Turkey: Collapse or Secularism?

Tshering22

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Turkey is on it's way to becoming a failed state just like it's islamic country brother Pakistan. Just wait and watch and mark my words! I have a strong feeling that it will happen from my Personal Perspective! Let's see what the future holds. Turkey's economy is getting fucked day by day! And progress is being made!
Not really. Despite our jokes here and Erdogan making a mockery out of his country's economy, Turks are nothing like that. I have done several projects there and seen that people there prefer to be more European than Middle Eastern any day. Unless you are in some Tier-2/3 town with semi-literate herders, almost all Turks want to live like Europeans. Islam to them is the same way as Christianity is to a modern European - just namesake and an icon from the past.

The one amazing thing about Turks is their sense of nationhood - it is phenomenal. They don't fear guns, tanks, etc., and do not tolerate nonsense like how we Indians do. If we swapped them with Indians between 2004-2014, there would have been armed attacks on government ministers, MLAs, MPs, and whatnots for compromising the country.

Long story short, Turkish people will revolt against Erdogan once it starts hitting their wallets more seriously and the Ottoman Sultan will have to leave. They won't let it become a Lebanon.
 

Super Flanker

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Not really. Despite our jokes here and Erdogan making a mockery out of his country's economy, Turks are nothing like that. I have done several projects there and seen that people there prefer to be more European than Middle Eastern any day. Unless you are in some Tier-2/3 town with semi-literate herders, almost all Turks want to live like Europeans. Islam to them is the same way as Christianity is to a modern European - just namesake and an icon from the past.

The one amazing thing about Turks is their sense of nationhood - it is phenomenal. They don't fear guns, tanks, etc., and do not tolerate nonsense like how we Indians do. If we swapped them with Indians between 2004-2014, there would have been armed attacks on government ministers, MLAs, MPs, and whatnots for compromising the country.

Long story short, Turkish people will revolt against Erdogan once it starts hitting their wallets more seriously and the Ottoman Sultan will have to leave. They won't let it become a Lebanon.
Exactly 😎.... Erdogand marne wala hai turkey ki gand🐖💨🇹🇷
 

IndianSpiderman

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Turkey is a middle income country right? It was never 'high' income which starts around $20K/pa. I am curious to know what school of economics is the man following. Turkey is going the Lebanon way. If he continues for the rest of his term, he will end up destroying his country (apparently the elections are due in 2023).

Chances are that Al Germany with its new commie Chancellor will step in to save the Turkish economy to avoid a deluge of refugees. Germany has made heavy commercial investments in the Turkish economy, including allowing Turkish investors to borrow freely from German banks.

It is a good country & at one time was trying its best to get close to us under former PM, Bulent Ecevit.

He was the first and only Turkish PM to take an official neutral stand on Jammu & Kashmir during ABV government & promoted Indo-Turkish relations. But then again, he was from the opposition CHP which was more concerned about economy, nationalism, security & further integration into the European Union.
I looked up "high income countries", and world bank puts the minimum threshold for high-income countries at an oddly specific $12,696 🤪.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy

Turkey's nominal per capita income was more than 12k in 2013 (albeit just for a year). Turkey seems to have enjoyed phenomenal growth between 2000 and 2008, but it all came crashing down post 2013. It fell for the lure of spectacular growth at the expense of sound economic fundamentals as was the case with most developing countries back then, including India under the UPA. The global economic supercycle during the first decade of the millenium was a squandered opportunity for most developing countries to set a foundation for meaningful, long-term growth because such measures are painstaking, and they don't win you elections. It's what Modi's been attempting to do and getting brickbats for it.
 

Tshering22

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View attachment 125888

Is there any case of a country benefitting from inflation, what if you produce of basic needs in house and export a lot, say in case of turkey drones etc.? Can it benefit their defense exports?

China is such example?
Bhai sahab, Turkey doesn't make a fraction of the goods that Chinese make. Sure, they manufacture a lot more than most European countries (sans Germany), but they don't do it for high-end, high value goods that the European market is normally known for.

Tell me, how many Vestel/Aselsan/Beko/Geliyoo products do you see flying off the shelves in the EU? probably in some central and Eastern European states like Czechia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc. But these are not high-spending customers. The typical high spending customers are mainly Germany, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Monaco, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, Austria and Finland.

These countries have massive imports of less-value products at a lower cost from China than Turkey, despite the distance of travel of the imports. Turkey competing against China is not at all viable as it would be driven into the ground, unless it has a specific niche, like say, processed Turkish food products that are unique to its land. Consumer electronics, processors, semi-conductors, hardware, toys, utensils, etc., are Chinese forte. The remaining such as cars, buses, trucks, heavy machinery, precision engineering parts, etc. are already the domain of the leading European economies.

Erdogan's best bet at this time is to shoot down the inflation and focus on repairing the damage he caused in his Ottoman Khalifa phase in the last 2 years. Try to rebuild confidence with countries that he messed up big time and offer them an assured trade supply at lower rates to facilitate exports.
 

Tshering22

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Vestel better start investing in the horse and camel breeding business because vehicles will soon stop and Turks will be riding horses like the Ottoman Empire:pound:.

The Khalifa really doesn't know when to stop, does he? Islam is going to take Turkey back to the 7th century.

5 things to know about Erdogan’s plan to shore up Turkey’s lira

Turkey’s president unveiled an emergency plan late on Monday to protect people with lira deposits against wild swings in the currency’s value.

1. How does the new tool work?

The Treasury will make up for losses incurred by holders of lira deposits should the lira’s declines against hard currencies exceed bank interest rates.
For example, if banks pay 15% for one-year lira deposits but the currency depreciates 20% against the dollar in the same period, the Treasury – that is, taxpayers – would pay deposit-holders the differential. The instrument will apply for individuals holding lira deposit accounts with maturities between three to 12 months. The minimum interest rate will be the central bank’s benchmark rate and no withholding tax will be implemented.

2. How is it going to help the lira to appreciate?

If people who hold deposits in hard currencies decide to switch to the lira, that may help the Turkish currency curb losses that are fueling inflation and losing Erdogan support even among his most loyal voters. More than half of all deposits in the Turkish banking system are in hard currencies, according to banking watchdog data. Yet because the average maturity of all accounts is only several weeks, it is unlikely that they will be converted en masse into new lira deposits.

3. What does it mean for inflation and public finances?

Potentially, the Treasury takes on foreign-currency risk of 3.3 trillion liras ($265 billion) now deposited in retail banking accounts. If the lira depreciates beyond deposit rates, that would impose a burden on the budget. If the central bank prints money to make up the difference, then inflation would spike.

4. Does this plan address the crux of the problem?

While the worst may be over for the lira for now, with some confidence restored among retail depositors, “until interest rates provide a credible anchor against inflation, the lira will tend to be volatile and subject to downward pressure,” said Todd Schubert, head of fixed-income research at Bank of Singapore Ltd. Much will also depend on whether depositors believe the policy can actually be implemented, according to Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. “Right now, Turkish institutions don’t have a ton of credibility, so there may be challenges getting lira depositors on board,” McKenna said.

5. What could cause it to fall apart?

If the new instrument fails, then the Treasury would have to find the money to compensate holders of lira deposits for their losses. The central bank, in turn, will likely print money, further undermining the lira, according to Wolfango Piccoli, the co-president of the Teneo consultancy. And if the new tool manages to stabilize the lira, the real exchange rate will rise, undermining the supposed competitiveness from a weaker currency that is key to boosting Turkey’s exports, a pillar of the government’s new economic model, he said.
 

Tshering22

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Seems like this might bring some relief to the common Turks reeling from the blow.

Turkey's lira extends rebound, gains another 12% against greenback

The Turkish lira extended its stunning rally from record lows earlier in the week after the government launched a series of measures to prop up the currency.

The lira firmed another 12% to 10.85 against the dollar, taking its overall weekly gains to more than 40% and putting it on course for the best weekly showing ever, although in less liquid holiday markets.

The currency got a boost this week after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the government and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) would guarantee certain local currency deposits against foreign exchange (FX) depreciation losses.

Meanwhile, the lira was also stronger Thursday in newly announced parity rates against foreign currencies, rates released every morning by the CBRT for FX-protected lira deposit accounts. The U.S. dollar-Turkish lira exchange rate was 11.64 for buying and 11.66 for selling, down from 12.34 and 12.37, respectively, on Wednesday. According to the bank, euro rates were 13.18 for buying and 13.21 for selling, falling from 13.91 and 13.94.

The bank announced the first set of rates Wednesday.

Under the new system, comparing the foreign exchange rates at the beginning and at the end of the maturity of resident real persons' accounts, the central bank will pay the difference, whichever is higher, to depositors.
The depositors will receive the principal and interest-profit share regardless of the exchange rates.
 

Tshering22

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'Shopping like crazy': An inflated lira sees neighbors flock to Turkey

Bulgarian shoppers are crossing Turkey’s western border in packed cars and buses, taking advantage of a declining Turkish lira to enjoy their own shopping sprees. Their first stop is the currency exchange, and then it's off to the markets and grocery stores in the north-western Turkish city of Edirne. On Christmas Eve, the city's Turkish marketplace was packed with shoppers from Bulgaria.

Hatice Ahmedova said she left at 3 am to get on a bus that would take her over the border to Edirne, exchanged 200 Bulgarian levs – a little more than 100 euros – to get 1,150 Turkish liras, and began shopping.
Gulfiye Osinova, 60, was also there to find gifts for her children and grandchildren, saying that Bulgaria was “much more expensive.” Turkey is in the throes of an economic crisis with official inflation figures above 21 percent, affecting the prices of food, fuel, and household items. But for the Bulgarian shoppers, the grocery stores are a bargain, and they leave the country with their boots packed.

The lira has experienced its most volatile month in December, declining almost every day and finally hitting an all-time low of 20.04 against the euro on December 20, when Turkey’s currency lost more than 60 percent of its value against the European currency this year. Tourists have benefited from this currency decline.

The lira has since rebounded after Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced new financial tools to protect lira deposits against currency fluctuations and closed the week at 12.65 against the euro.
In a televised interview last Friday for the local A Haber TV station, Erdoğan said that the rebound of lira’s value shows that “Turkish people have put their trust in Turkey’s new economic system”. “Our citizens now have two assurances: one from the Turkish Central Bank and the other from the Treasury. Therefore, there will be no loss for our citizens,” Erdoğan stated. Erdoğan also said Turkey is committed to free-market principles and promised that the measures will further stabilize the currency. “God willing, stabilization in the value of foreign currencies against the Turkish lira will be realized soon,” Erdoğan added.

Bülent Reisoğlu, the president of the Ulus bazaar cooperative in Edirne, said the number of foreigners has quadrupled over the past few weeks. “Parking lots are filled with Bulgarian cars, it has become almost impossible to see Edirne or Istanbul license plates," he said. “[They] are shopping as if they are crazed, not knowing what they are buying and buying five or ten of the same with the logic of selling it or thinking they won’t find these again.”

Shoppers were also coming from neighboring Greece, converting euros into lira. Despite the lira’s rally in the past week, the Turkish national currency has still lost nearly 40 percent of its value this year, triggered by Erdoğan’s insistence on lowering interest rates, which currently stand at 14 percent. Established economic theory says high inflation can be lowered by raising interest rates but Erdoğan argues otherwise.

Under his new economic program, Erdoğan wants cheap credit, high exports, and big growth.
With Turks waiting for bread in long lines in the cold this month, the decline of their buying power amid price hikes has been painfully visible. Erdoğan has urged Turkish businesses to lower their prices as the lira stabilizes but there is no sign yet anything will slow down the Bulgarian shoppers in Edirne anytime soon.
Looks like Turkish malls and shops are able to generate a lot of sales from foreign buyers coming in from the EU countries. Greeks and Bulgarians have been shopping a lot due to the fall in the currency. This could relieve some stress for the shopkeepers.
 

KurtisBrian

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36% ?!

What is he doing?

View attachment 129875
He is doing what thieves do, stealing and rewarding thieves. People used to steal from me. Some nice folks from India helped me out. Not so easy to steal from me anymore. Could have been paying, should have been paying, but thieves prefer to steal. So like the movie says, Age of Extinction.
 

asaffronladoftherisingsun

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He is doing what thieves do, stealing and rewarding thieves. People used to steal from me. Some nice folks from India helped me out. Not so easy to steal from me anymore. Could have been paying, should have been paying, but thieves prefer to steal. So like the movie says, Age of Extinction.
Fyi the erdog inserted islame for keeping interest rates low.
 

Jambudweepa

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4. India can tie up with IRGC to operate against Turkish MIT. Basically all these options can help India to counter Turkish threat at sub-conventional domain with better effect. However unless India develop its capabilities to operate in grey zone; we've to face hot border.
 

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