What will China look like after "10,000 dollar era"?

[badguy2000]

In 2009, CHinese nominal GDP should be about 5 trillion USD and Chinese per capital nominal GDP should be about 4000 USD.

According to the experience of Japan, S.korea,Taiwan and other countries , A rapidly-developing economy such as CHina might promote its per capital nominal GDP from 4000 USD to 10000 USD in less 10 years,due to the 3 big factors: real high growth, currency appreciation and inflation.

Fox example, S.korea promoted its per capital nomonal GDP from 4000 USD to 10000 USD in 7 years( 1988-1995). Taiwanese promoted its nominal pe capital GDP from 4000 USD to 10000 USD in 7 years too(1984-1991).


So, it is quite realistic and possible that CHinese per capital nominal GDP might be about 10000 USD in 2015 or so.

then ,guy ,just imagine when 1.3 billion(maybe 1.4 billion) CHinese leap into " 10,000 USD era",

What will CHinese life lbe like?
What will the world be like?

 

[badguy2000]

here is my imagination of CHina after 10,000 USD era

A. Chinese life quality during 10,000 USD era
1. Ordinary Chinese can afford modern toys such as cars ,household appliances more easily than now.

2. CHinese service cost will rise much and the shortage of labour will appear in CHina. ordinary CHinese white collars will find it harder to afford CHinese nannies. it will cost much more to have a dinner in Chinese restaurants than now.
Besides, foreign labours will poured into CHina,from less developed countries.

3. the price of houses in CHinese cities will keep rocketing in the coming decades and young CHinese might find it harder and harder to buy their own houses.

4. the real Chinese life quality will be quite like the life quality in CHinese grade A cities such as SHanghai and Beijing. BTW, the per nominal captial GDP of most Chinese grade A cities now is already about 10,000 USD.

5. CHinese infrastructure will be better than USA. CHinese high speed railway net will be completed . its expressways length will have supass USA . Ordinary Chinese might arrive any corner of China on high speed railway in 10 hours.

6. the life rhythm of ordinary CHinese will be faster than now.

7. most CHinese ( I think maybe 60%+ of CHinese) will live in CHinese urban areas.

8. CHinese social security system will cover not only urban CHinese ,but also rural CHinese. ordinay CHinese can have unemployment security ,basic medical care security and pension,whether they live in urban china or rural china.

9.young CHinese in Chinese cities will face more pressues than now,because it is almost impossible for them to buy a house in CHinese cities.


10. Almost 100% of CHinese senior middle school students will have chance to study in universities,but CHinese university graduates will find it harder to find decent positions .

 

[badguy2000]

B.China in the world after 10,000 USD era.

1. CHina will be a real neck and neck rival of USA and EU( if luckies euroepan will no quarrel with each other any more),because in 2015, CHina's nominal GDP will be about 14 trillion USD,just a bit less than USA and EU.

2. ASEAN will be absorbed by CHinese economy

3. the world will be ruled by G3( USA ,China and EU), if Europeans can be really united.
Japan, Russia and India will be left in the second class coach by G3
otherwise, UK,France and German will have to stay in the second class coach with Japan,Russia and India .


4.PLA will set up oversea military bases ,in order to protect Chinese sea lanes

 

[Armand2REP]

Chinese nominal GDP per capita will never hit $10,000 until consumer spending increases. The trend has seen a drastic decrease.

 

[badguy2000]

Chinese nominal GDP per capita will never hit $10,000 until consumer spending increases. The trend has seen a drastic decrease.

BTW, CHiese car sales has already surpass USA and become global NO.1

and I am sure that in 3 years ,the auto sales in CHina will surpass the combined auto sale of USA+EU+Japan.

 

[Armand2REP]

BTW, CHiese car sales has already surpass USA and become global NO.1

and I am sure that in 3 years ,the auto sales in CHina will surpass the combined auto sale of USA+EU+Japan.

First of all, you hardly sell cars, you give them away with $4,500 rebates. It probably costs that much just to make it then add another 20% tax credit and you just gave it away. Secondly, you only have 30 million or so cars on the road and you have the worst accident rate and road/bridge deficiency on Earth. I dare say your infrastructure can't handle adding 7 million cars per year to it when it handles so poorly what it already has. It also takes petrol to run them so you are just going to be spending your trade surplus on more ME and now Russian oil. Lets also not forget that your railsystem is already highly developed so any future growth expected from building more roads will be minimal. World Banque says 1% of Chinese GDP is lost due to poor infrastructure. 1% is nothing, especially compared to the 6% loss due to pollution. You rexpansion to the roads isn't going to grow your economy, you are already done with that. Now you have to answer the really hard question, what can I invent without being sued?

 

[badguy2000]

First of all, you hardly sell cars, you give them away with $4,500 rebates. It probably costs that much just to make it then add another 20% tax credit and you just gave it away. Secondly, you only have 30 million or so cars on the road and you have the worst accident rate and road/bridge deficiency on Earth. I dare say your infrastructure can't handle adding 7 million cars per year to it when it handles so poorly what it already has. It also takes petrol to run them so you are just going to be spending your trade surplus on more ME and now Russian oil. Lets also not forget that your railsystem is already highly developed so any future growth expected from building more roads will be minimal. World Banque says 1% of Chinese GDP is lost due to poor infrastructure. 1% is nothing, especially compared to the 6% loss due to pollution. You rexpansion to the roads isn't going to grow your economy, you are already done with that. Now you have to answer the really hard question, what can I invent without being sued?

the bold is a evidence that you dont accept that the earth is round.

guy, last year 12 million+ auto were sold in CHina.

I think that in 3 years, that is in 2012, about 30 million autos will be sold in CHina.
now, about 10 million auto are sold in USA every year. while CHinese population is about 4 times more than USA's.

So it is not a surpise at all that 30 million auto are sold in CHina every year.

 

[Armand2REP]

the bold is a evidence that you dont accept that the earth is round.

guy, last year 12 million+ auto were sold in CHina.

I think that in 3 years, that is in 2012, about 30 million autos will be sold in CHina.
now, about 10 million auto are sold in USA every year. while CHinese population is about 4 times more than USA's.

So it is not a surpise at all that 30 million auto are sold in CHina every year.

So you have a 40% increase in auto sales yet oil consumption remains flat? What do you do with your cars, let them rust in your backyard? People too poor to buy petrol?

 

[hitmanjake]

So you have a 40% increase in auto sales yet oil consumption remains flat? What do you do with your cars, let them rust in your backyard? People too poor to buy petrol?

Brother, i think its obvious that those who can afford cars can afford petrol. people will just drive less if petrol becomes too expensive.

 

[amoy]

Such a GDP thing is quite tricky frankly, with RMB appreciation taken into account against USD. G3 sounds too fancy, making no sense for ordinary folks.

There's a tax incentive for small-displacement cars. But pls DON"T regard Chinese as living in an Utopia and the government as a charity org. by alleging mischievously

you give them away with $4,500 rebates. It probably costs that much just to make it then add another 20% tax credit and you just gave it away

But traffic jams are too common in cities. too bad!

 

[LETHALFORCE]

here is my imagination of CHina after 10,000 USD era

A. Chinese life quality during 10,000 USD era
1. Ordinary Chinese can afford modern toys such as cars ,household appliances more easily than now.

2. CHinese service cost will rise much and the shortage of labour will appear in CHina. ordinary CHinese white collars will find it harder to afford CHinese nannies. it will cost much more to have a dinner in Chinese restaurants than now.
Besides, foreign labours will poured into CHina,from less developed countries.

3. the price of houses in CHinese cities will keep rocketing in the coming decades and young CHinese might find it harder and harder to buy their own houses.

4. the real Chinese life quality will be quite like the life quality in CHinese grade A cities such as SHanghai and Beijing. BTW, the per nominal captial GDP of most Chinese grade A cities now is already about 10,000 USD.

5. CHinese infrastructure will be better than USA. CHinese high speed railway net will be completed . its expressways length will have supass USA . Ordinary Chinese might arrive any corner of China on high speed railway in 10 hours.

6. the life rhythm of ordinary CHinese will be faster than now.

7. most CHinese ( I think maybe 60%+ of CHinese) will live in CHinese urban areas.

8. CHinese social security system will cover not only urban CHinese ,but also rural CHinese. ordinay CHinese can have unemployment security ,basic medical care security and pension,whether they live in urban china or rural china.

9.young CHinese in Chinese cities will face more pressues than now,because it is almost impossible for them to buy a house in CHinese cities.


10. Almost 100% of CHinese senior middle school students will have chance to study in universities,but CHinese university graduates will find it harder to find decent positions .

10,000 era will be a new ERA for China for this to happen your GDP would essentally have to double from the current 6,000 era and not many countries have been able to do that quickly and the demographics are not favorable for it to happen quick,regardless when that does happen you will still be far from USA,EU and Japan who are in the 40-50,000 era, and you will be second among the BRIC nations with Brazil first at 11,000 and they may have also went higher by the time you reach 10,000.

 

[Armand2REP]

But traffic jams are too common in cities. too bad!

What do you expect when you have auto drivers scared of hitting bicycles weaving all over the road? With so many accidents it is amasing anyone gets anywhere. Unless there is a traffic cop at intersections, people will do whatever they want tying up traffic further. It isn't that there are too many cars, it is Chinese traffic laws and enforcement are pathetic.

 

[badguy2000]

those "10000 USD countries" today, such as Brazil, Turkey, Russia,and Poland ,are just jokes.


Most Chinese tourist that have been to those countries don't think that the people in Brazil, Poland, Russia and Turky have better life quality than CHinese people.

"Shanghaiese salary, but Germany price" is the exact reflection of the people life quality in those countries.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

those "10000 USD countries" today, such as Brazil, Turkey, Russia,and Poland ,are just jokes.


Most Chinese tourist that have been to those countries don't think that the people in Brazil, Poland, Russia and Turky have better life quality than CHinese people.

"Shanghaiese salary, but Germany price" is the exact reflection of the people life quality in those countries.

if these countries are a joke today at 10,000 then china must be a bigger joke at 6,000.

 

[nitesh]

A fantasy thread closed