 126 Rafale, or go for 200 Mig-35 + 100 Mig-31M combo.

What do you guys think?

 

[Srinivas_K]

Let's face it. We simply cannot afford Rafale now or in the near future, unless we do some magic and achieve 9-10% GDP growth, Rupee evaluation, and CA surplus.

Also the mid-evaluation change in selection parameters and the ex-Dassault head being arrested for defence scams, Rafale might just change from being the "Mother of all defence deals" to the "Mother of all defence scams".

Typhoon is equally costly, if not more. F-16 & F-18 are too old airframes and evolutionary dead-ends. We are already making an equivalent to Grippen in Tejas MkII.

When finally FGFA and AMCA will become operational in a decade and a half, they would have to be counter J-20 & J-31.

So how do we counter the JH-7, J-8, J-10, J-11, J-16, which PRC is merrily reproducing faster than jackrabbits? Not to mention the huge numbers of Su-27, Su-30, & Su-35, which alone would definitely outnumber our entire Su-30MKI inventory.

My logic says that we either go for 300 Mig-35 for less than the price of 126 Rafale, or go for 200 Mig-35 + 100 Mig-31M combo.

What do you guys think?

India is not in shortage of funds regarding Rafale deal, India will sign the deal soon.

Instead of going for MIG 35 India should establish single engine cheaper interceptors like LCA so that these can be produced in large number in case of PLAAF threat.

MIG 35 is a twin engine fighter the choice should be a single engine fighter easy to maintain,easy to produce and cost effective.

 

[captonjohn]

I believe in case of confirmed possible invasion intel from China a preemptive strike on their airbases would delay their plans and give a message that we are not sitting and waiting for them but we are coming for them if they attack.

 

[arnabmit]

Whoever crosses the IB first is the aggressor, and India is never the aggressor. Not to mention that PRC has much superior SAM systems than us, and much more capable of using standoff weapons in great volumes.

I believe in case of confirmed possible invasion intel from China a preemptive strike on their airbases would delay their plans and give a message that we are not sitting and waiting for them but we are coming for them if they attack.

 

[arnabmit]

@Kunal Biswas @p2prada @ersakthivel @pmaitra @DivineHeretic and others: Please give your observations.

 

[Kunal Biswas]

Lets keep focus on what we have NOT what we will have ..........

Take present not future and then make a proper strategy ..

 

[Kunal Biswas]

1. For the first, Find out location of PLAAF bases close to India ..

2. Then find out what kind of logistic support these bases have ..

3. Then find what kind of aircraft can operate from these bases and there positive and negative point with respect to terrain ..

4. Find out what kind of conventional wepion can be used against these bases and there logistic chain ..

 

[Yusuf]

Indian defence budget will not cross 100 billion in the next 5 years.

 

[p2prada]

Indian defence budget will not cross 100 billion in the next 5 years.

Even with defence budget growth rate of 10% we will take more than 10 years to reach $100 Billion. But I am not taking exchange rate fluctuations into account.

China would easily have an official budget of $300 Billion and a black budget of a potential $500 Billion with the same growth within the same time period.

The difference between India and China is slowly turning into the difference between India and Pakistan in terms of budget. If we are throwing money at each other, then we are completely outclassed. Right now, the difference is not much. $35 Billion and $120 Billion is roughly the same ratio as $100 Billion and $500 Billion, but in time the $500 Billion will buy more than what $120 Billion will buy today.

And in 10 years we will still be dependent on imports while China will be making world class stuff at home.

 

[arnabmit]

Dada, we already have other threads where there have been lots of discussion on current capabilities. I created this thread to discuss future scenarios based on possible acquisitions.

Lets keep focus on what we have NOT what we will have ..........

Take present not future and then make a proper strategy ..

 

[sayareakd]

countering PLAAF, we have to raise the stake of the game, like let the China know that if they use PLAAF then we will reply in kind and will not hesitate to use nukes. For that we have to put some of the A5, A4 and rest of the agni series on the open and point towards China and then keep moving them, that will deter PLAAF. As any attack from PLAAF will be join in by PAF..................

 

[Srinivas_K]

Indian defence budget will not cross 100 billion in the next 5 years.

India spends 2.5 % of its GDP on defense

Going by the predictions that Indian economy will close to 4.7 Trillion at least by 2020.

By then India will be able to spend close to 100 Billion on defense, Based on the situation in Asia and the rise of china. It is safe to say that India will spend more than 100 Billion on defense.

 

[TrueSpirit1]

And in 10 years we will still be dependent on imports while China will be making world class stuff at home.

And you still want India to continue importing & put an end to indigenous programs. The Irony

 

[Kunal Biswas]

There are certain things are clear for near future ..

1. We will have Tejas in mass ..
2. We will have Super MKI ..
3. We will have More Akash SAM in mass ..
4. We will have DRDO AWACS in numbers ..
5. We will have more Garuda SF ..

The main objective of IAF is to Secure Indian Skies and some portion of TAR, Hitting enemy inside will be the job of Brhamos and Prahaar ..

Dada, we already have other threads where there have been lots of discussion on current capabilities. I created this thread to discuss future scenarios based on possible acquisitions.

 

[bengalraider]

Let me elaborate a possible strategy on what Kunal has said and try to keep this post to facts, i believe there is only so much we can do if there is a major Indo-china conflict within the next 4-5 years.This post does not take into account a possible BM strike on Delhi .

1) Move all or most of the rumored 6-10 S-300 class systems we are supposed to currently possess from acting as a BM shield for the NCR and retask them to provide aircover for strategically important airbases like Bagdogra ,Agra and Kalaikunda.Use the green pines to provide a long range birds eye view into china.
2) Move at least one and if possible two of the deployed BRAHMOS LACM regiments one each to the NE and Kashmir.
3)Infiltrate the SFF into TIbet and use it to disrupt operations at PLAAF airbases by using light mortars to bomb airbases from safe distances away and if possible use manpads against transport aircraft leaving or arriving.
4)Move as many Sukhois into protected safe bases as possible while deploying other aircraft like the Mig-21's to CAP roles above cities and other bases.
5)try and use diplomatic options like having the Japanese rattle their spears a bit more to make the Chinese keep substantial numbers of aircraft focused on Taiwan and japan.

At the moment we simply do not have an option of hitting Chinese assets inside the TAR using aircraft, simply put there are way too many S-300 class systems deployed as an Iron wall to deter our aircraft, the only way i see is to have the IAF play a defensive role protecting Indian assets while we use sytems like the Harpy and Harop to try and damage/destroy as many Chinese air defenses as we can only when we have created an ingress route can we begin to take the offense in.

 

[arnabmit]

But the question is how to maintain arial dominance over our skies once PLAAF invades.

Tejas can maybe take on J-10 and win with 2:1 or 3:2 ratio. But PLAAF has almost 3 times the number of Su-27+Su-30MKK+J-11+J-16 than we have Su-30MKI+Super-30.

By the time we have FGFA, PLAAF will have more J-20. By the time we have AMCA, PLAAF will have more J-31.

We have to achieve sqadron strength of 42 minimum, but 48 might be better.

So which platform should we go for to make up 42-48 sqadrons, apart from he MKI & Tejas being inducted?

Also, we do not have any answer for their J-8. That is why I said maybe we should go for 5-6 squadrons of Mig-31M.

And, the number of deep penetration platforms like our Jaguars and Mig-29UPG are too old and too few. Whereas PLAAF have many squadrons of JH-7. That is why I said that we should scrap MMRCA and go for 10 squadrons of Mig-35.

With 5-6 squadrons of Mig-31M and 10 squadrons of Mig-35, we will get good parity with PLAAF, and at much lesser cost than 126 Rafales.

There are certain things are clear for near future ..

1. We will have Tejas in mass ..
2. We will have Super MKI ..
3. We will have More Akash SAM in mass ..
4. We will have DRDO AWACS in numbers ..
5. We will have more Garuda SF ..

The main objective of IAF is to Secure Indian Skies and some portion of TAR, Hitting enemy inside will be the job of Brhamos and Prahaar ..

 

[bengalraider]

In the future if we do not buck up we will have a very difficult time no matter how many Rafales or Tejas we buy, the Chinese have started industrial scale production of the most deadly weapon for us in the case of any future conflict. i speak of the CJ-10 "Longsword LACM". The sheer 2500km range of this missile makes it the biggest threat to Indian airbases in a long time.

 

[Yusuf]

I wrote this on our front page http://defenceforumindia.com/india-has-to-consider-its-security-policy-more-seriously-2037

It should make sense given the scenario we are considering where the military imbalance between China and India grows dramatically. Someone mentioned we should get Japan to take out a few spears to keep Chinese jets on its east coast. Why would Japan do that unless they are under treaty obligation which means India will help Japan if its attacked.

Throw in this with a two front threat and the scenario is gloomy. India does need a security alliance.