- Aug 6, 2009
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TIGHTENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
181050Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T3.0 FROM KNES, AND
SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA
AFTER TAU 36. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN,
EGRR AND ECMWF) ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. GFS AND
WBAR ARE LEFT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KAKINADA,
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF INDIA, ALTHOUGH
MAINTAINING TC INTENSITY DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WEAKEN INTO A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT CROSSES INTO BANGLADESH BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z
Cyclone 'Laila' to bring heavy rains to TN
Tue-May 18, 2010
New Delhi / Press Trust of India
Coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are expected to witness heavy rains and very strong winds, as cyclone 'Laila' intensified in the Bay of Bengal about 700 km south-east of Chennai.
"The current environmental conditions and weather models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast," an advisory issued by the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
The weather office has warned that gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph was likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from tonight.
"Fishermen are advised not venture into the open sea," the advisory said citing rough sea conditions.
The weather office said experts were constantly tracking the path of the cyclone and state governments concerned have been informed so that they could plan their response accordingly.
Monsoon watchers were closely monitoring the impact of cyclone Laila on the seasonal rainfall, which began with showers in Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Last year, cyclone Aila had hit parts of Orissa and West Bengal soon after the onset of monsoon and sucked moisture from the atmosphere thereby delaying the progress on the rainfall further.
Heavy to very heavy rain could occur over north Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra in the next 48 hours, the official said. "Sea conditions will be rough along and off the Andhra coast and very rough along and off the north Tamil Nadu coast," the official added. Fishermen have been warned against venturing into the sea.
The energy build-up in the monsoon flow is expected to accelerate once Laila decays. The anticipated temporary slowdown in its progress may not cause any change in the date of onset over Kerala, predicted to be May 30, a scientist said.
Coastal areas of the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh are preparing for the arrival of the first storm of the Bay of Bengal's cyclone season.
At midnight Wednesday, Cyclonic Storm Laila was 120 miles (190 kilometres) northeast of Chennai, and was expected to travel northwards just offshore of the coast before making landfall during Thursday.
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