Tracking Indian Economy till general elections 2019

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

and sir ji we all know where that ended up

Their people already do not want to work!! Give them free monnaaaiieee!

 

[Screambowl]

The same IMF wants India to give guaranteed income!!

At least implement it in the west first!

guaranteed income? LOL
there is no guaranteed Job and they want to implement guaranteed income.

 

[Project Dharma]

At least implement it in the west first!

(In the context of the West)

What's wrong with guaranteed income if it replaces all the medical and retirement socialized crap that is forced down our throats? There are studies that it will cost less than those schemes to just give everybody a fixed income.

 

[Flame Thrower]

The same IMF wants India to give guaranteed income!!

At least implement it in the west first!

That doesn't mean that we'll make it happen.

I am actually missing the Devil's advocate type from the last few pages.

It's Good to see you. From last few pages everyone report started to show that India is recovering at a faster pace than anticipated, even the IMF did.

So do you care to point out the "missing dark spots" like you did with Demo and GST. Or would you care to wait till the Q2 results are out.

 

[indiatester]

(In the context of the West)

What's wrong with guaranteed income if it replaces all the medical and retirement socialized crap that is forced down our throats? There are studies that it will cost less than those schemes to just give everybody a fixed income.

I actually like this concept of guaranteed income. Consider it more like living expenses that we allow our citizens to ensure basic living just because they exist. Ofcourse enough checks and balances should be had so that ones "income" is not misused either for alcohol or taken by others. More like food stamps in US (actually credit cards now!). That is when any idiot says high hunger index and such crap can be made to shut up.
A very small percentage (a few hundreds) actually deposited to JanDhan accounts should also be debated.

 

[Flame Thrower]

(In the context of the West)

What's wrong with guaranteed income if it replaces all the medical and retirement socialized crap that is forced down our throats? There are studies that it will cost less than those schemes to just give everybody a fixed income.

My friend a lot is wrong with that.

Let me tell you why.

Case 1: No income with benefits

In the West...
Almost each and every govt is providing benefits like free hospital care, free education and some other benefits. You and your family has no food to eat but covered with benefits. To feed your family and get your children educated, you'll be forced to work. Look for job no matter what it is. Yes, you'll find one maybe small enough to feed your children. But you'll work.

Case 2: Income with no benefits.

In this case you have no medical benefits, you need to pay fee for your children...but you'll get money. That money maybe enough to feed your children and send them to school so no threat forcing you to work. So you'll not panic if there is no work, you might look for job with higher pay. But when someone is sick....you may not be able to pay hospital bills. No higher education to your children. The situation will be far worse than no income with benefits.

I believe that this is some kind preparation to future when most of the jobs would be taken by machines and nearly half of the workforce can't get any jobs.

 

[Project Dharma]

My friend a lot is wrong with that.

Let me tell you why.

Case 1: No income with benefits

In the West...
Almost each and every govt is providing benefits like free hospital care, free education and some other benefits. You and your family has no food to eat but covered with benefits. To feed your family and get your children educated, you'll be forced to work. Look for job no matter what it is. Yes, you'll find one maybe small enough to feed your children. But you'll work.

Case 2: Income with no benefits.

In this case you have no medical benefits, you need to pay fee for your children...but you'll get money. That money maybe enough to feed your children and send them to school so no threat forcing you to work. So you'll not panic if there is no work, you might look for job with higher pay. But when someone is sick....you may not be able to pay hospital bills. No higher education to your children. The situation will be far worse than no income with benefits.

I believe that this is some kind preparation to future when most of the jobs would be taken by machines and nearly half of the workforce can't get any jobs.

Catastrophic healthcare policies exist. So when healthcare exceeds a certain amount, they cover everything in excess. Obamacare already makes it mandatory to have insurance, the universal basic income will let people chose a policy that works for them.

Also, schooling in public schools is free and higher education is not a right even though community college education is almost free.

 

[sorcerer]

Indian economy on 'very solid track': IMF chief Christine Lagarde

Describing the two major recent reforms in India - demonetisation and Goods and Services Tax (GST) - as a monumental effort, Lagarde said it is hardly surprising that there "is a little bit of a short-term slowdown" as a result.

"Turning to India...we have slightly downgraded India; but we believe that India is for the medium and long-term on a growth track that is much more solid as a result of the structural reforms that have been conducted in India in the last couple of years," IMF Managing Director Lagarde said.


"But for the medium term, we see a very solid track ahead for the Indian

economy
," she said to a question on India.

"We very much hope that the combination of fiscal, because the deficit has been reduced, inflation has been down significantly, and the structural reforms will actually deliver the jobs that the Indian population, particularly the young Indian people expect in the future," Lagarde said.'''


Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61087784.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst



NOTE: This NEWS ARTICLE is Not RAGA BOY BAND APPROVED!!!!!!!

Sad...Raga Boy Band is considered much better in economics that IMF and their data efforts.

 

[sorcerer]

Slowdown bottomed out, GDP likely to grow 7 pc in FY18: Niti Aayog

"I think by the time you come to the first quarter of 2018, you will see a stronger recovery, and fiscal 2018-19 will be the much better year than fiscal 2017-18. And that will then continue because it will on much more sustained basis," he said adding that growth will be about 6.9-7 per cent in the current fiscal year.

"In the next fiscal year, the growth would be about 7.5 per cent," Kumar said in an interview.

The Niti Aayog vice chairman said the country did very well from 2007-13 and the downward cycle started in 2013-14, mainly because of spurge in lending to undeserving projects since 2007.

"The high economic growth between 2007-13 was on the basis of huge increase in loans and spurge in private debt for which there was zero control. That was given by the banking sector to the most undeserving cases (projects) and on completely false assumptions," he observed.


Noting that growth stalled after 2013 because of policy stance, Kumar said, "As soon as that happened, all the debt began to becoming bad and therefore downward spiral started."

"My considered view and gut feeling is that, this downward cycle has now bottomed out in July," he asserted.



Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61087891.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Oh Well!!!

 

[sorcerer]

India's 4 metros can gain US$ 7.2 bn/yr on digital payment boost


PTI: October 13, 2017

New Delhi, Oct 12: Four metro cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai can reap benefits of USD 7.2 billion annually by increasing payments through digital means, says a study report by global financial services major Visa.

The study conducted by Roubini ThoughtLab and commissioned by Visa examined the economic impact of increasing use of digital payments in major cities around the world including these four Indian cities.

"The study estimates that relying more on electronic payments, such as cards and mobile payments, could yield a net benefit of up to USD 470 billion per year across the 100 cities studied roughly equivalent to 3 per cent of the average GDP for these cities," Visa said a release.

Mumbai, with a population of 19,547,000 and GDP of USD 104.1 billion, could gain USD 2.9 billion annual net benefits.


Delhi can gain USD 2.2 billion (GDP USD 74.4 billion);

Bangalore USD 1.3 billion (GDP 44.7 billion) and

Chennai can realise benefit of USD 0.8 billion (GDP 30.9 billion), it added.

"Increased use of digital payments could potentially save time for consumers and businesses, reduce cash related crime, increase business sales, bring about greater efficiencies, and increase tax revenues for governments," said T R Ramachandran, VISA group Country Manager for India.

He said a greater adoption of digital payments could boost stakeholders productivity by reducing the amount of time spent on payment related activities.

"This boost can act as a catalyst to further economic activity, increasing GDP growth, creating additional jobs and further bumping up wages and productivity catalytic impacts."

As cities increase use of digital payments, the positive impacts can extend beyond financial benefits to consumers, businesses, and government, said the study.

The shift to digital payments also may have a catalytic effect on the city's overall economic performance, including GDP, employment, wage, and productivity growth, it added.

Lou Celi, Head of Roubini ThoughtLab, said: "The use of digital technologies from smart phones and wearables to artificial intelligence and driverless cars is rapidly transforming how city dwellers shop, travel, and live."

However, without a firm foundation in electronic payments, cities will not be able to fully capture their digital future, he added.

Economics and evidence-based research firm Roubini ThoughtLab surveyed 3,000 consumers and 900 businesses across six cities --Tokyo, Chicago, Stockholm, Sao Paolo, Bangkok and Lagos-- in 2016, representing different levels of digital payments maturity.

The surveys examined use, acceptance and cost-benefit impact of physical and digital money and extrapolated these survey results based on specific demographic and economic data to another 94 cities around the world.

RAGA BOY BAND PERFORMANCE!!!
BUT this bum knows better about DIGITAL INDIA..

I dont see a strategy, I dont see a clear direction..: For congress party is giving POTENTIAL VISION...which is making them ignorant.

Rahul Gandhi badly TROLLED, misspells Digital India as Connect India !



poor sod!!

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

(In the context of the West)

What's wrong with guaranteed income if it replaces all the medical and retirement socialized crap that is forced down our throats? There are studies that it will cost less than those schemes to just give everybody a fixed income.

Motivation....

% of self-motivated very few. But as robotic age dawns, may be we will resort to it in the beginning.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

That doesn't mean that we'll make it happen.

I am actually missing the Devil's advocate type from the last few pages.

It's Good to see you. From last few pages everyone report started to show that India is recovering at a faster pace than anticipated, even the IMF did.

So do you care to point out the "missing dark spots" like you did with Demo and GST. Or would you care to wait till the Q2 results are out.

IMF and all the world orgs are formalization b**ches!!

I do not need to spell out how IMF recommendations has screwed so many nations, which did not have their own ideas to fix their economy. Formalization is one thing which they want so that their companies can come in and ramp down.

Till I do not see credit lending going up, I don't see economy can move. There is a lot of sand in the wheels which Modi has not touched even with a barge pole. Formal lending through banks is dried up and till the bank books are not cleared, it won't pick up. GoI is merging loser banks with SBI, so I expect SBI to be in a soup as well. In any case, it won't help increase lending because SBI will be cautious and not lend given the number of bad loans which have crept up in its book, thanks to all the undercapitalized banks. And there are many other zombie banks left. If GoI does not buyback their bad loans (i.e. help defaulters get away with bad behavior), they are not going to lend. And given bad conditions, even healthy banks won't lend.

So no formal lending (biggest contributor to lending) ==> no uptick in GDP

__________________________________________________

Forced formalization and demonetization has already sucked up informal channels of lending. So, there won't be uptick either.

___________________________________________________

Stock markets are at all time high and investors are already cautious now. Also, as we near elections, IPOs will go down because of uncertainty and high stock market right now. So, this channel would also not contribute enough lending.

___________________________________________________


Now, million dollar question is- if no one is lending, how will economy grow?

 

[Project Dharma]

Motivation....

% of self-motivated very few. But as robotic age dawns, may be we will resort to it in the beginning.

Yeah, I read your explanation later on. However, I feel it depends on the size of the income. It should be just enough to provide basic food, critical health insurance and rent. If you want a car, or a house or even an iPhone get ready to work. I read that it will cost less than Medicare, Social Security, Food Stamps etc because of the overhead involved in running those programs. And it returns power to the individual instead of the government which I'm always in favor of. As for abuse, I think it is a self fixing problem. Who cares if a guy spends their income on alcohol? They will not eat if they run out of money.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

Yeah, I read your explanation later on. However, I feel it depends on the size of the income. It should be just enough to provide basic food, critical health insurance and rent. If you want a car, or a house or even an iPhone get ready to work. I read that it will cost less than Medicare, Social Security, Food Stamps etc because of the overhead involved in running those programs. And it returns power to the individual instead of the government which I'm always in favor of. As for abuse, I think it is a self fixing problem. Who cares if a guy spends their income on alcohol? They will not eat if they run out of money.

Yeah. No point paying people to run ration shops. Just wire the money!

 

[YagamiLight]

@Khagesh @YagamiLight
How much truth is there in this video?

I abosolutely agree with the video. In theory, the video is spot on.

However , in practice, none of the informal businesses used to pay taxes of any kind till now(Duh, they are informal). That was the only way to make themselves a profit- to stay afloat after accounting for the bribes they had to pay to the police and such. But then, when you make them pay the taxes, tit will eat into their very margins, because they will be now forced to pay taxes(there is no other go) and they will not be able to stay afloat.

Of course, such taxation wont be a problem in a country like Norway, Sweden or USA, where corruption by babus is not a daily part of life as in India(so much so that every single Sanghi clown, who cries about demonetisation and GST ending corruption, here in India can be accused of having a bribe taking/corruption indulging babu as his blood relative with 100% accuracy) . So what happens is the taxes will force the small businesses to close down,

And of course, if someone is a typical Sanghi clown with no knowledge of basic economics and simply wants to kill the informal sector- swin or perish and such, it might be a good thing. But for the country, it is a deadly thing- it will cause the loss of the company, loss of services to the people which the company provided, loss of jobs to people who were employed by it and of course, there wont be any new taxes from the company which has been closed. Before this kind of forced formalisation, atleast the company running informally provided jobs and livihood to the people involved even when they dint pay any taxes. But now, not only will they not pay taxes, because they have now closed down, it also means they will not be generating jobs, services and so on. The way to fix the problem of tax non compliance is to strike down the bureaucracy and encourage the incentives for formalisation, not increase the risks for formalisation by shoving down GST on the businesses.

This is why I keep telling that the supposed cure for corruption- GST, is actually worse than the disease itself

BTW, I dont oppose GST. I only oppose the rate at which they have implemented it right now.

 

[Nicky G]

IMF and all the world orgs are formalization b**ches!!

I do not need to spell out how IMF recommendations has screwed so many nations, which did not have their own ideas to fix their economy. Formalization is one thing which they want so that their companies can come in and ramp down.

Till I do not see credit lending going up, I don't see economy can move. There is a lot of sand in the wheels which Modi has not touched even with a barge pole. Formal lending through banks is dried up and till the bank books are not cleared, it won't pick up. GoI is merging loser banks with SBI, so I expect SBI to be in a soup as well. In any case, it won't help increase lending because SBI will be cautious and not lend given the number of bad loans which have crept up in its book, thanks to all the undercapitalized banks. And there are many other zombie banks left. If GoI does not buyback their bad loans (i.e. help defaulters get away with bad behavior), they are not going to lend. And given bad conditions, even healthy banks won't lend.

So no formal lending (biggest contributor to lending) ==> no uptick in GDP

__________________________________________________

Forced formalization and demonetization has already sucked up informal channels of lending. So, there won't be uptick either.

___________________________________________________

Stock markets are at all time high and investors are already cautious now. Also, as we near elections, IPOs will go down because of uncertainty and high stock market right now. So, this channel would also not contribute enough lending.

___________________________________________________


Now, million dollar question is- if no one is lending, how will economy grow?

Banks are one part, bonds and NBFCs, the other. In fact, in FY17 the latter lent 65% of new credit.

India's banks were reeling and not lending anyway due to huge pile up of bad, corrupt loans. Cleanup was critical, in fact unavoidable by any sane government.

The point for me is whether all these huge changes along with GST and demo should have been clubbed so close together or spaced out. Both paths have pros and cons, but what I think was the deciding factor was lack of time before the system collapsed.

There are many issues with these reforms but they had to be done, sooner rather than later. Nowhere can such drastic changes be implemented flawlessly, least of all in India. There's enough time to course correct, on things like rate of GST for instance, if there's the will.

Do I think we'll grow at 7% this fiscal? Probably not. We should get there next year though.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

Banks are one part, bonds and NBFCs, the other. In fact, in FY17 the latter lent 65% of new credit.

India's banks were reeling and not lending anyway due to huge pile up of bad, corrupt loans. Cleanup was critical, in fact unavoidable by any sane government.

The point for me is whether all these huge changes along with GST and demo should have been clubbed so close together or spaced out. Both paths have pros and cons, but what I think was the deciding factor was lack of time before the system collapsed.

There are many issues with these reforms but they had to be done, sooner rather than later. Nowhere can such drastic changes be implemented flawlessly, least of all in India. There's enough time to course correct, on things like rate of GST for instance, if there's the will.

Do I think we'll grow at 7% this fiscal? Probably not. We should get there next year though.

I included NBFCs in above when I said informal. NBFC share is up because banks are not lending.



How much is the total credit growth? If it has not grown(seems from bank health), there won't be any growth. Period.

 

[prasadr14]

If Goyal was not ashamed saying what he said, just after an industry leader said what he said, then why would anybody else feel ashamed for any reason.

After seeing the new number the Italian slaves are not ashamed and don't crawl into their holes, only god help the opposition. People certainly won't.

 

[prasadr14]

I have a close friend doing gold business, once a great admirer of Modi and not starch hater because of Demonetize and now GST.

Never paid taxes in his entire life now feeling the burn.

That should tell you whether it's good or bad for the nation.

 

[prohumanity]

Demonetization GST and New Bankrupcy code are making the fraudsters very afraid as old business as usual of Black money will be very very difficult.
I tell you these black money lovers will fight till last drop of black money in their minds....but ..Govt. will prevail and Indian economy will skyrocket after a short term pause.
These reforms are BIG....they are making system clean and transparent ...so ..sit back and ride the roller coaster for now followed by straight upward trajectory.