pmaitra
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Will 'Chindia' rule the world in 2050, or America after all?
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
10:05AM GMT 28 Feb 2011
Telegraph UK
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
10:05AM GMT 28 Feb 2011
Telegraph UK
With a small tweak in assumptions and the inexorable force of compound arithmetic, Citigroup and HSBC have come up with radically different pictures of what the world will look like in 2050.
Source: Will 'Chindia' rule the world in 2050, or America after all? - TelegraphThe Muslim powerhouse of Indonesia will alone match the combined GDP of Germany, France, Italy, and Britain by mid-century.
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The economies of China and India will together be four times as large as the United States, restoring the historic order of Asian dominance before Europe's navies burst on the scene in the 16th Century.
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Catch-up countries merely need to keep reforms on track, open markets, "don't be unlucky, and don't blow it", and let convergence theory do the work for them.
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Having rid themselves of calamitous nonsense – Maoism, the Hindu model, and other variants of central planning or autarky – and having at last achieved a "threshold level" of law and governance, nothing should stop them, or so goes the argument.
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Chimerica, not Chindia, form the G2, towering over all others in global condominium. Americans prosper with a fertility rate of 2.1, high enough to shield them from the sort of demographic collapse closing in on Asia and Europe. Beijing and Shanghai are 1.0, Korea is 1.1, Singapore 1.2, Germany 1.3, Poland 1.3, Italy 1.4 and Russia 1.4.
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Americans remain three times richer than the Chinese in 2050. The US economy still outstrips India by two-and-a-half times.
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Mr Magnus is scathing about the "muddled thinking" of those who fall for BRICs hysteria, or who succumb to the facile conclusion that the global credit crisis finished the West and served as catalyst for a permanent hand-over to Asia.